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Empyrean Cocytus

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
18,704
Upstate NY
I think 10M is an unrealistic expectation for something that's been out what, 4 months?

ps4 pro and X1X have 20% sell rate compared to their base consoles, and while Lite is cheaper than switch it does not Switch so some buyers will never be able to get past that. Saying that, 26% (japan) to 40% (America) is pretty damn good imo.

Yes, but there's a lot of people that see Nintendo as a handheld company. Even when the Wii U faltered the 3DS was selling quite well. So having a device you could declare as the new Nintendo handheld is a big selling point.

Apparently most of the sales have been going to buying a second Switch for their SO/kids/whatever (which is the case in my case, wife wanted a second device for Pokemon) so it's good that it isn't taking a bite out of the sales of the OG Switch.
 

Saicho

Member
Oct 27, 2017
669
Pokemon Sw/Sh is already 16 mil WW before 2020? WOW

Astral Chain over 1 mil with 160K in Japan? Astral Chain 2 should be greenlite any time now!
 
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Forkball

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,941
Animal Crossing is not even out yet.

There's a storm coming.
xRRvEax.png
 
Jun 10, 2018
8,844
Yes, but there's a lot of people that see Nintendo as a handheld company. Even when the Wii U faltered the 3DS was selling quite well. So having a device you could declare as the new Nintendo handheld is a big selling point.

Apparently most of the sales have been going to buying a second Switch for their SO/kids/whatever (which is the case in my case, wife wanted a second device for Pokemon) so it's good that it isn't taking a bite out of the sales of the OG Switch.
The new Nintendo handheld is the base Switch and has been since launch. Switch Lite is simply the 2DS in this matter - and I didn't see a fuss about that not outselling the base or XL 3DS models.

They all function the same as handhelds. Differentiating one from the other as the defacto handheld is merely a matter of semantics only enthusiasts care about.
 

ShinobiBk

One Winged Slayer
Member
Dec 28, 2017
10,121
- FIFA 20
- Crash Team Racing
- Mario & Sonic
- Just Dance
- The Witcher 3

Would be my guesses.

Edit : replace one of the bottom 4 by Minecraft.
I actually think Just Dance is the safest bet of that bunch. We saw what the best selling Switch 3rd Party NPD charts looked like. Just Dance is like COD on Switch
 

Antony

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,684
PlayStation Home
This'll be the last quarter where the 4 best games on the platform were also the 4 highest selling games on the platform. Sadly a quite unique feat.
 

Deleted member 11008

User requested account closure
Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
6,627
I think many have already said this, but I find quite impressive Switch to sell this without any kind of price drop.
 

Sebastopa

Member
Apr 27, 2018
1,782
Switch has officially outsold The SNES bois!
Next is NES, keep climbing Up the ladder!

Wii > NES > NSW > SNES > N64 > GCN > Wii U
 

Roo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,049
So happy for NLG because Luigi's Mansion 3 was fantastic, I'm glad to see it selling so well. 20 million hardware is an easy lock this year thanks to Animal Crossing and whatever else they bring, I'll be shocked if it doesn't make it.

I really am curious to see what ARMS is at, I see it sold out rather frequently at Target and Best Buy so I'm hoping it's close to 2 million at least. No new Mario Kart for the foreseeable future, also looking like it might become the best-selling Mario Kart which is crazy to think about. Wouldn't have thought Mario Kart Wii would be dethroned so quickly.
Last we heard about ARMS was back in December 2018 and it was already over 2.20 million copies before it dropped the Top 10
I assume it should be closer to 3 million by now but sadly I don't think we will ever know.
 

effingvic

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,200
Happy about Astral Chain's performance. I hope FE:3H reaches 3M eventually but I'm sure Nintendo is happy with its performance.

I wonder how soon we'll get Splatoon 3 considering its one of Nintendos best performing games on the Switch.
 

NSESN

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Oct 25, 2017
25,319
People like to forget that SRPG is a very niche genre and that said genre is pretty much dead outside of XCOM and FE.
3m in the end would be amazing.
Not only that but it tracking above games like Persona 5 that are seen as super successful games in here
 

PillFencer

Banned
Nov 15, 2018
2,431
300K in a quarter for a SRPG is less than stellar?
Also you are underestimating the sales that the final DLC and Byleth in Smash will bring
I'm a little bit disappointed too, Xenoblade 2 did 1.06m in December 2016 then 250k in the next quarter. Three Houses more than doubled XbC2's first quarter but then "only" shipped 290k in its second quarter which is by far the strongest quarter of the year. Expected 400-450k, still a great performance tho.
 

Lukemia SL

Member
Jan 30, 2018
9,384
It makes some kind of twisted sense, since Nintendo is like 96% dependant on Switch, while Xbox is kinda Bill and now Phills pet projekt.
But yeah, it just reads kinda biased when any comparision is followed by a bunch of excuses as to why the comp that isnt favorable does not actually matter at all.

I can see it that way sure, but it just reads like a way to downplay Nintendo's success. Especially after they pulled it back from the unfortunate failure of the Wii U, Nintendo did great.
 

