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What do you think could be the memory setup of your preferred console, or one of the new consoles?

  • GDDR6

    Votes: 566 41.0%
  • GDDR6 + DDR4

    Votes: 540 39.2%
  • HBM2

    Votes: 53 3.8%
  • HBM2 + DDR4

    Votes: 220 16.0%

  • Total voters
    1,379
Status
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Dokkaebi G0SU

Member
Nov 2, 2017
5,922
I agree with everything you say here except the last part, if I'm being pedantic. Too many people are using the word "know" when they mean "rumored" or "likely". The only thing we *know* is what MS and Sony have said specifically, and TBH we basically *know* the same things about both consoles.

We don't *know* that Sony has HW RT, because they haven't said it. We don't *know* Sony is using GDDR6, because they haven't said it (I don't think). So we do know a very little bit more about Scarlett then we know about the PS5. However, I would agree that both of those assumptions are pretty good ones, and are therefore likely.

I've said this before, so perhaps worth repeating, but you absolutely cannot determine the price of these consoles based on the specs that have been announced. The SOC is the single biggest BOM cost in a console. However storage type, storage size (esp. with SSD) and amount and type of memory are equally expensive. And the CU count (and by extension the overall size of the silicon) has cost at the system level in terms of cooling, and copper is expensive these days too, so the ultimate silicon area has cost implications in a bunch of different places.

So there is still a ton of variability, beyond TFLOPS, that could affect the price of each of these consoles. You could envision scenarios that are plausible at $299, $399, and $499 that would all allow the existing known claims to be true. You can certainly say some of these scenarios are a stretch, no pricepoint is out of the question based on what's been publicly said IMO.

BTW – it's totally plausible that PS5 is more powerful, and people are right to say that is an option based on what we know, and we should hold equal weight to these rumors. I'm not of fan of the Ad Homenim arguments against people who are posting what they are hearing, although that's an emotionally charged issue (as I well know even with my own post history)

So there are many other variables in this equation beyond raw power. Sony could have more TFLOPS, but less memory and less storage. MS could choose the opposite direction. What I think we should all be able to agree on (and if we can't I'm happy to explain why), is that if both consoles have the exact same feature-set, the prices will be very similar. Otherwise, the price will be different, or there will be difference in some other part of the console OR one company is willing to take a huge loss.
So you think Ms will have more storage and memory? I'm guessing it's because of the ability to leverage gamepass on the system to be something more instant between installed games? And maybe they project users will install a lot more games on their console because of their push for gamepass?
I'm wrong huh
 

DukeBlueBall

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
9,059
Seattle, WA
Basides
Oh that's a great question! I'm ONLY speculating here. I think c) is probably out of the question unless they get really clear right now. Probably late to scale back.

Generally, when dealing with currency fluctuations, it's imbedded into the BOM and there are economists in the company that help smooth that out. So currency fluctuations are a combination of a) and b).

If some massive tariffs are passed - like massive - then I would expect it would be a) and the consoles would just get more expensive. This is sort of what happens in countries like Brazil with high duties on imported goods.

But please don't quote me on that - it's super speculative and there are a TON of "it depends". I'm sure both companies are thinking hard about this now.


Thanks for the write up.
Maybe Lockhart would actually be a necessity in the cast of high tariffs.
A $299 console moving to a $399 console is less outrageous than a $499 console moving to $649.
 

BitsandBytes

Member
Dec 16, 2017
4,576
Hi Albert, what do you think the console manufacturers would do in the case of tariffs?

Do they
a) pass the cost unto consumers,
b) swallow the cost
c) scale back the hardware

I think I read in the new Switch thread that Nintendo (have?) moved production to Taiwan to avoid the tariffs? Not sure if that is true or whether it would be an option for Microsoft or Sony.
 

