Novel coronavirus (COVID-19) resources and discussion thread (Discussion guidelines in OP)

Sibylus · Feb 27, 2020

Garchia3.0 said:
Coronavirus far more likely than Sars to bond to human cells due to HIV-like mutation, scientists say

Coronavirus more likely than Sars to bond to human cells, scientists say

Research by team from Nankai University shows new virus has mutated gene similar to those found in HIV and Ebola.

www.scmp.com

Explains the seeming success in slowing the illness with antivirals that have been used for HIV infections. Convergent evolution gifted COVID-19 with a similar novel trait.

hyouko · Feb 27, 2020

Jeebus, the total case growth is *accelerating* in South Korea. Up 29% yesterday, 40% today per Wikipedia.

Culex · Feb 27, 2020

Bass2448 said:
Excuse my lack of knowledge here but are they insinuating that this disease will stick inside the host (Forever?) like HIV? Can our immune system defeat this thing or not?

That's not what the article even close to states. It uses a similar technique to bond to your cells, like Ebola or HIV, both of which are highly transmissible.

Sibylus · Feb 27, 2020

Bass2448 said:
Excuse my lack of knowledge here but are they insinuating that this disease will stick inside the host (Forever?) like HIV? Can our immune system defeat this thing or not?

No. The shared genetics with SARS is still about 80%, and these are changes specifically to the spike protein. Convergent traits do not mean that this will behave in other ways like HIV.

Garchia3.0 · Feb 27, 2020

Edmond Dantès said:
Resilient little thing isn't it. Just full of suprises.

It's super resilient, and we just keep learning more about it as weeks go by.

ZeroDS said:
Man I'm not sure if keeping up with this is good for my mental health. It's kinda terrifying seeing HIV and anthrax comparisons

Think of all this new information as a positive. The more it's known about it, the faster they'll find ways to effectively fight the virus in the upcoming weeks and months.

WinniethePimp · Feb 27, 2020

Bass2448 said:
Excuse my lack of knowledge here but are they insinuating that this disease will stick inside the host (Forever?) like HIV? Can our immune system defeat this thing or not?

We honestly don't know yet. I suppose best not to catch it for now, and if you do, well what can you do? I am getting to the point of trying to not stress out over it as much as i have slowly but surely.... This whole thing can really serve as a stark reminder of our own mortality that we often tend to forget.... Most of us are manically trying to remain in "control" of our lives and of our health when the reality is that that is just not possible beyond a certain point. So yeah, do all you CAN realistically do to not catch this thing, but if you do get it regardless then well...at least you did your part.

HMD · Feb 27, 2020

WinniethePimp said:
We honestly don't know yet. I suppose best not to catch it for now, and if you do, well what can you do? I am getting to the point of trying to not stress out over it as much as i have slowly but surely.... This whole thing can really serve as a stark reminder of our own mortality that we often tend to forget.... Most of us are manically trying to remain in "control" of our lives and of our health when the reality is that that is just not possible beyond a certain point. So yeah, do all you CAN realistically do to not catch this thing, but if you do get it regardless then well...at least you did your part.

My exact mentality right now, beautifully said.

Garchia3.0 · Feb 27, 2020

Coronavirus: US confirms new case, Germany says it's at the beginning of an epidemic

As of Wednesday, more than 81,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported, resulting in at least 2,764 deaths.

www.cnbc.com

Bass2448 · Feb 27, 2020

Culex said:
That's not what the article even close to states. It uses a similar technique to bond to your cells, like Ebola or HIV, both of which are highly transmissible.

WinniethePimp said:
We honestly don't know yet. I suppose best not to catch it for now, and if you do, well what can you do? I am getting to the point of trying to not stress out over it as much as i have slowly but surely.... This whole thing can really serve as a stark reminder of our own mortality that we often tend to forget.... Most of us are manically trying to remain in "control" of our lives and of our health when the reality is that that is just not possible beyond a certain point. So yeah, do all you CAN realistically do to not catch this thing, but if you do get it regardless then well...at least you did your part.

