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Nintendo Switch Will Be Highest Selling Console of 2019, According to Analysts
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As it launched in late 2005 it was behind of many older consoles for that year (PS2 on the top followed by PSP, DS and GBA). For example first year X360 (or PS3) beat PS2 in global sales was in 2008.
Yeah I can certainly see a Zelda game happening on Switch this year, whether a new 2D one or a 3D remake or hell, even a Majora's Mask style sequel to BotW, I just think we should be cautious about taking the absence of any team as a sign by itself that they should have a Switch game almost ready. Now that EPD is making mobile games too.
This is actually interesting point because at same age, big releases didn't had any effect on PS3 sales, games like God of War Ascension and GT6 failed to move hardware sales. PS3 sales peaked at a much lower number than its predecessor, in a shorter time period. Wonder what's the deal with PS4? People coverting to PS4 pro?
Good question, but I can't find an answer. I'm a huge Nintendo fan and I can't think like a person who buys a platform when the game they want comes out. Are there really people who are only interested in just one Nintendo franchise? How many of these AC fanbase played previous entries and how many of them are new to the series? I mean, from my point of view even with the game you want years away, Switch is still a great purchase. Who would love AC and not games like Odyssey or BotW?
It IS a little complicated, actually.
Just like not everyone who wanted Smash owned a Switch, not everyone who wants Animal Crossing already owns a Switch, especially if that's the big game they're holding out for, seeing as there aren't many games similar to it, save for Stardew Valley. It's a system seller for sure as it brings in an audience that other Nintendo games don't bring in as much and is very different from their other offerings. It's still a relatively new system. Had it been a mature system with plenty of similar games, you'd have had a point. It's why I don't think the PS4 really has any major system sellers left at this point as most of the people who want to play those games will have already owned one whereas that wasn't the case when it was young
I wonder what the highest selling console of 2020 will be.
EDIT: I'm no longer wondering this, please don't @ me. The correct answer is clearly Soulja Game 2.
EDIT: I'm no longer wondering this, please don't @ me. The correct answer is clearly Soulja Game 2.
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Of course that's a given since none of us can predict the future with 100% veracity. I just think the PS5 won't be able to match the right time/right place/right price combo for the Switch's early years.
Probably the Switch. 1st year of a new successful system is not its peak year.
No it isn't. This is the same dumb argument people made before Smash and Pokémon Let's Go came out and they looked like goddamn fools as soon as we got numbers.
I believe it. Great price. Hybrid is very nice. Pro/lite model likely. PS5/XB4 rumor mill in full effect likely causing people to hold off on PS4/XBO purchases.
Should be very easily the Switch. Honestly would be pretty odd if it wasn't, seeing as there's a chance it was the best selling or, at least close to the best selling, system this year and the other two systems will be in their first year, which is rarely, if ever, the strongest
No kidding. The guy could easily slip into a job with Fox News given the amount of duplicity he dispenses.
You heard it here first, folks! Tamagotchi is making a comeback!
Tamagotchi, baybee!!
Depends when they launch in the year. If it's the usual November time then it's going to be Switch.
Oversupplied Switch at $200-250 vs undersupplied PS5/XB4 at $400-500?
Would *have* predicted..
And yes, some did.
That's true as well though.
I don't think that would really matter. Systems never sell at their best in the first year and the Switch could very well be enjoying its peak year or close to it that year. Even if they launched early in the year, I'd imagine the Switch would still sell more
Animal Crossing will be a big system seller because it will bring in lots of female gamers into the ecosystem which is something that Switch hasn't achieved yet. The numbers we've seen thus far is that Switch is predominantly bought by males.
Besides, I don't see much overlap between Zelda, Mario players and Animal Crossing players. Animal Crossing is its own thing with a broad family and female type appeal. I love Zelda/Mario but I dont really care for Animal Crossing at all.
Edit: might I add that the series popularity is mostly in Japan although it does respectable numbers else where too. In Japan it has a broad appeal with youmg and old audiences but I suspect that in the west its more of a kids thing. Nintendo's challenge is to broaden its appeal in the west.
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They may, they may not. Or they like Zelda and Mario, but not enough to spend 300.
Real Example for you, and people who share your viewpoint.
It should hopefully clarify it:
I like Kingdom Hearts.
I got a PS4 a few weeks ago because I was getting it for Kingdom hearts. (and it was $200 bucks :D)
Now that I have a PS4 I got FIFA (and Horizon for that $14 sale)
I really like FIFA and Spider-Man but I would never spend $300-400 on a console to play them.