Deleted member 19767

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,098
So you think Ms will have more storage and memory? I'm guessing it's because of the ability to leverage gamepass on the system to be something more instant between installed games? And maybe they project users will install a lot more games on their console because of their push for gamepass?
I'm wrong huh

It's a hypothetical. He's not saying that he thinks MS are doing anything
 

Albert Penello

Verified
Nov 2, 2017
320
Redmond, WA
So you think Ms will have more storage and memory? I'm guessing it's because of the ability to leverage gamepass on the system to be something more instant between installed games? And maybe they project users will install a lot more games on their console because of their push for gamepass?
I'm wrong huh

I don't know. What I can say is that when you're talking about storge, there is a huge difference in cost between the various levels of storage you can get with SSD. For an HDD, the difference in price between 1tb, 2tb, etc. isn't nearly as big today. In fact, it's a lot more like the early PS360 days when storage sizes were really different and really expensive.

So playing with storage size will play a bigger role in the BOM then it has in the past generation.
 

Heckler456

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
5,256
Belgium
Guys what's ur status in 2020?

2020.seems like a weird stacked year with most of games getting patched for next gen to use the additional power ?

What to do ? Wait and play them at the end of year on next gen consoles or just play them on inferior machines ?

Fuck like what do I do with:
last of us part 2 ?
Or final fantasy remake 7?
or cyberpunk ??
PS4 or ps5? I m geniunely confused and it's such a fucking stacked year lol
All three of those games are games I'd like to replay anyway, at some point or another. Having the extra incentive of "hey, it'll look better too!" means I don't feel too bad playing it on lower spec machines first.
 

DukeBlueBall

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
9,059
Seattle, WA
For Ariel = PS5, the only source for that seems to be Komachi.

AMD Gonzalo / Ariel is most definitely a console APU going by the name ZG16702AE8JB2_32/10/18_13F8.
It's unlikely to be Lockhart, as 40CUs at 1.8ghz is too high.
It might be Anaconda, but then what is Arden?
It's unlikely to be an APU for desktop / laptop since the naming is different.
It's probably something like the Subor Z.
 

Dokkaebi G0SU

Member
Nov 2, 2017
5,922
It's a hypothetical. He's not saying that he thinks MS are doing anything
Yeah, sorry if I sounded like I was assuming he meant that. It was more of me guessing a possible reason why Ms may have more storage than we anticipate. Kind of building off that idea and running with a possibility.



I don't know. What I can say is that when you're talking about storge, there is a huge difference in cost between the various levels of storage you can get with SSD. For an HDD, the difference in price between 1tb, 2tb, etc. isn't nearly as big today. In fact, it's a lot more like the early PS360 days when storage sizes were really different and really expensive.

So playing with storage size will play a bigger role in the BOM then it has in the past generation.
Thanks for the reply.
Hopefully I can plug and play my current external drive to Scarlett with my Xbox one games without having to install again
 

Lorul2

Member
Jan 4, 2018
768
I don't know. What I can say is that when you're talking about storge, there is a huge difference in cost between the various levels of storage you can get with SSD. For an HDD, the difference in price between 1tb, 2tb, etc. isn't nearly as big today. In fact, it's a lot more like the early PS360 days when storage sizes were really different and really expensive.

So playing with storage size will play a bigger role in the BOM then it has in the past generation.


Hello Albert:

I desperately want to ask you your opinion about Xbox Management's view on 2nd/3rd Party AAA Exclusives? Does Xbox still believe in "AGREEMENTS" like Ninja Gaiden, JSRF, GEARS OF WAR 1, JADE Empire, Mass Effect 1, TitanFall, Sunset Overdrive? Will we ever see Xbox have Exclusives like that again? I really want to ask you... However, I want to be respectful and I know you no longer work there so you shouldn't answer for them anymore...

I totally understand if you do not want to reply...

Even though I really want to know...

and it makes me SAD not to know....


BUT I AM SILL AN XBOX FAN THROUGH AND THROUGH!!

who wants to know.. PLEASE!!
 
