Nintendo Switch Will Be Highest Selling Console of 2019, According to Analysts

[Piston]

i think pokemon gen 8 is more of a wildcard. animal crossing tends to be a slower burn that generates an audience over time versus massive day one buys.

i'd be happy to see others be the super mario odysseys of their respective franchises though.

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I think the Switch has shown to be a platform with a very active base that will buy quality games on release en masse. Just this year Kirby Star Allies had one of the series best debuts in NPD, Mario Tennis Aces topped NPD in June, Octopath Traveler topped NPD in July, Super Mario Party is having one of the series best first few months, and Smash is looking to open at some record-shattering number... pretty much everywhere.

When Animal Crossing comes out, I expect it to open much higher than the series ever has before. You are right that it might have a delayed impact in terms of people buying systems for it though.

 

[AxkilAvenger]

Actually, it won't. I've been developing a console too... MUHAHAHAHAHA!

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I will by 6! Eff you Nintendo

 

[SuperFakerBros]

I don't think so, i think Sony can take the lead by releasing The Last of Us 2.

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With the PS4 being so old and having already peaked, The Last of Us 2 wouldn't exactly help the PS4 push past the Switch in 2019. Not to mention, Nintendo will have their own system sellers on the same level and likely a price drop and revision as well. It'll very easily blow past the PS4 next year unless a disaster happens with the Switch. Doesn't matter too much for the PS4 as it's already Sony's most successful system overall and was (is) a beast at levels not seen for quite some time

 

[Deleted member 2785]

First they say Switch is doing great. Then they say that there are no games. Then they can't sell 20 million consoles in 2019...Now...NOW....they say this is a gangbuster year. I this is the worst take of 2019,and we are only in day two. Love or hate... Don't bet against Nintendo, just accept them. Have a nice day, or not. You can decide.

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Who are "they," exactly?

 

[miksar]

I think everyone is missing the real story here. Michael Pachter nailed it again this year. Just look at his track record for the last year. He deserves these high marks.

Switch sales under 20 million: A+, tracking to 13 million this year
Continued mobile flops from Nintendo: A+, enough said

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I find his continued resilience against Nintendo refreshing. Other analysts may spread propaganda about supposedly real holiday Switch sales numbers and Dragalia Lost performance all they want, this is the real deal.

I'm also relieved to see a fresh insight on how the AAA industry operates:

I think we'll hear about a new BioShock game and a new title from Rockstar, both for 2020.
Elder Scrolls VI is coming in 2019.

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What other analysts fail to understand is that release dates are superficial. Rockstar can say that they are now focusing on one big game at a time. Bethesda can say that Elder Scrolls VI is in pre-production, and won't come out for years. It doesn't matter. Mr. Pachter can see beyond the PR speak, and for that I applaud him.

 

[Andri]

Who are "they," exactly?

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The "Analysts", dont you know that all analysts are just a hivemind collective, and every analyst is responsible for whatever the different subconstructs say.

 

[Deleted member 8593]

mat continues his wig snatching tour, i knew pach was next

 

[ShinobiBk]

I see people continue to underestimate Animal Crossing. Y'all just don't know.
A couple predictions for you.
Animal Crossing 2019 will have the largest opening in series history WW. This I think is a given with how popular the series is and how major first party Switch software has absolutely been on fire.
Animal Crossing 2019 will be the best selling game of this generation in Japan. This one is pretty bold as I think if Pokemon comes correct in 2019, that will give some tough competition.

 

[kjtc1979]

We're on a discussion forum, Phantom Thief is a prolific member of this forum who finds news and articles and also makes well-constructed threads and OPs from opinions and factoids. I don't understand the need to shame someone for posting a lot of threads.

What would the rest of us do without good thread creators like them?

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Regarding Phantom Thief, that user was the only one worth a damn on a board we both used to frequent, and since following him here, he finally gets the engagement and reception for his threads in a community that appreciates them. He's an ERA MVP for me.

 

[Jaded Alyx]

Who are "they," exactly?

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The friends we made along the way

 

[Deleted member 9929]

Out of all the great games on the list the one that I want the most is The Witness.

