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Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,186
Yes I made this argument before and I think the overshipment was running through both quarters and will now affect Q4. Nintendo shipped 15.6 Mio. Units from July to December. The switch is selling like bonkers, but come on, they never sold so many units through during that period. Especially the shipped numbers for Switch Lite should be much above the real sell-through numbers.

Due to that, I think that the following quarters should be a bit lower. I don't expect Q4 to have numbers like 4 Mio. or something like that. As I said, I expect approx 2.5 Mio. shipped units for Q4 and 20.2 Mio. units for fiscal year
There's been reports of low stock in the UK for a while now it's certainly not been overshipped there and switch sold on the closer end of 4 million in the US for the past 2 months.

It could be happening but I certainly wouldn't make that assumption or see any real evidence of it.
 

Simba1

Member
Dec 5, 2017
5,383
To add on that.


Nintendos million seller:


1. Pokémon Sword/Pokémon Shield
2. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
3. Luigiʼs Mansion 3
4. Super Mario Maker 2
5. The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening
6. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
7. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild
8. Super Mario Party
9. Fire Emblem: Three Houses
10. New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe
11. Ring Fit Adventure
12. SUPER MARIO ODYSSEY
13. Pokémon:Let'sGo,Pikachu!Pokémon:Let'sGo,Eevee!
14. Splatoon 2
15. ASTRAL CHAIN
16. MARVELULTIMATEALLIANCE3:TheBlackOrder


so that leaves us with 5 million sellers from 3rd party this FY


I guess Just Dance is one of them?

Thats not hole list, 1,2 Switch, Yoshi, Kirby, Donkey Kong...are not on that list.
 

Tialo

Member
Dec 4, 2019
1,064
Principate

Just a quick overview:

In the US, Nintendo sold through 4.67 Mio. Units of Switch HW from July to December (according to our NPD-Leaks we had). For whole Northamerica, this should lead to approx 5.5 Mio.

In Japan Switch sold through 3.01 mio. units according to Famitsu.

EU + Others is some kind of black box for us, but the numbers there should definetly NOT be bigger than in Northamerica. So in the best case, Switch sold another 5.5 Mio. Units there.

This lead us to a maximum of 14 Mio. sold units (most probably a bit lower, more in the range of 13 to 13.5 mio.). But Nintendo shipped 15.6 Mio. units in the same period.

As you can see, there is clearly some kind of overshipment and due to that, somewhen in the next quarters Nintendo has to reduce their shipments. The numbers are for sure quite impressive anyway, that is not the point. But as I explained recently, don't expect the next quarters to be so strong!
 

MisterSpo

One Winged Slayer
Member
Feb 12, 2019
9,080
Fun fact: To reach 52.06 million units it took the 3DS 17 quarters (or ~49 months) while the Switch just needed 12 quarters (~34 months).

Great Switch numbers and we are halfway there but now begins the hard part to reach the 100 million. It won't be easy but I believe.

I wonder why they didn't change the FY forecast to 20m. Because as of right now they just expect to ship 1.76m consoles this quarter which seems to be really low. Maybe they already shipped a lot of stock for this quarter in the last one in preparation for AC?
I mean, it is possible there's a lot of stock in the chain globally. There have been shortages of the standard model in the UK, but I've not seen any evidence to say that's the case globally.

Also possible Nintendo are being conservative. 1.76m does seem low. If I remember rightly, it did around 2.5 million last year, and that was also after a huge quarter 3.
 

Forkball

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,940
Fire Emblem deserves ten times the sales. Who here didn't buy it? Give me names. Give me the names of your loved ones. Tell me your dreams so I may crush them.

psnsmbudxgoat
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
Principate

Just a quick overview:

In the US, Nintendo sold through 4.67 Mio. Units of Switch HW from July to December (according to our NPD-Leaks we had). For whole Northamerica, this should lead to approx 5.5 Mio.

In Japan Switch sold through 3.01 mio. units according to Famitsu.

EU + Others is some kind of black box for us, but the numbers there should definetly NOT be bigger than in Northamerica. So in the best case, Switch sold another 5.5 Mio. Units there.

This lead us to a maximum of 14 Mio. sold units. But Nintendo shipped 15.6 Mio. units in the same period.

As you can see, there is clearly some kind of overshipment and due to that, somewhere in the next quarters Nintendo has to reduce their shipments. The numbers are for sure quite impressive anyway, that is not the point. But as I explained recently, don't expect the next quarters to be so strong!
You should include Week 1 sell-though in your calculation (since week 1 Switchs are already shipped at the end of December). That brings the sell-through total pretty close to the shipped number (1m-1.5m difference which is usual).
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
Can't Dragon Quest be one of them? It did like 500k in Japan, is it too much to hope it did another 500k in the rest of the world?
Overall yes, it is pretty sure.

