Glad to hear your mum is feeling better. In her case I'd probably wait until the storm has passed.
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Just a quick note on the Korean figures. The official figures are published very regularly on the Korean CDC website, in English, here:
https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
They are very transparent and include the numbers tested, recovered, dead and where in SK they are. I think this is a model that western countries should follow.
They are doing a lot of testing (16,000 yesterday) and over 95% of tests are negative. This suggests that they are finding most of the cases. They'll obviously be missing some, and some results will be false postives or negatives, but there's clearly no "we're only looking at the tip of the iceberg" thing going on.
They haven't published that 5186 number yet (see Chinese news report earlier in this thread), but I expect it will be added soon.
They usually update the numbers twice a day, which is why the numbers reported in the news can be conflicting (they could have "just added another 300 cases" and also "found 500 cases since yesterday").
I've been looking at the epidemic curve and it is almost certainly exiting the exponential growth phase (and should be heading into a typical S-shaped cumulative-cases-over-time curve). The latest daily numbers are high (600 in the last day), but not growing exponentially (would have expected about 1600 daily cases).
This is pretty good news. It suggests that exponential spread will occur if left unchecked (the cultists) but that the control measures in South Korea are effective. I know little about SK culture, but I think that there is no obvious reason why we can't follow similar measures in the west (unlike China, where the government's control of the people is radically different from ours).
https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
They are very transparent and include the numbers tested, recovered, dead and where in SK they are. I think this is a model that western countries should follow.
They are doing a lot of testing (16,000 yesterday) and over 95% of tests are negative. This suggests that they are finding most of the cases. They'll obviously be missing some, and some results will be false postives or negatives, but there's clearly no "we're only looking at the tip of the iceberg" thing going on.
They haven't published that 5186 number yet (see Chinese news report earlier in this thread), but I expect it will be added soon.
They usually update the numbers twice a day, which is why the numbers reported in the news can be conflicting (they could have "just added another 300 cases" and also "found 500 cases since yesterday").
I've been looking at the epidemic curve and it is almost certainly exiting the exponential growth phase (and should be heading into a typical S-shaped cumulative-cases-over-time curve). The latest daily numbers are high (600 in the last day), but not growing exponentially (would have expected about 1600 daily cases).
This is pretty good news. It suggests that exponential spread will occur if left unchecked (the cultists) but that the control measures in South Korea are effective. I know little about SK culture, but I think that there is no obvious reason why we can't follow similar measures in the west (unlike China, where the government's control of the people is radically different from ours).
i hate the panic this is inducing, im starting to see some of it in the hospital i work at even though there hasnt been a single confirmed case anywhere near us.. one patient that got a routine x-ray basically jumped out of his bed shouting "IS IT THE CORONA, TELL ME!!!", we just stared back at him like wtf. awkwardly i tried to calm him down saying i dont think so.. but what do i know lol.
its gonna be fucking chaos when we actually do get corona patients (the ICU and the infection ward are already full basically 24/7), and tbh im almost more afraid of the workload and crazy patients than the virus itself... ffs we only have TWO guards in our entire massive university hospital complex. who is gonna keep things peaceful?
on that note, in 2 hours i have to go practice using all the protective gear in case i need to transport infected patients :| fml. thank heavens thats my only responsibility.. just get them from A to B.
its gonna be fucking chaos when we actually do get corona patients (the ICU and the infection ward are already full basically 24/7), and tbh im almost more afraid of the workload and crazy patients than the virus itself... ffs we only have TWO guards in our entire massive university hospital complex. who is gonna keep things peaceful?
on that note, in 2 hours i have to go practice using all the protective gear in case i need to transport infected patients :| fml. thank heavens thats my only responsibility.. just get them from A to B.
"Yeah well...things are looking a little hectic around here...it looks like we're gonna need you to do a little more than move them from point A to point B."
She'll almost definitely be okay but it's not worth the risk, she should wait for this to pass.
Is this really THAT bad or is it only because its a new disease?
The symptoms sound like a worse version of pneumonia to me. The survival rate appears to be pretty good to me as well. If the survival rate drops drastically then because of how easy it spreads then that will be a worry.
But right now?
The symptoms sound like a worse version of pneumonia to me. The survival rate appears to be pretty good to me as well. If the survival rate drops drastically then because of how easy it spreads then that will be a worry.
But right now?
Yeah I think the major concerns right now come from the fact that there is no vaccine and it's very deadly to older people/those with underlying conditions.
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80% of infected have mild or medium symptoms, but ~20% have serious or critical symptoms. Those 20% will need medical care.
Aside from fatality rate of disease, real danger here is overloading of medical system caused by fast and uncontrolled spread of the virus. No medical system can handle 20% of the population being in serious or critical condition. This would cause a lot of death from not only COVID-19 but other diseases, injuries etc that are not treated because of the overloaded medical system.
This can be prevented and mitigated by slowing down the progress of disease as much as possible, so that the number of people sick stay under control. Thus ensuring that the 20% that need treatment get the best possible.
I think it's good that the people who aren't at risk are overreacting, it's better than them just shrugging it off as all the elderly/ill die.
"Yeah well...things are looking a little hectic around here...it looks like we're gonna need you to do a little more than move them from point A to point B."
gotta pay me more than 10 euros/h then =)
as long as they arent rushing already overloaded hospitals and demanding tests and meds..
