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Eeyore

User requested ban
Banned
Dec 13, 2019
9,029
First off...I don't care about trusting whoever random person on the internet...I look at logic from a business perspective, developer perspective, and consumer one from my own background. I'm more interested in streaming games than the console hardware (but not many people talk about streaming here as they allude to it being some fairy tale in some long distant future) as that has more interesting parts in it to me nor do I care who is "stronger than who" even if I have my own predictions on who I think is "stronger" (which can also mean a lot of things but whatever).

These companies do things to one up each other, but it's planned far in advanced outside of some things that they can control in the near term. Yes, they definitely have their own goals in mind (as each company should). My assessment is based off of assumed cost (to consumer and business) vs. performance and how much one is gaining with differentiated features.

These aren't random people. We have information from the system architect who made a statement. It's frustrating for you to act like that context isn't important to why people are thinking and speculating in a certain direction.

As far as streaming games, that's where you and I differ, there's no way I'd ever choose to stream a game over downloading it or installing from disc. Also the ramifications of ownership and preservation of games makes me hope that Stadia, a product that only offers streaming games, fails miserably. As far as Microsoft and Sony's aspirations, at least they both will offer physical and downloadable alternatives.

What is the assumed cost of a drive with the speed we're talking about here? I've seen numbers passed around in this thread, but I'm curious why you think so definitively that it's not possible.
 

chris 1515

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,074
Barcelona Spain
And I talk about it for a long time Sony is not doing something new with the SSD, this customization exists in Datacenter. This is different because they tailored the "Parallel NAND Flash" to be used for gaming. They have a special file format specially tailored to SSD (File Archive) for the game and hardware modification(secondary CPU, ASIC hardware decompressor, custom controller, SRAM for address translation and cache and a special queue system).

This is not magic and the funny things the SSD strip-down of many unuseful features of NVMe for gaming will be very cost-efficient.
 

ArabianPrynce

Member
Jun 1, 2019
234
In regards to the price discussion I am gonna take cernys word "PS5 price will be appealing to gamers in light of its advanced feature set". To me this screams its going to be more expesive(499) but its advance tech will justify that price.
 

gundamkyoukai

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,129
And I talk about it for a long time Sony is not doing something new with the SSD, this customization exists in Datacenter. They have a special file format specially tailored to SSD (File Archive) for the game and hardware modification(secondary CPU, ASIC hardware decompressor, custom controller).

This is not magic and the funny things the SSD strip-down of many unuseful features will probably be very cost-efficient.

It lost cause for some people .
They think custom mean more expensive for no reason .
Also they links to show people have been doing research into this stuff for years and some of it already there like data centers .
It's because it's a close system that they can try and do new things with the SSD.
 

chris 1515

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,074
Barcelona Spain
It lost cause for some people .
They think custom mean more expensive for no reason .
Also they links to show people have been doing research into this stuff for years and some of it already there like data centers .
It's because it's a close system that they can try and do new things with the SSD.

Classic filesystems were created for HDD, same serial I/O work well with HDD. SSD works better with the filesystem created for them and parallels I/O. parallel I/O is slower than serial I/O on HDD. The day people will understand Sony was just clever probably read R&D about what other peoples have done in datacenters and come with the idea to do the same but with gaming and be able to be cost-efficient.
 

Kasey

Member
Nov 1, 2017
10,822
Boise
I hope we get Spider-Man 2 but realistically that's probably an E3 2020 thing at the earliest. Still, they chose Spider-Man for the first Wired article so it'd be fitting to show the sequel when you actually reveal the console.

Can't imagine how it'll look AND play on PS5.

15523.gif
It's possible some new games and sequels will only appear in a tech demo form (ie small slices meant to show off new engines, SSD loading times, not anything revelatory in regards to plot or gameplay). That's what I expect from the rumored The Initiative game reveal.
 

gundamkyoukai

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,129
He has given us

Sparkman aka Lockhart with HW RT and VRS when Lockhart was still dead.

He gaves us 2.0ghz clock for Oberon. The BC modes for the Oberon GPU.

He gave RGT the total CU count.

Obviously the names you mentioned.

Total CU count for what ?
None of the data he has given us has lead to anything other than people trying to fit in where they want.
 

Iwao

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,798
- Launch lineup will be better on Xbox.
I think like with the hardware itself, the launch lineup will be more on par than ever before.

It's not easy to know what Xbox is going to have outside Halo Infinite and Forza 8, but they've always seemed to have front-loaded launches for their consoles so I'd expect those 2 games, a handful of indies and about 3-4 larger games. Maybe more if any XGS games become delayed.

