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Just talking with a delivery driver, he does about 60 drops a day. I declined scribbling on his device and he did it for me. Said he goes to all kind of places such as schools, hospitals, all kinds of businesses, as well as private addresses like mine. His employer has no hand sanitiser to offer while they are out and about as there's not to be had, they have given their staff anti-bacterial wipes to clean their pdas with. :/
EDIT: I messed up my Italian numbers by using active cases instead of total cases in some of the figures
The European case numbers from yesterday are mixed. Italy, UK and Germany have lower than expected, while France is right on the exponential growth trend (seriously, my job involves determining exponential half-lives in the environment and I never get fits that look as accurate as Italy's trend before yesterday).
An exponential model predicts 12,500 cases in Italy by the end of the day. The fit of past cases is scarily accurate. I hope that the lockdowns will start to kill this trend, and the full national lockdown on Monday should really start to have an impact within a week (assuming a 5 day incubation and a 2 day test delay).
Outside of Italy, the numbers haven't been high enough for long enough to be confident in any trend. Variations in daily new cases could be due to the targeted testing getting "lucky/unlucky" and finding a cluster of cases. They probably don't reflect the underlying current infection number. I wouldn't be surprised if we get the "Dorries cluster" causing a big rise in UK cases over the next few days.
Remember I am not an epidemiologist or virologist, so this is all speculation.
The Nadine Dorries case is bad news, whatever you think of her as a person. If we get serious illness in high-level government, it could cause panic. And if we get no spread or mild symptoms only, it will cause people to get complacent, especially if arrogant twats like Boris start boasting about "surviving the Coronavirus" as if he had returned from the beaches of Dunkirk. I'd love to think that a disease spreading to high-level government would make them take it seriously, but this is the fucking Tory party, so you know they'll manage to over-react, under-react and inappropriately-react, all at the same time.
Dorries is also one of the more insane Brexiteer Tories ("the Irish border problem doesn't exist and was invented by remainers"), so I'm not surprised she decided to hold a surgery despite having disease symptoms. Having her locked away from any decision making for a couple of weeks is probably a good thing. I hope her mum will be alright though.
The European case numbers from yesterday are mixed. Italy, UK and Germany have lower than expected, while France is right on the exponential growth trend (seriously, my job involves determining exponential half-lives in the environment and I never get fits that look as accurate as Italy's trend before yesterday).
Outside of Italy, the numbers haven't been high enough for long enough to be confident in any trend. Variations in daily new cases could be due to the targeted testing getting "lucky/unlucky" and finding a cluster of cases. They probably don't reflect the underlying current infection number. I wouldn't be surprised if we get the "Dorries cluster" causing a big rise in UK cases over the next few days.
Remember I am not an epidemiologist or virologist, so this is all speculation.
The Nadine Dorries case is bad news, whatever you think of her as a person. If we get serious illness in high-level government, it could cause panic. And if we get no spread or mild symptoms only, it will cause people to get complacent, especially if arrogant twats like Boris start boasting about "surviving the Coronavirus" as if he had returned from the beaches of Dunkirk. I'd love to think that a disease spreading to high-level government would make them take it seriously, but this is the fucking Tory party, so you know they'll manage to over-react, under-react and inappropriately-react, all at the same time.
Dorries is also one of the more insane Brexiteer Tories ("the Irish border problem doesn't exist and was invented by remainers"), so I'm not surprised she decided to hold a surgery despite having disease symptoms. Having her locked away from any decision making for a couple of weeks is probably a good thing. I hope her mum will be alright though.
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3,000 Atletico fans being allowed to travel from Madrid to Liverpool for a football match strikes me as spectacularly poor management by authorities.
Italies numbers declined from 1.8 Thousand, to 977. So it looked like it declined a bit, or am i wrong?
Any idea what their capacity is for testing? With that kind of growth, it doesn't seem like it'd be too long before that and the practicality or usefulness of testing would cap the numbers if the rate of spread continued.
Unfortunately, yesterday the results of several tests in Lombardia were not avilable yet when those numbers (+977) were announced in the press conference at 6 PM CET.
Consequently, today I expect those numbers to be added to the daily ones - and there is the possibility that today's increment could be the highest ever (unless today's results are late too).
