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sapien85

Banned
Nov 8, 2017
5,427

Excerpts:

North Carolina has at least 32,000 ballots still to be counted, and as many as 171,000, according to data from the state.

Some of the uncertainty is because the biggest chunk of the 171,000 possible remaining votes comes from 98,000 potential mail-in ballots, as of Friday morning. It won't be known until Nov. 12 exactly how many of those 98,000 people actually mailed in their ballots on time, and if so, who they voted for.

However, state officials said Friday that since Election Day on Tuesday an additional 32,000 mail-in ballots arrived and will be counted. There are also as many as 41,000 additional "provisional" ballots that could be counted. Voters cast provisional ballots when they go to vote but face questions about their eligibility or some other problem. In 2016, the state ended up counting just under half of the provisional ballots.


So up to 171k votes left to count, including somewhere between 32k and 98k mail in votes (which in GA and PA HEAVILY favored Biden 70-80% or more sometimes). 41k provisional ballots which traditionally favor Democrats but only about half were counted in the 2016 election. Mail in votes arriving as late as November 12 can be counted. There's a Senate seat up for election too but the candidate is behind by more than Biden in votes.

Also, Republicans in the state were protesting to stop the counting while Trump and Rs are asking for all the votes to be counted before announcing a winner elsewhere lol.
 

sangreal

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
10,890
There are not another 100k ballots that were mailed before tuesday and haven't been delivered (on top of the 32k late ballots that were delivered earlier this week). This isn't a realistic possibility.

More likely most of these people simply never returned their ballot

If you give Biden 100% of the ballots they actually have, he would still fall short.

If we say another 50k somehow come in, you would have 123000 outstanding ballots. Biden would need to win 80% to beat Trump's current lead of 75371

Biden won 69.5% of the mail-in vote in NC (excluding 3rd parties). Even in the crazy event that every single ballot was returned and all the provisional ballots are counted (neither will happen), Biden would still have to outperform this number
 
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steejee

Member
Oct 28, 2017
8,605
Not holding my breath but that would be an amazing bonus F U at the end.

Too bad we didn't get any Congressional races that the Ds came back in overtime for
 

Disclaimer

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,463
It was very possible when the believed total of remaining votes was 200-300k.

Now? Eh. It's irrelevant whether Biden wins, and Cunningham is down by like 20k more votes than Biden is. The amount necessary to plausibly surmount the 90-something thousand gap between Cunningham and Tillis just doesn't seem to be there.

Such a shame. Thought my state would go blue for sure this year.
 

hurlex

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,143
I mean, I think there is a very small chance, but I wouldn't think about it until more concrete data comes in.
 

bastardly

Member
Nov 8, 2017
10,577
Fuck yes, not only do I want to run up the score on this fucko, but at a certain point he can't dispute all these states.
 

jph139

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,367
North Carolina and Alaska are JUST possible enough that I can't help hoping for an upset. But also so implausible that I know I'll be disappointed in the end.
 

qaopjlll

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,788
It's mathematically still possible but extremely unlikely, and it also doesn't really matter if Biden wins the state or not. The only thing that would really matter is if Cunningham still had a shot to come back and win the Senate race, but the odds of that are basically null and void at this point.
 

foxuzamaki

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,550
North Carolina and Alaska are JUST possible enough that I can't help hoping for an upset. But also so implausible that I know I'll be disappointed in the end.
Alaska seems like the kind of state that would turning left blue without people realizing it, infact it probably was(and unlikely but still possibly is) until Republicans said they threw some money at it to fix the problem
 

Spine Crawler

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
10,228
Also alaska which only had 50% of the votes counted. The rest is mail in ballots. The senate candidate seemed confident.
 

Blah

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,602
Is NC drip releasing the votes? I don't know what to do with all this free time when AZ gets called soon.
 

Chrome Hyena

Member
Oct 30, 2017
8,768
lol it'll be hilarious if, once its all said and done Dems actually did win NC and get an AK senate seat. would completely change the framing of the race.
 

