Here are each of the win-loss scenarios for tomorrow night...
(5) Good As Gould needs at least 33.06 combined fantasy points out of Saquon Barkley and the Eagles D/ST unit to make the money.
(6) Bail Kings Era needs at least 12.66 fantasy points out of Zach Ertz to make the money.
(7) Tecmo Allstars needs Dallas Goedert to outscore Alshon Jeffery by at least 1.83 points to make the money.
(8) Knibb High Football needs at least 12.17 fantasy points out of Golden Tate to make the money.
Here's my expanded take on each of these scenarios...
Good As Gould has the most uphill battle to make the money. Barkley hasn't looked the same since his high ankle sprain, has only topped his projection for this week on 3 occasions this season... and only one time since his last 100-yard rushing game back in Week 2. And that was against the Lions... whom everyone is able to run against. Whereas the Eagles run D/ST is actually stout.
Compound that with the fact that it's hard to imagine the Eagles D/ST excelling on an evening where Barkley exceeds expectations (barring some Pick 6s from Eli) and it would seem highly unlikely that rinker can recover despite the not insurmountable 8.87 projection deficit.
WINNER PICK: Jimmy Guappolo
The real story coming out of this matchup may well be how decimated TheSkullPrince's receiver ranks are now that Mike Evans is pretty much toast for the remainder of the season, the absence of receiver depth on his bench (after dropping Diontae Johnson prior to his explosion yesterday) and the $0 in FAAB with which to salvage his lineup. He has Cooper Kupp (terrible matchups the rest of the way), Randall Cobb (pedestrian numbers the past two weeks)... and no one else.
Tecmo Allstars has a fighting chance at toppling Evil Corp thanks in large part to that flukey Monday night game last week that dealt AllThingsPurple this matchup. Had they won last week, they'd have drawn Jimmy Guappolo and would already be mathematically eliminated. Goedert outscoring Jeffery by less than 2 points is a far less herculean effort than had he needed 28 points tonight.
That said, the weak Giants secondary conditions opposing quarterbacks to relentlessly pick on their quarterbacks (as opposed to targeting the center of the field via the short game to slot receivers, tight ends and running back dump offs) and one would surmise that'll be the gameplan for Wentz and company tonight as well (even with Agholor's availability looking dicey). Any instance this season where Goedert has outscored Jeffery has been when Jeffery has been up against an unforgiving secondary with elite cornerbacks. That's not the case with New York.
My money is on Hazelhurst overcoming the odds of surviving despite the down week from Lamar Jackson and Alvin Kamara and BOTH of his Tight Ends getting laid out mid-game with injuries. Frankly, I only think he loses tonight if Alshon goes down to injury as well... and that would just be too cruel. He is my current pick to take down the No Quitters championship in his 3rd season.
WINNER PICK: Evil Corp
Knibb High Football is an interesting case because we honestly don't know much about what the Giants will look like tonight offensively. Eli Manning is back in the saddle after the longest bench sabbatical of his career. He's never thrown passes to Golden Tate before... so they lack the chemistry that Manning has established with Sterling Shepard and Saquon Barkley. He also has new toys to play with in Kaden Smith and Darius Slayton. The playbook will remain the same but how much will Eli's head be in the game after such a long sabbatical and with so many moving pieces. It's anybody's guess at this point. The Eagles secondary is easily beatable... certainly more beatable than the Cowboys and Bills games that sent Eli to the bench earlier this year.
If Daniel Jones was still throwing passes and Tate wasn't concussed last week, I'd say this upset was already in the bag. The only time Tate hasn't delivered the numbers to topple the two-time champ against a weak secondary with a full snap share was in Week 7 against the Cardinals... and that was a game where Jones struggled and Shepard was out of the lineup. It's reasonable to assume the Giants will be down in this game and will be playing from behind so he'll keep airing it out. But how many of those balls will be headed Tate's way and what accuracy will they have? It's hard to say.
With playoff reseeding in full effect, a swing in the outcome of this matchup will have more impact than any other. A loss by Minx (who has already banked $200 incidentally thanks to netting the #1 seed and the most points scored) would open things up for the rest of the field in addition to taking his $56 FAAB stash out of the equation. That said, does anyone want to face grang's Knibb High team with quite possibly the most dangerous player in fantasy right now in Derrick Henry? Because that's what Evil Corp has to look forward to should the upset happen.
WINNER PICK: Too Close to Call
The two teams with the lowest projection point total heading into Money Week are the ones that will finish with the highest point total on the week - which should tell you how much faith you should put into projections at this point.
Barring something unforeseen, the loser of this matchup will be only the 2nd team in league history to fail to make the money despite scoring the 2nd most points of any team on the week (thus meaning they would have made the money vs. any other opponent).
Should the losing team finish with more than 114.89 points, they'll also have the record of having the most points of any team in any Money Week in league history to LOSE... and go home with nothing. The fantasy gods are a cruel mistress... but such is the nature of head-to-head matchups in the fantasy playoffs.
This is Match #7 between Crazymoogle's Bail Kings Era and my Long Island Broskis. We have an even 3-3 split in the head-to-head series and the Bail Kings are hoping to avenge a playoff loss to the Broskis in the bronze medal game three years ago.
The Bail Kings are the 2010 league champions and two-time runner-ups (in 2015 & 2018). They have a lifetime No Quitters record of 76-43 (.639) and have qualified for the playoffs every single year they've been in the league. Conversely, my Long Island Broskis are a lifetime 6-0 in Money Week playoff matchups and boast a lifetime No Quitters record of 86-49 (.637). They are three-time runner-ups (in 2012, 2014 & 2017) in addition to finishing 3rd twice and 4th back in 2011. They have the highest win percentage of any team in league history to never win the championship. The narrowest of those Week 14 victories was by a mere 0.18 points back in 2012 over Frankman which remains, up until tonight at least, the closest fantasy playoff margin in league history. We've had narrower outcomes during the regular season but never in the playoffs with all the marbles on the line.
All eyes tonight will be on Zach Ertz... and with a projection difference of 0.26 points as of right now you can pretty much flip a coin to get the result of tonight's matchup. Ertz was on a recent tear with Alshon Jeffery out of the lineup when Wentz was forced to rely on him to move the chains. Of course, Jeffery is back now. He was also leaned on heavily in Week 9 against the Bears, whom you attack the same way you go after the Cardinals by throwing to your Tight End and avoiding their cornerbacks. The Giants don't have cornerbacks to fear so that won't be the case here.
Ertz will likely need a touchdown to clear the 12.66-point deficit that remains outstanding to give Bail Kings the win. The closest corollary to that outcome would be the blowout victory against the Jets back in Week 5. A blowout win tonight for the Eagles would go a long way towards giving Bail Kings the victory and with the Eagles favored by 9 1/2 points at present, I wouldn't bet against it. Beyond that, Ertz has a TD and at least 6 receptions in each of his past 4 games against the Giants. He does that tonight and well...
WINNER PICK: