3 days average. Can go up to 14. Outlier cases of 24 days are thought to be reinfections
Maybe
Badly. Serious recession en route.
-
Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.
Maybe
I know the difference, I was up at 4am for work today and just got my jargon mixed up. Woman stuff is complicated.
Yes I do. But my father hasn't interacted with the infected for quite some time so we are not panicking (we shouldn't anyway).
If you don't get a fever then you probably don't have this virus. See https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-symptoms/ for the typical symptoms. 98.6% of infected have a fever.
Stop with the damn fear mongering. This is nowhere near a high fatality rate virus to even feel like you do. It's very, very, very likely to stay that way.
Cut off news or this thread, because the panic you feel its just being fed. Nothing good comes from panic and worry.
Prepare, over prepare if you must, but then chill.
It's okay. I've been there bud. I pulled out a menstrual cup for the first time just last week. Didn't know what it was before that.
So, very large pinch of salt time before people start drawing wild conclusions. This post is for stats nerds and should NOT be used as an actual prediction of viral epidemiology.
People keep saying growth of the virus is "exponential", but is it, really?
*looks at computer* Wait a minute, I'm literally running a load of kinetic fitting software, explicitly designed to identify whether something is exponential or not.
Since I was doing some reaction kinetics for work, so I thought I'd plug the S.Korean numbers in to see what was happening.
I used the last 10 days of data (starting at 30 cases), since before that the stats are unreliable since it was sporadic cases and certainly not "community transmission".
I got a pretty good fit to exponential kinetics. Chi-square error of 10%, r-squared 0.98. I'm not going to give the p-value since the null hypothesis (the virus is not spreading at all) is obviously not true. In my line of work (biological degradation/formation) that would be good enough. The doubling time was 2.3 days. Think of it like a half-life for radioactive decay, but in reverse.
I did this yesterday, so what did my stats predict for today?
2350 total cases.
The actual data:
2337 total cases.
OK, so lets put in today's actual figure and re-run the fit.
The fit is improved (because the figures were a poorer fit at the start when cases weren't being community-spread). Chi square error is 6.0 %, r-squared 0.99.
Doubling time 2.2 days
95% Confidence limit (lol, do not take this seriously, it doesn't mean what you think it does): 2.0-2.4 days
If you're an optimist, then there's a 1 in 5.5 billion chance that the number of cases are due to random error and the virus isn't spreading at all (this student t-test for P is totally silly).
My stats package does an unweighted non-linear fit with first order kinetics and an ordinary least squares fit. Excel will give different results because it does a log-weighted fit that puts more weight on the smaller numbers at the start of the curve (which are most likely to be inaccurate).
Again, take this with metric fucktons of salt, since "positive test results" are only a proxy for the actual spread of the disease. I think these stats are total cases, so recovery is not included.
At some point I might try fitting a recovery curve (I'd need to really fuck about with the stats package to define recovered patients as "metabolites", LOL). In theory, you could get a recovery rate (and even a recovery fraction), though I suspect the fits would be complete shit since there are too many variables and they won't be distributed in the same way as the bacterial metabolism that the stats package is designed for).
Remember, I am not a doctor. I am using tools that are not designed for epidemiology, and the fact that cases are exponential in South Korea does not mean that things cannot be controlled. Very specifically, China has controlled the exponential spread in Hubei, so don't extrapolate to the end of human civilisation because that would be stupid and wrong... oh no.
People keep saying growth of the virus is "exponential", but is it, really?
*looks at computer* Wait a minute, I'm literally running a load of kinetic fitting software, explicitly designed to identify whether something is exponential or not.
Since I was doing some reaction kinetics for work, so I thought I'd plug the S.Korean numbers in to see what was happening.
I used the last 10 days of data (starting at 30 cases), since before that the stats are unreliable since it was sporadic cases and certainly not "community transmission".
I got a pretty good fit to exponential kinetics. Chi-square error of 10%, r-squared 0.98. I'm not going to give the p-value since the null hypothesis (the virus is not spreading at all) is obviously not true. In my line of work (biological degradation/formation) that would be good enough. The doubling time was 2.3 days. Think of it like a half-life for radioactive decay, but in reverse.
I did this yesterday, so what did my stats predict for today?
2350 total cases.
The actual data:
2337 total cases.
OK, so lets put in today's actual figure and re-run the fit.
The fit is improved (because the figures were a poorer fit at the start when cases weren't being community-spread). Chi square error is 6.0 %, r-squared 0.99.
Doubling time 2.2 days
95% Confidence limit (lol, do not take this seriously, it doesn't mean what you think it does): 2.0-2.4 days
If you're an optimist, then there's a 1 in 5.5 billion chance that the number of cases are due to random error and the virus isn't spreading at all (this student t-test for P is totally silly).