ShyMel

Moderator
Oct 31, 2017
3,483
It would be amazing if Biden does end up winning NC but even if he does not, I am glad we at least kept Cooper.
 
Aug 12, 2019
5,159
Nah, the margins in NC are too large now for a late game come back with processing mail in ballots I think. Biden would have to do unbelievably well and Cunningham would have to do even more unbelievably well (once again, I think Cunningham really fucked himself with the sex scandal after campaigning on basically being the most honest and responsible boy scout ever) and I just don't think the raw vote total is there waiting to come in to begin with.
 

whiskeystrike

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
628
The obvious asymmetry between Trump and Democrat candidates shows when you look at Roy Cooper being re-elected but mathematically some of the ballots cast for Cooper/Biden either went Tillis or abstained from voting in Cunningham. The sexting/affair scandal hurt Cunningham and possibly cost the Dems a senate seat but the state has no problem voting for Trump again.
 

Zache

Unshakable Resolve
The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
2,777
I would honestly be less surprised at AK be a secret flip than everything going 100% our way in NC. Neither is happening.
 

SRG01

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,014
Also alaska which only had 50% of the votes counted. The rest is mail in ballots. The senate candidate seemed confident.

Yes, I would be confident too if half the potential ballots weren't even counted. He's only down 2:1 against the incumbent and, if national averages for mail-in and absentee are an indicator, he might be able to make up that margin with the rest of the votes.

I would honestly be less surprised at AK be a secret flip than everything going 100% our way in NC. Neither is happening.

I would say that AK going blue for both EC and Senate races is about 50/50.
 
Oct 27, 2020
192
Realistically I think NC is a goner. AK I have no idea but if I had to guess I'd say that will go R as well.

The trend lines look good for us though in the sun belt. We turned AZ and GA into purple states, and NC will definitely get there by the next cycle. That alone gives us a decided advantage in the EC, provided we can continue to hold the line with our Blue Wall.

Several states appear to be trending away from us though: OH, FL, IA. I honestly think it's not worth investing into FL anymore. This state has screwed us the last several election cycles and it's incredibly expensive to compete in.
 

AniHawk

No Fear, Only Math
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,140
nc should be called for trump for the same reason georgia should be called for biden. it's just not statistically possible that there are enough votes to change the lead.
 

Mandos

Member
Nov 27, 2017
30,884
I would honestly be less surprised at AK be a secret flip than everything going 100% our way in NC. Neither is happening.
Yes, I would be confident too if half the potential ballots weren't even counted. He's only down 2:1 against the incumbent and, if national averages for mail-in and absentee are an indicator, he might be able to make up that margin with the rest of the votes.



I would say that AK going blue for both EC and Senate races is about 50/50.
Yeah Alaska feels like a place the senate guy could have a chance if he actually did the ground work
 

THEVOID

Prophet of Regret
Member
Oct 27, 2017
22,841
How many votes are left in GA? I thought that would be called by now?
 

BrickArts295

GOTY Tracking Thread Master
Member
Oct 26, 2017
13,740
tumblr_or9jo12yGz1wons1go1_250.gifv
 

Blader

Member
Oct 27, 2017
26,605
We probably have a better shot of Gross winning the Senate in Alaska than Biden/Cal winning in NC. I don't think either outcome is likely. Hope to be wrong though!
 
OP
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sapien85

Banned
Nov 8, 2017
5,427
Is NC drip releasing the votes? I don't know what to do with all this free time when AZ gets called soon.

alex.github.io

ANN Election Data

Battleground state changes, updated every five minutes using NYT data.

Lol that says they have been doing hundreds of votes at a time every once in a while. The article says that most of the counties will count Thursday or Friday.
 

Mathieran

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,857
I really wish cal Cunningham had kept his dick in pants. I wouldn't doubt it if that has cost him his election

I also don't understand how roy cooper won so easily but we elected a Republican lt. governor. Weird ass state.