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chezzymann

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,042
I got a new job offer (live in Texas), but right now I'm the main graphic designer at my company and they can't fire me or shit wouldn't get done ever, and I would be joining a team of 12 with better pay and benefits. I'm seriously considering turning the offer down cause if this virus fucks up the economy I could see mass layoffs everywhere and it would be more likely for that to be me on a team of 12.
 

DickGrayson

Alt Account
Member
Jan 30, 2020
941
Guys, seems containment is impossible at this rate, so I ask you... how does a virus like this stops spreading? Never?

Flu part 2 every year?

Since the natural reservoir of this virus is based in an animal that people come into close contact with on a regular basis, it will never really be eradicated.

However, there are two ways to stop it's spread:

1) Isolate infected people so that it cannot be transferred from person to person

2) Inoculate enough of the population that herd immunity stops it from being able to spread

Neither are likely to be effective, though #2 has a chance if the virus doesn't mutate wildly from year to year.
 

clay_ghost

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,368
User warned: Ignoring staff post with regard to fearmongering
Guys, seems containment is impossible at this rate, so I ask you... how does a virus like this stops spreading? Never?

Flu part 2 every year?

Every year will be crazy. Globalization will halt, things will go super expensive , Tourism world wide will be affected and the economy may never have the chance to recover.

And many people will die :(
 

Mendrox

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
9,439
(copying my post from another thread as I think this is more fitting)

Mortality rate is currently at 3.4% and climbing. This is now about 40-50 times more deadly than flu. I think people in Europe and other western countries are still in disbelief and denial about how very very serious this is. Check infection growth rate outside china currently and compare that to infection rate in China in January. Hmm hmm...

German twitter is a bush fire with people only joking around and no one taking it serious.
 

Alastor3

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
8,297
I don't think it's reinfection occurring; COVID-19 seems to be behaving kinda like the chicken pox, where once you get it, it lies dormant inside for years. Stress (among other things) can activate it into shingles. The recovered patients don't seem to have symptoms anymore, but still have the virus.
what are you talking about lol ''seems to behaving like chicken pox'' are you a doctor? no, so don't say things like that. We don't know the extent of the virus because it's a new virus, there is no way to know all of those information. The only few cases we saw is one person still have traces in his fecas matter after 40 days, that doesn't mean it ''lies dormant inside for years''
 

LegendofJoe

Member
Oct 28, 2017
12,086
Arkansas, USA
My wife is an epidemiologist specializing in zoonotic diseases and she concurs that this will likely be a seasonal issue. She told me that most people will likely be infected at some point.
 

RolandGunner

Member
Oct 30, 2017
8,524
I got a new job offer (live in Texas), but right now I'm the main graphic designer at my company and they can't fire me or shit wouldn't get done ever, and I would be joining a team of 12 with better pay and benefits. I'm seriously considering turning the offer down cause if this virus fucks up the economy I could see mass layoffs everywhere and it would be more likely for that to be me on a team of 12.

Unless you desperately need a job and can't afford being laid off this seems like a bad idea. Even in the 2009 recession 85% of people kept their job. You'd be turning down a better gig for something that may not even be an issue in two weeks.
 

Doc Holliday

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,815
If you don't want to get scared don't listen to today's The Daily. The Nyt health reporter basically compares this to the 1918 flu. He doesn't sound like an alarmist either.
 

spam musubi

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,381
Quoting myself for the morning crowd, with some edits:

Dr. Eric Ding is an epidemiologist who has been covering this situation since the beginning, he's been very level headed but also calls things out when there is a lack of proper process. He's done a podcast interview and it's a pretty good summary of the current situation, if anyone is interested: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podca...ic-is-inevitable/id1438148082?i=1000466793429

Some key points:
- Seems likely that most people will get it eventually (in months, maybe years) - some experts estimate 40-70% of the world population. Most will probably be fine, but the real challenge is the strain on the healthcare system (I recognize that there are immunocompromised and elderly people and I don't mean to minimize that, I'm just quoting him). We don't have enough beds, masks, protective gear
- It's embarrassing that we have only tested 450 people so far, Korea is testing thousands daily and we won't reach a thousand by the end of the month
- Testing needs to be free, otherwise poor people will go undetected and keep spreading
- No need to panic, since a lot of people will get it there isn't much to do avoid it. Just exercise hygiene, be prepared with supplies in case you need to work from home or quarantine yourself. Be cautious and measured, but don't panic. Panic leads to chaos. There is no need to fear this if you know that you are probably going to get it. The key focus should be on putting pressure on the government to respond intelligently and slowing the spread to reduce the strain on the system.
- It's more contagious and deadly than the flu, but not the end of the world. Many people have immunity to the flu either through living through it or vaccines, so the public is more susceptible to this.
- Tests aren't perfect, sometimes a person can test negative if they have a small amount of the virus in their system, and it can get reactivated later on under circumstances like stress. Cases that seem to relapse are likely people who weren't fully cured to begin with.
- Worldwide case numbers likely vastly underreported. USA will likely start taking it more seriously when someone dies on US soil
- Masks aren't perfect but they do prevent some droplets from being passed around to others if you're sick

Note that the key points are my interpretation and you are better off listening to the expert than my summary of him.
 