My stats package does an unweighted non-linear fit with first order kinetics and an ordinary least squares fit. Excel will give different results because it does a log-weighted fit that puts more weight on the smaller numbers at the start of the curve (which are most likely to be inaccurate).
Again, take this with metric fucktons of salt, since "positive test results" are only a proxy for the actual spread of the disease. I think these stats are total cases, so recovery is not included.
At some point I might try fitting a recovery curve (I'd need to really fuck about with the stats package to define recovered patients as "metabolites", LOL). In theory, you could get a recovery rate (and even a recovery fraction), though I suspect the fits would be complete shit since there are too many variables and they won't be distributed in the same way as the bacterial metabolism that the stats package is designed for).
Remember, I am not a doctor. I am using tools that are not designed for epidemiology, and the fact that cases are exponential in South Korea does not mean that things cannot be controlled. Very specifically, China has controlled the exponential spread in Hubei, so don't extrapolate to the end of human civilisation because that would be stupid and wrong... oh no.
62 days until the entire world is infected. Remember, this is a silly maths extrapolation and should be taken as proof that the model is not the reality when we are all still posting here in May.
So this is starting to spread in Sweden now aswell from people returning from Italy and Iran. There are only 7 confirmed cases so far but the problem is that they dont screen anyone returning from Iran or Italy and just tell people to call the medical advice line if they are feeling sick.
We also have the biggest ski competition in the world called Vasaloppet this sunday with over 58 000 participants and there will be several people from Italy participating in the race but nobody seems to care.
The swedish goverment cant be proactive when it comes to anything and just like the swedish people they are terrified of offending anyone so they wont hinder people from traveling back and forth to Iran and Italy before its too late.
We also have the biggest ski competition in the world called Vasaloppet this sunday with over 58 000 participants and there will be several people from Italy participating in the race but nobody seems to care.
The swedish goverment cant be proactive when it comes to anything and just like the swedish people they are terrified of offending anyone so they wont hinder people from traveling back and forth to Iran and Italy before its too late.
User Banned (Permanent): Troll account
I am considering killing myself, so that there is no chance of infection. Not gonna let the virus win!
Finally, someone taking charge of the situation and showing people how it's done.
Italy was the first country to ban people from certain places, look where are they now.
What is projection infected number in Iran? The fatality rate is absurdly high and even the highest ranking politicians from government got infected. I think the real number would be pretty high?
I am quite afraid the virus would spread to highly populated developing counties like India and Pakistan soon.
I am quite afraid the virus would spread to highly populated developing counties like India and Pakistan soon.
Toilet paper is also sold out. Luckily, I bought a few packages a week ago. It should last me a month.
So looking at this map, does anyone have any ideas on why this thing is not getting a foothold in south-east Asia? Considering public government hospitals in India are run down and lack basic hygiene, equipment and facilities and the government is incompetent, if this thing gets to India it would spread like wildfire. Which is why I am surprised that India is still stuck with those 3 original cases in the South - medical students who were studying in Wuhan - and all 3 have already been cleared of the infection and released. Sri Lanka's one case has also recovered as has Nepal's.
Consider the populations of India, Sri-Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal. India at least has a billion people. And currently there are 2 cases in Pakistan and that's it.
A graduate student I was talking to suggested that south-East Asians maybe have a difference in their ACE2 receptors that make it harder for the nCoV to be fatal or take hold? There was a study someone here mentioned where smokers - who express higher levels of ACE2 - have higher rates of fatality. Or maybe it's differences in temperature? It's in the mid to late thirties (Celsius) in a lot of south-east Asia right now. There's nothing in Africa either - and we have warmer temps there as well.
Or maybe there are cases and it's just not getting reported...
I was just in a long line for some toilet paper right now (Osaka). Got off my ass in time.
Was at a rum tasting event last night, where the host basically walked around filling everyone's glasses (obviously touching everyone's glasses in the process)... we all then proceeded to share around a bunch of different cocktails etc (sharing straws, glasses and then like).
All of us regular travellers with large social circles... idiocy in hindsight, but you just don't think to change normal behaviour until it's too late.
All of us regular travellers with large social circles... idiocy in hindsight, but you just don't think to change normal behaviour until it's too late.
I wish I did some more prepping than the bare minimum. Was trying to to panic too much but I definitely don't have enough for weeks. Especially toilet paper which seems to be going out in other countries.
I also advised my gf to do some of her own prepping but she did not. So if things run out I'll have to stretch my supply for us both.
I also advised my gf to do some of her own prepping but she did not. So if things run out I'll have to stretch my supply for us both.
I don't really know how this self isolation stuff will work in shared accommodation. I'm the only one in my house/workplace who seems to be watching this and taking it seriously, however if it comes to it I don't think I have anyway of avoiding my more head-in-the-sands housemates from infecting me. One of them has diabetes too.