Now Sony, they've been known over the past 2 gens to have a lackluster launch lineup, but I personally think this is something that will change for the PS5. Some of their WWS have not released a game for years, there have been rumours of certain titles, and they have also made the official statement that they want a faster transition than before. Exclusive games is one thing really what will get people moving to new hardware. So launch titles imo will be: Ratchet 2, GodFall, Bluepoint's remake and GT7, with a handful of indies and a couple of larger games.
 

BOT Zé

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
451
i predicted 12 tflops for anaconda which has already come true. i wasnt expecting only 16 gb ram total or only 2gb/s ssd speeds. so i will concede i was wrong there. maybe ms should think about adding 4gb of ddr4 for os. i do think phil will increase clocks to get to 13 if ps5 is at 13 or 14.

as for my ps5 predictions. i am no longer sure of hbm2, smaller flute cpu and thus higher ps5 clocks at a relatively high 56 cus. i mean if it was so easy phil wouldve done the same. but then again, the ssd speeds are super low so maybe not. phil also seems super sure about this, but klee seems to have stuck with his guns. oberon news doesnt fill me with confidence either.

that said, im going all in. every dream has come true. so what the hell. im gonna stick with my original gcn prediction of 14 tflops, this time rdna tflops. i think they are aiming for 14 tflops just like how ms is aiming for 12 tflops. thats why i believe the CU count to be 56. its how you get to 14 with 2.0 ghz.

  • CPU - 3.2 ghz 8mb L3 cache
  • RAM- 12gb hbm2 12 gb drr4
  • SSD- 5+gbps. 2 TB
  • 50-100 GB- ReRam
  • GPU- ~14 tflops. 54-56 CU at 1.95 ghz. 7nm EUV
  • $499
as for how? i think samsung is making everything from then. from the ssd, reram to the apu and ram. they will still take a $100 loss. both of them. lockhart wont come out at launch.

HBM2 and ReRam for 500? LOL

Oh man, and 2TB SDD. Please give me what you are smoking dude.
 

DukeBlueBall

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
9,059
Seattle, WA
Total CU count for what ?
None of the data he has given us has lea d to anything other than people trying to fit in where they want.

Good thing for me what I want is the truth.

www.resetera.com

Next-gen PS5 and next Xbox speculation launch thread |OT7| - nm

Xb1 and xb1x had 4/8 RBEs respectively, with 16 / 32 ROPs total respectively. PS4 had 8 RBEs. This is likely referring to BC for XB1 (Gen0), which had 16 ROPS. Guessing Scorpio would be Gen1. Similar set up the Gen0(PS4), Gen1(Pro), Gen2(Oberon) labeling used on Sony's side. Since Komachi...
 

Deleted member 12635

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
6,198
Germany
Total CU count for what ?
None of the data he has given us has lea d to anything other than people trying to fit in where they want.
I wouldn't say so. He provided the link between GPU variant and the Codenames of the different SOCs. The GPU variant tells you the max CU count. Navi 10 = 40, Navi 14 = 24.

Flutter made a good summary just recently about it! Also thread marked!
 
Last edited:
Aug 26, 2019
6,342
It's possible some new games and sequels will only appear in a tech demo form (ie small slices meant to show off new engines, SSD loading times, not anything revelatory in regards to plot or gameplay). That's what I expect from the rumored The Initiative game reveal.
Yeah I could see this happening. There was a small slice of Spider-Man gameplay at the PS4 Pro reveal that was just there to show off the detail in his suit in 4K.
 

gundamkyoukai

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,129
Good thing for me what I want is the truth.

www.resetera.com

Next-gen PS5 and next Xbox speculation launch thread |OT7| - nm

Xb1 and xb1x had 4/8 RBEs respectively, with 16 / 32 ROPs total respectively. PS4 had 8 RBEs. This is likely referring to BC for XB1 (Gen0), which had 16 ROPS. Guessing Scorpio would be Gen1. Similar set up the Gen0(PS4), Gen1(Pro), Gen2(Oberon) labeling used on Sony's side. Since Komachi...

If you wanted the truth you would have not said that there was a miscommunicated with the numbers.
To try and fit into what you want .
 

isahn

Member
Nov 15, 2017
990
Roma
Classic filesystems were created for HDD, same serial I/O work well with HDD. SSD works better with the filesystem created for them and parallels I/O. parallel I/O is slower than serial I/O on HDD. The day people will understand Sony was just clever probably read R&D about what other peoples have done in datacenters and come with the idea to do the same but with gaming and be able to be cost-efficient.
in the datacenter people use distributed network filesystem like lustre, gpfs, gfs, etc not sure how this technology could help Sony
 

chris 1515

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,074
Barcelona Spain
in the datacenter people use distributed network filesystem like lustre, gpfs, gfs, etc not sure how this technology could help Sony

I said it is different because the needs are different but the people tailor the system to their needs. They don't need to do the same thing but understand than the SSD is fully customizable to a gaming platform.

