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Next-gen PS5 and next Xbox speculation launch thread |OT7| - nm
- Thread starter Mecha Meister
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Yeah... I would be shocked as fuck if it really is GCN numbers. Which Im not assuming it is.
Even a 2070 now is the about the price the next gen consoles will launch at, the value is insane (thanks to current nvidia prices).
do you really think devs quantify performance like that?
i mean do you think they would run benchmarks on pc to see if its really 2.0 or 2.6? maybe the programmers who are looking at all the extra threads and salvating, but most devs wouldnt care. 2x is a rough guesstimate which is what most people need to know.
Which if it was Navi wouldn't make much sense. 4TF Navi would match or exceed One X with the massive bump in CPU too. Right?
Something is getting confused. (Me).
Watched that Brad Sams video, and he says primarily, first party developers have it.
Doesnt that also mean studios like Ubisoft, EA, Square Enix probably has access to it too? The problem at hand is it's not available to most like the PS5 devkit is.
Doesnt that also mean studios like Ubisoft, EA, Square Enix probably has access to it too? The problem at hand is it's not available to most like the PS5 devkit is.
This isn't about the GPU architecture being used, we know it's Navi for both. It's about how you communicate things like the TF number. Albert Penello himself said that this is an issue, and that one way to deal with it could be to adjust numbers relative to Gen 8:
That would certainly be the best case, because then the leaks would hint at 12 RDNA TFLOPS.
Yes, that was said yesterday by jason and a couple of days (or weeks) ago by Matt. Basically MS was a little behind in devkit distribution and lacking on comunication.
Yes, the most telling thing here is that devs directly compared it to PS4 Pro when the logical comparison would have been the One X.
Wait so this 12+ 'target' could end up being 9-10 Navi TF?
Didn't Schreier report that "When speaking to Kotaku, one game developer briefed on Lockhart analogized it to the PlayStation 4 Pro in terms of raw graphical power "
4TF GCN would fit the bill.
with those old Sony wanted to release the PS5 in 2019 but decided to push it back to get BC among others things correctly makes me think Sony has been steadily more ahead when it came to devkit handouts as they've been working on this longer
correct me if I am wrong but I believe the PS4 had similar ahead of schedule development to the Xbox One as well
I am guessing MS has no issues here like how they didn't for the Xbox One third party support
I guess so.
Also I think there's a possibility the RDNA improvements is packed into this paragraph;
edit: ok new silicon architecture is RDNA.
Agreed.
I think in the game of telephone, where people may have been whispering things to Brad Sams, and sharing relative improvements over last consoles, the people involved may have looked at just the headline numbers without care for what a RDNA flop was vs a GCN flop.
I think the original numbers were 12 and 4, that being RDNA flops, and then some people in the chain telling things to Sams abstracted that to '2x X1X', '4x X1S'. Don't expect everyone to be as super precise as people here might be ;)
One other thing Sams did mention - again? - in this vid is that from what he heard devs had been typically targeting Lockhart and then scaling up to Anaconda rather than the other way around. The suggestion was that this was what helped initially 'kill' the idea - but he's not sure as yet if anything has changed there in its revival.
Well yeah but he also said - like DukeBlueBall pointed out - that we could get near 2080 perfomance levels and you're not going to get that with 12 TF GCN.
Klee also said both consoles would be getting more powerful GPU's then the current NAVI cards.
Makes no sense to me but we'll see.
It makes zero sense to provide developers a GCN tf number for an RDNA part.
The reason Xbox was the butt of jokes at the beginning of the gen was not only was the Xbox One weaker, it was also $100 more expensive and came with mandatory Kinect. It also had some silly and badly messaged ideas when it was officially announced, and all of these things (plus some others) are what hurt the brand early in the gen.
So the isolating factor wasn't just that they were weaker, it was the car crash pileup of a whole bunch of factors that caused them to shoot themselves in the foot. By comparison, Sony had their messaging and market positioning clearly defined and were also relentlessly on-message this entire gen.
Whether you look at this forum, twitch chats, Youtube comments or other gaming sites, its important to always remember that all of that data is not only anecdotal but also a lot of it is passed down information from the people who truly push new tech out through word of mouth: early adopters.
Whether or not the new Xbox is weaker or not to the new PlayStation will largely be inconsequential to the greater market as long as there is no giant gap. Microsoft (and Sony) have to nail their messaging more than anything else, and the only way power matters as a massive differentiation happens is in the following scenario (which we will say Sony > Microsoft in terms of power just for the sake of example):
- Microsoft decides their brand messaging for new Xbox is "the world's most powerful console" and rolls that out
- Sony's counter-marketing proves that to be false
- Microsoft (in this example) ends up with egg on their face.
You can replace the above with just about any marketing talking point, from game streaming to SSD tech to whatever else, and it would all be a similar example, showing that power is not a unique super selling point in the industry.