Kindgom Hearts is what pushed me to get the PS4 after 5 years.
Now that I have one I can go back and buy games that I might like.
Does it make sense now?
(If it's not obvious, AC is KH3, and BOTW, SMO are analogous to FIFA and Spider-man in this example)
If someone were to check my post history, they'd probably think I have a hate boner for Michael Pachter. I really don't and I watch Pachter Factor regularly, but beyond his asinine Switch prediction, he believes Elder Scrolls VI is coming in 2019.
Sorry, please allow me to repeat that: he believes Elder Scrolls VI is coming in 2019.
Sorry, please allow me to repeat that: he believes Elder Scrolls VI is coming in 2019.
If you take a look at Twitter, Reddit, etc. you would see plenty of long-time fans holding off on buying a Switch until Animal Crossing comes out. (Some are hoping for a AC-themed Switch announcement.) Hell, I only brought a Switch for myself when Animal Crossing 2019 was announced. :P
That's the thing with Animal Crossing fans, most buy an Nintendo console just for this one game. They could play other games, sure, but Animal Crossing is THE system seller for them. I've seen people who brought a 3DS solely for New Leaf, don't see why it would be any different with the Switch.
I'm pretty sure most of the people who want to play TLoU2 already own a PS4.
Meanwhile, there isn't much incentive for Animal Crossing fans to spring for a Switch, and many Pokemon fans skipped on Let's Go because it's not a mainline entry. Those games are absolutely going to drive hardware sales.
User banned (permanent): homophobic insults
I take it you're the bottom?
OP
OP
Thanks y'all for speaking out against the folks who were trying to make the thread personal again! ❤️
Which is what you seem to be doing now. Try again, this time without insinuating anything about the other person.
this is some high tier wanking.
like what metric does he use for that 13M?
PS4 seconds calendar year was 17.8M, Switch so far (Jan to Sept) second year sits a 7.99M, meaning October to December needs to sell 9.81
I mean...i just thought about the salessituation of the switch in 2019. So...if the switch should manage to sell 20million in the 2018 fiscal year...lets just say it will come close, not even the 20million...but we all can say it will/did strong in the fiscal year 2018, right!?
So...2019..with way more games already announced (not to mention all the games which will be announced during the year), and a likely price cut of the switch (or a Switch pro and they lower the price of the original switch)....there is no way, that it wont sell less than this year. Really no way...Animal Crossing and the next big Pokemon rpg alone will drive sales like craaazy..and than the price cut etc....no way, it will sell less.
I think it will sell even close to 25million. I dont know..but realistically...i cannot see it happen otherwise.
Am i to optimistic?
So...2019..with way more games already announced (not to mention all the games which will be announced during the year), and a likely price cut of the switch (or a Switch pro and they lower the price of the original switch)....there is no way, that it wont sell less than this year. Really no way...Animal Crossing and the next big Pokemon rpg alone will drive sales like craaazy..and than the price cut etc....no way, it will sell less.
I think it will sell even close to 25million. I dont know..but realistically...i cannot see it happen otherwise.
Am i to optimistic?
i think it's not that much of a wild prediction to say that Switch will lead console sales in 2019. In fact, chances are it will have sold the most units in 2018, too. Switch growth, too, seems very likely to me, what with the already stellar first party lineup we know about before having had even one direct in the year.
His ass, and you know it. Pachter doesn't play ball with such lame things as "realism" and "honesty", it seems. He's just making stuff up and doubles down on them with even more made up stuff. What surprises me most is that reputable outlets like gamesindustry.biz take him seriously, even going so far as to give him a section in their analysts' article. He is unnuanced and usually his stuff is also based on very little logic (just check his TESVI prediction, he simply doesn't care about what is known about BGS and TESVI).
I'm curious where you got this idea. From what I've seen, most people seem to be in agreement that:
1. Switch' 2019 will be bigger than its 2018 in terms of sales;
2. PS4 and XB1 should be down YoY and therefore won't be close to what Switch will perform.
Opinions that disagree with either one of the above two points have been rare from what I've read, and it's especially rare to find anyone who thinks PS4 > Switch will happen next year.
You're not too optimistic. Sure, 25 million is a massive bar, and any system, even the Wii, struggled to reach that. But if Nintendo has even more big games for this year left to be revealed and can ride the strong momentum that Smash has provided into the next fiscal year, then it shouldn't be deemed impossible. Maybe not likely, but having Animal Crossing and a new generation Pokémon could provide even more hardware sales impetus compared to Let's Go and Smash (yeah, I said it). And then a price cut in its third year, if it happens, could really push tons of units additionally.