Culex said:
That's not what the article even close to states. It uses a similar technique to bond to your cells, like Ebola or HIV, both of which are highly transmissible.

Good. I'm just trying to get informed here and craft an "oh shit" plan incase it does flare up here in the US. It is still very concerning that previously infected folk can go symptomless and "defeat" it but still spread it weeks afterward.

SharpX68K · Feb 27, 2020

Garchia3.0 said:
Coronavirus far more likely than Sars to bond to human cells due to HIV-like mutation, scientists say

Coronavirus more likely than Sars to bond to human cells, scientists say

Research by team from Nankai University shows new virus has mutated gene similar to those found in HIV and Ebola.

www.scmp.com

I really have a hard time believing that is just a natural mutation. I mean without going full-on conspiracy shit, my gut feeling is a less dangerous version of a coronavirus was at least tampered with.

CampFreddie · Feb 27, 2020

Garchia3.0 said:
Coronavirus far more likely than Sars to bond to human cells due to HIV-like mutation, scientists say

Coronavirus more likely than Sars to bond to human cells, scientists say

Research by team from Nankai University shows new virus has mutated gene similar to those found in HIV and Ebola.

www.scmp.com

This is REALLY clickbaity.
Flu (influenza A) has the same furin-mediated binding. But so do HIV and Ebola, so guess what they put in the news article...

The furin binding site has nothing to do with how deadly the disease is. It just explains how it infects human cells. This news should neither cause panic, nor make you feel safer. It's just an explanation for basic facts that we already know (the virus infects humans and spreads person-to-person).
It is important because it's something that a lot of human-to-human transmitted viruses have, while a lot of animal viruses don't have. If a virus can use human
It is thought that this is one important mutation that makes SARS-CoV-2 different from it's bat-virus ancestors. It's one reason why most bat coronaviruses don't affect humans.

Technically, the furin binding site means that the virus can use furin (an enzyme that naturally exists in our bodies) to fuse the virus cell to the target cell.
Here's a good technical explainer.
http://www.virology.ws/2020/02/13/furin-cleavage-site-in-the-sars-cov-2-coronavirus-glycoprotein/

Redeye97 · Feb 27, 2020

Welp, my prefecture went from a handful of cases to the nation's hotbed rather quickly. Hokkaido was supposed to insulated from this thanks to it's lack of urban centers and relative isolation. Now my small town has more confirmed cases than many cities with large populations.

To anyone living away from large cities or in the countryside, this can reach you too. Practice the same care as you would if you we're in a large city. People in my area are finding out the hard way.

Deleted member 43 · Feb 27, 2020

SharpX68K said:
I really have a hard time believing that is just a natural mutation. I mean without going full-on conspiracy shit, my gut feeling is a less dangerous version of a coronavirus was at least tampered with.

See above. This mutation isn't exotic.

SharpX68K · Feb 27, 2020

Matt said:
See above. This mutation isn't exotic.

I see, okay it makes more sense now.

ara · Feb 27, 2020

TheHunter said:
Yes

Don't make posts like these when you don't seem to know what you're talking about. If you do, elaborate.

Shorty11857 · Feb 27, 2020

Was planning on going to Italy in two months for my honeymoon. Everything's been booked and is non refundable. Starting to really worry about this now

Perzeval · Feb 27, 2020

A factory in Uppsala, Sweden that manifactures allergy tests has closed and told all of its 700 employees to work from home.

CampFreddie · Feb 27, 2020

SharpX68K said:
I really have a hard time believing that is just a natural mutation. I mean without going full-on conspiracy shit, my gut feeling is a less dangerous version of a coronavirus was at least tampered with.

I think the TWIV podcast covers this somewhere. Around 40-50 minutes in, I think.
The COV binding sites are a bit wierd. Computer models based on existing knowledge would have said "nope, that's probably not gonna work".
If you were to design a virus (which is not something that could easily be done), you'd get it to use a something similar to a known receptor-binding site.
This virus looks new, in ways that suggest that evolution got lucky (well, unlucky for us).

Garchia3.0 · Feb 27, 2020

CampFreddie said:
This is REALLY clickbaity.
Flu (influenza A) has the same furin-mediated binding. But so do HIV and Ebola, so guess what they put in the news article...

This is why it's important to have community discussions on the matter. We get additional information that can bring things into perspective.

Panic Freak · Feb 27, 2020

The Trump administration's incompetence has never had me more freaked out. This is going to be a disaster.

MasterChumly · Feb 27, 2020

Panic Freak said:
The Trump administration's incompetence has never had me more freaked out. This is going to be a disaster.

Yea that press conference last night was an absolute clusterfuck. Plus they already had a disastrous week responding to it in the first place

SolidSnakex · Feb 27, 2020

Panic Freak said:
The Trump administration's incompetence has never had me more freaked out. This is going to be a disaster.

It's a real mess. On one hand he seems legitimately freaked out that this could hurt his re-election chances. But then his solution to that is to put a guy who thinks you can pray away HIV in charge of the situation. Which to me at least reads like he wants someone that'll attempt to sugar coat the situation for the public in a way that a medical professional would be much less likely to do.

TeaToe · Feb 27, 2020

There is a major flaw in the system.

Culex · Feb 27, 2020

Biggest issue right now is not that this virus is deadly, but the impact on human productivity. Not even good and services, but transportation, too. It's going to wreck the global economy this year.

Kyrios · Feb 27, 2020

Panic Freak said:
The Trump administration's incompetence has never had me more freaked out. This is going to be a disaster.

That's what has me worried. He's still going around saying everything's cool, nothing big will happen and he appoints Mr. Let's Pray it Away as head of the pandemic response. Yeah this isn't a good combo.

Just saw on the local news that a guy flew in from Italy in a New York area airport (forget which one) and he supposedly flew through customs and was only told to monitor his health. We're not ready.

I'm not in panic mode, just really concerned at this point. Would be more comfortable with not having complete morons in charge of this.

maabus1999 · Feb 27, 2020

Deoster_86 said:
Wow there is a major flaw in the system.

I'm sure the original guidance included foreign travel to be tested. Now with a possible community case I would imagine new guidelines are coming. Next question will be capacity.

7aged · Feb 27, 2020

Saudi Arabia bans foreign pilgrims as Japan plans to close schools
Countries around world scramble to halt spread of virus that has so far killed 3,000 people

Saudi Arabia has taken the unprecedented step of banning foreign pilgrims from entering the country five months before the annual hajj pilgrimages, while Japan will close its schools next week as countries around the world scramble to halt the spread of the coronavirus.

Source: The Guardian

Saudi Arabia has suspended entry to the country for Umrah (the mini pilgrimage). They've also, according to Emirates airline, denied entry to travelers coming from outbreak countries. There's generally been an eerie silence coming from the government, particularly since infection has been spreading all around surrounding countries. This feels belated.

You'd think the country has good experience managing epidemics, hosting millions of pilgrims from across the world (many of them not in the best of health) every year. But local confidence has been knocked in recent years, after the handling of the MERS Coronavirus and the rumour mill in the country is raging with stories of suspected cases put into secret quarantine wards away from the public eye.

DickGrayson · Feb 27, 2020

When at all possible, can you please include the text of Tweets so that those of us without access to Twitter at work can still see what's being talked about?

entremet · Feb 27, 2020

Info on

Deoster_86 said:
There is a major flaw in the system.

Article link:

Coronavirus Diagnosis in California Highlights Testing Flaws (Published 2020)

Doctors suspected infection with the virus, but the patient did not fit the federal criteria and was not tested for days.

www.nytimes.com

Feds really messing up. With the Trump Administration cutting CDC, NHS funding and moving their pandemic program from 40 to 10 countries, it's so much incompetence.

GatsGatsby · Feb 27, 2020

My bf managed to get his flight out of South Korea changed from March 12th to March 5th. That puts me a little more at ease but I am imposing my own quarantine period on him since everyone in my house has asthma the common cold fucks with us bad.