It's a nonsense that there's a lack of uniformity between countries and governing bodies. How can it be that there's cases where a team has to play behind closed doors domestically, but fans are free to travel internationally and participate abroad?
User banned (3 days): ignoring staff post, fearmongering
I just realized. I'm sure there is no relation, but remember all the drama about vaping late last year? Strange coincidence.
Despite there only being 25 confirmed cases at the moment polish government already went fully on containing the spread - all schools, cinemas, museums had been closed for 2 weeks and mass gatherings (1000+) had been banned indefinitely.
I think that may be the first time I admire someting our current government did, this is a surprisingly swift reaction.
I think that may be the first time I admire someting our current government did, this is a surprisingly swift reaction.
It's really dumb, Madrid being also at the core of the infection cases in Spain.
If you're using the number from Robert-Koch-Institut for Germany consider those are currently not entirely accurate as they said they change the way they collect the numbers from the different states.
Robert Koch Institut lists 484 cases from NRW on their website yesterday evening while the health ministry of NRW just reported 687.
Worldometer lists 1565 for whole Germany compared to 1296 from RKI (but I'm not sure how accurate those are).
My neighbours returned from Florence a couple days ago (I'm in the UK)... In a text to my wife, the mother of the family said "I bet we'll have to bloody self-isolate now" and moaned of how she couldn't stand being indoors for two weeks with her husband and son...
I got home from work yesterday, and noticed that the position of the cars on their driveway was different to how it had been in the morning. Upon speaking to my wife I was told that both of them had been to work that day, and the dad had taken their son to school.
Lo and behold, off he went again this morning with their son in the car.
I mean, sure *hopefully* they won't be infected, but the sheer selfish, pig-headedness of these 'supposedly responsible' people is infuriating and worrying.
There doesn't even seem to be a way to report them...
I got home from work yesterday, and noticed that the position of the cars on their driveway was different to how it had been in the morning. Upon speaking to my wife I was told that both of them had been to work that day, and the dad had taken their son to school.
Lo and behold, off he went again this morning with their son in the car.
I mean, sure *hopefully* they won't be infected, but the sheer selfish, pig-headedness of these 'supposedly responsible' people is infuriating and worrying.
There doesn't even seem to be a way to report them...
Isn't Spain basically fucked?
They have less cases in a whole in regards to Germany and France, but had a lot more new cases? They didn't take this virus serious at all and probably starting Fallas in Valencia and continuing with celebrations and events in the whole country didn't help it, even if they canceled things now. It probably has done its harm, no?
Edit:
Found the post. So Germany has less cases alright, but just because of yesterday. But with Spain having a higher increase and less total cases than France, shouldn't this be alarming on an exponential view? Especially since Spain didn't care at all to limit some stuff? For me this isn't a good view at all tbh.
They have less cases in a whole in regards to Germany and France, but had a lot more new cases? They didn't take this virus serious at all and probably starting Fallas in Valencia and continuing with celebrations and events in the whole country didn't help it, even if they canceled things now. It probably has done its harm, no?
Edit:
Found the post. So Germany has less cases alright, but just because of yesterday. But with Spain having a higher increase and less total cases than France, shouldn't this be alarming on an exponential view? Especially since Spain didn't care at all to limit some stuff? For me this isn't a good view at all tbh.
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Alright, my place of work is closed to tourists now.
Really curious if they'll find something for us to do, or if we'll just get to stay home for some days to weeks.
Really curious if they'll find something for us to do, or if we'll just get to stay home for some days to weeks.
Fallas is cancelled. Events and gatherings have been severely restricted, and this week has been the tipping point in Spain where drastic measures have started to become a reality.
The issue was not taken seriously, with the usual "it's just a flu" and the people worried about it during february being seen as paranoids. The authorities were too scared of the economical and political effects if they started cancelling events. Until they realised that the public healthcare system won't be able to cope with such growing numbers, they did not start taking serious measures.
This is EXACTLY my situation, at least they gave that driver anti-bacterial wipes, they haven't given us anything. The most we've received from management is "be safe". 🤦🏽♂️
Too many places are reactive instead of proactive. My workplace plans to remain open until someone is sick. At that point multiple people will have been infected.
It feels like proactive measures are being treated as hysterical, when in truth they're going to prevent a crisis. Being proactive is how you protect against hysteria. If you wait until infections already exist, you've ensured the virus will spread.
