Switch software is insane. Their FY18 forecast of 110M is laughable.
Quarterly First Party Software + Hardware Shipments
BOTW CY 2017: 6,700,000 (~10 months)
BOTW CY 2018: 4,980,000 (-25.7%)
Should be a strong Q4 for BOTW - new hardware adopters alongside Pokemon/Smash will continue to pick this up. But I think the legs will look really impressive post Animal-Crossing. That should draw the female demo big time, and I imagine that of the current evergreens, BOTW probably has the strongest appeal in that demo.
Still think it can slow march to 20M shipped with Wii U. I am guessing at a FY2020 Q3 launch for the next 3D Zelda (would be ~44 months of dev time if they began right after BOTW's release), which theoretically would kill its legs. So ~3.25M shipped in CY 2019 (-35%) and another ~2.0M in CY 2020 (-38%) would be just under 17M when the next title launches, and just under 19M with Wii U added in (>1.5M sell-through as of Dec 2017). Another million or so shipped after that for however many years does not sound crazy (especially if it eventually gets "Selects"-type status, plus bundles late in NSW's lifetime).
Either way, this is uncharted territory for a franchise turning 33 this month. Between SW/DLC/Amiibos/Add-ons/Accessories, this is
by far the revenue peak for the series.
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MK8D CY 2017: 7,330,000 (<9 months)
MK8D CY 2018: 7,690,000 (+4.9%)
Should have a soft drop this year, but who the hell knows? I think it's targeting a 35M LTD right now, with no expectation of MK9 on the horizon. It shipped 85% of the Wii U version's LTD (8.42M) in the first year and >90% of its LTD in the second year, and its not even receiving strong DLC support, though it did have a solid bundle in Nov (US) and Dec (Eur). If Nintendo throws something its way, I would not be surprised if it stays flat in 2019 - around 22.5M by the end of the year with no signs of stopping (MK Wii is still charting on Amazon US Top 100 weekly SW to this day). Remarkable SW performance.
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SMO CY 2017: 9,070,000 (>2 months)
SMO CY 2018: 4,690,000 (-48.3%)
SMO has stabilized in the 2nd half of 2018 despite actually shipping less this calendar year than BOTW did.
Given no DLC support so far, I think a sequel is definitely in the works. Spring 2020 seems possible IMO - it would be the same pattern as the Galaxy series followed if they push it out sometime in April - Jun 2020 (Nov 2007 > May 2010), exactly 10 years later. Given that, I think 20M might be a stretch. A 30-40% drop this year puts it on target for another 3M, so approaching 17M by the end of the year. I think a good % of the 3M target after that would have to come prior to a sequel. Still, stunning peak performance for the 3D Mario sub-series. Only good signs ahead.
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Pokemon is blazing. Sales-wise it hardly missed a beat despite being priced 50% higher than past entries. It's pacing ahead of SMO from last year with a later release week, and basically matching SSBU's performance outside of Japan. I'm sure its legs will tail off with the release of gen 8 later this year (which might be record-setting for a Nintendo release, especially on the revenue side), but a hardware price-cut or lite/cheaper revision might help mitigate that throughout the first 3 quarters. I think we all know that more of these LG titles are on the way.
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Smash is unbelievable, much has already been said. Given momentum from the late calendar release, potential HW revisions/price-cuts, and a full year of DLC support en-route, I think it pushes out another 7-8M shipped in 2019, targeting 20M by the end of the year and then tacking on another 35-50% of that figure for an LTD in the 25-30M.