Feb 10, 2018
17,534
I guess it's that you're basically saying they should throw away a lot of money. A lot. It would be an incredibly weird thing to do, especially after the idea that they want everything on everything if possible. It only serves to make them look petty.

Using that logic, MS are throwing away a lot of money by not putting all there xbox studios games on ps5.
 

Albert Penello

Verified
Nov 2, 2017
320
Redmond, WA
I'm not Albert, but China isn't the only country that can manufacture consoles, my launch PS4 was made in Japan for example.

Excellent point. Would require a pretty huge CAPEX investment, but given MS and Sony produce a lot in China, could payoff vs. the loss of share. Also big question in how long the administration stays in place. This is a super interesting area.
 

Deleted member 40133

User requested account closure
Banned
Feb 19, 2018
6,095
For Ariel = PS5, the only source for that seems to be Komachi.

AMD Gonzalo / Ariel is most definitely a console APU going by the name ZG16702AE8JB2_32/10/18_13F8.
It's unlikely to be Lockhart, as 40CUs at 1.8ghz is too high.
It might be Anaconda, but then what is Arden?
It's unlikely to be an APU for desktop / laptop since the naming is different.
It's probably something like the Subor Z.

I'm pretty sure it was confirmed to not be subor z. So we know that Arden is Xbox, argalus is ms cloud....only thing left is ps5
 

vivftp

Member
Oct 29, 2017
19,744
Ok, after all the random acquisition talk lately I've got it! I've finally figured out who Sony needs to buy to ensure success for next gen and beyond! Sony doesn't need Insomniac, Square, Take Two or any of those companies, they need to aim higher and acquire... AMD!

DO IT SONY!!!

;)
 

Dave.

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,138
We don't *know* that Sony has HW RT, because they haven't said it. ... So we do know a very little bit more about Scarlett then we know about the PS5. However, I would agree that both of those assumptions are pretty good ones, and are therefore likely.

Would you care to estimate the percentage chance of this likelyhood?

In your opinion, what percent of the time does Mark Cerny say something like "See that Nvidia RTX? The new one that does realtime raytracing? Well with the new Navi GPU in our next generation PlayStation can also do raytracing" - and actually mean "We have a general purpose GPU capable of running arbitrary shaders for compute, same as the PS4 and Xbox One." ?

In your previous role as Xbox Marketing Lead, if a junior suggested such a "well technically it's true!" wording strategy for a headline reveal event, would you give it the Albert Panello seal of approval and get straight to recording the soundbites?

Would you also not consider Crytek's use of a Vega 56 for realtime reflections "hardware acceleration"? Is not everything a modern GPU does some form of "hardware acceleration"?
 

Andromeda

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,844
For Ariel = PS5, the only source for that seems to be Komachi.

AMD Gonzalo / Ariel is most definitely a console APU going by the name ZG16702AE8JB2_32/10/18_13F8.
It's unlikely to be Lockhart, as 40CUs at 1.8ghz is too high.
It might be Anaconda, but then what is Arden?
It's unlikely to be an APU for desktop / laptop since the naming is different.
It's probably something like the Subor Z.
No, that's incorrect. It only means it's a gaming APU.
 
Feb 10, 2018
17,534
Minecraft is one of the biggest games in gaming history. It made sense to put it on everything. Taking it away from Sony players would just be plain bad business.

I don't know about that, it would undoubtedly sell more Xbox's and Xbox services.
You know kind of the whole point in exclusives.
I understand why they continued support for minecraft on PS4 because there was already millions of minecraft customers on that platform.
Also people will be able to play PS4 minecraft via BC, but if they intend to upgrade minecraft for next gen imo it makes sense for it to be a PC/XCLOUD/SCARLETT exclusive.
 

N.Domixis

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
9,208
I don't know about that, it would undoubtedly sell more Xbox's and Xbox services.
You know kind of the whole point in exclusives.
I understand why they continued support for minecraft on PS4 because there was already millions of minecraft customers on that platform.
Also people will be able to play PS4 minecraft via BC, but if they intend to upgrade minecraft for next gen imo it makes sense for it to be a PC/XCLOUD/SCARLETT exclusive.
So then why did they put Minecraft Dungeons? They didn't need to.
 

AegonSnake

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
9,566
Also, you're not only conveniently ignoring the 5700 or 5700 XT. But also previous facts. The fact that previous GPUs mentionned were both smaller and consumed less than the GPU you consider a stop gap and "too small for that SoC".
Not even close. I pointed out why they wont be going for a 350mm2 chip anymore. If they are going for a bigger chip, they are going for more CUs. If they are going for more CUs, they have already accounted for the tdp increases and added cooling solutions to account for it.

Previous facts are great, but if we go by previous facts then we have to assume that Sony would be going with a $399 350mm2 console. They are almost assuredly not.

If we go by previous facts, we would assume that MS would settle for a 350mm2 vapor cooled system. The estimates already prove that this is no longer the case and that MS was able to get an even bigger die for the same price.

If we go by pervious facts, Sony would settle for a 325mm2 APU like they did for the pro.

Another cool previous fact: the PS3 shipped with a 395w power supply and had games go over 200W during gameplay. PS4 topped out at 150w during gameplay. If Sony is going for $499, why cant they have another 200w console? The bluray drive wont be consuming any power because the games will all be installed on the SSD.

Things have changed. We have an SSD in next gen consoles. We are going to get hardware RT. two months ago, everyone thought this was crazy. two weeks ago, everyone though navi was GCN. lets not rely on previous facts too much. Lets wait and see what the next Navi GPUs can do because in all likelyhood next gen consoles are using those chips instead.
 

Yerffej

Prophet of Regret
Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,483
I don't know about that, it would undoubtedly sell more Xbox's and Xbox services.
You know kind of the whole point in exclusives.
I understand why they continued support for minecraft on PS4 because there was already millions of minecraft customers on that platform.
Also people will be able to play PS4 minecraft via BC, but if they intend to upgrade minecraft for next gen imo it makes sense for it to be a PC/XCLOUD/SCARLETT exclusive.
I don't know what to say except that it really doesn't make sense. It's literally choosing to lose money.
 
Oct 27, 2017
4,641
Guys what's ur status in 2020?

2020.seems like a weird stacked year with most of games getting patched for next gen to use the additional power ?

What to do ? Wait and play them at the end of year on next gen consoles or just play them on inferior machines ?

Fuck like what do I do with:
last of us part 2 ?
Or final fantasy remake 7?
or cyberpunk ??
PS4 or ps5? I m geniunely confused and it's such a fucking stacked year lol
My plan is Death Stranding, TLOU2, FFVII:R on launch. Gears on PC. Everything else waits for next-gen. There are gonna be so many great games between later this year and next-gen launch that I wouldn't really have to play them all anyways. So I figured I'll wait and enjoy them on a new console.
 
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bear force one

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
4,305
Orlando
Says the person who just posted the above baseless statements, why don't you practice what you preach and present some reasoning behind your accusations.
I've laid out my view clearly, People like you who accuse with no reasons or evidence are the ones shitting up this thread.
Baseless. Sure. It's clear you have zero interest in coming at the topic with intergity so join the others who are no longer seen.
 

Gamer17

Banned
Oct 30, 2017
9,399
So then PS5 getting Minecraft would also be win win.
Why r u guys arguing about Minecraft ? Is there any recent news about Minecraft being excluisves next gen ? That goes against everything MS said this e3.this e3 they said they will put their games as many places as they could to reach wider audience .beside Minecraft is under MS and not Xbox division .
 

Pheonix

Banned
Dec 14, 2018
5,990
St Kitts
No, people are just assuming matt means they have "specific RT hardware"

Stadia has RT hardware.
Vega56 has RT hardware?

Are people actually questioning Matt now?

