Thank the Lord Allmighty that we have Trump to save us.
He has to be the most cancerous human being who ever lived.
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Thank the Lord Allmighty that we have Trump to save us.
He has to be the most cancerous human being who ever lived.
Me, my parents and my brothers were planning to see each other tomorrow for my birthday, but since the virus isn't really widespread in my province yet(only a dozen cases that are more to the south), I'll still go. My father is a doctor, so it will be a good time to ask for advices.
But after that, who knows. It might/will be a different story next month for the next family's birthday.
Of course you're both right, economic hardship is harmful as well. But that doesn't mean economies can't adapt to better handle this situation. Just as the way human bodies react to this virus will not remain the same forever, our economic response may also change. People will come up with new ideas, and those ideas will improve the response.
This exact mindset will make the situation much worse in the west than east.
Don't get me wrong, I do agree and I can't see myself staying in my flat even a whole week, let alone months. But if people here keep going out and live their life normally, the spread will be much wider and even with 1% mortality rates will end up with millions elderly people dying. You tell me if that is OK.
Keep in mind they are more exposed than the rest, so they will have more precautions.
you shouldn't go out at all, it' crazy to think that people still go out in public places
Chill.
I don't pretend to know more.
You can't just have a reliable mortality rate using a ratio between known cases and cadualties. It's also true in France. If you go to hospital, they won't test you if your symptoms are light. You will be told to stay at home until you get better. And you won't appear in the statistics. This will be a large part of the cases.
There are restrictions, but nothing severe. Their goal is a controlled transmission to allow the NHS to cope, and keep CFR low. They believe the virus will inevitable spread across the country. So why go full China.
This could backfire if they cant slow the virus transmission, and end up like Italy.
German population is 33% larger and has a much higher percentage of population aged 65 and over than the UK (half as much again - this is the group most likely to need those beds). Such numbers need context.
It's not but it's reality? If the most people are realistically going to isolate for is a couple of weeks you need to time it right. It sucks but I've long accepted that the majority people don't actually care about the ill, disabled or elderly unless they are in their family. I say that as a person who's immunocompromised (I have Crohn's) and have already seen the language that goes around, even here. No ones going to stay in their house for 3-4 months to protect us
Thinking that the UK response may have some sound scientific basis to it, does not negate advice being given elsewhere
Seems pretty obvious to me they're prioritising minimising damage to the economy. Seems like a risky move but who knows, could be the right move.
2 days ago i went to the supermarket, to get some food. Some cheap store brand pasta was sold out, otherwise, everything stocked plenty. Yesterday rumors started that everything will close except grocerie stores and pharmacies. Except the free shit rags that had head lines like "Starting monday, every store will close, full lockdown" and in the text actually mention that grocery stores and pharmacies will stay open. So i was expecting some shit.
Went today early morning again, i usually only buy as much as fits into my messenger bag, 3-4 days maybe. Like, 8:30, store opens at 7:40. Completely packed with people. Queue would go through the whole store. Pasta basically gone, toilet paper, rice. Carts almost spilling over.
I actually saw someone dual wield carts.
Austria.
Went today early morning again, i usually only buy as much as fits into my messenger bag, 3-4 days maybe. Like, 8:30, store opens at 7:40. Completely packed with people. Queue would go through the whole store. Pasta basically gone, toilet paper, rice. Carts almost spilling over.
I actually saw someone dual wield carts.
Austria.
The UK's messaging is all over the place.
Boris and the Chief Medical Guy have the fucking nerve to say that we want the peak to be in this Summer and then "herd immunity" will help.
I guess "herd immunity" sounds great, until you think about it. The only way to get immunity is to get infected, which is literally requires the scenario we specificalyl don't want.
Herd immunity does very little until a large fraction have been infected. It might kick in after several years if we have a long-term "corona becomes a new seasonal flu that hits 10% of people every year" scenario.
If you want herd immunity this year, you'll need 50 million to be infected over summer. We have 100,000 hospital beds total, and the vast majority of those do not have ventillators. That can treat about 500,000 people over summer if we kick out every other patient (beds are typically >90% occupied) and each hospitalised corona patient stays 2-3 weeks. Realistically, maybe we can treat 250,000 in 3 months by kicking out non-emergency patients.
So let's hope no-one gets sick and that only 1% need hospitalisation (it's 50% of cases in Italy, with 10% in an ICU. They're probably underestimating the case load by large factor, but hospitalisation seems likely to be at least 5%).
If the government are really expecting a big peak in summer, then they need to be talking about massive expansions to our bed capacity and staff. Setting up emergency hospitals, converting spare buildings into corona wards for 'mild-to-moderate pneumonia' cases that can't stay at home.
Of course, it's "a marathon not a sprint" and we don't want to "peak too soon", as if we're a bantering dad explaining why he's walking in the charity fun-run.
There is some merit in the "cry wolf" idea, but I wouldn't trust any government models that give quantitative predictions (closing schools would only reduce the peak size by 10-15%). No one has any good data on the size of the "cry wolf" effect under worldwide pandemic conditions. It would be a large factor in a local epidemic where there were no visible deaths - but in a worldwide pandemic with other countries' health systems in total collapse?
Since I am a modeller (though not of epidemics), I am very wary of people quoting modelling results as a way of saying "See, I didn't just pull that number from my arse". What it often means is that someone pulled an input parameter number from their arse and is using the modelling results to sanitise their arse-pull.
For school/nursery closures, I kinda get it. A LOT of nurses are parents, and many are married to doctors. You don't want them staying at home with the kids when the hospitals come under huge pressure. I'm not sure how Italy/France are coping with this.
Closing schools (especially for kids who are too young to look after themselves) will have a huge economical impact and is the kind of thing that you probably can't sustain for long.
For sports arenas, I also kinda get it - but in this case I definitely disagree. The idea is that people will got to the pub to watch the game instead, which provides much better transmission conditions (indoors, with food and drink). 10,000 people in a stadium is arguably not worse than 10,000 people in 500 different pubs.
The travel distances will greatly accelerate distribution through the country - though maybe it's too late for that.
However, for a government that love their fucking "nudge" theory and are scared of the "cry wolf" effect, you really want to shut down large sports events.
Live football has a very small economic impact, but sends a huge message. If the stadiums are empty, everyone starts taking this seriously. It's a huge symbolic statement. Conversely, if they are open then people are going to think "Why should I keep 6' away from everyone in the shops/at work when there were 50,000 people crammed in like sardines at Wembley last night? I mean, they'd stop that if there was really a danger, wouldn't they?"
We probably can't be China, but South Korea are controlling the epidemic without becoming a fascist state, with fewer total cases than Italy,
without just assuming they'll get >50% infection my summer and certainly without just shrugging their shoulders and waiting for the great pensioner cull to provide us with herd immunity.
I can't believe I'm agreeing with Jeremy "cockney slang" Hunt. If the government are using epidemiological models to quantitatively predict the effectiveness of intervention measures, then they need to publish their methods. That's why we believe climate models, but don't believe government brexit budgets. If they don't publish, I'm going with the "numbers from my arse" theory.
And on the subject of numbers from my arse using shitty models that don't account for the complexity of the actual situation. My exponential fits to the case numbers in Italy, France, Germany, Spain and the USA are all increasingly strong. As the numbers get bigger, the fits gets more accurate. UK and the Netherlands have worse fits, but have low case numbers and significantly slower growth rates.
The good and slightly paradoxical news is that as case numbers increase, while the "best fit" gets better, it also predicts ever decreasing growth rates. This is to be expected as people change their behaviour as the disease grows. I'm really hoping that next week shows a big drop-off in Italy's growth rate because they're approaching numbers that will totally fuck their health system.
