Nintendo FY3/2020 Q3 Earnings Release, Switch Hardware 52.48M LTD, Forecast revisions for HW/SW

Deleted member 10737 · Jan 30, 2020

switch currently has six 10 million sellers:

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
Super Mario Odyssey
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild
Pokémon Sword and Shield
Pokémon: Let's Go, Pikachu! and Let's Go, Eevee!

these two games will soon (next quarter) join that club, bringing the number up to 8:

Splatoon 2
Super Mario Party

after that, there are at least 3 or 4 titles that are almost guaranteed to exist and pass 10 million:

Breath of the Wild 2
Animal Crossing New Horizons
Mario Odyssey 2
New Pokemon (gen 9 or gen 4 remakes)

that will bring the number of 10 million sellers up to 11 or 12, which means switch will pass Wii (9) and DS (10) to be the nintendo system with the most 10 million sellers.

Zedark · Jan 30, 2020

BOTW Switch:
2017: 6.70M
2018: 4.98M
2019: 4.66M
Total: 16.34M

Will 2020 be the year BOTW Switch reaches 20M? I do think so.

metalslimer · Jan 30, 2020

Nintendo deserves a lot of credit for pulling off such an amazing comeback.

I think the lone maybe smallish disappointment is Mario Maker 2. The way the game took over social media for a bit I expected it to become a bigger hit but it seems like the market for that type of game is not gonna be other top tier Nintendo franchises

Deleted member 3017 · Jan 30, 2020

Zedark said:
BOTW Switch:
2017: 6.70M
2018: 4.98M
2019: 4.66M
Total: 16.34M

Will 2020 be the year BOTW Switch reaches 20M? I do think so.

Yes, especially if BotW2 doesn't launch this upcoming holiday. Nintendo can easily do a big marketing push for it to excite consumers for its sequel.

Papaya · Jan 30, 2020

The software sales on switch continue to be amazing. BotW sales are incredibly impressive. The series is so old, but has never sold this well. Splatoon is solidifying itself as one of Nintendo's most powerful brands. Was hoping for more from FE but w/e. Astral Chain makes me happy tho.

Also Pokemon...wtf. This is the first Pokemon I havent picked up in years, and it ends up being the highest selling one in recent times lololol.

ShiningBash · Jan 30, 2020

OTBWY said:
Sadly it is what it is. A nicher than niche game.

And that's putting it nicely. I loved that game, but I think a lot of people would prefer the adjectives of "unappealing", "bad", or perhaps "trash."

Ryno23 · Jan 30, 2020

Zedark said:
BOTW Switch:
2017: 6.70M
2018: 4.98M
2019: 4.66M
Total: 16.34M

Will 2020 be the year BOTW Switch reaches 20M? I do think so.

That's amazing. Does anyone have this data handy for Mario Kart Deluxe? Trying to convince a friend Switch won't see a new Mario Kart lol

Lukemia SL · Jan 30, 2020

Proven said:

Show me numbers not people. Dude's saying it didn't pass Xbox One last year not this year.

pappacone · Jan 30, 2020

Zedark said:
Here's a revenue and profit graph by Zhuge, that's probably the best comparison to make:

Switch revenue and profit rival the Wii+DS era, although the latter is still above Switch era.

thanks I was asking for something like this

Odeko · Jan 30, 2020

Astral Chain hitting 1M is Wonderful

Keep the Platinum collaborations coming Nintendo! I'm ready for 101 more.

(Now if only they had some masterpiece lying around for an easy port that was criminally overlooked on its first release)

Ultra · Jan 30, 2020

Hardware sales strong. Software is fucking nuts. Nintendo IP power is truly in a league of its own when it comes to exclusive selling power

dean_rcg · Jan 30, 2020

Zedark said:
Here's a revenue and profit graph by Zhuge, that's probably the best comparison to make:

Switch revenue and profit rival the Wii+DS era, although the latter is still above Switch era.

They must stand a chance of setting new records next year!?

BlueManifest · Jan 30, 2020

Puroresu_kid said:
52 mil HW units after 3 years is fantastic. Great news.

Less than 3 years, March 2020 will be 3 years

Lukemia SL · Jan 30, 2020

Switch owners really come up for their software. Very high numbers, that's impressive.

Brazil · Jan 30, 2020

Obscene sales numbers. Everything the Switch touches turns to gold. Really reminiscent of the Wii/DS days.

Astral Chain above 1mi made my day.

Pokémon · Jan 30, 2020

Lexxism said:
MK8D is a goddamn monster. I still remember people were arguing that it wont do that much on Switch coz it didnt do anything on WiiU lmao

"People who wanted to play Mario Kart 8 already did that on Wii U so they are not going to buy it on Switch again."