NSESN

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Oct 25, 2017
25,319
I'm a little bit disappointed too, Xenoblade 2 did 1.06m in December 2016 then 250k in the next quarter. Three Houses more than doubled XbC2's first quarter but then "only" shipped 290k in its second quarter which by far the strongest quarter of the year. Expected 400-450k
3H launched at the start of the quarter and xenoblade at the end, not comparable. Also it is very possible they shipped a lot in the first quarter so they didnt need to ship much in this one.
 

Personablue

Member
Feb 10, 2019
1,227
300K in a quarter for a SRPG is less than stellar?
Also you are underestimating the sales that the final DLC and Byleth in Smash will bring
People like to forget that SRPG is a very niche genre and that said genre is pretty much dead (or struggling hard) outside of XCOM and FE.
3m in the end would be amazing.
Everything is relative. While I was very surprised and happy to see Xenoblade 2 go from 1M to 1.76M during the non holiday period , fire emblem debuted with 2m+ , so expectations are bound to increase. It managing only 300k in the biggest quarter is not what I expected
 

NSESN

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Oct 25, 2017
25,319
Everything is relative. While I was very surprised and happy to see Xenoblade 2 go from 1M to 1.76M during the non holiday period , fire emblem debuted with 2m+ , so expectations are bound to increase. It managing only 300k in the biggest quarter is not what I expected
You have to consider, people that buy switch at holidays, is Fire Emblem the type of game they would buy as their first game? I doubt, it seems much more likely it is a game they would pick up as second or 3rd games. The competition for attention against Ring Fit, Pokemon and Luigi means it would benefit much from the holidays
 

DarkSora

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Oct 28, 2017
6,186
OK Nintendo, you seem to have enough money now.

Can we have Star Fox on Switch now? Or maybe a little F Zero?
 

Baby Bird

Member
Nov 5, 2017
1,453
Im a huge Nintendo fan, but if you told e 4 years ago that a their main console would be selling this well, Id laugh at your face.

They are giving meaning to the phrase: "never count Nintendo out"
 

V0ltg

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,610
Everything is relative. While I was very surprised and happy to see Xenoblade 2 go from 1M to 1.76M during the non holiday period , fire emblem debuted with 2m+ , so expectations are bound to increase. It managing only 300k in the biggest quarter is not what I expected
I think XC2 benefited from a much calmer post-launch time. There was barely anything of note in the first half of 2018 (unless I'm forgetting something).
Meanwhile FE was sandwiched between several anticipated releases. Could be wrong, though.

Dont forget Mario+Rabbids

True. I also forgot about Brigandine, which will easily sell 1m this year, r-right?
 

Pokémon

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,681
I was one of the few people that believed the Switch would be a success and I even said "maybe" when Kimishima said the Switch could reach 100m even before it officially released. But I have to admit that I never thought it would sell that well in not even 3 years.
 

Jimmy Joe

Member
Aug 8, 2019
2,200
Now hold up a second. I don't think anybody has talked about this yet.

BOTW's cumulative sales for the first three quarters of FY2020 are at 3.57 million

For reference, the same period during FY2019 came out to a total of 3.20 million

BOTW is selling faster this FY than it did last FY.

What is happening. Could this GD game crest 20 million before the end of FY2021? Do we live in that world? Where a Zelda game just sells 20 million units in like 4 calendar years? And where it's just... accelerating rather than slowing down? Where a Zelda game is a real evergreen? It's on trajectory to sell as much as Vice City or San Andreas!
 

NSESN

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Oct 25, 2017
25,319
Anyway, as seen in japan weekly sales, smash is having an effect on FE sales. That, coupled with the DLC, might make it shipe another 100k or more in this quarter
 

Pokémon

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,681
Now hold up a second. I don't think anybody has talked about this yet.

BOTW's cumulative sales for the first three quarters of FY2020 are at 3.57 million

For reference, the same period during FY2019 came out to a total of 3.20 million

BOTW is selling faster this FY than it did last FY.

What is happening. Could this GD game crest 20 million before the end of FY2021? Do we live in that world? Where a Zelda game just sells 20 million units in like 4 calendar years?

It is really an insane achievement and the game didn't even get any further updates or DLC besides the first DLC Pack. Not to mention that we didn't get a cheaper "greatest hits" or complete edition yet lol. Almost everything was sold at full price.
 

the7samurai

Member
Oct 30, 2017
443
What's the difference between this results meeting tonight verse the numbers we are getting now? Is it just an invester Q&A or will there be new info?
 
Jun 8, 2019
198
Misc thoughts

Happiest to see Astral Chain and Ring Fit. Both were cool, new, interesting ideas and I think hit the level of success needed to keep get follow-ups and potentially become staples. In Ring Fit's case, will be curious to see where its ceiling is. Also given that these are on far ends of the spectrum gameplay wise it's awesome to see how varied the switch audience is (meaning, we can hope to see other interesting experiments).

Grezzo and Next Level just casually dropping 4-5 mil year of release, NBD. Crazy that in contrast to the number of massive evergreens, these almost feel like fillers.

