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DukeBlueBall

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
9,059
Seattle, WA

AegonSnake

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
9,566
Back.

End of an Era - Banned for a meme.

Decided to come back with something meaningful.

Here it is!

My updated prediction.
lhqjNXj.png

Base:

for Xbox:

  • Xbox was easy. They already outlined the specs by multipliers. 2 times power of the Xbox One X GPU . What ever it is, as a firm value it will possibly fall into the range given by the prediction.
  • They also solved some issues I was so adamant doubtful about. Their design is an elegant way to solve cooling and noise. The format of at least 150mm x 150mm allows MS to use slow 140mm fans at the top and whatever they want at the bottom. If they would go with Noctua fans that thing would be not noticeable if the supposed cooler is able handle the heat dissipation.
  • If the 12 TF happens Xeontech will win our the avatar bet.
  • AegonSnake on the other hand, you are on record for 14TF and I think this I will not lose.

for PS5:
  • Still based on Oberon.This is the most firm spec rumor we still have about PS5. There is no other information out there that would convince me otherwise.
  • Yes, Oberon is 2Ghz. But with RDNA we now have 3 clocks: the base clock, the game clock and the boost clock (which is the 2Ghz). The game clock is below the boost clock and is the average achieved clock. I went from there.
  • I upped the spec by going full CU count (no deactivated cores for both predictions actually) and I also upped to clock to 1900 Mhz GPU.
  • I assume Sony will still have to manage the high clock implications with form factor or further clock down. The design of the PS5 dev kit is for me a clear indicator Sony knows about the challenges high clocks come with.

for both:
  • 3.2 Ghz CPU is a safe baseline. More is always better. And yes, I saw the WindowsCentral article.
  • 1TB NVMe SSD, I don't think it will be more
  • Memory and memory speed I see no difference, honestly
  • 13GB+3GB (16GB) was mentioned in a WindowsCentral article for Xbox Series X. Jez Corden, as I know him, only put out numbers if he has 2 or more vetted sources on this. I expect something similar for PS5.

Again this is a prediction, not a claim or a fact that it will play out this way! Just to be sure everybody understands! There is also nothing wrong to be wrong on any on this because it is speculation!

------------------

On a side note:


Kudos for putting out this clarification!
wait. No. Our bet was 12 tflops. I've gone up to 14 tflops for ps5 only since the oberon reveal but the bet between you and me was always 12 tlops for next gen.

I am too lazy to pull up posts but this is back when you wouldn't even go up to 10 rdna tflops.
 

modiz

Member
Oct 8, 2018
17,831

Expy

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,860
There's nothing special going on under the hood. You can run ray-tracing at a software level without the need for dedicated RT cores. Ray-Tracing has been implemented in other games I believe.
 

Jonnax

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,920
Looking at the YouTube comments (lol) of the digital foundry video on hellblade 2, there's a lot of comments say that Microsoft threatened to sue digital foundry about lying. Did that even happen lol?
 

Deleted member 20297

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
6,943
There's nothing special going on under the hood. You can run ray-tracing at a software level without the need for dedicated RT cores. Ray-Tracing has been implemented in other games I believe.
There was a ray tracing demo back then on the gba and even older consoles but these were usually seconds per frame, not the other way round.
If there is something special under the hood and whether this is only software, running on CPU or GPU, we will see, while the distinction is arbitrary.
 

Scently

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,464
https://twitter.com/digitalfoundry/status/1207617068977266688

That's absurd. They knew about the whole 4tf, 12tf plan earlier in the year. They were sure about it in their article.

Then they doubted it recently in their direct. Now suddenly they are sure again about 12tf ? Is is just for that kind of breaking news articles ? "rules are being rewritten" and such?
Its not so much that they doubted it from the beginning its more that when they initially got the info of 12TF everybody thought that it meant GCN but the advent of Navi threw that into doubt. The RX 5700XT, with 9.75TF was able to perform twice, and in some case better, as good as the 580 which is the PC card mostly a match for the gpu in the X1X. So most took the 12TF to mean twice the performance of the X1X and not necessarily exactly matching the raw TF count. Hence why they and pretty much everyone here concluded that the most we could get is ~10TF. The typical console size and the size/power draw of Navi cards also made everyone doubt we could get anywhere near 12TF.
So its not so absurd. A 12TF RDNA card is RTX 2080 Super territory and nobody thought we would be getting anything near that territory in a console. The unveil of the XSX, given its size relative to say the X1X, pretty much threw out all the doubt most have had about the possibility of getting 12TF, or more in the case of the PS5.
 

Manixramz

Member
Apr 4, 2018
335
It's just x, xbox x.
Later series s, xbox s.
Series just for the beginning so people know what they try to name it.

Power is x
Affordable is s
Maybe later in gen, series D for digital.

In my opinion.
 

Dictator

Digital Foundry
Verified
Oct 26, 2017
4,930
Berlin, 'SCHLAND
Killzone shadow fall uses ray tracing for certain reflection.
That was just a misnomer - it is standard SSR if you read their presentations.

The Wargaming update for that game does not add in the RT GI into the XBox Version as far as their patchnotes say:
capturerwkm4.png


In terms of non triangle ray tracing, we do have sign distance field ray tracing in a couple games, voxel cone tracing in like 2 maybe.
 

CarbonCrush

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,132
I'm starting to feel, slowly but surely, that the writing is on the wall in terms of XSX having the power crown.

This is just my personal thought on what I've been reading
 

Deleted member 12635

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
6,198
Germany
That was just a misnomer - it is standard SSR if you read their presentations.

The Wargaming update for that game does not add in the RT GI into the XBox Version as far as their patchnotes say:
capturerwkm4.png


In terms of non triangle ray tracing, we do have sign distance field ray tracing in a couple games, voxel cone tracing in like 2 maybe.
I wondered if this was a mistake. Thx for confirming it was!
 