I remember that sentiment people had before the Switch launched. And while it's true that not every Wii U owner would double dip people forgot that there was a whole audience out there who hasn't played a Mario Kart for a while.

FGPack · Jan 30, 2020

I don't wanna even imagine what would happen, after Animal Crossing, if we get a brand new Monster Hunter. Damn you Capcom ç.ç

HardRojo · Jan 30, 2020

Glad to see Luigi is eating good, I'll get on that after Odyssey. SwSh numbers are going to reach 20M easily this year and GF still sadly continue down the sad path of barely any innovation. Smash needs to sell more, that bad boy needs to reach 30M units.

lovecatt · Jan 30, 2020

they should really consider expanding the top ten best selling software to a top twenty

Herb Alpert · Jan 30, 2020

It's striking to witness that when the hardware is desirable, software sales can express their full potential. 3ds (small 240p screen) and WiiU (lol) really hold back some software.

Dr. Mario · Jan 30, 2020

So uhm, is it me or would this put it significantly above even PS4s worldwide sales at the time?

From March 2017 to December 2019 is 34 months, leading to 52.48M sales.
PS4 released in November, but let's say December due to the staggered release, 2013. 34 Months out is September 2016. According to Wikipedia, PS4 was at 40M in May 2016 and 50M in December 2016. So say about 45M?

Of course the release timing is a bit different, but at this point they would have the same amount of holidays?

Skittzo · Jan 30, 2020

Seems they are still heeding the lesson from last year about not overshooting their forecasts. 19.5M aka 1.8M in Q4 will be easily demolished.

Limabean01 · Jan 30, 2020

you know whats fucking crazy? MK8 just had the best quarter it has ever experienced. 2.5 years into its life. 5.5 even, if you want to count it from the wii u.

also, i knew astral chain would have a massive digital share... but two thirds of its sales being digital is insane.

Zedark said:
Here's a revenue and profit graph by Zhuge, that's probably the best comparison to make:

Switch revenue and profit rival the Wii+DS era, although the latter is still above Switch era.

i find it very odd that their net revenue was down year on year this quarter? i know 2018 was boosted significantly by smash, but you'd think pokemon + legacy game sales + much higher hardware sales would give it an increase yoy.

Lelouch0612 · Jan 30, 2020

Limabean01 said:
you know whats fucking crazy? MK8 just had the best quarter it has ever experienced. 2.5 years into its life. 5.5 even, if you want to count it from the wii u.

also, i knew astral chain would have a massive digital share... but two thirds of its sales being digital is insane.

i find it very odd that their net revenue was down year on year this quarter? i know 2018 was boosted significantly by smash, but you'd think pokemon + legacy game sales + much higher hardware sales would give it an increase yoy.

The Lite costs 100$ less than the standard Switch and represented a big share of their HW sales.

Numberfox · Jan 30, 2020

Considering Persona 5's current sales numbers were at 3.2 mil last I checked, I feel like 2.85 million sales is pretty solid for FE: Three Houses in a fraction of the time (2017 vs 2019).

Obsonet · Jan 30, 2020

FGPack said:
I don't wanna even imagine what would happen, after Animal Crossing, if we get a brand new Monster Hunter. Damn you Capcom ç.ç

They should just make their own one, it would sell well and then they wouldn't have to worry about it with future consoles.
I know it's not really what Nintendo do but it would work.

Zedark · Jan 30, 2020

Dr. Mario said:
So uhm, is it me or would this put it significantly above even PS4s worldwide sales at the time?

From March 2017 to December 2019 is 34 months, leading to 52.48M sales.
PS4 released in November, but let's say December due to the staggered release, 2013. 34 Months out is September 2016. According to Wikipedia, PS4 was at 40M in May 2016 and 50M in December 2016. So say about 45M?

Of course the release timing is a bit different, but at this point they would have the same amount of holidays?

PS4 was at 57.1M shipped as of December 2016.

KtSlime · Jan 30, 2020

Zedark said:
Hmm, I haven't seen any report say that specifically a new gen system would come, only that a new Switch revision (a category which fits anything from Switch Lite, Switch Pro, and Switch 2) is coming. A 3.5 year generations would be unprecedented, even the WiiU got 4.5 years. I wouldn't expect a new gen Switch until 2023 myself.

I wonder if Switch does get a revision and there is a distinction between software if people are going to consider it still gen 8. Nintendo will be gen 8 till the end of time.

kvetcha · Jan 30, 2020

Dr. Mario said:
So uhm, is it me or would this put it significantly above even PS4s worldwide sales at the time?