Fire Emblem is great, but to be honest I was hoping for a least a little bit more of a Switch bump for it. Not disappointing by any stretch of the imagination but maybe a case where I set expectations a little high.

The pool of 10 and 20 million is amazing and there are obvious next candidates to join in. Animal Crossing, Poekmon gen 4, and a 2D Mario are obvious, but I still think a Switch Sports Resort could make a big splash. It's just great to see so many good storys from top to bottom.
 

TheSentry42

Member
Nov 2, 2017
1,249
Luigi's got the pull! Great numbers. Time for a full Luigi line of games.
I get that the quality and review for the games aren't the same (LM3 is just a better game), but it's crazy that our boy Luigi can sell 5x what a Marvel game can do, especially considering Marvel as a brand is in such a high spot thanks to the movies and Spider-Man PS4.
 

TheSentry42

Member
Nov 2, 2017
1,249
I think this actually makes it the best selling game in the series by quite a bit. 3 million would be cool though.
I'd love to see the numbers for all the games in the series... does anyone have those?

I think FE:3H can reach 3 mil which is a respectable number for a 1st party property that's a bit niche.
 

jinkx

Member
Sep 11, 2019
310
Nintendo really deserves this time, unlike the Wii U

I am so happy for them. Games like Breath of the Wild really helped me to get through some dark times of my life

And game freak does not deserve that at all, I'm hoping that TemTem makes them improve this boring ass game that is Sword and Shield
 

Jimmy Joe

Member
Aug 8, 2019
2,200
It is really an insane achievement and the game didn't even get any further updates or DLC besides the first DLC Pack. Not to mention that we didn't get a cheaper "greatest hits" or complete edition yet lol. Almost everything was sold at full price.
I just remember watching Skyward Sword's sales back in the day and going "oh...."

And now BOTW is selling more in its third year than in its second! It's performing like a real evergreen, accelerating as the install base grows, and nevermind 3D Mario, it's actually slugging it out with Smash. If Smash slows down in the next few quarters (which it probably won't but you never know) then BOTW could actually start outselling it on a quarterly basis.

It's so wild.
 

Phendrift

Member
Oct 25, 2017
32,297
What's the difference between this results meeting tonight verse the numbers we are getting now? Is it just an invester Q&A or will there be new info?
They'll talk abojt their strategy, show some comparison graphs with the sales, and have a Q&A. May announce a mobile game or update/announce a non-gaming venture like the theme park or Mario movie
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,658
Now hold up a second. I don't think anybody has talked about this yet.

BOTW's cumulative sales for the first three quarters of FY2020 are at 3.57 million

For reference, the same period during FY2019 came out to a total of 3.20 million

BOTW is selling faster this FY than it did last FY.

What is happening. Could this GD game crest 20 million before the end of FY2021? Do we live in that world? Where a Zelda game just sells 20 million units in like 4 calendar years? And where it's just... accelerating rather than slowing down? Where a Zelda game is a real evergreen? It's on trajectory to sell as much as Vice City or San Andreas!

Yeah it'll do 27-30M on Switch alone I think. Does remind me of pre-2013 GTA.

Calendar Year Sales:

17: 6,700
18: 4,980
19: 4,660

FY Sales:

16: 2,760
17: 5,720
18: 4,290
19: 3,570 (pred 1,440 for Q4, so 5,010 once the FY is complete)

With current momentum, potential price-drops, "Greatest Hit/Selects" editions, and buzz/hype around a sequel, I think it can hold an average of just under 1M per quarter for the next 2 calendar years (8M in 20 and 21, maybe split 4.5/3.5). Another 3-4M for the rest of its life gets it to ~27-28M, plus an additional 1.7M from Wii U.

If it gets ported to Switch 2 the total will climb past 30M.
 

Thatguy

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
6,207
Seattle WA
Pokemon is going to be top seller isn't it?

Congrats to Nintendo for a great hardware idea. Seems likely to surpass 3DS+WiiU combined stats which means although they collapsed hardware pillars their overall footprint expanded.
 

IronTed

One Winged Slayer
Member
Jun 6, 2019
1,435
Now hold up a second. I don't think anybody has talked about this yet.

BOTW's cumulative sales for the first three quarters of FY2020 are at 3.57 million

For reference, the same period during FY2019 came out to a total of 3.20 million

BOTW is selling faster this FY than it did last FY.

What is happening. Could this GD game crest 20 million before the end of FY2021? Do we live in that world? Where a Zelda game just sells 20 million units in like 4 calendar years? And where it's just... accelerating rather than slowing down? Where a Zelda game is a real evergreen? It's on trajectory to sell as much as Vice City or San Andreas!

BoTW isn't just a beast, it's a monster. A true evergreen and at this point BoTW 2 might not have the negative effect on it some expect it to have.
 

Maple

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,729
Sword/Shield already over 16 million.

Super Mario Party almost at 10 million.

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe almost at 23 million.

Luigi's Mansion 3 already over 5 million.

These numbers are just insane to me.