This guy confirmed BC for PS5 last year.
I could have confirmed it for you in 2016 if you had asked me. Not saying I am "questioning" Matt... just saying confirming BC doesn' have as much weight.

So you think Ms will have more storage and memory? I'm guessing it's because of the ability to leverage gamepass on the system to be something more instant between installed games? And maybe they project users will install a lot more games on their console because of their push for gamepass?
I'm wrong huh
Haha... and that is how new rumors are born..... how could you read his detailed post and arrived at that conclusion?
 

Dokkaebi G0SU

Member
Nov 2, 2017
5,922
Vega56 has RT hardware?


I could have confirmed it for you in 2016 if you had asked me. Not saying I am "questioning" Matt... just saying confirming BC doesn' have as much weight.


Haha... and that is how new rumors are born..... how could you read his detailed post and arrived at that conclusion?
It's a hypothetical tangent for one reason why they may choose to have more storage than we anticipate. I'm not trying to confirm what he says as some insider information or anything, tf? Lolololol
He's guessing and I'm guessing why he may be guessing it would be that way. Guessing his guess. Holy shit you take shit too serious.
 

N.Domixis

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
9,208
Why r u guys arguing about Minecraft ? Is there any recent news about Minecraft being excluisves next gen ? That goes against everything MS said this e3.this e3 they said they will put their games as many places as they could to reach wider audience .beside Minecraft is under MS and not Xbox division .
Anthony wants or thinks MS would take away Minecraft support from PS5.
 

Gamer17

Banned
Oct 30, 2017
9,399
My plan is Death Stranding, TLOU2, FFVII:R on launch. Gears on PC. Everything else waits for next-gen. There are gonna be so many great games between the end of this year and next gen launch that I wouldn't really have tome to play them all anyways. So I figured I'll wait and enjoy them on a new console anyways.
Sounds like a good plan actually I LL do the same .ff7r is the only one I might wait for next gen but lou2 or DS I LL play on pro
 

Chamber

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,279
Guys what's ur status in 2020?

2020.seems like a weird stacked year with most of games getting patched for next gen to use the additional power ?

What to do ? Wait and play them at the end of year on next gen consoles or just play them on inferior machines ?

Fuck like what do I do with:
last of us part 2 ?
Or final fantasy remake 7?
or cyberpunk ??
PS4 or ps5? I m geniunely confused and it's such a fucking stacked year lol
Play everything day 1, no way I'm waiting. I think Cyberpunk is going to be a shitshow on current consoles but I'd also be shocked if it really does release in April. 🤷‍♂️
 

Albert Penello

Verified
Nov 2, 2017
320
Redmond, WA
Would you care to estimate the percentage chance of this likelyhood?

In your opinion, what percent of the time does Mark Cerny say something like "See that Nvidia RTX? The new one that does realtime raytracing? Well with the new Navi GPU in our next generation PlayStation can also do raytracing" - and actually mean "We have a general purpose GPU capable of running arbitrary shaders for compute, same as the PS4 and Xbox One." ?

In your previous role as Xbox Marketing Lead, if a junior suggested such a "well technically it's true!" wording strategy for a headline reveal event, would you give it the Albert Panello seal of approval and get straight to recording the soundbites?

Would you also not consider Crytek's use of a Vega 56 for realtime reflections "hardware acceleration"? Is not everything a modern GPU does some form of "hardware acceleration"?

Notwithstanding the aggressive wording in your question, I would answer this way:

Cerny, more than anyone who is posting in this thread or anyone who speaks publicly about consoles in the industry, knows well the difference between hardware accelerated ray-tracing, and software ray-tracing. As the architect of the system, he would know himself precisely the amount of area and type of hardware accelerated Ray Tracing they support. So I found the *absence* of clarity on this point, particularly coming from him directly, to be extremely telling. Or to put it bluntly: Cerny chose not to be clear on this point and he would know the answer first hand.