Mik2121

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,943
Japan
Every year will be crazy. Globalization will halt, things will go super expensive , Tourism world wide will be affected and the economy may never have the chance to recover.

And many people will die :(
Get out of here with that stuff. This will either be eventually treated like the flu, or it will something that eventually fades out. We are not seeing the end of our economy and our society, lmao.
 

Hero_of_the_Day

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
17,347
So, what is this like for a typical healthy person to get?

I'm just trying to imagine this thing in our (US) society where fucking nobody can afford to take off of work, let alone afford a doctor's visit.
 

Min

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,074
Get out of here with that stuff. This will either be eventually treated like the flu, or it will something that eventually fades out. We are not seeing the end of our economy and our society, lmao.

Also if a global pandemic breaks out where the majority of cases are mild/non-life threatening illness then the majority of the population will have built an immunity to the disease making it harder to spread in successive years without mutating.
 

DickGrayson

Alt Account
Member
Jan 30, 2020
941
So, what is this like for a typical healthy person to get?

I'm just trying to imagine this thing in our (US) society where fucking nobody can afford to take off of work, let alone afford a doctor's visit.

It's symptoms and severity can range from a mild cold to a severe flu in a healthy person.

Most healthy people will exhibit mild symptoms and in the US most people with mild symptoms will go out into the community instead of self isolation.
 

Shining Star

Banned
May 14, 2019
4,458
I have to travel to London for work in July, should I be worried? I don't know, it seems like traveling is a bad idea right now.
 

Nintenleo

Member
Nov 9, 2017
4,212
Italy
If you don't want to get scared don't listen to today's The Daily. The Nyt health reporter basically compares this to the 1918 flu. He doesn't sound like an alarmist either.
I don't know how they are comparable.
The 1918 flu (that was an H1N1 virus) had a mortality rate of 20% and it mostly killed adult people with no preconditions. Having some immunodeficiency was actually an advantage in defeating the virus. That shit was scary and it spread (also) because the initial stages of the pandemic was censored in most of the world, Spain excluded.
 

DickGrayson

Alt Account
Member
Jan 30, 2020
941
I have to travel to London for work in July, should I be worried? I don't know, it seems like traveling is a bad idea right now.

It's February.

None of us have the prognostication ability to see what will be happening in July. Currently, don't worry, because by the time July rolls around it's entirely possible that spread has been mitigated.
 

Mik2121

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,943
Japan
Also if a global pandemic breaks out where the majority of cases are mild/non-life threatening illness then the majority of the population will have built an immunity to the disease making it harder to spread in successive years without mutating.
Exactly. This is still a serious issue, but people thinking this will destroy society are panicking big time.
Hasn't it been summer in China this whole time

Edit: oh neat China's actually northern hemisphere
Oh my god hahaha
 

Fiction

Fanthropologist
Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,776
Elf Tower, New Mexico
Yeah I'm afraid for my brother and dad who both have asthma, and my mum who is in a care home for Alzheimer's. Those posts about "only at risk groups" need some empathy.
I'm on immunosuppressants and started a course of heavy steroids today. If I get it I'm kinda fucked. I also just moved my parents in. Mom is 63 and has MS. Pa is 72 and takes blood thinners due to clots in his lungs.

Empathy needs to be better for sure.
 

clay_ghost

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,368
Hasn't it been summer in China this whole time

Edit: oh neat China's actually northern hemisphere


Only Singapore is Summer (almost) all year round. Its hard to verify this theory since we still have import cases.

In respond to the impact this have to our local economy, lots of local companies are freezing wages, reducing salary (mostly management for now) and asking staffs to go on no pay leave :(

One (SATS) also offered early retirement . :(
 

Tremagus

Member
Oct 25, 2017
272
El Paso
With a honeymoon trip scheduled in late May to Japan I'm worried that the spread will eventually make travel just too risky, and I don't even mean actually getting it, but more like countries cracking down on areas that have been more affected than others and barring or quarantining those who recently visited those countries.
 