I just said customize a SSD is not new and not magic, other people did it before Sony but for different workload.
 

gundamkyoukai

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,129
in the datacenter people use distributed network filesystem like lustre, gpfs, gfs, etc not sure how this technology could help Sony

It's not suppose to help Sony.
It's to show they customize SSD for datacenters .
They same way how Sony will customised there SSD for games in a close box system.
There is no need for the SSD to be a jack of all trades since it's not a PC .
 

Kreten

Banned
Nov 16, 2019
323
You are in for surprise, and a big one.
You are claiming to have inside knowledge now? Please contact admins to get verified.
Those Xbox numbers are the leaked ones from Windows Central, and the PS5 numbers are derived from Cerny's statement and the patents (which even show numbers going up to 10 GB/s afair).
what sony statements claim over 5GB/s? If you looked at all the benchmarked drives on website I posted earlier you would have seen none were higher than 2.5GB/s. Patents mean absolutely 0 just as MS VRS patent means 0.
So despite Mark C stating definitively that the SSD would be faster than anything available at the time of that article we're just going to low-ball it because "hey, why not?" And PS5 is going to be better in every category but also come in $50 cheaper? Hey man, are y'all alright?
take a look at user benchmarks and tell me what is much faster than 2GB/s?
 

nolifebr

Banned
Sep 1, 2018
11,465
Curitiba/BR
I think like with the hardware itself, the launch lineup will be more on par than ever before.

It's not easy to know what Xbox is going to have outside Halo Infinite and Forza 8, but they've always seemed to have front-loaded launches for their consoles so I'd expect those 2 games, a handful of indies and about 3-4 larger games. Maybe more if any XGS games become delayed.

Now Sony, they've been known over the past 2 gens to have a lackluster launch lineup, but I personally think this is something that will change for the PS5. Some of their WWS have not released a game for years, there have been rumours of certain titles, and they have also made the official statement that they want a faster transition than before. Exclusive games is one thing really what will get people moving to new hardware. So launch titles imo will be: Ratchet 2, GodFall, Bluepoint's remake and GT7, with a handful of indies and a couple of larger games.

I think almost all Sony studios don't have time to develop something big for the launch of the PS5. Unless they are much smaller games than Sony has been making for the last 3 years, I can't see much other than a new Japan Studio game. Sony probably will pay for other third party games to be exclusive at launch, just as they will with Godfall.
 

AegonSnake

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
9,566
HBM2 and ReRam for 500? LOL

Oh man, and 2TB SDD. Please give me what you are smoking dude.
$600 actually. i said they will take a hundred dollar loss and sell it for $499.

their ssd and reram tech is their own propitiatory tech. it wont cost as much if they were to buy it from a third party.

there were several hbm2 estimates given a few pages ago. $60 for 8gb was mentioned. should be cheaper than 8gb gddr6.
 

chris 1515

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,074
Barcelona Spain
You are claiming to have inside knowledge now? Please contact admins to get verified.

what sony statements claim over 5GB/s? If you looked at all the benchmarked drives on website I posted earlier you would have seen none were higher than 2.5GB/s. Patents mean absolutely 0 just as MS VRS patent means 0.

take a look at user benchmarks and tell me what is much faster than 2GB/s?

And Mike Ybarra told PS5 SSD faster than any PC SSD is a fact. He is since two months at Activision Blizzard. And he had all the time to see how fast Prospero SSD can fill the entire memory of the devkits. And I don't think he is a PS fanboy. ;)
 

Kreten

Banned
Nov 16, 2019
323
I'm not so sure about that, like I said:

- Sony knows that their next console will probably sell 80-100M -> Helps with negotiating contracts.

- For Microsoft this isn't guaranteed (XO sold 45M), they likely have to be more careful -> Makes negotiating contracts harder.

- Microsoft wants to have different SKUs from beginning, which means lower volumes for certain parts ordered - > Makes negotiating contracts harder.

- MIcrosoft doesn't know how XSX and Lockhart will sell. Will XSX sell more? Or Lockhart? - > Makes planning and negotiating contracts harder.

That's why I think they will initially price XSX at $499, and Lockhart maybe at $349, which is similar to current gen. Of course they will try to reduce price if Sony turns out to be cheaper, or will try pack-ins with Game Pass. But initially I think it's $499 for XSX.
How is it guaranteed for Sony that they'll sell 80-100M? Didn't PS2 go from 158M to ~80M? How can you say for certain that Anaconda and Lockheart are not using same APU like Anaconda rejects go into Lockheart? You do know that MS also has leverage of Surface? What about APUs that will go into Microsoft azure which will also power Sony cloud as per their shaken on intentions? Ohh and one more thing you are forgetting in your predictions is that Kinect played part in xbox one price as did needed esram.
 

isahn

Member
Nov 15, 2017
990
Roma
I said it is different because the needs are different but the people tailor the system to their needs. They don't need to do the same thing but understand than the SSD is fully customizable to a gaming platform.

I just said customize a SSD is not new and not magic, other people did it before Sony but for different workload.
It's not suppose to help Sony.
It's to show they customize SSD for datacenters .
They same way how Sony will customised there SSD for games in a close box system.
There is no need for the SSD to be a jack of all trades since it's not a PC .
fair enough if you are talking about SSD controllers, on the other hand referring to parallel, distributed filesystem used in the datacenter is totally inaccurate. Btw you can have enterprise storage solutions implemented on top mechanical HDDs.
 

Outrun

Member
Oct 30, 2017
5,782
User Banned (3 days): Trolling, ignoring staff post.
Where are we today?

Is the PS5 curbstomping the Series X now?
 

Kreten

Banned
Nov 16, 2019
323
And Mike Ybarra told PS5 SSD faster than any PC SSD is a fact. He is since two months at Activision Blizzard. And he had all the time to see how fast Prospero SSD can fill the entire memory of the devkits. And I don't think he is a PS fanboy. ;)
I'm not disputing that claim at all, I'm just convinced they were talking about widely available drives and not just released ones. I'd bet that Aorus is the first next gen SSD.
But looking at drives actual speeds and they are significantly lower than official speeds.

As for what you showed with baidu the other day to me that sounds like completely different type of drive formatting and something that a lot of things wouldn't be compatible with.
 

gundamkyoukai

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,129
I'm not disputing that claim at all, I'm just convinced they were talking about widely available drives and not just released ones. I'd bet that Aorus is the first next gen SSD.
But looking at drives actual speeds and they are significantly lower than official speeds.

As for what you showed with baidu the other day to me that sounds like completely different type of drive formatting and something that a lot of things wouldn't be compatible with.

All the SSD in PS5 have to be compatible with is PS5 software and hardware .
So it don't really matter how compatible is it with anything else.
 

Thorrgal

Member
Oct 26, 2017
12,325
I think one thing not very many people are talking about is what kind of a loss MS and Sony are willing to take. The landscape right now is so much different than it was seven years ago. Back then (iirc) you could say a console + a game or two could break even for a launch, but now you have digital sales taking over physical with their higher margins, PSN/Live continuing to grow, Gamepass/PS Now emerging, etc.

Not saying either company is willing to take a $250+ loss like with the PS3 but I don't think they'll stop at selling a $415 box for $399. Maybe a BOM of $475-500 for $399 isn't outside the realm of possibility?

If BOM is around $500, you have to add shipping & storage, take into account retailers cut, taxes, import dutties, and of course marketing, right?

So if BOM is around $500, I'd say retail would be around that, and they'll eat the cost of the other stuff, which could amount to maybe $100?

Maybe they take an extra $50 if they go crazy, for $449. That would be more likely for the PS5 if they only release 1 SKU, but still not that likely

I have no real expertise on the matter though, just a hunch.
 

Iwao

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,798
I think almost all Sony studios don't have time to develop something big for the launch of the PS5. Unless they are much smaller games than Sony has been making for the last 3 years, I can't see much other than a new Japan Studio game. Sony probably will pay for other third party games to be exclusive at launch, just as they will with Godfall.
Perhaps, but I still think it's realistic for a new R&C sequel (over 2y since Spider-Man, almost 4y since R&C), Bluepoint's PS5 project (almost 3y since SoTC) and GT7 (3y since Sport) to launch by around November 2020, with third party exclusives like Godfall complimenting them - and perhaps a new Japan Studio game as you mentioned (almost 3y since Gravity Rush 2).

You are claiming to have inside knowledge now? Please contact admins to get verified.
Nah. I'm putting two and two together: statements from Mark Cerny and published specs from Windows Central. Additionally, we have a degree of clarification from Mike Ybarra who works for Activision-Blizzard. It's hard to read it any other way.
 

