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Next-gen PS5 and next Xbox speculation launch thread |OT7| - nm
- Thread starter Mecha Meister
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I think this is a reasonable expectation, and is >10TF so we are all gravy.
As much as I would love to see 56CUs and 2.0Ghz I think that is way too much for a SOC. I think the 2.0Ghz Oberon is for dev kits, which will be a bit faster and have more RAM.
My prediction for PS5:
APU ~360mm2
3.2Ghz 8C/16T Zen 2 16MB cache (7C/14T available to developers)
1.8Ghz 44CU (48CU and 4 disabled) Navi+ with some modifications and RT ~10.14TF
RAM
16GB GDDR6
8GB LPDDR4
Treated as one combined 24GB pool with Zen 2 controller, 4-6GB reserved for OS + swapfile
IO
1TB custom SSD with hardware decompression as per Sony patent
Empty 2.5" HD bay for people to add in their own storage for game back-up, can't run games off it though - need to be loaded into SSD
4K Blu-Ray drive (100GB discs)
Misc and price
Cooling by dual sided vapour chambers like the other Sony patent so quieter than the Pro
External power brick
Dual Shock 5 with better battery life, better speaker along with haptic rumble and triggers which will be a big focus
$499 with Sony taking a ~$100 loss per unit
This now goes without saying IMO. With hardware ray tracing, the intersection engines are built into the TMUs, which means no part exists yet that is directly comparable.
That's also true :)
Because that's super depressing :D
(Even though it's more powerful than Vega 56 and maybe even Vega 64 which 6 months ago would have sounded really great)
:)
You mean more realistic? ;)
40CU with 4 disabled at 1.7-1.8 GHz sounds like a very realistic scenario to me.
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Reality is depressing :)
But yeah, from the very limited Navi GPU offering we actually know about right now, 36CU at around 1.7Ghz is the most realistic option. 8TF Saturday!
Exactly :)
Btw,i don't doubt that Prospero dev kit runs at 2GHz but we are not gonna get that in mass market PS5.
No if we look at gonzalo score 20k+ firestrike with 3.2ghz zen2 it must be >8.7tf navi. If I didn't know the score then yes, it would be option. But happy that we back to 7tf range :d
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But it isn't more realistic. The PS4, the Pro, and the XOne X had more CUs on the die than their most comparable PC parts.
And you have to ignore both that there's still no AMD GPU with RT hardware yet for you to compare it to, and every single leak and hint, especially from the more reliable sources like Kleegamefan .
Actually, it's not just not the more realistic option, it's straight up bullshit.
Yes. Scorpio is essentially the highest CU Polaris GPU in existence.
Indeed. And 7870 had 1GHZ clock comparing to 800MHz in PS4.
If you are loading only a few big files, yes. 2 thousand small files, nope.
Also for all those talks about high speed. Yeah, sequential read/write speed is great, but I wonder about smaller files indeed. Also, heat dissipation to maintain those speeds.
hah scarcely
I think if I was in the "realism" camp here on ResetEra I would be firmly looking at this from a couple angles.
1. Thermals and power consumption (how much power have consoles historically used in total?)
2. Manufacturing costs and using as much produced material as possible (how much is the bom usually in total for successful consoles like the PS4?)
3. The cost of the console (how much can the consumer spend? 499 USD was apparently a deathknell for X1)
4. History regarding where console GPUs tend to be regarding the midrange cards (7850ish?)
There is also that interesting thing about "elegance" that Mark Cerny once talked about regarding the PS4Pro's butterfly design. Turning off CUs to maintain back compat to match that OG PS4. Interestingly, 36 CUs would of modern RDNA would also follow that butterfly concept.
Just some food for thought, but I personally find the realism angle of 36 CUs nothing too terrible, the machine would still be rocking.
Working with lots of small files also noticeably strains the central CPU. In Sony patents there is mention of small SSD-mounted CPU module that will offload file transfer work from the main CPU.
Current RT cards aren't really strong enough to efficiently run RT. By the time RT performance is up to snuff, your card will be eclipsed by 1050ti tier cards.
100gb disks have nothing to do with the drive. The drive just reads the format and format isn't tied to disk size. No need for small games to release on 100Gb disks if a 50Gb disk is enough. Im sure games will still release on traditional blu ray disks as well.
If you have a dual sided VC, you likely need dual fans. On top of that, for proper VC implementation, the fan needs to be blowing across the plane and not top down. The one thing that AMD did right with NAVI cooling is the blower fan pushing air across the flat surface of the VC.
Don't you think that the PS4 BOM was very low compared to past consoles? Historically new console BOM was at least 100$ more than the console's MSRP (and if you adjust to 2019, the BOM was usually close to 200$ over the MSRP) until we got to this current generation were both consoles had lower BOM than their MSRP.
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Agree with all but not with butterfly design as navi cu's are not polaris cu's so matching amount it's not enough.
1. This is arguably the room for the most growth or improvement in the consoles. The power consumption and thermal management of the X1S to the X1X is a large leap.