Deleted member 12635

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
6,198
Germany
wait. No. Our bet was 12 tflops. I've gone up to 14 tflops for ps5 only since the oberon reveal but the bet between you and me was always 12 tlops for next gen.

I am too lazy to pull up posts but this is back when you wouldn't even go up to 10 rdna tflops.
I can use one avatar only anyway. If it is important to you, I am fine. But the main bet was with Xeontech anyway and we already signed off the avatar that I have to use in case I lose.
 

modiz

Member
Oct 8, 2018
17,831
That was just a misnomer - it is standard SSR if you read their presentations.

The Wargaming update for that game does not add in the RT GI into the XBox Version as far as their patchnotes say:
capturerwkm4.png


In terms of non triangle ray tracing, we do have sign distance field ray tracing in a couple games, voxel cone tracing in like 2 maybe.
Okay thanks for the correction.

what does claybook do? i am sure it uses some kind of software RT on consoles, the dev was talking about it on twitter
 

Dimajjio

Member
Oct 13, 2019
782
when they initially got the info of 12TF everybody thought that it meant GCN but the advent of Navi threw that into doubt.

Un momento. There is no concrete evidence either way. I'm still assuming 2x the GPU power of the Xbone One X means 12 GCN TF, so something like 9-10 Navi. And Microsoft don't seem to want to confirm or deny this from Richard's article.
 

AegonSnake

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
9,566
I can use one avatar only anyway. If it is important to you, I am fine. But the main bet was with Xeontech anyway and we already signed off the avatar that I have to use in case I lose.
Lol i don't care about the avatar bet. It was for fun anyway. Who cares whose predictions were right. They were only speculation.

Just wanted to set the record straight.
 

Scently

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,464
Un momento. There is no concrete evidence either way. I'm still assuming 2x the GPU power of the Xbone One X means 12 GCN TF, so something like 9-10 Navi. And Microsoft don't seem to want to confirm or deny this from Richard's article.
And that's fine that you don't believe given, as you say. no concrete evidence. But that's not the point I was making.
 

Deleted member 1589

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,576
I assume on the 12 teraflops number, Microsoft is probably saying

"Let us keep some megatons for our big Series X reveal damnit"
 

AegonSnake

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
9,566
Do you want to say you are not on record for 14TF? :p
No no. I'm still team 14 tflops for ps5. I was always 11-12 tflops for Scarlett though. I've maintained that ms would up clock their gou to close the gap.

Xenotech and i were both 12.9 tflops after the 1.8 ghz gonzalo leak. Oberon pushed us to 14.
 
That was just a misnomer - it is standard SSR if you read their presentations.

The Wargaming update for that game does not add in the RT GI into the XBox Version as far as their patchnotes say:
capturerwkm4.png


In terms of non triangle ray tracing, we do have sign distance field ray tracing in a couple games, voxel cone tracing in like 2 maybe.

WT is not a Wargaming game, it's done by Gaijin Entertainment.
 

Jrs3000

Member
Oct 26, 2017
293
USA
Un momento. There is no concrete evidence either way. I'm still assuming 2x the GPU power of the Xbone One X means 12 GCN TF, so something like 9-10 Navi. And Microsoft don't seem to want to confirm or deny this from Richard's article.

That's not how TF work 🤦🏾‍♂️. If they are using XBX 6tf as the metric and saying double that then it's 12Tf . Architecture don't matter. If they are talking about game performance doubles then It's a different measure as TF isn't useful for comparing that. For marketing and PR though for the masses it easier to say and use Tf to represent gpu power but it's not a good one for game performance as it just floating point calculation.
 

CosmicBolt

Self-Requested Ban
Member
Oct 28, 2017
884
No no. I'm still team 14 tflops for ps5. I was always 11-12 tflops for Scarlett though. I've maintained that ms would up clock their gou to close the gap.

Xenotech and i were both 12.9 tflops after the 1.8 ghz gonzalo leak. Oberon pushed us to 14.
I like your optimism. Count me in team 13TF for PS5.
 

Noble

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,680
I assume on the 12 teraflops number, Microsoft is probably saying

"Let us keep some megatons for our big Series X reveal damnit"
Also, insiders, press and Microsoft have been careful to say "aiming for 12TF" meaning if any competitor comes up with more they can tweak it to some extent and say "we were aiming for 12 but thanks to this tech we were able to push it to 12.x or 13"

Not saying there's that much of a margin, but there is a reason they haven't revealed exact numbers (one being they might not even be final)
 

Bosch

Banned
May 15, 2019
3,680
That's not how TF work 🤦🏾‍♂️. If they are using XBX 6tf as the metric and saying double that then it's 12Tf . Architecture don't matter. If they are talking about game performance doubles then It's a different measure as TF isn't useful for comparing that. For marketing and PR though for the masses it easier to say and use Tf to represent gpu power but it's not a good one for game performance as it just floating point calculation.
You are wrong my friend and he is right. That exactly how it works. Rdna is 30-35% more efficient than a gcn part. So 10 rdna tflops is 2x Xbox one x Power.
 
Jan 20, 2019
10,681
Then the theory about MS devkits being late because it's RDNA2 doesn't make sense if it's similar with Sony and they had devkits out earlier, we've also been told there are devkits out just not as much as PS5 anyways.

It is my thinking, that both companis had devkits out since early this year and they already had RDNA2 or at least, some parts of it.
 

klik

Banned
Apr 4, 2018
873
I wonder if Sony wanted to release PS5 in 2019 with RDNA 1 gpu but it got cancelled and delayed seeing Microsoft would use RDNA 2 in their next xbox. So they opted to go for RDNA 2 instead and 2020 release date
 
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