I mean it isn't good when the people who aren't at risk are buying masks, hoarding food and anti-bacterial gel.
As others have said, the main danger isn't the CFR, but the sheer amount of hospitalized people / quarantines / disruption of society and the associated risk of collapse of medical care.
If all the hospitals are full of infected people and healthcare professionals are working overtime, everyone who needs hospital care for other reasons will be at risk.
It seems to me that we really need a reserve medical corps (instead of reserve military which is largely pointless) with quick-to-assemble medical units. Maybe not as good as the real deal but still. Real stockpiles of masks and basis medical supplies. The tricky bit is expensive medical machines . Hard to build a mostly useless surplus of those.
The WHO's latest situation report #42:
Austria is listed with 10 cases only but we had 18 confirmed yesterday 2.march. weird
21 today btw
Austria has performed the third most tests per capita, not counting China (SK and Italy lead)meanwhile at the austrian "Corona Taskforce" (fucking what? lol):
This is the wayI live in a small town in Germany and people already lost their mind here.
Holy shit.
Good news is US military reserves have many medical units. The bad news is most medical professionals that serve in the reserves are in the civilian medical field already.
They promised uncompromised transparency and gave us shit.
Their daily press conference is a joke. Next to no information and certainly no actions (no cancelations of huge ass events, no travel restrictions etc).
Don't get me wrong: its great that they keep THAT calm and do lots of testing. I just hope they don't keep too calm.
Unbelievable - not only are they not canceling the huge health IT conference I'm supposed to attend next week, BUT they invited Trump to speak and he's doing a speech on Monday. https://www.databreachtoday.com/himss-2020-show-will-go-on-trump-invited-a-13827
As a health IT professional I am disgusted, not only because I hate Trump but also because he's so anti-science and is completely bungling the US response to this virus. I've mentioned it before but I'm high-risk (have hypertension, an autoimmune disorder and asthma), there will be 45,000 people there from all over the world and my boss has made it clear that I have to go unless the conference is cancelled. I'll bring hand sanitizer and disinfectant wipes but I'm scared of catching something (not just COVID-19 but also the flu).
I guess I'll try and limit my exposure by attending small panels and, obviously, washing my hands constantly and not touching my face.
As a health IT professional I am disgusted, not only because I hate Trump but also because he's so anti-science and is completely bungling the US response to this virus. I've mentioned it before but I'm high-risk (have hypertension, an autoimmune disorder and asthma), there will be 45,000 people there from all over the world and my boss has made it clear that I have to go unless the conference is cancelled. I'll bring hand sanitizer and disinfectant wipes but I'm scared of catching something (not just COVID-19 but also the flu).
I guess I'll try and limit my exposure by attending small panels and, obviously, washing my hands constantly and not touching my face.
That's quite surprising tbh.
Isn't Trump known to be one of the biggest germaphobes ever?
I feel for you. Work has me traveling almost every day the next couple of weeks. Stay healthy my friend.
Thanks, there seems to be different people saying different things in different places so it's really hard to figure out what the symptoms actually are.
I'm sorry to hear that, especially since so many of the large companies (at least in the US) have cancelled domestic travel for their employees. I think I just feel helpless, since other than practicing good hygiene habits there's nothing I can do. :(
Reading that I am not even sure I didn't have it. I had those exact same symptoms, but wasn't tested over a week ago (just took my blood to look if I have the flu). I had fever, dry cough, was absolutely exhausted like wasn't able to stay awake for more than 2 hours, headaches, big muscle aches and for the first two days I had chills and a bit of diarrhoea. Had no problems breathing though and 5 days ago my body put out the green muscus so there is that. Still thinking about if I had it/have it but I am in Germany and the first cases appeared after me getting sick.
I'm withholding judgement. They locked everyone in a school based on a suspected case so it seems to me they aren't afraid to act if they have to
At some point you have to stand up for yourself and put your health first, my dude.
Some good news of Italy:
Yesterday we had 270 less cases than on Sunday bringing the Total to 1835 cases. We also only yesterday had 66 recovered people. So the first slowing done in any kind.
While the total is still high, it's also not really "new" cases but furthermore people that got infected weeks ago but only now are being tested.
Coronavirus, l'ultimo bollettino: in Italia 2.263 positivi e 79 morti, 160 le persone guarite
L'incremento è di 428 persone rispetto a ieri, i decessi 27 in più. Lo ha detto il commissario Angelo Borrelli durante la conferenza stampa a…www.repubblica.it
When did they implement the change to reporting? They wanted to exclude all people who test positive but are without symptoms (approx. 50% of the cases)
The rather lax quarantines are my biggest point of critic.
They send a nurse into home quarantine but her husband is allowed to go normally to work every day.
Where's the sense in that?
This is great and should be across the board in the US.
Well? What did the blood test say regarding to Flu/Influenza? Because if you did NOT have the flu it really is quite likely you had a mild case of this. The common cold is usually milder than what you are describing. A good way to distinguish between flu and cold is also that a cold develops over a longer period of time, say 1-2 days while the flu absolutely floors you within hours normally.
I'm a New Yorker and this guy generally sucks, but this is a great move.
I live in a small town in Germany and people already lost their mind here.
Holy shit.
Alright are we sure this isn't a bio-engineered virus created by the Toilet Paper, Bottled Water, and Milk industries lol (this is a joke pls dont take it seriously)
The Toilet Paper confuses me the most.