Trevelyan

User requested permanent ban
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,196
Yeah I'm afraid for my brother and dad who both have asthma, and my mum who is in a care home for Alzheimer's. Those posts about "only at risk groups" need some empathy.
Pretty much this. I have 2 young children, both under the age of 3 and one under 1. If they were to get it I'm terrified of what will happen.
 

Putosaure

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,959
France
I'm just afraid that governments will do the same mistake that China did : waiting too much. I mean, here in France they didn't cancel a soccer match welcoming the Juventus team from Italy, with all its supporters. What could go wrong right ?
 

CelestialAtom

Mambo Number PS5
Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,049
Mild allergies are not considered preconditions that could have an influence on the recovery from the covid19. But, again, as the same virologist said, it's still early to make a definitive claim on this.

So, if his theory is proven to be true, then that would mean people with mild asthma wouldn't be at a greater risk while battling COVID-19?
 

Kendrid

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,129
Chicago, IL
I post this a few days ago but I feel it needs to be repost for new users. Basically it is here to stay for a while and that isn't a big deal to the majority of the population.
www.theatlantic.com

You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus

Most cases are not life-threatening, which is also what makes the virus a historic challenge to contain.
 

Doc Holliday

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,815
I don't know how they are comparable.
The 1918 flu (that was an H1N1 virus) had a mortality rate of 20% and it mostly killed adult people with no preconditions. Having some immunodeficiency was actually an advantage in defeating the virus. That shit was scary and it spread (also) because the initial stages of the pandemic was censored in most of the world, Spain excluded.

Spanish Flu had a mortality rate of 2% not 20%. You're right about everything else tho. He was manly talking about how infectious it is, and mortality rate.

He sounded concerned about the people dying despite having anti inflammatory drugs, respirators and anti biotics for secondary lung infections.
 

apocat

Member
Oct 27, 2017
10,062
I'm on immunosuppressants and started a course of heavy steroids today. If I get it I'm kinda fucked. I also just moved my parents in. Mom is 63 and has MS. Pa is 72 and takes blood thinners due to clots in his lungs.

Empathy needs to be better for sure.

Agreed. I'll likely be fine personally, but both my parents are in their seventies. My dad isn't in mint condition, and my mother also has a pretty debilitating and progressive MS. I could see things take a turn for the worse for both of them if they were infected.
 

IggyChooChoo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,230
I post this a few days ago but I feel it needs to be repost for new users. Basically it is here to stay for a while and that isn't a big deal to the majority of the population.
www.theatlantic.com

You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus

Most cases are not life-threatening, which is also what makes the virus a historic challenge to contain.
As a disease per se it won't affect the majority of people. The way it would impact a majority of people is economic impact, disruption of commerce and supply chains, school/business closings, clogging the ICUs and hospitals with sick people, and crowding out people who need hospital care for any other reason.
 

Foffy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
16,391
How much of a risk is a newborn baby to this kind of virus? My sister is due at the end of April, and I've been wondering if this is something that is like, a red alarm kinda issue.
 

Deleted member 11822

user requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,644
If you don't want to get scared don't listen to today's The Daily. The Nyt health reporter basically compares this to the 1918 flu. He doesn't sound like an alarmist either.

For the most part, it was a non-alarmist report this morning. I did roll my eyes with the initial lead in's overuse of "Pandemic", but for the most part, it was a rational conversation, and I particularly like the part where he admitted that he purchased a box of masks, and felt foolish about it going so far as to say that they could be better used by medical workers.

They also did a good job of putting the CDC's comments into context/perspective, as [at least to me] there were not meant to alarm the population, but rather get everyone to start thinking ahead.
 

Doc Holliday

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,815
2% of all people. Of the infected people I believe it was close to 10% CFR.

I believe it was 2% of infected. From Wikipedia

The World Health Organization estimates that 2–3% of those who were infected died (case-
fatality
ratio). It is estimated that approximately 30 million were killed by the
flu
, or about 1.7% of the world population died. Other estimates range from 17 to 55 million fatalities.
 

Pomerlaw

Erarboreal
Banned
Feb 25, 2018
8,536
Spanish Flu had a mortality rate of 2% not 20%. You're right about everything else tho. He was manly talking about how infectious it is, and mortality rate.

He sounded concerned about the people dying despite having anti inflammatory drugs, respirators and anti biotics for secondary lung infections.

Spanish Flu mortality rate was estimated to be between 10 and 20%.
It killed a lot of healthy young adults.

Medicine was not as good back then and many suffered and died from post infections.

It was a terrible disease.