Actually is surprised Nintendo forecast in every possible way, for hardware and software sales and for profit.
You have details with sales and forecasts in first page of this thread.
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Nintendo FY3/2020 Q4 Earnings Release, Switch Hardware 55.77M LTD
- Thread starter ggx2ac
- Start date
Actually is surprised Nintendo forecast in every possible way, for hardware and software sales and for profit.
You have details with sales and forecasts in first page of this thread.
This is the best news to come out of all of this, he's the right mix of authentic, corporate and tech-savvy. Well fucking deserved, indeed.
With current sales, it seems that Switch could reach 110m, but PS4 will probably be over 120m and PS4 had very strong its 5. and 6. year on market and we yet need to see how Switch will sell in those years, so Its possible that will reach LT PS4 sales but for now this still less likely than more likely.
It's crazy seeing the attach rate for Nintendo's evergreens actually go up, years after their release.
I meant next year's forecast in regard to staying ahead of the PS4 launch-aligned.
Yes, but thats Switchs 4. year on market, PS4 had very strong sales in its 5. and 6. year on market, so we yet need to see can Switch also have such-a strong sales in those years.
Interestingly, none of the individual numbers seems too crazy in isolation. Maybe that's just a result of expectation-setting given the Switch's software sales so far, but if you told me any of these numbers yesterday I wouldn't really have found it jaw dropping. But all of them together seems pretty wild. Basically feels like all of the wish-casted success, franchise by franchise, was fully realized (...with the exceptions of the most enthusiastic hopes that FE3H was hitting 5 mil or Astral Chain would have big legs)
Every time these numbers come out, my immediate reaction is to be curious to learn more about 3rd party numbers. My prior is that there are firms who've figured out how to cater to the Switch audience. At the same time, third party strategies for the Switch seem to be both so divergent and so locked-in that Bethesda, SE, Ubi, and even Capcom are not going to change their minds with their current approach because they're probably meeting whatever barometer of success they've established for the platform.
Nonetheless, it would be nice to have solid numbers on the 3rd party open world RPGs, indie megahits, multi-player focused games, and exclusives attempting to cater to the audience.
MK8DX, Smash, BOTW, Odyssey, Animal Crossing, Mario Party, and Ringfit (among others) all likely to have absurd continued success especially as Animal Crossing and stay-at-home expands the audience. Over the last several weeks I've heard people reach out and ask what they should they be getting for the Switch and like clockwork there are a handful of games that form the core of "here's what you get with your new Switch"
...Also, would be nice to know how Tropical Freeze is holding up.
Every time these numbers come out, my immediate reaction is to be curious to learn more about 3rd party numbers. My prior is that there are firms who've figured out how to cater to the Switch audience. At the same time, third party strategies for the Switch seem to be both so divergent and so locked-in that Bethesda, SE, Ubi, and even Capcom are not going to change their minds with their current approach because they're probably meeting whatever barometer of success they've established for the platform.
Nonetheless, it would be nice to have solid numbers on the 3rd party open world RPGs, indie megahits, multi-player focused games, and exclusives attempting to cater to the audience.
MK8DX, Smash, BOTW, Odyssey, Animal Crossing, Mario Party, and Ringfit (among others) all likely to have absurd continued success especially as Animal Crossing and stay-at-home expands the audience. Over the last several weeks I've heard people reach out and ask what they should they be getting for the Switch and like clockwork there are a handful of games that form the core of "here's what you get with your new Switch"
...Also, would be nice to know how Tropical Freeze is holding up.
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User Banned (1 Week): Offsite drama, history of similar infractions
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PS4 / NSW
FY1 7.50mil / 2.74mil
FY2 14.80mil / 15.05mil
FY3 17.70mil / 16.95mil
FY4 20.00mil / 21.03mil
Tot 60.00mil / 55.77mil
FY5 19.00mil / *19.00 forecast
note that 4.23mil difference has ps4 have 1 extra quarter and it was a holiday quarter.
Quarter aligned (13Q) it's 57.10mil be 55.77mil (1.33mil difference)
FY1 7.50mil / 2.74mil
FY2 14.80mil / 15.05mil
FY3 17.70mil / 16.95mil
FY4 20.00mil / 21.03mil
Tot 60.00mil / 55.77mil
FY5 19.00mil / *19.00 forecast
note that 4.23mil difference has ps4 have 1 extra quarter and it was a holiday quarter.
Quarter aligned (13Q) it's 57.10mil be 55.77mil (1.33mil difference)
Geez, that aged like milk made in 2017 :P
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As hilarious as this post is in hindsight, let's not forget that this hyperbolic negativity regarding Switch was rampant across a large portion of GAF (and therefore likely a large segment of current ERA users). So many people have been proven wrong.
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The majority of opinions of g*f regarding the Switch are good for a massive wall of shame.
