Novel coronavirus (COVID-19) resources and discussion thread (Discussion guidelines in OP)

[devSin]

I wonder why that is...

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Politics.

I think by any reasonable estimation, the pandemic threshold was crossed this last week. But calling it that would spark fear with social and economic repercussions worldwide, and so it seems the WHO has cowardly decided to pretend it is not a pandemic but instead just ultra-super-duper-serious.

I don't think it particularly effects the handling of the pandemic on their end, but I'm not sure the same is true for the responses of individual nations (though part of any response to a worldwide event like this will be the messaging).

 

[Arebours]

china pollution before and after outbreak:

 

[2PiR]

Politics.

The pandemic threshold was crossed this last week. But calling it that will spark fear with social and economic repercussions worldwide, and so the WHO has cowardly decided to pretend it is not a pandemic but instead just ultra-super-duper-serious.

Kind of like how we couldn't call genocide in Burma "genocide", because then we'd have to do something about it.

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sounds like a conspiracy theory to me. WHO is independent organization.

 

[spam musubi]

Politics.

The pandemic threshold was crossed this last week. But calling it that will spark fear with social and economic repercussions worldwide, and so the WHO has cowardly decided to pretend it is not a pandemic but instead just ultra-super-duper-serious.

Kind of like how we couldn't call genocide in Burma "genocide", because then we'd have to do something about it.

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sounds like a conspiracy theory to me. WHO is independent organization.

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Reminder that the WHO also considers Taiwan to be a province of China, and they appointed Robert Mugabe a goodwill ambassador. They are a political organization. Also, they are not independent. They are a subgroup of the UN.

 

[devSin]

sounds like a conspiracy theory to me. WHO is independent organization.

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No, it isn't. It is a political body made up of its member states.

It's also not conspiratorial; it's an opinion based on the information we have. You can look up the definition of pandemic for yourself.

 

[Alastor3]

china pollution before and after outbreak:

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The only good point i see of the pandemic

 

[Alastor3]

[*]Spanish Flu peaked in the summer and fall (again unlike COVID-19)

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We dont even know that yet, we are still in winter technically

 

[feline fury]

We dont even know that yet, we are still in winter technically

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The scary part is that the second "wave" of the 1918 flu was the deadlier version. Better hope this doesn't mutate into something worse.

 

[Sibylus]

We dont even know that yet, we are still in winter technically

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Yes, but the point is that thus far the timing is misaligned. The spanish flu had a longer lead-up with identifiable outbreaks beginning around March and bulldozing into the spring, summer, and fall. COVID-19's winter start is more in line with other epidemics. Too soon to say anything about additional waves.

 

[DopeyFish]

oh boy



welp, good luck on getting all the go bus passengers :O

 

[Zygnosis]

We dont even know that yet, we are still in winter technically

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It's Summer in Australia.

 

[GYODX]

I keep a month of food supplies on me always. Blizzards, outbreaks, hurricanes, disasters, etc. Its always a good idea. Doesn't have to be anything wild, just stuff Ill use anyway.

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Look at this guy. Next you're gonna tell us you keep an emergency fund and various other kinds of insurance.

 

[Halbrand]

It's Summer in Australia.

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Haven't they gotten it under control now?

 

[commish]

lol so people here are stocking up food now?

just so you know, its been over 1 month since this virus has been detected and it still doesn't meet WHO's definition of pandemic.

Take a breath and relax. Stop reading too much fear mongering news. Lets see how many new cases we get in coming weeks.

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The problem with waiting is that other ppl aren't. If there are certain things you want, it might not be as easy to get in a month. I'd rather have and not need than to be the person in line with 9 million other ppl in a month. I mean, we are talking about buying some extra food, not moving to Montana and building a bunker :)

 

[Afrikan]

china pollution before and after outbreak:

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the best thing for Earth and all the living things, besides us humans, is for us to all die.

or what was that ending to the movie Escape From L.A.? something similar.

Edit- although my ban ended 6 days ago, and there have been MANY other threads I've wanted to respond to on various topics.... I couldn't push myself to do that without apologizing here first. I'm sorry to anyone who read that. I was thinking in a sense of movies where wildlife is walking around peaceful with trees and plants growing everywhere in Big Cities..like New York. My mind was drifting off thinking outloud, and this was the worse time to do that.

 

[skullmuffins]

Well gene evolves each generation. Human gene also evolve but since we reproduce slowly it is not noticable. They probably compare the current virus and the previous, and estimate how long it has been evolving based on the difference.

Some Italian also did similar research and get the same conclusion of their strain I think.

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not even that advanced - they're saying the recent community transmission case in WA has a virus directly genetically related to the one that infected the first patient in WA, who was identified back in January, so it's most likely been spreading undetected in that area for six weeks.