It feels like proactive measures are being treated as hysterical, when in truth they're going to prevent a crisis. Being proactive is how you protect against hysteria. If you wait until infections already exist, you've ensured the virus will spread.
same in Sweden atm, got all the symptoms for awhile, but can't get tested in anyway it is frustrating
I know it's cancelled. I wrote it the sentence after. But it probably curved the infections already that we might see in the coming days. Spain didn't care at all. And yes you're right, it will get bad for their healthcare system. Just from those numbers yesterday, it will get a lot worse than France or Germany.
I'm in Tokyo.
It's pretty much business as usual here, aside from everyone buying toilet roll. In the news they are mostly focusing on the cases in Osaka.
My office has been closed since the beginning of the month but is set to reopen again next Tuesday. There was was an advisory for most places to close/work from home at the beginning of the month so I do wonder if there's gonna be a spike in cases when most people go back to work next week.
have there been stats on how many people have died from flu in the time that corona has spread?
My dad keeps hammering that "more people die from the flu, so corona is being overblown" Fox News drum, so wondering if there were actual stats available contrasting the two.
My dad keeps hammering that "more people die from the flu, so corona is being overblown" Fox News drum, so wondering if there were actual stats available contrasting the two.
Dude, I live in Puerto Rico, the island where a cruise ship with 2 passengers from Italy that showed symptoms of coronavirus was not only allowed to dock and 98%of the passengers disembark and spend an afternoon in Old San Juan, but also had the Tourism Secretary go INTO the ship and to present them with a recognition. Yeah, we're fucked.
The Spanish government and authorities, or the people? Probably both. Except for a few friends, everyone was like "It won't be that bad, the press is overblowing it, it's a false crisis" and I was seen like an alarmist for telling people the shit was going to hit the fan and that we needed to prepare. I even told them that they had put the wrong symptoms on the first warning email they sent to the staff.
I was even told to not put posters with warnings and prevention tips because I was going to cause a panic. Now every wall is covered with them.
The pandemic is still in early stages in most countries so a global comparison isn't really meaningful yet.
But in Italy 240 flu deaths were reported this season from October to January (so around 4 months). Just in the last three days alone Italy reported 398 corona deaths.
I mean I don't want to point fingers, but it was probably a good combination of both yes :/
In my spanish WhatsApp group from the University it was also taken super slightly without any preparation of what's to come. In the meanwhile other countries already decided to lock down universities and cancel events that are too big. Damn, not looking too hot now :/
Turns out we never actually left high school, where the appearance of things, fitting in, and generally being "cool" are more important than rational, preventative actions.
they found out after but in about 10 days time he'll be getting a visit from all 4 of them, suffice to say he may need his loft re-doing!
Switzerland is no longer testing anyone under 65 years old or in an "at risk" group. So expect our numbers here to stop exploding but don't think anything is under control. All about optics.
We pay insanely high insurance prices and lots of people are quite annoyed at being told to self isolate and self medicate with no support of medical professionals.
We pay insanely high insurance prices and lots of people are quite annoyed at being told to self isolate and self medicate with no support of medical professionals.
Its kind of ridiculous how countries are restricting testing and aren't really being proactive.
Yeah, its good that they were cancelled. But they should have cancelled them 10 days ago. They have done more economic damage (and who knows if we have more infected thanks to the mascletas this past few days) for beig wishy washy, than they would have been if they would have been strict for the start.
Sad part is, even postponing them thos will be a huge blow to the festivity's future. Lots of artistas falleros are pending from a string most of the time and they need the money from the contracts from not only fallas but also the hogueras of alicante, and this year by year basis (yo can learn a lot of this from the fallero forums aroubd the internet). Even if postponed until summer, the falla has to stay inside the workshop, which means they dont have enough space to start with the hoguera for san juan. It also means they cant really start planning for next year's falla. Some people on this forums are already asking that the city hall shuld give artistas falleros a free rent during this months to get new warehouse to put the 2020 fallas inside until the postponed date.
I really think that would help soften the blow and not make a lot of them go under which would impact the future of the festivity. They should also pay for the movement companies that put the big ones on the streets, as that is really expensive for the artista fallero.
I hope your son can experience fallas again in a big way in the future. How old is he btw? In my experience the best age to start and enjoy it the most is at 6.