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FTFY. I will never forget the negativity pre-launch and that's why I will always remind people about the Switch's success. :)
I'm so glad that the Switch had its own "No wireless. Less space than a Nomad. Lame" moment, and it couldn't have come from a better poster.
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FE hitting 5M was a very enthusiastic hope, nevertless TH selling more than Fates without
1) its inflated numbers thanks to three routes
2) an excessive pandering to the otaku fanbase
It is a very big success for the game and the series, now firmly a reliable seller for Nintendo (with a huge margin for growing).
All things considered, it seems Super Mario Maker 2 didn't do too hot? Am I wrong here (genuine question)?
When Nintendo revealed the Switch pricing and the paid online my opinion on the product changed so drastically compared to the initial reveal. Should have stuck with my initial reaction since that was the one that ended up being correct, the concept was incredibly easy to sell and attractive. Forum dwellers get too caught up in ahit that the average person does not care about.
It did well but it didn't blow up the way some were expecting I guess
5M is solid though, but maybe we won't see another Mario maker for a while.
Well, it sold almost as much as Final Fantasy VII Remake.
Amazing numbers. Grats Nintendo.
I believe it's outsold it at this point. I think the Xbox One was estimated between 45-50 million sold a few months back. Microsoft doesn't provide numbers though.
I believe it's outsold it at this point. I think the Xbox One was estimated between 45-50 million sold a few months back. Microsoft doesn't provide numbers though.
Lmao, love how these "experienced" videogamers make their high and mighty predictions, only to fall flat on their asses.
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There was a really elegant logic to the 2016/2017 Switch is doomed hypothesis. Takes like this were really popular:
- Nintendo can't compete with PS4/Xbox One on power
- Nintendo can't compete with Google/Apple on mass appeal
- Any new system is automatically kneecapped by launching mid gen since the audience is already committed
- There is a sizable middle space audience more committed to gaming than angry bird fans but who isn't ride or die for tech specs (consisting in part of multiple generations having good memories associated with Nintendo)
- Sufficiently high-quality software is able to capture a large audience regardless of timing/power
- The value proposition of integrating on the go and home gaming was substantial
- Launching late in the life of existing consoles gave the Switch a moment in the spotlight where it was more active than its competitors
- The failure of the Wii U / early death of the Wii left a lot of people excited to see something new and popular from Nintendo
Yeah, this has been the case since the 1980s. Don't think any new games will come from that revelation, or their fiscal report, not sure which you were asking about.
I know that people around here focus on hardware sales numbers, and it obviously is exciting (to me as well).
But I think the main story here is that the Switch is already an undeniably huge success for Nintendo. Their IPs have never been stronger, and they are by far Nintendo's most important assets.
Sure the Wii might have seen higher hardware sales numbers, but they never translated into equal success for Nintendo's IPs (outside boxed software/a limited selection of IPs) and I guess it could be argued that in the long term the Wii actually hurt Nintendo's long term success by setting them on the "casual path" and alienating other audiences.
Having said that I am somewhat doubtful the Switch will ever surpass the PS4, simply because Nintendo console have never had a very long lifespan and always tended to drop of quite sharply. I think this is also due to the fact that it is hard for Nintendo alone to support a console with enough system-selling software for more than 5 years. But things might be different now with the unified development teams.
Exciting times and a well-deserved success for Nintendo! I guess never have all three players been more healthy at the same time <3
But I think the main story here is that the Switch is already an undeniably huge success for Nintendo. Their IPs have never been stronger, and they are by far Nintendo's most important assets.
Sure the Wii might have seen higher hardware sales numbers, but they never translated into equal success for Nintendo's IPs (outside boxed software/a limited selection of IPs) and I guess it could be argued that in the long term the Wii actually hurt Nintendo's long term success by setting them on the "casual path" and alienating other audiences.
Having said that I am somewhat doubtful the Switch will ever surpass the PS4, simply because Nintendo console have never had a very long lifespan and always tended to drop of quite sharply. I think this is also due to the fact that it is hard for Nintendo alone to support a console with enough system-selling software for more than 5 years. But things might be different now with the unified development teams.
Exciting times and a well-deserved success for Nintendo! I guess never have all three players been more healthy at the same time <3
There's a graph somewhere in this thread that shows Switch is already breaking that pattern compared to both Wii and 3DS.
FY1 for Switch is just one month, I wouldn't count like FY1 at all, just like launch month.
I am following the numbers and I don't doubt that the Switch will end up one of Nintendo's most successful consoles (also in terms of HW sales), I am just a bit sceptical when it comes to sustaining it. But on the other hand it needs to be said that there hasn't even been a single price drop so far, which is pretty crazy.
Has it ever been so long till a console's first price drop? Would be super interesting to compare the evolution of prices in different generations, but not sure where to access that data from.
5,5 millions is a great result but it didn't exploded like other IP on the system. Its legs also don't seem as strong as other evergreens.
It is still a major success but its reach to a wider audience seems to have a clear limit.