Nintenleo · Feb 27, 2020

Some good news: in Italy the first cases are recovering and they're testing negative. Today we got 37 recovered only in the Lombardia area.

Coronavirus - Salute & Benessere

In Lombardia sono guarite 37 persone. Fontana in autoisolamento a Milano per il contagio di una sua collaboratrice. Conte invita all'unità. Mamma positiva partorisce a Piacenza, neonato negativo. Sequestrate le cartelle cliniche del 'paziente 1'. In Liguria altri 4 positivi, provengono tutti...

www.ansa.it

Fiction · Feb 27, 2020

jem said:
How many people are genuinely dismissing it though?

There are people saying not to panic, but that's very different from dismissing it.

The problem, to me, the people repeated saying that people shouldn't worry because its 'like the flu' and only at risk groups will be effected, ignoring the fact that at risk groups literally post here and not everyone is a healthy 22 year old male.

entremet · Feb 27, 2020

Fiction said:
The problem, to me, the people repeated saying that people shouldn't worry because its 'like the flu' and only at risk groups will be effected, ignoring the fact that at risk groups literally post here and not everyone is a healthy 22 year old male.

I'm not afraid of getting it. I'm afraid of being a vector. Especially since I live in a high-density city.

Foffy · Feb 27, 2020

Culex said:
Biggest issue right now is not that this virus is deadly, but the impact on human productivity. Not even good and services, but transportation, too. It's going to wreck the global economy this year.

This of course means it hurts the most precarious in our society. I couldn't give a shit about the stock market, but this will impact people who are forced to survive via the gig economy. Uber drivers are probably at crazy high risk of illness than most other workers, and likely are in that "poor enough" threshold to be unable to afford the time and money to seek care.

TheHunter · Feb 27, 2020

ara said:
Don't make posts like these when you don't seem to know what you're talking about. If you do, elaborate.

It means it's highly transmissible and hard to contain.

Serious Sam · Feb 27, 2020

(copying my post from another thread as I think this is more fitting)

Mortality rate is currently at 3.4% and climbing. This is now about 40-50 times more deadly than flu. I think people in Europe and other western countries are still in disbelief and denial about how very very serious this is. Check infection growth rate outside china currently and compare that to infection rate in China in January. Hmm hmm...

Rowsdower · Feb 27, 2020

I don't think it's reinfection occurring; COVID-19 seems to be behaving kinda like the chicken pox, where once you get it, it lies dormant inside for years. Stress (among other things) can activate it into shingles. The recovered patients don't seem to have symptoms anymore, but still have the virus.

Westbahnhof · Feb 27, 2020

I hope people won't freak out too much here in Austria, now that we got our first confirmed case.
I work in a place with loads of tourists and travelers, and certain coworkers (people with a flair for the dramatic and a love for conspiracies) are already starting to stoke the flames. It's frustrating.

JAGMASK · Feb 27, 2020

Fiction said:
The problem, to me, the people repeated saying that people shouldn't worry because its 'like the flu' and only at risk groups will be effected, ignoring the fact that at risk groups literally post here and not everyone is a healthy 22 year old male.

Yeah I'm afraid for my brother and dad who both have asthma, and my mum who is in a care home for Alzheimer's. Those posts about "only at risk groups" need some empathy.

cameron · Feb 27, 2020

Garchia3.0 · Feb 27, 2020

I just wanted to add it also reflects the rapid increase in South Korea's effort to screen as many people as they possibly can. The numbers will only keep rising as they test more patients.

Rowsdower · Feb 27, 2020

JAMA released a paper on 72000 patients in China.