From March 2017 to December 2019 is 34 months, leading to 52.48M sales.
PS4 released in November, but let's say December due to the staggered release, 2013. 34 Months out is September 2016. According to Wikipedia, PS4 was at 40M in May 2016 and 50M in December 2016. So say about 45M?

Of course the release timing is a bit different, but at this point they would have the same amount of holidays?

because of the holiday timing you'll notice their sales charts wind around each other in a helix. whichever had the most recent holiday leads.

Celine · Jan 30, 2020

Dr. Mario said:
So uhm, is it me or would this put it significantly above even PS4s worldwide sales at the time?

From March 2017 to December 2019 is 34 months, leading to 52.48M sales.
PS4 released in November, but let's say December due to the staggered release, 2013. 34 Months out is September 2016. According to Wikipedia, PS4 was at 40M in May 2016 and 50M in December 2016. So say about 45M?

Of course the release timing is a bit different, but at this point they would have the same amount of holidays?

Graph by ZHugeEX:

Graph with comparisons with past Nintendo consoles (3DS is going to eat the dust from this point in time on).

CaviarMeths · Jan 30, 2020

Dr. Mario said:
So uhm, is it me or would this put it significantly above even PS4s worldwide sales at the time?

From March 2017 to December 2019 is 34 months, leading to 52.48M sales.
PS4 released in November, but let's say December due to the staggered release, 2013. 34 Months out is September 2016. According to Wikipedia, PS4 was at 40M in May 2016 and 50M in December 2016. So say about 45M?

Of course the release timing is a bit different, but at this point they would have the same amount of holidays?

It's about 5m ahead of PS4 launch aligned, but the gap will be more narrow after this quarter. Switch launched in March while PS4 launched in November, so Switch had the benefit of both a launch quarter and holiday quarter in its first year while PS4 didn't.

Not sure of the actual month breakdown, but PS4 was at 47.4m after 12 quarters.

Seanlole · Jan 30, 2020

Happy to see LM3 performing this well

Zedark · Jan 30, 2020

Limabean01 said:
you know whats fucking crazy? MK8 just had the best quarter it has ever experienced. 2.5 years into its life. 5.5 even, if you want to count it from the wii u.

also, i knew astral chain would have a massive digital share... but two thirds of its sales being digital is insane.

i find it very odd that their net revenue was down year on year this quarter? i know 2018 was boosted significantly by smash, but you'd think pokemon + legacy game sales + much higher hardware sales would give it an increase yoy.

Pokémon Let's Go and Smash combined probably made for a big amount of revenue. Hardware revenue is attenuated this quarter due to the Lite, while profit is probably untouched. That could explain the discrepancy.

Lelouch0612 · Jan 30, 2020

HardRojo said:
Glad to see Luigi is eating good, I'll get on that after Odyssey. SwSh numbers are going to reach 20M easily this year and GF still sadly continue down the sad path of barely any innovation. Smash needs to sell more, that bad boy needs to reach 30M units.

One of the reason Sw/Sh is legging so well is thanks to its additions (mainly the Raids). Don't really want to go into that argument again but saying "it does not have any significant innovation" is inaccurate.

Dr. Mario · Jan 30, 2020

Celine said:
Graph by ZHugeEX:

Graph which with comparisons with past Nintendo consoles (3DS is going to eat the dust from this point in time).

Thanks! On visual inspection it would be very close from now on whether Switch stays ahead or ducks under PS4 again, but at the same time, the fourth and fifth years of PS4 were uncharacteristically strong.

Skittzo · Jan 30, 2020

MK8 will probably outsell MKWii LTD at this point. Thank goodness, because MKWii is one of the worst entries.

New Donker · Jan 30, 2020

As a long time Nintendo fan, it's awesome to see switch doing so well. I'm seriously considering waiting on ps5 since I barely touch my ps4 now (haven't played anything since division 2). If you told me that 3 years ago I'd think you're crazy.

CaviarMeths · Jan 30, 2020

Dr. Mario said:
Thanks! On visual inspection it would be very close from now on whether Switch stays ahead or ducks under PS4 again, but at the same time, the fourth and fifth years of PS4 were uncharacteristically strong.

Not that uncharacteristic. PS3 and Xbox 360 both had very strong late life. 360 in particular peaked in its 7th(!) year on market while PS3 almost hit its peak in the 6th. And of course the PS2 is famous for selling like another 40m units after its successor was already out.

It's mostly just Nintendo systems that don't typically have those strong late life legs.

Advance.Wars.Sgt. · Jan 30, 2020

Switch really is the GBA redux.

I always wondered how the original GBA would've performed had it been given a full life. The market circumstances are assuredly different this time around, but Switch may be the closest I get to an answer.