GOOD NEWS INCOMING
In South Korea, for the first time (I think) the active case number went down. There are fewer Koreans with (active and detected) COVID today than there were yesterday. The change in their "discharged" case number exceeded the change in the "confirmed" case number.
European governments need to follow in their footsteps. Actual data is always better than models, and places like the UK need to use the Korean data to inform their modelling of the spread, rather than just assuming total infection is inevitable.
Boris and the Chief Medical Guy have the fucking nerve to say that we want the peak to be in this Summer and then "herd immunity" will help.
I guess "herd immunity" sounds great, until you think about it. The only way to get immunity is to get infected, which is literally requires the scenario we specificalyl don't want.
Herd immunity does very little until a large fraction have been infected. It might kick in after several years if we have a long-term "corona becomes a new seasonal flu that hits 10% of people every year" scenario.
If you want herd immunity this year, you'll need 50 million to be infected over summer. We have 100,000 hospital beds total, and the vast majority of those do not have ventillators. That can treat about 500,000 people over summer if we kick out every other patient (beds are typically >90% occupied) and each hospitalised corona patient stays 2-3 weeks. Realistically, maybe we can treat 250,000 in 3 months by kicking out non-emergency patients.
So let's hope no-one gets sick and that only 1% need hospitalisation (it's 50% of cases in Italy, with 10% in an ICU. They're probably underestimating the case load by large factor, but hospitalisation seems likely to be at least 5%).
If the government are really expecting a big peak in summer, then they need to be talking about massive expansions to our bed capacity and staff. Setting up emergency hospitals, converting spare buildings into corona wards for 'mild-to-moderate pneumonia' cases that can't stay at home.
Of course, it's "a marathon not a sprint" and we don't want to "peak too soon", as if we're a bantering dad explaining why he's walking in the charity fun-run.
There is some merit in the "cry wolf" idea, but I wouldn't trust any government models that give quantitative predictions (closing schools would only reduce the peak size by 10-15%). No one has any good data on the size of the "cry wolf" effect under worldwide pandemic conditions. It would be a large factor in a local epidemic where there were no visible deaths - but in a worldwide pandemic with other countries' health systems in total collapse?
Since I am a modeller (though not of epidemics), I am very wary of people quoting modelling results as a way of saying "See, I didn't just pull that number from my arse". What it often means is that someone pulled an input parameter number from their arse and is using the modelling results to sanitise their arse-pull.
For school/nursery closures, I kinda get it. A LOT of nurses are parents, and many are married to doctors. You don't want them staying at home with the kids when the hospitals come under huge pressure. I'm not sure how Italy/France are coping with this.
Closing schools (especially for kids who are too young to look after themselves) will have a huge economical impact and is the kind of thing that you probably can't sustain for long.
For sports arenas, I also kinda get it - but in this case I definitely disagree. The idea is that people will got to the pub to watch the game instead, which provides much better transmission conditions (indoors, with food and drink). 10,000 people in a stadium is arguably not worse than 10,000 people in 500 different pubs.
The travel distances will greatly accelerate distribution through the country - though maybe it's too late for that.
However, for a government that love their fucking "nudge" theory and are scared of the "cry wolf" effect, you really want to shut down large sports events.
Live football has a very small economic impact, but sends a huge message. If the stadiums are empty, everyone starts taking this seriously. It's a huge symbolic statement. Conversely, if they are open then people are going to think "Why should I keep 6' away from everyone in the shops/at work when there were 50,000 people crammed in like sardines at Wembley last night? I mean, they'd stop that if there was really a danger, wouldn't they?"
We probably can't be China, but South Korea are controlling the epidemic without becoming a fascist state, with fewer total cases than Italy,
without just assuming they'll get >50% infection my summer and certainly without just shrugging their shoulders and waiting for the great pensioner cull to provide us with herd immunity.
I can't believe I'm agreeing with Jeremy "cockney slang" Hunt. If the government are using epidemiological models to quantitatively predict the effectiveness of intervention measures, then they need to publish their methods. That's why we believe climate models, but don't believe government brexit budgets. If they don't publish, I'm going with the "numbers from my arse" theory.
And on the subject of numbers from my arse using shitty models that don't account for the complexity of the actual situation. My exponential fits to the case numbers in Italy, France, Germany, Spain and the USA are all increasingly strong. As the numbers get bigger, the fits gets more accurate. UK and the Netherlands have worse fits, but have low case numbers and significantly slower growth rates.
The good and slightly paradoxical news is that as case numbers increase, while the "best fit" gets better, it also predicts ever decreasing growth rates. This is to be expected as people change their behaviour as the disease grows. I'm really hoping that next week shows a big drop-off in Italy's growth rate because they're approaching numbers that will totally fuck their health system.
GOOD NEWS INCOMING
In South Korea, for the first time (I think) the active case number went down. There are fewer Koreans with (active and detected) COVID today than there were yesterday. The change in their "discharged" case number exceeded the change in the "confirmed" case number.
European governments need to follow in their footsteps. Actual data is always better than models, and places like the UK need to use the Korean data to inform their modelling of the spread, rather than just assuming total infection is inevitable.
Donald Trump is literally the worst possible person to be in charge during a pandemic. Typhoid Mary would do better than him
I woke up with a scratchy throat and feeling tired/rundown. I'm pretty sure it's just a cold, but didn't want to take chances. It makes me feel irresponsible, because I don't feel very sick, but I work in a medical setting mostly with older folks and didn't want to take the risk. I'm glad I've been stockpiling sick leave.
Fixed.
On topic, my flu is slowly going, though I've lost my sense of smell. I'm sure it's only temporary though, as my sinuses are blocked.
i went to pax and its almost been two weeks, starting to get a sore throat :/. really hope its not what i think, even if it was i wouldnt be able to tested based on the stories ive been reading
sore throat isn't really a common symptom I thought, mainly you're looking for a fever and bad cough
723 new cases + 4 deaths in Spain
1289 new cases + 85 deaths in Iran.
It is really speeding up now.
1289 new cases + 85 deaths in Iran.
It is really speeding up now.
We seem to be taking it seriously here in Maryland. It helps that we have Johns Hopkins informing a lot of the decision-making.
I keep hearing about a 19:00-7:00 curfew, which I guess is more likely than the rumored total Vienna lockdown.
Anyway, people are going crazy. Just went for a walk (since my work is doing Corona-related restructuring and I'm off til Monday), and decided to just look inside a Spar. Meat, bread, pasta, everything just empty. It's messed up.
I think your guess is spot on. I got myself a bunch of snacks and I'm looking forward to a very anti-social videogame weekend. I'm doing my part!
User banned (1 week): spreading misinformation, ignoring staff post
Here in the UK they just stopped releasing numbers..................
Dont forget they also talked shit like theres a curfew and you're not allowed to go out at all anymore.
I fear that those who do not learn from other countries like China and South Korea, are going to follow the exact number of cases
I'm so happy my buddy gifted me a One S for christmas. Those GamePass games are gonna cover me for weeks! (or at least until Doom Eternal and Animal Crossing release ...)
I wonder if the LG OLED that's supposed to be shipped to my place on monday will make it.... 🤔
Not that it matters in the grand scheme of things, but it would be a very welcome moment of positivity during these surreal moments.
Apple opened its stores in China again. I guess they feel confident enough.
112 cases in Portugal (up from 78 yesterday). Or +34, in more pratical terms.
Still no deaths, only 1 recovered person so far.
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It's clearly speeding up in Portugal. The last 3 days have had increases of +19, +18 and now +34. Everything has been mostly close and malls/supermarkets will start having limited access so let's hope it helps contain it a bit more.
Still no deaths, only 1 recovered person so far.