 

[Astronut325]

china pollution before and after outbreak:

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Are these maps available for other countries/regions?

 

[wafflebrain]

A postal worker infected handling god knows how many people's mail before getting tested...wonderful /s

 

[TheUnseenTheUnheard]

A postal worker infected handling god knows how many people's mail before getting tested...wonderful /s

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It's a wonderful day in the neighborhood

 

[DukeBlueBall]

the best thing for Earth and all the living things, besides us humans, is for us to all die.

or what was that ending to the movie Escape From L.A.? something similar.

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What's the pointing of living things if there are no sentient beings to appreciate them?

 

[harry the spy]

Has there been news of infants/babies being infected? I have a 3 week old son.

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Don't worry - it seems to have very little effect on infant / children

 

[iamaustrian]

I repeat this cause people rarely mention these tips:

1- Your nose is a spaceport for the virus if not dry; it will try to cause you to sneeze to spread to other hosts. Keep your nose dry. If you live in a cold country, breathing will cause condensation in your nose. As soon as you get inside, go wipe the inside of your nose with toilet paper or tissue paper to get the moisture out, wash your face a bit, then wash your hands. Do NOT blow your nose! You'll spread germs. Just wipe the inside of your nostrils.

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uhm??? That can't be right.
If your nose is dry on the inside it isn't working properly and vulnerable to harmful germs. It's mucosal after all. Guess why you get a "running nose" outside in the cold? It's because the nose WANTS to stay moist and not dry out.
The moisture in your nose (and your nose hair) is one of the very first defence lines of your immune system against viruses and bacteria.
They get "trapped" in the snot before getting deeper (lungs) in your system. the "running nose" washes (or transports) the germs out again.

The inside of your nose shouldn't be touched with anything, no tissues no TP. Just leave it alone. If you want to blow your nose you can do but rather gently; otherwise you could blow stuff upwards towards the sinuses.

 

[Leeness]

oh boy



welp, good luck on getting all the go bus passengers :O

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:(

 

[Gawge]

I am afraid to go for runs this spring, so I am thankful to have ring fit.

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Why? I mean unless you are running through a crowded shopping mall shaking hands with everyone on your way.

Why is everyone so fucking upset about people buying supplies? Get over it.

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I'm not from the US, so maybe it's a bit more of a common thing. Nothing like that has been happening here despite many cases. I'm sure there are plenty of people who actually have "prepared" by getting supplies, but when it tips over to joining huge queues like the ones posted here, it's essentially contributing to public panic for no particularly good reason.

Especially since most of the people contributing to the panic are in the groups for which this is barely discernible from the winter flu.

 

[Halbrand]

A postal worker infected handling god knows how many people's mail before getting tested...wonderful /s

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"The network distribution center is a mail processing plant that distributes USPS marketing mail and package services in piece and bulk form and does not handle letter mail. No mail is delivered from the facility."

 

[SleepSmasher]

A postal worker infected handling god knows how many people's mail before getting tested...wonderful /s

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COVID-19 and in fact much of the influenza "family" won't survive for more than 2 hours in the open. Don't think this is an issue at all.

 

[Deleted member 21709]

COVID-19 and in fact much of the influenza "family" won't survive for more than 2 hours in the open. Don't think this is an issue at all.

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Do you have a source?

 

[JeTmAn]

Looks like a few people are now being tested for the virus in my town in eastern Washington.

Test results for Spokane County resident who displayed coronavirus symptoms expected Monday or Tuesday

Update, March 2, 10:40 am:

www.khq.com

 

[Typhon]

COVID-19 and in fact much of the influenza "family" won't survive for more than 2 hours in the open. Don't think this is an issue at all.

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Didn't they start sanitizing mail after the Anthrax scares too?

 

[Crackhead_Bob]

At this point I think it's logical to like, add a few extra things to your weekly shopping list, but not going all-out. Things like rice and non-perishables you can just put in a cupboard and forget about.

Just a little every week will keep the supply chain steady, compared to emptying out store shelves all at once and staggering availability to those who might need things more urgently than you.

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What exactly should I or others concerned about this stock up on? Everything I'm hearing sounds like it's going to be Captain Trips.

 

[Deleted member 9399]

oh boy



welp, good luck on getting all the go bus passengers :O

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I hope they decide to use the mobile emergency alert thing like they do for Amber Alerts, that's a shitload of potential people that might not see this before more damage is done. :/

 

[iamaustrian]

Didn't they start sanitizing mail after the Anthrax scares too?

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anthrax is a whole different beast.
edit: also anthrax is a bacterium.