I believe it. The PS4 is getting old and Xbox is gearing up for next gen. We'll get Pokémon, Animal Crossing, possibly Bayonetta 3/Luigi's Mansion and I think we're due for a Metroid Prime 4 update.
No surprise there.
I expect the Switch to be the best selling console for 2018 ( it will be close, but will edge the PS4 I think ), 2019 and 2020 ( next gen console are not going to 20 million year 1... ).
I expect the Switch to be the best selling console for 2018 ( it will be close, but will edge the PS4 I think ), 2019 and 2020 ( next gen console are not going to 20 million year 1... ).
It would be difficult but not impossible. They were flat YOY for most of 2018 until Q3, where Switch exploded. If they can release big games early next year (Animal Crossing) then I see them doing good numbers throughout the year with the announced lineup and one or two big games added in (Mario Maker, Nintendo Land).Now if they release a revision near holidays with a good showoff game and a price cut on the original Switch model I could see them repeat 2018 holiday sales as well, maybe even surpass it.
Why i am also optimistic is:
Nintendo said, they want to get the switch in many hands in one household..means..there are 4 People in one family..2 kids, one man, one woman (or two men..or two women..or two transsexual - you get what i mean;) )...three of them want to play the switch...nintendo said, they want more switches in one household.
And in the last..i dont know..few month, there are more and more people, reporting, that they did exactly this..they bought a few switches for one household. And when the games and the pricecut is coming..this field will get even bigger.
Sorry for my bad english:(
I think even people who don't follow sales pretty closely can probably agree on this. It's a system on the rise vs a system on the fall.
The more interesting conversation is launch aligned. Will Switch be ahead of PS4 after 34 months on market?
The more interesting conversation is launch aligned. Will Switch be ahead of PS4 after 34 months on market?
Yes. It'll be ahead of PS2 and Wii too.
We don't have the information to judge that yet. What we know about 2018 (calendar year) is the following:
Switch: 2.92 + 1.88 + 3.19 = 7.99M units shipped between January 1st 2018 and September 31st 2018
PS4: 2.5 + 3.2 + 3.9 = 9.6M units shipped between January 1st 2018 and September 31st 2018
PS4 has a lead this calendar year of 1.61M units. Now, the question that remains is: how big will the difference be between Switch and PS4 in the last quarter of the year, from October 1st to December 31st? In my opinion, Switch will sell a ton, and probably will sell enough to make up this 1.61M difference comfortably: my expectation is that Switch will ship 11M units or more, while PS4 hasn't shipped more than 9.7M in a quarter, and I think it will do notably less than that considering all the info from the US we have seen, as well as the sales in Japan.
Yeah, a revision and of what kind is also key here too. I'd also expect a $249 SKU along with the revision model at $299. (If a Pro model, which I strongly believe it is). 25 Million should be achievable, what is really crazy to think about though, that would put it ahead of NES LTD at the 3 year mark. 2020 is going to have more competition during the holidays I'm sure... Mario during the holidays 2020 and a full fledged Zelda for March 2021, would be a good way to maintain momentum while next gen consoles start to ramp up, the key problem becomes 2022, where PS5 and XBnext devices will have multiplatform 3rd parties largely to themselves, this is where you'd need to see Nintendo release another "Pro" model and obsolete the current model to maintain some 3rd party support.
I just think what Nintendo releases in 9 or so months, will actually show it's hand and give us a very good idea of what the rest of the Switch's life looks like, because a smaller cheaper model without a power upgrade, will mean that Nintendo isn't going to continue with this platform and will start over from zero in 2022, rather than build up 30-50 Million users on this "Pro" model, to maintain 3rd party support and remain relevant to developers.
And just because I haven't said it anywhere else, I think Switch sold more units than anyone else for 2018 as well, whether they did 10M or 11M and change, they should have outsold PS4, thanks to a very strong December for Switch and a really weak December for PS4 (less than 1 Million was the estimate, with Switch well over twice that)
We can answer this with any semblance of fairness by the end of March. At that point, we can compare the launch aligned numbers since they are roughly the same (PS4 has two full holidays plus a launch holiday, Switch had two full holidays plus a March launch, and both had approximately the number of days on the market, with PS4 having two weeks or so more). If Switch has shipped more than PS4 by then (37.7M), then Switch will be the faster selling system of the two launch aligned. To reach 37.8M shipped by March 31st 2019, Switch will need to have shipped 20M units for the fiscal year, which coincidentally is also their hardware forecast until the end of March. So, if they hit their forecast they will be selling faster than PS4 launch aligned.