It's a simplification, but I've started asking "if you're in a car accident, do you prefer putting your seatbelt on before or after the collision?"
Work at Tokyo. Job allowed us to WFH starting this week. The numbers are definitely bullshit. They're only testing people who were near confirmed patients or in affected countries.
We asked all our employees (software development consultancy) to start working from home today and in the coming weeks (Norway/Poland with a dozen in each office). All client meetings will be done in video or postponed. Our parent-company (which we share building with) is also closing down the cantina for the foreseeable future. They are not sending people abroad/through-airports anymore unless absolutely business critical. And people returning from abroad now are required to work from home for two weeks before returning to office (my brother in law will have to go through this once he returns from Aberdeen tomorrow).
My wife works at the cantina at the local theatre/public library and they are cancelling all their events for the next weeks and likely she will be asked to close the cantina as well sometime today. So we're both going to be home for the next few weeks. /Norway
My wife works at the cantina at the local theatre/public library and they are cancelling all their events for the next weeks and likely she will be asked to close the cantina as well sometime today. So we're both going to be home for the next few weeks. /Norway
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I don't get why our company don't do the same. We're several hundreds here and only work through email.
Probably still slows down stuff...
I'm just glad that the Bundesmuseen are finally closed. Having places where loads of tourists gather is just not a great idea ATM.
I'm quite shocked that our company does not apply measures other than replacing the linen towel with paper towels and putting three extra soap dispensers. We're a small company in Utrecht area, Netherlands, with around 30 in-house employees. Half of them need to commute in densely packed trains for like over an hour from all over the country. At one point, it's going to be irresponsible to keep forcing everyone to come to the office. Working from home is possible, but a hassle. The extra safety is well worth the hassle though.
Im currently living in Japan. I feel that the non-japanese media isn't reporting new cases, for example the other day a postman from Nagoya Sagawa branch office and a worker from a supermarket in Nakano, Tokyo, got infected and I haven't seen that in the international newspapers I tend to read everyday. There has been 40 new cases today.
I also think that the government is hiding the real numbers because of the Olympics. There is no way that we haven't had that many cases compared to South Korea or Italy for example in a country where there's a lot of people in tiny spaces.
These responses are good evidence for why my posts about infection trends should be taken with a big pinch of salt:
Yesterday's number showed sharp drop in new cases. Prior to that it was tracking a near perfect exponential rise. It seems early to see an effect from the national lockdown, but perhaps the earlier measures had started to have an effect. Hospitals getting full in Lombardi will probably have had a chilling effect on peoples's behaviour
In most countries, the vast majority of tests (over 90%) are negative, and Korea is testing about 15000 people per day. Italy would need a very large test capacity to keep up, or they'll have to start rationing the tests. I doubt any country can keep doubling their test capacity every 3-4 days to keep up with an exponential rise. Changes to the testing/diagnosis criteria would make any curve fitting much more unreliable.
EDIT: Fuck, my Italian numbers are fucked because they changed the headline figure from total cases to active cases, plus I messed up some timestamps and had a mix of noon and 6pm updates in the early timepoints.
Yesterday's number showed sharp drop in new cases. Prior to that it was tracking a near perfect exponential rise. It seems early to see an effect from the national lockdown, but perhaps the earlier measures had started to have an effect. Hospitals getting full in Lombardi will probably have had a chilling effect on peoples's behaviour
Good point. I don't see any test numbers in the Italian figures, so I'm not sure if/when they will have trouble keeping up with the increase in cases. This could really cause problems for working out whether the quarantine is affecting the trend, or if it's just or hitting the test-capacity-limit . My simple curve fitting takes no account of numbers tested. It only really works if the diagnosed case numbers are proportional to the true number of actual infections.
In most countries, the vast majority of tests (over 90%) are negative, and Korea is testing about 15000 people per day. Italy would need a very large test capacity to keep up, or they'll have to start rationing the tests. I doubt any country can keep doubling their test capacity every 3-4 days to keep up with an exponential rise. Changes to the testing/diagnosis criteria would make any curve fitting much more unreliable.
Yes, I was using RKI numbers from the 15:00hrs status reports. I wonder why the numbers are different, bureaucratic lag time? Things like variations in the reporting time lags or changes in reporting methods will mess up my "naive" fitting of the data.
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