Edit: Oops wrong thread

 

[Deleted member 9929]

Regarding Phantom Thief, that user was the only one worth a damn on a board we both used to frequent, and since following him here, he finally gets the engagement and reception for his threads in a community that appreciates them. He's an ERA MVP for me.

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100% this. Phantom Thief's posts are always something that tends to enhance the community with thoughtful commentary and a drive to get a conversation started! Era member of 2018 by my vote!

 

[Piston]

Phew, reading that whole article and this thread missed the real story with Michael Pachter sticking to his strengths with continuing to hold wrong takes... Switch tracking to hit only 13 million? How... I can't even be that mad anymore I guess. This shit is blatant.

 

[Haze]

The best console will likely be the best selling. All is right for once, regardless of context.

 

[Deleted member 15360]

While I don't mind phantom thief threads but didn't you just create a similar thread few months back ?

https://www.resetera.com/threads/sw...be-third-strategy-analytics-prediction.84066/

 

[Skittzo]

While I don't mind phantom thief threads but didn't you just create a similar thread few months back ?

https://www.resetera.com/threads/sw...be-third-strategy-analytics-prediction.84066/

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This is a different article based on different analysis from different people.

 

[HK-47]

While I don't mind phantom thief threads but didn't you just create a similar thread few months back ?

https://www.resetera.com/threads/sw...be-third-strategy-analytics-prediction.84066/

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Other than a similar theme, everything else is different. What are you playing at?

 

[Clefargle]

Uh, that is the most obvious thing. PS4 and Xbone are phasing out while Switch is coming on to it's prime year.

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I hope it's a PRIME year for sure

 

[Puroresu_kid]

This is how is should go but 18 months ago nobody would of predicted this. The switch was over priced, handheld gaming was dead and switch was going to bomb.

If switch can hit $199 that's a lot of sales yet to land.

 

[McScroggz]

I think this is almost a given. I am curious how the announcement of a new generation of consoles (especially two) might impact a current gen console in what is normally a peak year? Were the Switch a console that appealed primarily to Nintendo fans I would say it wouldn't impact it a lot, but the Switch has fairly broad appeal and is serving as the only real dedicated handheld right now. So I feel like 2019 will probably be the Switch's highest selling year, assuming the looming PS5 and Xbox Two don't impact the sales.

 

[SuperFakerBros]

I think this is almost a given. I am curious how the announcement of a new generation of consoles (especially two) might impact a current gen console in what is normally a peak year? Were the Switch a console that appealed primarily to Nintendo fans I would say it wouldn't impact it a lot, but the Switch has fairly broad appeal and is serving as the only real dedicated handheld right now. So I feel like 2019 will probably be the Switch's highest selling year, assuming the looming PS5 and Xbox Two don't impact the sales.

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Well the Switch was able to sell without negatively impacting the PS4/XB1 so I don't see why the same couldn't hold true but in reverse with the PS5/Next Xbox. The Switch has it's own appeal and niche that's rather different and separate from the PS or the Xbox, even if its appealing to a lot of the same audience

 

[Lelouch0612]

Yes it will and it is normal. Just like it was normal for the PS4 to outsell it in 2017. There are at different parts of their lifecycle.

 

[Puroresu_kid]

I was on a train last week with my son and he was playing his switch. Two other kids were sitting opposite and they then started playing multi player smash together on my sons switch. The other kids were immediately asking there mum to get them a switch.

That kind of thing is Gold.

 

[srtrestre]

I was on a train last week with my son and he was playing his switch. Two other kids were sitting opposite and they then started playing multi player smash together on my sons switch. The other kids were immediately asking there mum to get them a switch.

That kind of thing is Gold.

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In a way, the Switch sells itself.

 

[Terraforce]

Yes it will and it is normal. Just like it was normal for the PS4 to outsell it in 2017. There are at different parts of their lifecycle.

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This pretty much. I doubt any consoles peak in their last year as the single console for a company, so it only feels natural.

That being said, I definitely do not expect the PS5 to have the same crazy momentum the Switch has been having.

 

[Lelouch0612]

This pretty much. I doubt any consoles peak in their last year as the single console for a company, so it only feels natural.

That being said, I definitely do not expect the PS5 to have the same crazy momentum the Switch has been having.

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Too soon to tell. Impossible to forecast with the info we currently have, this industry is very unpredictable.