If Microsoft does not lead with "the world's most powerful console" their messaging will be focused on other talking points, and thus Sony (in this example) will be the ones saying "the world's most powerful console" and that becomes one of their talking points. It cannot ever be the ONLY talking point though, and both companies will need to come out guns blazing with all of their messaging in order to have an impact.
Another example: Google Stadia bragged and bragged about how much more powerful they were than the modern consoles when they were doing their PR, and no one gave a shit because the rest of the message was so bad.
Source: I work in Marketing, most notably in Community Development, Management and Product Marketing.
Wouldnt it better if you try to explain the situation and get into the discussion than typing like a 12 year old fanboy.
It seems like this is a possibility. I just hope that when we get official specs, both companies will be clear about what kind of TFLOPS they are using.
Of course it's RDNA. That's not what's being discussed here. The confusion is about the type of TFLOPS in their messaging. Are they RDNA TFLOPS? Or have they converted RDNA TFLOPS to GCN TFLOPS to make it more easily understandable for the average consumer, like Albert Penello suggested as a possible way of dealing with different degrees of efficiency when it comes to TFLOPS from different GPU architectures.
Why would the target specs be based on GCN, it doesn't make sense. IMO it's 12TF RDNA 2.
Maybe RDNA 2 is a much efficient architecture, that would explain why we are seeing such high TF number in next gen consoles.
Maybe RDNA 2 is a much efficient architecture, that would explain why we are seeing such high TF number in next gen consoles.
what are we grieving? who is this directed to? who is grieving?
more importantly, why would we be grieving after getting a 12 tflops console? this is all we have dreamed about. whats the point of this post?
It seems a foolish thing to try to do in this day and age. It can only end badly IMO...
I'm now curious what prompted Tom to wonder himself how Sony and Microsoft will measure performance. He knows something!
That line has come back to hunt them in some ways and there marketing already was bad .
Nobody is getting TF figures in GCN units for Navi GPUs. This is silly. It's 4 RDNA TFLOPs.
Journalists who report 2x X1X or about the same as PS4 Pro are not taking architecture into consideration.
These numbers were provided to developers in XDK documentation. Why on Earth would MS provide some sort of converted, estimated tf number for an architecture that the part is not. It makes no sense folks. Those tf numbers are RDNA numbers because the GPU in the device is an rdna part.
What's interesting in the Brad Sams video is he talking about MS not giving most of the devkits yet. Do think that should be cleared up. I would say the simplest explanation is they might have the same trouble like Sony where they need those devkit cases with vents because it runs hot.
if the recent 12TF figure did come from developers, then yea we can throw that away, this only works under the assumption that these verge and WC leaks (kotaku's article did come from developers which i will explain below why is that important) comes directly from MS and that it is a part of the marketing cycle, need to remember that the late 2018/ early 2019 leaks were also leaks from MS internally that seems to have been used as a tool to test market reaction.
then there is of course the matter of comparing to jason's article, which didnt mention TFlops but mentioned that lcokhart's GPU is pretty much on par with a PS4 Pro, which would make more sense if the reported 4TF by verge was actually GCN, as this is something told from developers.
then we have the first reddit leak from february that also said 12TF and 4TF, back when devs have most likely receievd only GCN performance targets yet as navi has yet to have been revealed and was still in development.
I hope i am wrong about this, and honestly i was arguing with someone else earlier about it and thought it was RDNA even after seeing all the evidence i pointed out, what that changed my mind was the video from brad sams.
We have to consider, that these might be very well RDNA 2.0 TFLOPS, so in the end it could be much faster than what we are thinking right now.
Little Reminder: RDNA has an middle advantage of + 1 % compared to Turing!!! This is what Is insane.
(To clear this up: In some Games, Turing is 10-20 % faster than RDNA, in others, RDNA is 10-20% faster than Turing, so an overall advantage of 1% compared to Turing, remember I am comparing the Architectures, no GPUs or Cards ;) )
Source: https://www.computerbase.de/2019-07/radeon-rx-5700-xt-test/4/
Little Reminder: RDNA has an middle advantage of + 1 % compared to Turing!!! This is what Is insane.
(To clear this up: In some Games, Turing is 10-20 % faster than RDNA, in others, RDNA is 10-20% faster than Turing, so an overall advantage of 1% compared to Turing, remember I am comparing the Architectures, no GPUs or Cards ;) )
Source: https://www.computerbase.de/2019-07/radeon-rx-5700-xt-test/4/
You know what target is ? 11 tflops is 8% less is around target.
They targeted 3.5ghz on xbox360 cpu and ended at 3.2ghz 10% lower so around target
Matt said that MS is not behind schedule, it's sony that is far ahead on the process which is unusual.
The simplest explanation is they have a different timescale to Sony and are bang on plan 🤷♂️.
Any devs able to chip in on when devkits have shipped in previous generations?
Yes, but what Brad says also has a ring of truth in it. Most dont have much of anything, and most are working off spec sheets.
edit: Brad has also put out a youtube video talking about Scarlett's teraflops that should clear it up.
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