Deeke

Member
Oct 25, 2017
966
United States
You are claiming to have inside knowledge now? Please contact admins to get verified.

what sony statements claim over 5GB/s? If you looked at all the benchmarked drives on website I posted earlier you would have seen none were higher than 2.5GB/s. Patents mean absolutely 0 just as MS VRS patent means 0.

take a look at user benchmarks and tell me what is much faster than 2GB/s?

Idk if Microsoft's VRS patent means 0. Phil Spencer literally referred to Microsoft's "patented VRS tech" in the Xbox SX news post:

Additionally, our patented Variable Rate Shading (VRS) technology will allow developers to get even more out of the Xbox Series X GPU
 

Deeke

Member
Oct 25, 2017
966
United States
Perhaps, but I still think it's realistic for a new R&C sequel (almost 2y since Spider-Man, almost 4y since R&C), Bluepoint's PS5 project (almost 3y since SoTC) and GT7 (3y since Sport) to launch by around November 2020, with third party exclusives like Godfall complimenting them - and perhaps a new Japan Studio game as you mentioned (almost 3y since Gravity Rush 2).

Nah. I'm putting two and two together: statements from Mark Cerny and published specs from Windows Central. Additionally, we have a degree of clarification from Mike Ybarra who works for Activision-Blizzard. It's hard to read it any other way.

Is the Ybarra clarification that one snippet from a live stream? I can't seem to find reference to that anywhere else but when it was shared on here.
 

chris 1515

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,074
Barcelona Spain
fair enough if you are talking about SSD controllers, on the other hand referring to parallel, distributed filesystem used in the datacenter is totally inaccurate. Btw you can have enterprise storage solutions implemented on top mechanical HDDs.


I just said some people customize the software for SSD in datacenter and Sony probably read some of the R&D before doing their own customization for gaming. I suppose the File archive filesystem is made for help to maximize the SSD read.

And I said for 6 months customize the software and hardware for SSD is not magic and not new. Some have done it for other needs than Sony.
 

Kreten

Banned
Nov 16, 2019
323
All the SSD in PS5 have to be compatible with is PS5 software and hardware .
So it don't really matter how compatible is it with anything else.
True, but it would add complexity to the software that gets ported. Also wouldn't increasing each block size by default ensure more SSD space is wasted too?

Is the Ybarra clarification that one snippet from a live stream? I can't seem to find reference to that anywhere else but when it was shared on here.
It was in RDX live chat on Tuesday
 

Kreten

Banned
Nov 16, 2019
323
Perhaps, but I still think it's realistic for a new R&C sequel (over 2y since Spider-Man, almost 4y since R&C), Bluepoint's PS5 project (almost 3y since SoTC) and GT7 (3y since Sport) to launch by around November 2020, with third party exclusives like Godfall complimenting them - and perhaps a new Japan Studio game as you mentioned (almost 3y since Gravity Rush 2).

Nah. I'm putting two and two together: statements from Mark Cerny and published specs from Windows Central. Additionally, we have a degree of clarification from Mike Ybarra who works for Activision-Blizzard. It's hard to read it any other way.
Ok are we taking Phil Spencers words as well? We can't have double standards.
Idk if Microsoft's VRS patent means 0. Phil Spencer literally referred to Microsoft's "patented VRS tech" in the Xbox SX news post:
I'm just saying that I've seen thousands of these patents that are awesome on paper and almost never end up in devices we hope for. VRS is available to everyone too.
 

Deeke

Member
Oct 25, 2017
966
United States
Ok are we taking Phil Spencers words as well? We can't have double standards.

I'm just saying that I've seen thousands of these patents that are awesome on paper and almost never end up in devices we hope for. VRS is available to everyone too.

Yeah im with you. 90% of the time patents don't mean much. Just in this particular instance it looks like at least some of the patent is being used
 

Kreten

Banned
Nov 16, 2019
323
And Mike Ybarra told PS5 SSD faster than any PC SSD is a fact. He is since two months at Activision Blizzard. And he had all the time to see how fast Prospero SSD can fill the entire memory of the devkits. And I don't think he is a PS fanboy. ;)
https://youtu.be/WcZtZaZmGwM

Start at 1:30:42 Mike Ybarra stating that Xbox SeX SSD is faster than anything available on PC today, this was on tuesday and I was just reminded of it.
 

Iwao

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,798

gundamkyoukai

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,129
True, but it would add complexity to the software that gets ported. Also wouldn't increasing each block size by default ensure more SSD space is wasted too?

If they think the add complexity is worth it they will do it and it might not even be hard with Sony tools.
It will come down to how they do there tools and from what we know Sony is good at that .
There was a interview with Jim where he said this was the fastest devs have had there software up and running PS system.
So it don't seem to be a problem .
 
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