 

[treasureyez]

I love how, with the benefit of hindsight, this outcome is essentially seen as a given and met with a collective shrug. Of course it's out-selling the PS4 for a second year in a row.

I don't feel like there was anywhere near that level of confidence before the system launched. While it's obvious that the difference in market maturity makes a huge difference, I don't think that justifies underselling the success of the platform so far, especially relative to Nintendo's previous position.

 

[9-Volt]

I see people continue to underestimate Animal Crossing. Y'all just don't know.
A couple predictions for you.
Animal Crossing 2019 will have the largest opening in series history WW. This I think is a given with how popular the series is and how major first party Switch software has absolutely been on fire.
Animal Crossing 2019 will be the best selling game of this generation in Japan. This one is pretty bold as I think if Pokemon comes correct in 2019, that will give some tough competition.

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No one is denying the power of AC when it comes to sales. It will definitely pass the 20m mark pretty easily. The question here is, can it sell hardware too? Can it skyrocket the Switch numbers? Are there people who are holding off their Switch system purchase until the game comes out? Or have all the potential AC players bought their consoles already?

 

[Mory Dunz]

I don't think it's officially a rumor, but Emily causally mentioned that the 2D Zelda team has been absent for a while.

I myself wouldn't get my hopes up for a 2D Zelda on Switch in 2019 since there was actually a rumor about a mobile Zelda in development and I think that might be what they are working on but who knows.

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I actually think a 2D Zelda has a decent chance of releasing this year. Or at least a 3D remaster, but I'm leaning new 2D game.

We haven't gone 3 years without any mainline Zelda game or remake in a long time.
If no game is 2019, we'd be looking at that situation.


I do agree that Nintendo going into mobile could alter schedules and historical precedent, but I'll stick with 2d zelda switch for the moment. Just for the moment

 

[Mory Dunz]

Best selling consoles by year since 1997:

1997: PS1
1998: PS1
1999: PS1
2000: GB
2001: PS2
2002: PS2
2003: PS2
2004: PS2
2005: PS2
2006: DS
2007: DS
2008: DS
2009: DS
2010: DS
2011: 3DS
2012: 3DS
2013: 3DS
2014: PS4
2015: PS4
2016: PS4
2017: PS4
2018: PS4/Switch (Switch is more likely)

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360 or PS3 were never top selling for a year
This is shocking to me

I would assumed 2010 or even 2009 would be one. Did not expect DS in 2010. Or maybe the Kinect surge year
hm wow

 

[Lelouch0612]

360 or PS3 were never top selling for a year
This is shocking to me

I would assumed 2010 or even 2009 would be one. Did not expect DS in 2010. Or maybe the Kinect surge year
hm wow

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No Wii didn't shock you even more ?

 

[poptire]

360 or PS3 were never top selling for a year
This is shocking to me

I would assumed 2010 or even 2009 would be one. Did not expect DS in 2010. Or maybe the Kinect surge year
hm wow

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Pretty sure the Wii was in second place every year behind DS

 

[Amaterasu]

I was on a train last week with my son and he was playing his switch. Two other kids were sitting opposite and they then started playing multi player smash together on my sons switch. The other kids were immediately asking there mum to get them a switch.

That kind of thing is Gold.

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Three of my coworkers have one simply because I started bringing mine in. We had an inventory day where most of the crew sat in the break room for 5 hours last week so I brought Mario Kart to pass the time. Didnt take long before we had a table full of people racing. Heard several people say they had to get one. Thing sells itself.

 

[TwoDelay]

Did Michael pachter seriously say switch was tracking 13 million lol

 

[Mory Dunz]

No Wii didn't shock you even more ?

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I noticed there was no Wii, but looking at it, I said "eh, you have to get to 150m somehow."
So beating out the wii for 2006-2009 wasn't too crazy to me.

I just assumed in my head based on nothing that 2010 DS had started to trail off. But apparently not.

 

[kjtc1979]

No one is denying the power of AC when it comes to sales. It will definitely pass the 20m mark pretty easily. The question here is, can it sell hardware too? Can it skyrocket the Switch numbers? Are there people who are holding off their Switch system purchase until the game comes out? Or have all the potential AC players bought their consoles already?