I'm sort of in that acceptance phase now where this is a thing I don't really have much control over, much like the world economy. I'll do my best, but it is what it is. I'm definitely not going to go home either as I don't want to risk bringing it from Galway to Tipperary. Galway seems primed to be one of those hotspots if it does spread.
I'm sort of in that acceptance phase now where this is a thing I don't really have much control over, much like the world economy. I'll do my best, but it is what it is. I'm definitely not going to go home either as I don't want to risk bringing it from Galway to Tipperary. Galway seems primed to be one of those hotspots if it does spread.
I believe Pakistan already has confirmed cases.
EDIT: india as well.
Last edited:
The test cost $5 according to WHO. There should be more mass testing, better be safe than sorry later.
And the US has only done 450 test so far as last reported, money isn't the issue.
A actual lab that is equiped to do the actual test to confirm the result, the manpower and resource needed to get the sample, etc.
I'm sure it has been in various countries for a while, it just happens that some countries started to actually notice/test for it.
I posted something before but the US only has like 4 public labs that can do the tests? What about private labs? And that some of the test kits they had were not working right.
I'm sorry but what on earth are you talking about? This is absolutely ridiculous
What toilet paper thing in Japan?
The only toilet paper thing in Taiwan was bulk seller spreading rumor that facemask material is the same as toilet paper, sparking a quick buy.
But the government stepped in to quell the rumor, and has brought in 6 individual and 1 bulkd seller for question, where they will most likely be charged and fined.
散布衛生紙缺貨假訊息 調局鎖定6網友及某貿易商調查 - 社會
武漢肺炎疫情升溫，口罩之亂尚未平息，網路又謠傳衛生紙、尿布缺貨假訊息，導致民眾搶購，調查局9日表示，已掌握6名網友在臉書散布衛生紙、尿布假訊息，以及某貿易商散布國際紙漿短缺，囤貨衛生紙及衛生棉的假訊息，
www.chinatimes.com
We were from the UK but got the drink in Ibiza as it was on the top shelf of the alcohol store.
We quickly coined the term after everyone immediately threw up after taking a shot of the stuff.
Earlier today/late last night maybe, people were posting pictures of a handful of stores being out of toilet paper. Rumor spread that its cause of the virus... for... reasons? This made people start buying it in bulk, which of course caused stores to run out, which made it spread more. Theres no reason for the toilet paper, but "its running out so get it while you can!!!!" logic took over.
Some think its because Japan gets their toilet paper from China so it will start running out, which if it did would have happened weeks ago, and Japan only gets a super minuscule amount of it from China either way.
It's still good work on something that's not exactly linear with a lot of confounding. Thanks for a ripping read.
Last edited:
Shortages of masks in Italy were to be expected, since we saw what happened elsewhere.
Perhaps it bears reiterating that unless you yourself are sick or are caring for/visiting a sick person, wearing a mask is of little use. Healthcare workers need them more.
Perhaps it bears reiterating that unless you yourself are sick or are caring for/visiting a sick person, wearing a mask is of little use. Healthcare workers need them more.
Italy has activated the EU's Civil Protection Mechanism, requesting protective facemasks. We have relayed the request to all EU countries to mobilise assistance. We are in permanent contact with Italian authorities and will do all we can to help. #COVID19
In Italy they are investigating a couple people who started a "chainmail" style of fake news fear mongering streak on WhatsApp. They claimed to have inside info about Milan being ready to be on complete lockdown, nobody in and nobody out, so everyone was urged to buy everything they can. It is believed this is one of the reasons shops got emptied, as it caused a chain reaction of people who may not be fearing the virus to also rush to shops to make sure they don't find them empty when they need supplies.
If someone made that kind of shit up in Japan as well, hopefully he pays. This virus is bad enough as is, no need to spread conspiracy theories or throw fake alarms into the mix.
Imagine if the french still doing 'cheek kiss' greetings in the midst of outbreak
Where you read that?
It's a lab test.
Plus since it's involve bio stuff probably the containment for the sample is more than 5 dollar.
Here in Singapore you get tested only if you are showing symptom and you have meet someone that is infected cannot be only 5 dollar, if the requirement are so strict.
(i think also if you get pneumonia now you get tested)
I recall one of the WHO people said that during yesterday's press conference. Presumably referring to a test kit?
Yeah. I fear that this really is the case. India is going to be a disaster I fear. Makes me a bit nervous about my upcoming trip there in two weeks. Will also be stopping in Netherlands for a few hours so that second reported case there today isn't helping. D:
Nothing is selling out here yet, but knowing the people around here the dumbest shit will be emptied lol
I'll probably hit the supermarket today to pick up a couple things that I would end up using anyway. I've read the basic idea is to get about two weeks worth of non-perishable food, potential flu meds, and toilet paper. Is that about it?
I live about an hour or so outside of New York City.
I live about an hour or so outside of New York City.