When all is set and done it should be around 6/7 millions so it is a big success.
Thanks for doing the summary! There is a minor issue with highlighted numbers. :)
Well yeah, same amount of months on market is better comparison.
So based on the million seller list Nintendo sold about ~85M units of first party software this FY (in reality probably more due to titles not on the million seller list, but probably not terribly much more).
Which would be about 50% of the total software sales, which is nowhere near the reported 82.8% "proportion of first party software sales". So that confirms my suspicion that that number, which people often cite as proof that third parties don't sell on Switch, is talking purely about revenue and not units.
Which is obviously gonna be that high when most Nintendo titles are sold at full price, and also because Nintendo receives only 30% of the revenue of third party titles, whereas they receive 100% of the revenue of their titles.
Which would be about 50% of the total software sales, which is nowhere near the reported 82.8% "proportion of first party software sales". So that confirms my suspicion that that number, which people often cite as proof that third parties don't sell on Switch, is talking purely about revenue and not units.
Which is obviously gonna be that high when most Nintendo titles are sold at full price, and also because Nintendo receives only 30% of the revenue of third party titles, whereas they receive 100% of the revenue of their titles.
I don't know how these predictions came to be, Wii U messaging was confusing from the get-go, Switch wasn't.
Not trusting it to be a runaway hit like it is now, that's was reasonable doubt after the previous console, but a total indifference from the market to the lone handheld left wasn't a reasonable conclusion, I think. I guess most of us totally forgot to take the 3DS into the equation...?
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True, the comparison now is better favored for it since it just got off a holiday. Gap is shrinking. There is a possibility of NSW being higher launched aligned this time next year
Most initial Switch predictions before launch were laughable, even outside of that forum. Hell, I was among many predicting that the console would probably settle at around 50-60m LTD. WiiU really did a number on people's expectations for Nintendo.
Glad that the console exceeded my expectations from a product and sales standpoint.
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Yeah, it's a shame. Game is great but the fact they are done with content updates for it is disappointing given it's been less than a year. The most recent content update has made the game an incredibly easy recommend.
It will still end in the 7-8m range when all is said and done. Roughly double the WiiU game.
Hmm, the math works out: 0.5/(0.5 + 0.3*0.5) * 100% ~= 77%, which is very close to the indicated number of 82.8% (I'm using 0.5 the proportion of first party software sales, which is obviously not the exact value). Very interesting. That could mean that third parties are contributing 70M-80M to the yearly software sales.
If we assume that that is true, then we can work out third party lifetime sales on the platform. Let's give it a try:
FY2019 {01-04-2019 through 31-03-2020}: 69.03M (proportion 82.8%, total 168.72M)
FY2018 {01-04-2018 through 31-03-2019}: 46.46M (proportion 83.8%, total 118.55M)
FY2017 {01-04-2017 through 31-03-2018}: 24.20M (proportion 85.3%, total 63.51M)
I have chosen not to include FY2016 because Switch wasn't around for most of it, so the numbers doesn't tell us a great deal. What this tells us is that out of the 350.78M units shipped between April 1st 2017 and March 31st 2020, 139.69M are third party software. That doesn't sound too bad considering basically all AAA games skip the system.
NOTE: All of this is assuming the proportion number is based on revenue. If it's not, then you can discard this. There is some messing up going on with the 3DS and WiiU's residual software sales, but that shouldn't have a big impact.
Mathematics used to arrive there:
Let x and y be the amount of first party and third party software, respectively. N is the total software shipped, as reported in the earnings releases. Let P be the reported proportion of first game sales (in revenue terms for Nintendo). Then, the following system of equations must hold:
{ x/(x+0.3*y) = P,
{ x + y = N
Now, to compute x (and y as a consequence):
y = (x-x*P) / (0.3*P)
N - x = (x-x*p) / (0.3*P)
N = (x - 0.7*x*P) / (0.3*P)
x(1 - 0.7*P) = 0.3*N*P
x = 0.3*N*P / (1 - 0.7*P)
Using this formula, you can directly compute x, since N and P are known for each fiscal year. y is calculated simply by using y = N - x.
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they must be greenlighting a lot of games and starting R&D on the Succ now that Ampere is in production
Where does this number come from? The 82.8%? Can you link it to me? If 9 third party games topped 1m units in the fiscal year it makes pretty much 0 sense that packaged goods of third party games was under 30m even ignoring digital only indies.
Is that surprising? Don't let the Smash rep count fool you, FE is hardly one of Nintendo's big series (at least on console, it is still Nintendo's biggest mobile game, although that says more about the weakness of the rest at this point).
Yeah third party titles seem to be doing quite well on Switch. I'd be curious to see the total units but that may take a lot of estimation.
It's in the OP but it's from page 20 of the slides:
It's often been around the 75-85% range for Switch and people keep citing that as unit numbers but it's very clearly referring to revenue now.