Corona-like viruses do not last any longer than 4-5 days max on surfaces.. without a host these viruses deactivate very fast.

In general, because of poor survivability of these coronaviruses on surfaces, there is likely very low risk of spread from products or packaging that are shipped over a period of days or weeks at ambient temperatures. Coronaviruses are generally thought to be spread most often by respiratory droplets. Currently there is no evidence to support transmission of COVID-19 associated with imported goods and there have not been any cases of COVID-19 in the United States associated with imported goods.

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[SleepSmasher]

Do you have a source?

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Sorry, confused it with a different virus. According to the CDC, "up to 48 hours":

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/resource-ce...e-pdfs/contamination_cleaning_english_508.pdf

 

[Kyougar]

This is from a few pages ago re: the 1918 H1N1 pandemic, but a few things to add:

• Spanish Flu peaked in the summer and fall (again unlike COVID-19)

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Are you from the future? We don't know how the virus will react in the summer and fall.
Also the spanish flu only got super deadly in the second flu season.

 

[Deleted member 21709]

Why are we talking about the Spanish flu?

 

[Sibylus]

Are you from the future? We don't know how the virus will react in the summer and fall.
Also the spanish flu only got super deadly in the second flu season.

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Already responded. Future waves could blow up over the summer and fall (or not follow seasonality at all, that's a longer shot), that's conceivable, but at least as this outbreak goes it was situated earlier comparatively to the Spanish Flu (and exploded out of the gate faster).

 

[Kyougar]

Already responded. Future waves could blow up over the summer and fall (or not follow seasonality at all, that's a longer shot), that's conceivable, but at least as this outbreak goes it was situated earlier comparatively to the Spanish Flu (and exploded out of the gate faster).

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A virus doesn't have an energy level that it uses up. It doesn't matter how fast it exploded or how fast it was initially spreading. We have no way to know when the peak is, or if it even peaks or just stays forever.

 

[WinniethePimp]

So one thing i was wondering about... if we are looking at the CFR of this with the data we have, do you just add up
the different risk factors in place for a particular person in order to somewhat "estimate" your personal risk or is that not
how it works? Statistics can be tricky sometimes (or always lol)

Say you have diabetes which adds around 6% right? then you add the fact that you're over 50, which adds about 3% and the fact that you're male, which adds another 3% (don't quote me on the actuel %es, they may not be the exact ones, just something in the ballpark to get the concept) Would this all add up to a personal risk of 12% of not surviving an infection or am i completely off the mark here? Glad if someone who's better at statistics can chime in.

 

[Arebours]

Why are we talking about the Spanish flu?

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because the spanish flu was also a pandemic? learning from history is always a good thing?

 

[Sibylus]

A virus doesn't have an energy level that it uses up. It doesn't matter how fast it exploded or how fast it was initially spreading. We have no way to know when the peak is, or if it even peaks or just stays forever.

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I didn't suggest it does. Its hosts and their immune systems do change their behavior with the seasons, and the speed of the outbreak certainly matters. 1918 went unnoticed for years as it threaded its way through wartime surgeries, and then spread slowly enough that (in conjunction with the wartime censorship) it established a wide, global range of outbreaks before many were cognizant of the problem. COVID-19's comparative shock to the system couldn't help but get attention, and in Hubei its explosive debut is also a factor that suggests it could burn itself out faster than it might have otherwise (its window to infect widely was much shorter than 1918's, and hosts are drying up as the quarantine and home-stays continue).

Why are we talking about the Spanish flu?

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People were comparing the CFR of COVID-19 to the Spanish Flu.

 

[Kanann]

Thai first victim, 35 years old.

Thailand records first coronavirus death

Thailand has recorded its first coronavirus death.

www.bangkokpost.com

The 35-year-old male retail worker had dengue fever and the new disease known as Covid-19, Suwannachai Wattanayingcharoenchai, director-general of the Department of Disease Control, said in a briefing Sunday. "This was a case of local transmission, and he was at risk because he had exposure to Chinese tourists," he said.

The patient had been hospitalised since Feb 16 at a private hospital and transferred to Bamrasnardura Infectious Diseases Institute and died on Saturday after multiple organ failure.

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[Engell]

So one thing i was wondering about... if we are looking at the CFR of this with the data we have, do you just add up
the different risk factors in place for a particular person in order to somewhat "estimate" your personal risk or is that not
how it works? Statistics can be tricky sometimes (or always lol)

Say you have diabetes which adds around 6% right? then you add the fact that you're over 50, which adds about 3% and the fact that you're male, which adds another 3% (don't quote me on the actuel %es, they may not be the exact ones, just something in the ballpark to get the concept) Would this all add up to a personal risk of 12% of not surviving an infection or am i completely off the mark here? Glad if someone who's better at statistics can chime in.