However, DQ XI S is published by SE in Japan and Nintendo in the West. Meaning, it would need to ship 1m+ in the West to appear in Nintendo's earnings.
 

MajorBritten

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
1,080
Amazing results. One stat that caught me by surprise is that LTD software sales on the switch have already almost reached the LTD software sales of the 3DS.

Also if the rumors of a switch pro are true Nintendo are going to make an absolute killing this year.
 

jariw

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,283
- FIFA 20
- Crash Team Racing
- Mario & Sonic
- Just Dance
- The Witcher 3

Would be my guesses.

Cuphead must have sold more than some of these during the FY, even if there is no retail version. Stardew Valley could also have sold 1M this FY.

That true, but people are mostly think about general million sellers on Switch, not just last FY.

The financial report just lists the 1st party games that sold 1M+ during the current FY.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
Cuphead must have sold more than some of these during the FY, even if there is no retail version. Stardew Valley could also have sold 1M this FY.



The financial report just lists the 1st party games that sold 1M+ during the current FY.
Only games with a retail version are reported in these earnings.
 

Tialo

Member
Dec 4, 2019
1,064
You should include Week 1 sell-though in your calculation (since week 1 Switchs are already shipped at the end of December). That brings the sell-through total pretty close to the shipped number (1m-1.5m difference which is usual).

You are right, but due to that, their shipments for Q4 should also be lower (and for US-Sales, the Week 1 numbers are already included because of NPD tracking period)

In the last two years, Nintendo shipped less units in Q4 as the sold-through number was. I think this will happen in 2020 again, because the stock chain should be filled pretty good now. There is a reason why Nintendo "only" highered their goal to 19.5 Mio. units and not to 22 Mio. as an example.
 

Mbolibombo

Member
Oct 29, 2017
7,043
Hollow Knight did receive a physical version, I could honestly see it as a million seller this FY as well. It's constantly charting high.

That true, but people are mostly think about general million sellers on Switch, not just last FY.

Not in this discussion no, then we would know many many more. Not just from Nintendo.

So it would need to do 1m+ in either Japan or RotW to be counted, that's a bit weird.
Any chance we get some data from Square Enix themselves ? I'm curious at how well it did worldwide

If it sells 1M in the west, it would have been noted in the Supplemental, if it did 1M in Japan it would have been a part of that list.

Square could announce numbers themselves, much like they did with Octopath Traveller.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
So it would need to do 1m+ in either Japan or RotW to be counted, that's a bit weird.
Any chance we get some data from Square Enix themselves ? I'm curious at how well it did worldwide
It is possible since it is the big game of their fiscal year.

It was the same situation as with Octopath.
 

Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
No because the ~550k sales from JP count as 3rd party but the Western sales as 1st party.
Being both a 1st/3rd party title doesn't preclude it from that list if it sells less than 1 million in the west that total still can be combined with the Japanese sales to make 1 million. I think it is very likely one of the 5 other million sellers along with FIFA, Minecraft, MK11, and Mario + Sonic.
 

Naga

Alt account
Banned
Aug 29, 2019
7,850
Best Q3 since 2009 is really impressive. Weird that they're still keeping really low expectations when everyone expects them to beat those.
Time for a Direct to update their schedule for this year now :p

Mobile revenue would be higher if they allowed Dragalia Lost to be played in more than a handful of countries.
 

Deleted member 8593

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
27,176
Third parties when they see these figures

tenor.gif

Is Ron Swanson Capcom when Nintendo comes asking for Monster Hunter on Switch?
 

Tialo

Member
Dec 4, 2019
1,064
Fun fact: Nintendo shipped almost the same Switch Units in 2019 as they did for Gamecube in a lifetime.
 

Rand a. Thor

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
10,213
Greece
Switch software continues to sell at a ludicrous almost illegal rate, just holy shit at some of those numbers. There really is something magical about playing the same game anywhere, anytime, any way its undeniable. Ending the 3rd FY rounding the corner of 60 at 55-56m is certainly viable, and its finally going to hit the 20m milestone. Bit late imo, but with the momentum they built up now I can see it doing those kinda numbers for FY2020 and 2021 if they play their cards right. Overall between HW LTD and SW LTD I really can't see Nintendo abandoning the switch concept in any foreseeable future and they will likely build off it for their next consumer product, including both physical and digital backwards compatibility to allow for seamless mass migration of the existing userbase.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
Being both a 1st/3rd party title doesn't preclude it from that list if it sells less than 1 million in the west that total still can be combined with the Japanese sales to make 1 million. I think it is very likely one of the 5 other million sellers along with FIFA, Minecraft, MK11, and Mario + Sonic.
It is just how they report the sales of their games shrug