2. This will be relatively flat overall, I think. Lower RAM costs should be offset by higher non-volatile memory costs. Sony may have a willingness to increase MSRP and/or increase loss due to the strength of digital sales buoying any hardware losses in a way that's unprecedented in the console space. Looking at the console business as a function of PSN revenue is paradigm-shifting.
3. There is a decent chance the MSRP will be rising. MS has shown a level of comfort with the $499 MSRP. Attributing X1's early struggles to its pricepoint is very narrow-focus and misses the contribution of backlash against bundled Kinect, underpowered GPU, focus on TV/sports, and their attempt to kill the used game and disc markets.
4. This is misleading because the max TDP of GPUs has ballooned over time in a way consoles couldn't keep up. The OG Xbox had an unequaled GPU even compared to PC, and present day consoles can't hope to compete with >250W enthusiast solutions (with similarly ballooning MSRPs). It's much better to focus on it as a function of die-size and power consumption - not its placement in the desktop landscape.
4. Does it? I don't see much difference since 2013. And it's better to compare to current consoles not some prehistoric times.
Pretty much any GPU starting with something like NV40 will follow that "butterfly concept".
It is more instructive to look at die size over time. This necessarily drives costs.
Yes. They'll want to be symmetric around some common core logic and/or cache to minimize route distances.
If you remove from this chart nvidia crazy cards like tesla v100 you will see that nothing change much since 2013. Nvidia has now bigger die's than ever because of still using 12nm and rt and tensor cores.It is more instructive to look at die size over time. This necessarily drives costs.
I don't think Sony has ever used an external power brick. Maye one of their slim models and even hat I am not sure. Just not their thing. And I don't see them putting in a SATA 2.5 bay/slot/connector so users can "add in more storage". An extra USB port will cost significantly less and accomplish the same thing.
So between 7.8TF -8.2TF GPU.
No, that is not going to happen.
Only issue with this is that you seem to e forgetting that MS made an XB1X that had 44Cu with 4 disabled. I expect that the worst-case scenario we see is the same thing this gen. Either a 4CU GPU with 4 disabled or a 48CU GPU with 4 disabled. I don't see how sony settles for another 40CU(36CU active) set u knowing fully well that MS will most definitely at the er least push for another 44CU(40CU active) set up. I just don't see it happening.
As helpful as comparing last gen can be, it never quite yields a bullet-proof idea of what is coming in the next console.
Just by themselves, hardware ray-tracing and the SSD feel like two choices the design philosophy behind the PS4 would not have opted for.
Just by themselves, hardware ray-tracing and the SSD feel like two choices the design philosophy behind the PS4 would not have opted for.
You do realize a 40 CU machine running at 2 ghz will beat a 60 Cu machine at 1.6ghz. Thanks to things like Pixel fill rate.
We''ll have to wait and see if the butterfly design is a thing with the PS5 APU but in the first Wired article it did say it (the APU) will be based in part on the PS4 architecture. How practically could this be if Navi/Polaris aren't somewhat compatible?
It was confirmed via the official Brazilian patent for it, then a developer effectively confirmed it and then deleted the tweet.
The recent leaked pic hasn't been 100% confirmed as real, but there's enough to suspect it could be an actual pic.
No it wouldn't probably. If we talk about pixel fill rate it depands of clock and rops number and probably 60cu's soc would have it more. But even if it's not a case (xox has it less than ps4 pro) nextgen soc's will have no less than 64rops (rx5700) and even xox with 32 rops doesn't seem to be fill rate limited so I woulnd't care so much about fill rate.
Edit: Question is does amd improved performance scaling on bigger cores.
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Wasn't it leaked earlier this year that some Navi features are a regression from their Vega counterparts? That would fit with Sony's comparability goals. I'll have a hunt for the rumours later.
Yes, generally if you selectively remove data that doesn't support your conclusion, the resulting data will support your conclusion.
If you consider tesla v100 as a typical gpu then... whatever ;)
I don't remember that TBH. I'm actually quite interested to see how how they go about incorporating Navi/Polaris/GCN all in one chip. It is what Semi-Custom is for though, I guess.
I don't even know why the whole butterfly thing is coming into the mix. This is not them going from a PS4 to a PS4 pro where compatibility is a primary driver. This is a new-gen we are talking about. While BC will be important the system will not be built primarily around it but rather a new system built and adapted to work with BC.
Rather than look at the last-gen as a point for point blueprint of what next-gen will bring, we should instead be looking at it as how far they would be willing to push things. Eg, 360m2 APUs, Vapor chamber, GDDR6, some form of DDR4...etc. We shouldn't be looking at chip architectural decisions from last-gen and somehow trying to carry those into next-gen.
For the most part, the best o last gen (XB1X) should be the least we can expect the next-gen to be. If for nothing else, MS wouldn't dial back anything they had accomplished from XB1X while making their new-gen console. Maybe with the exception of the mem bus size. And this is something sony ould know too.
I will sooner believe we will have 40-44CU active GPUs running at as low as 1.7Ghz or even 1.6Ghz than us having a 36CU GPU.
Video game companies hate it when you do this, but they can't stop you...
The trend is there even if you focus only on gaming cards, and it's even worse when you factor in $/mm^2.
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