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Wasn't that, word for word, the same argument being used to predict that there would be no meaningful hardware sales bump from Smash?

 

[Phil32]

I'm not informed enough to agree/disagree, so my boring response is, "This will be interesting to see!"

 

[ApeEscaper]

My bro just waiting for the new switch model to drop meant to release this year

 

[Mory Dunz]

Pretty sure the Wii was in second place every year behind DS

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oh guess the other 7th gen weren't really close for the YoY comparions then ha.
until the very end

 

[krlitros87]

No one is denying the power of AC when it comes to sales. It will definitely pass the 20m mark pretty easily. The question here is, can it sell hardware too? Can it skyrocket the Switch numbers? Are there people who are holding off their Switch system purchase until the game comes out? Or have all the potential AC players bought their consoles already?

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Please not this again.

 

[kvetcha]

No one is denying the power of AC when it comes to sales. It will definitely pass the 20m mark pretty easily. The question here is, can it sell hardware too? Can it skyrocket the Switch numbers? Are there people who are holding off their Switch system purchase until the game comes out? Or have all the potential AC players bought their consoles already?

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So literally all the same questions people just asked about Smash.

Animal Crossing players are majority female, if that's a hint. And Switch demographics as of October 2017 were 88% male.

 

[Oticon]

I can see that happening. Pokemon, Animal Crossing, and possibly a new Switch model in the same year is going to be bananas.

 

[ShinobiBk]

No one is denying the power of AC when it comes to sales. It will definitely pass the 20m mark pretty easily. The question here is, can it sell hardware too? Can it skyrocket the Switch numbers? Are there people who are holding off their Switch system purchase until the game comes out? Or have all the potential AC players bought their consoles already?

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You can say this for any big game. The answer is no. Not all potential buyers have bought the console yet.
There are a wealth of 3rd person action games on PS4 yet God of War, Spider Man and Red Dead Redemption 2 all managed to push hardware that was well into it's 5th year on the market. Big games push hardware and Animal Crossing is huge with the female demographic like few games are

 

[maximumzero]

Man, remember when folks said that the Wii was an aberration and Nintendo's hardware sales would be on a continuous slide from here on out?

 

[Mory Dunz]

No one is denying the power of AC when it comes to sales. It will definitely pass the 20m mark pretty easily. The question here is, can it sell hardware too? Can it skyrocket the Switch numbers? Are there people who are holding off their Switch system purchase until the game comes out? Or have all the potential AC players bought their consoles already?

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Here's a question to answer your question:

There's no AC on Switch.
So if you love AC and would only buy a console if it has AC, why would you own a Switch right now?


same for any tentpole release. Not too complicated

 

[KillerMan91]

360 or PS3 were never top selling for a year
This is shocking to me

I would assumed 2010 or even 2009 would be one. Did not expect DS in 2010. Or maybe the Kinect surge year
hm wow

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DS shipped almost 30 million units in 2009 and still 18 million in 2010. In 2011 X360 was close but with that huge price cut 3DS ended up selling more (2011 was peak year of 3DS..its launch year).

 

[poptire]

oh guess the other 7th gen weren't really close for the YoY comparions then ha.
until the very end

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Well I take back part of what I said. 360 likely took the #2 spot in 2005, and it did come in second overall behind the Wii in the home console market.

Wii and DS were an unprecedented combo that we'll likely never see again.

 

[Mory Dunz]

DS shipped almost 30 million units in 2009 and still 18 million in 2010. In 2011 X360 was close but with that huge price cut 3DS ended up selling more (2011 was peak year of 3DS..its launch year).

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Thanks.

I do remember that 2011 was 3DS peak year, so I wasn't surprised too much at it being top until ps4.

 

[HK-47]

I don't think so, i think Sony can take the lead by releasing The Last of Us 2.

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Who would win in this fight: The Last of Us 2 or Animal Crossing and Pokémon

 

[Kerotan]

It's really to be expected. The Switch hitting it's prime and the ps4 gen nearing the end. Will Sony be aggressive and do a permanent price cut to $199 early this year? I doubt it. But I hope we get at least a $50 cut.

Now switch will sell the most this year but I can't see it dominating the market. PS4 is going to ship a megaton of software in 2019. Overall it won't be dominated. You can say beaten but domination is something else.