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It's clearly speeding up in Portugal. The last 3 days have had increases of +19, +18 and now +34. Everything has been mostly close and malls/supermarkets will start having limited access so let's hope it helps contain it a bit more.
i think it's both the markets as well as everyone else looking for a silver lining. Any indication that there's gonna be a light at the end of this shitty tunnel is direly needed for those countries that are currently heading towards (or in) lockdown.
Some good news in Canada.
Sunnybrook's (Hospital in Toronto) research team has also been able to isolate and sequence the virus.
sunnybrook.ca
and the first drive-thru testing centre is open in Ottawa.
Sunnybrook's (Hospital in Toronto) research team has also been able to isolate and sequence the virus.
Research team has isolated the COVID-19 virus
and the first drive-thru testing centre is open in Ottawa.
Queensway-Carleton Hospital closes drive-thru testing lane for COVID-19
The Queensway-Carleton Hospital says the drive-thru testing line for COVID-19 patients is for people referred by public health officials to go to the hospital for further testing.
ottawa.ctvnews.ca
That shit too.
Basically i´m good with food and other essentials for about a week. Will probably casually stroll into a store next week, while the crazies can fight it out today.
If people don't know the scale of the situation, we can't be accused of failing!
I hope the media rips apart the government on this, withholding information isn't going to work.
yeah im just an incredibly anxious person tbh, i'll know soon enough anyway. really im worried for my folks, and part of me feels like the delay with testing has to be intentional for some reason bc otherwise its the most incompetence ive literally ever seen. Truly despicable either way.
This isn't true
UK coronavirus cases climb to 798 as deadly bug sweeps Britain
SCOTLAND has seen its first coronavirus death today as cases in the UK climbed to 798 this afternoon. This is a huge jump of 189 extra cases from the earlier figure of 609 people known to have COVI…
www.thesun.co.uk
We have two confirmed cases one county adjacent to where my girlfriend who is a teacher works. They still haven't canceled classes and are MOVING FORWARD with their career fair during school today.
Texas is a mess right now and the testing data is abysmal.
Texas is a mess right now and the testing data is abysmal.
Yep. She can't work because of a personal reason so she watches the news 24/7. I don't even think she gets enough sleep because she has black circles around her eyes. So she has all these ideas in her head. Some (most?) Are conspiracy rubbish and no matter what she won't believe me even if I tell her to check the WHO website to dispel the conspiracy shit and I'm trying my best to keep my emotions in check. She's also talking about turning the garage into a decontamination room as an alternative to me being locked out.
Yeah I'm getting really anxious. My uncle downstairs and a coworker are coughing up a storm and I just wanna jump out a fucking window and run
I've got stuff for about 2 weeks, depending on what our Head of State (I'm swiss) announces today maybe i'll stock up a bit more next week if possible. It sure would be crazy today/tomorrow if they announce state of emergency like Ticino did this week.
Very possible *if* we don't take any measures.
This is what I expect (and hope) will end up happening here in the US.Want to know why Washington Closed schools/banned public gatherings? Gates Foundation/Institute of Disease Modeling/Fred Hutch found without Social distancing, 400+ deaths and 25k infections:
Short-staffed and undersupplied: Coronavirus crisis strains Seattle area’s capacity to deliver care
Now as cases of virus-stricken patients suffering from COVID-19 multiply, Seattle-area government and hospital officials are facing the real-life consequences of shortcomings they’ve documented on paper for years.www.seattletimes.com
Some of the worst figures we are hearing assume that no measures are taken. If we we do nothing, it is likely that hundreds of thousands if not millions will die. Just going from raw numbers.
But social distancing, canceling all large social gatherings, restrictions on movement, and other such measures will have a dramatic effect on the virus' ability to sustain exponential growth. We have already seen this in China and morthern Italy. If you look at a graph of infections in China with respect to time, you will see exponential growth and then a rather dramatic flattening.