Deleted member 9584 · Jan 30, 2020

Limabean01 said:
you know whats fucking crazy? MK8 just had the best quarter it has ever experienced. 2.5 years into its life. 5.5 even, if you want to count it from the wii u.

also, i knew astral chain would have a massive digital share... but two thirds of its sales being digital is insane.

i find it very odd that their net revenue was down year on year this quarter? i know 2018 was boosted significantly by smash, but you'd think pokemon + legacy game sales + much higher hardware sales would give it an increase yoy.

A lot of the increased hardware sales is due to the Switch Lite, which is $100 cheaper than the regular Switch. That probably has a lot to do with it. They sold more systems, but selling the Lite cut into the extra revenue of the OG.

KtSlime · Jan 30, 2020

CaviarMeths said:
It's about 5m ahead of PS4 launch aligned, but the gap will be more narrow after this quarter. Switch launched in March while PS4 launched in November, so Switch had the benefit of both a launch quarter and holiday quarter in its first year while PS4 didn't.

Not sure of the actual month breakdown, but PS4 was at 47.4m after 12 quarters.

PS4 in part also had a launch quarter. While it may be possible to say that since it launched in fall that the launch got nullified by holiday quarter, but there are countries that it did not launch in until after the holiday quarter, very close to the same time the Switch launched... Surely if it didn't benefit from the launch before the holidays it did from the launch after the holidays.

TheZjman · Jan 30, 2020

aeroslash said:
I wasn't aware that Switch was selling like that.
It seems good news for them, but lastly they went from a two consoles model to a single one..

Going from two consoles to one has been a sound business decision and i would argue is a massive part of the switch's success. It's meant all the dev teams can constantly work on games leaving no huge droughts or delays and keeping people hooked.

HardRojo · Jan 30, 2020

Lelouch0612 said:
One of the reason Sw/Sh is legging so well is thanks to its additions (mainly the Raids). Don't really want to go into that argument again but saying "it does not have any significant innovation" is inaccurate.

Point taken. As an ex hardcore Go player, Raids were something that interested me a lot during the initial reveal. I would say SwSh are doing well despite their shortcomings though, I've had that game since release and after the 8th medal I haven't touched the game at all.

Deleted member 21411 · Jan 30, 2020

That attachment rate tho, it's not just console sales everything is doing well

Joedev · Jan 30, 2020

Kinda crazy how many of Nintendo's 2019 games were million sellers:

NSMBDX
Mario Maker 2
Fire Emblem: Three Houses
Link's Awakening
Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3
Luigi's Mansion 3
Astral Chain
Ring Fit Adventure
Pokemon Sword and Shield

9 new million sellers... and add that to their evergreen titles that are also million sellers!

MasonADC · Jan 30, 2020

Numberfox said:
Considering Persona 5's current sales numbers were at 3.2 mil last I checked, I feel like 2.85 million sales is pretty solid for FE: Three Houses in a fraction of the time (2017 vs 2019).

2.58 million

Limabean01 · Jan 30, 2020

stealthyfrog said:
Is 20 million on the table now?

it always was.

Lelouch0612 said:
The Lite costs 100$ less than the standard Switch and represented a big share of their HW sales.

Zedark said:
Pokémon Let's Go and Smash combined probably made for a big amount of revenue. Hardware revenue is attenuated this quarter due to the Lite, while profit is probably untouched. That could explain the discrepancy.

Scrawnton said:
A lot of the increased hardware sales is due to the Switch Lite, which is $100 cheaper than the regular Switch. That probably has a lot to do with it. They sold more systems, but selling the Lite cut into the extra revenue of the OG.

ugh, of course. can't believe i forgot to factor in the lite's difference in price. thanks

Omnistalgic · Jan 30, 2020

If PS4 is the beast we need a new unique equally ferocious name for Switch.

The strategy to combine development was sounds, Switch will be another 100 million seller more than likely.

Andri · Jan 30, 2020

Lukemia SL said:
Show me numbers not people. Dude's saying it didn't pass Xbox One last year not this year.

The guy is basically MS PR anyway.
He also had a thread where he said Switch outsold Xbox, but it does not matter because MS only makes 6% of their revenue from Xbox, because MS is a Megacorp that does gaming on the side, while Nintendo is a Gaming company all the way.
Basically, dont mention XB unless its doing good, and never compare it if the comp isnt favorable.

Bosch · Jan 30, 2020

3 games I really want to buy: Zelda LAW, Astral Chain and LM3

Nintendo FY3/2020 Q3 Earnings Release, Switch Hardware 52.48M LTD, Forecast revisions for HW/SW

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