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China—Summary of a China CDC Report

This Viewpoint summarizes key epidemiologic and clinical findings from all cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) reported through February 11, 2020, in mainland China, and case trends in response to government attempts to control and contain the infection.

jamanetwork.com

Some results:

72 314 Cases (as of February 11, 2020)
- Confirmed cases: 44 672 (62%)
- Suspected cases: 16 186 (22%)
- Diagnosed cases: 10 567 (15%)
- Asymptomatic cases: 889 (1%)
Age distribution (N = 44 672)
- ≥80 years: 3% (1408 cases)
- 30-79 years: 87% (38 680 cases)
- 20-29 years: 8% (3619 cases)
- 10-19 years: 1% (549 cases)
- <10 years: 1% (416 cases)
Spectrum of disease (N = 44 415)
- Mild: 81% (36 160 cases)
- Severe: 14% (6168 cases)
- Critical: 5% (2087 cases)
Case-fatality rate
- 2.3% (1023 of 44 672 confirmed cases)
- 14.8% in patients aged ≥80 years (208 of 1408)
- 8.0% in patients aged 70-79 years (312 of 3918)
- 49.0% in critical cases (1023 of 2087)
Health care personnel infected
- 3.8% (1716 of 44 672)
- 63% in Wuhan (1080 of 1716)
- 14.8% cases classified as severe or critical (247 of 1668)
- 5 deaths

Most case patients were 30 to 79 years of age (87%), 1% were aged 9 years or younger, 1% were aged 10 to 19 years, and 3% were age 80 years or older. Most cases were diagnosed in Hubei Province (75%) and most reported Wuhan-related exposures (86%; ie, Wuhan resident or visitor or close contact with Wuhan resident or visitor). Most cases were classified as mild (81%; ie, nonpneumonia and mild pneumonia). However, 14% were severe (ie, dyspnea, respiratory frequency ≥30/min, blood oxygen saturation ≤93%, partial pressure of arterial oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen ratio <300, and/or lung infiltrates >50% within 24 to 48 hours), and 5% were critical (ie, respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction or failure)

The overall case-fatality rate (CFR) was 2.3% (1023 deaths among 44 672 confirmed cases). No deaths occurred in the group aged 9 years and younger, but cases in those aged 70 to 79 years had an 8.0% CFR and cases in those aged 80 years and older had a 14.8% CFR. No deaths were reported among mild and severe cases. The CFR was 49.0% among critical cases. CFR was elevated among those with preexisting comorbid conditions—10.5% for cardiovascular disease, 7.3% for diabetes, 6.3% for chronic respiratory disease, 6.0% for hypertension, and 5.6% for cancer. Among the 44 672 cases, a total of 1716 were health workers (3.8%), 1080 of whom were in Wuhan (63%). Overall, 14.8% of confirmed cases among health workers were classified as severe or critical and 5 deaths were observed.1

Monkey_Plunkett · Feb 27, 2020

I've been following this guy, Dr John Campbell on youtube for the past week or so, hes been giving good informative daily updates on the current state off affairs regarding the virus.

Garchia3.0 · Feb 27, 2020

Ramble · Feb 27, 2020

WinniethePimp said:
I was wondering...does seasonal allergy asthma count as a preexisting condition? Because a LOT of people have allergic asthma due to Hayfever etc., this thing will coincide with allergy season in a lot of places over the world too so kinda worried about that hmm...

Any respiratory issue should be of concern. Any immunosupressive issue should be of concern.

If people suffer from things like seasonal allergies, they need to be proactive in taking their medicines to give them the best chance of recovery.

Rowsdower · Feb 27, 2020

Yea Dr Campbell is really good to follow on this.

Nintenleo · Feb 27, 2020

Mild allergy asthma seems to be ininfluent to the disease. That's what an italian virologist said on tv yesterday, but I'm afraid I can't link a source to it.

Jmdajr · Feb 27, 2020

Shorty11857 said:
Was planning on going to Italy in two months for my honeymoon. Everything's been booked and is non refundable. Starting to really worry about this now

I think travel insurance buys are going to sky rocket.

giallo · Feb 27, 2020

You can watch the WHO's live briefing here:

Opa-Opa · Feb 27, 2020

Guys, seems containment is impossible at this rate, so I ask you... how does a virus like this stops spreading? Never?

Flu part 2 every year?

Novel coronavirus (COVID-19) resources and discussion thread (Discussion guidelines in OP)

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