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Pretty sure you cannot calculate it like that, but to be honest no one really knows.
But my best guess is the more issues you have the bigger the risk is, but i would estimate the risk to be much worse then jusy adding the numbers.

your body is constantly fighting a war, it is more likely to fail the more enemies it has.

but this is all guesswork

 

[TheUnseenTheUnheard]

Since there are more than a few cases in the Seattle area, I wonder if more towns here are going to start testing more thoroughly.

 

[vsMIC]

FC

So one thing i was wondering about... if we are looking at the CFR of this with the data we have, do you just add up
the different risk factors in place for a particular person in order to somewhat "estimate" your personal risk or is that not
how it works? Statistics can be tricky sometimes (or always lol)

Say you have diabetes which adds around 6% right? then you add the fact that you're over 50, which adds about 3% and the fact that you're male, which adds another 3% (don't quote me on the actuel %es, they may not be the exact ones, just something in the ballpark to get the concept) Would this all add up to a personal risk of 12% of not surviving an infection or am i completely off the mark here? Glad if someone who's better at statistics can chime in.

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does not work like that, just adding up the % inflates the risk incorrectly.

 

[Deleted member 16516]

Thai first victim, 35 years old.

Thailand records first coronavirus death

Thailand has recorded its first coronavirus death.

www.bangkokpost.com

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Fighting Dengue fever and contracting Covid-19 on top of it. It was just too much for his body to take. RIP to him.

 

[jem]

I repeat this cause people rarely mention these tips:

1- Your nose is a spaceport for the virus if not dry; it will try to cause you to sneeze to spread to other hosts. Keep your nose dry. If you live in a cold country, breathing will cause condensation in your nose. As soon as you get inside, go wipe the inside of your nose with toilet paper or tissue paper to get the moisture out, wash your face a bit, then wash your hands. Do NOT blow your nose! You'll spread germs. Just wipe the inside of your nostrils.

2- Your ears are an infection pathway! Never put your fingers in your ears and don't let water in! When you take a shower you must use earplugs and if you don't have any use toilet paper or tissue paper. If you get some water in, lean your head sideways to get it out, but don't touch the inside of your ears and don't use q-tips either!

3- If you take a shower, keep water out of your mouth/throat! The speed pf the spray can cause water to stuck in the back of your throat, which can favor infection just like your nose being moist. It's not uncommon to catch a cold soon after accidentally getting a spray of water in the back of your throat.

4- Stay warm, the immune system is weaker when it's cold to save energy since pathogens are usually less active in the cold, but we live in a world where the temperature can fluctuate wildly due to modernization, our immune system doesn't necessarily adjust itself that quickly.

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Where are you getting these "tips" from?

Having a dry nose is not going help you stop infection, it's going to do the opposite.

Mucous is one of the body's first lines of defense against infection - it traps and flushes viruses etc. to help stop them getting deeper into the body.

 

[iamaustrian]

Fighting Dengue fever and contracting Covid-19 on top of it. It was just too much for his body to take. RIP to him.

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Dengue is so bad. Our tour manager got it in indonesia and once he recovered he moved to a non dengue area because a second infection can be lethal.
Besides malaria truely one of the great plagues these days

 

[iamaustrian]

Where are you getting these "tips" from?

Having a dry nose is not going help you stop infection, it's going to do the opposite.

Mucous is one of the body's first lines of defense against infection - it traps and flushes viruses etc. to help stop them getting deeper into the body.

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Yeah, he should edit his post. hence my reply in the upper section of this page

 

[endlessflood]

Haven't they gotten it under control now?

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We had our first COVID-19 death today (a 78-year-old passenger from the Diamond Princess).

Also we've just had a couple of new COVID-19 cases (and a number of people who'd been in close contact with them are now in quarantine while waiting for test results) in people who've recently returned from Iran.

We've already banned Iranian travellers, but these entered the country before the ban was implemented.

 

[Fubar]

What exactly should I or others concerned about this stock up on? Everything I'm hearing sounds like it's going to be Captain Trips.

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For anyone curious, Captain Trips is the fictional disease that spreads and causes most of the events in Stephen King's The Stand.

If it was anything like Captain Trips we'd all be dead already. That killed 99% of the people that got it, and we are at roughly 2-3% now.

That blew through the entire world population in about a month. We are approaching the three month mark and so far so good, relatively.

This Coronavirus is a big deal, it should not be taken lightly, but there are reasons to be optimistic at this stage. It sucks to hear "only 2-3% of people are going to die" but really all you can do is keep your fingers crossed, wash your hands, and try to hold yourself responsible.