Unlike, say, a "junior" (your term) on a marketing team who may not really understand those technical differences and thinks that "ray tracing" is just a buzzword so unintentionally puts it in a headline without the intent to be misleading.

Seems to me that, like 4K before it, both companies will claim they have "Ray Tracing" whether it's supported in silicon or not.

For better or worse, the Scarlett video was clear on this point. Cerny was not. Therefore, if we're being honest we do not know if Sony's implementation is HW accelerated or not.

Lastly, the very next sentence I say that I personally think it's likely they have it.
 

PianoBlack

Member
May 24, 2018
6,628
United States
Why r u guys arguing about Minecraft ? Is there any recent news about Minecraft being excluisves next gen ? That goes against everything MS said this e3.this e3 they said they will put their games as many places as they could to reach wider audience .beside Minecraft is under MS and not Xbox division .

Minecraft (Helen Chiang) absolutely reports to Xbox (Phil Spencer). He calls her out with the other studio heads in various interviews.

Edit: of course your larger point is correct, they will put Minecraft everywhere.
 
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bear force one

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
4,305
Orlando
Notwithstanding the aggressive wording in your question, I would answer this way:

Cerny, more than anyone who is posting in this thread or anyone who speaks publicly about consoles in the industry, knows well the difference between hardware accelerated ray-tracing, and software ray-tracing. As the architect of the system, he would know himself precisely the amount of area and type of hardware accelerated Ray Tracing they support. So I found the *absence* of clarity on this point, particularly coming from him directly, to be extremely telling. Or to put it bluntly: Cerny chose not to be clear on this point and he would know the answer first hand.

Unlike, say, a "junior" (your term) on a marketing team who may not really understand those technical differences and thinks that "ray tracing" is just a buzzword so unintentionally puts it in a headline without the intent to be misleading.

Seems to me that, like 4K before it, both companies will claim they have "Ray Tracing" whether it's supported in silicon or not.

For better or worse, the Scarlett video was clear on this point. Cerny was not. Therefore, if we're being honest we do not know if Sony's implementation is HW accelerated or not.

Lastly, the very next sentence I say that I personally think it's likely they have it.
Matt already confirmed it's a hardware solution.

This point needs to drop already.
 

M.Bluth

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,240
The Gonzalo/Ariel link to the PS5 was always a "maybe" at best. I don't remember Komachi being as sure about it as we think about it now.
As for the die size... I'm pretty sure that 320mm2-ish figure in the pastebin (seriously, we're still doing those? sigh) is straight up just adding the RX5700 die size (251) with the speculated ~70mm2 that an 8-core Zen2 CPU would occupy. That's it, there's nothing more to it. Which is a problem.
Because I'm pretty sure no next gen console APU would be that straightforward. 40CUs is the absolute minimum that'll be in, disabled CUs not being accounted for, and did we forget about the RT hardware? Where is that going, or do you seriously think they'll lock even more CUs for that?

Here's the thing. Considering the estimates of Scarlett's die size being 380mm2 or likely bigger, and I have no reason to think that render MS showed is so misleading because they were faithful for the X's video, maybe it's time we seriously consider that these consoles will have rather large SOCs.

And before you try to come up with reasons to say how this not economically feasible or that it's not possible because of heat or power consumption, consider this...
We've spent literally tens of thousands of posts being told pretty confidently the following:
- You will be lucky if you've got machines capable of 8 or 10 GCN TFLOPS
- SSDs are a pipe dream.
- There's zero chance consoles will have ray-tracing.
You've been wrong on all counts. Hell, I believed two of those three points. But we're wrong. So... Maybe it's about time we consider that these machines will not be designed in the same way the previous gen's consoles were made. Crazy idea, huh?

I wonder when Mojang will be getting PS5 Dev kits, if there's a next gen version with possible ray tracing? Minecraft is an important game for PS5.
If Phil was smart, he would make the next version of minecraft only on MS + Nintendo platforms.
I'm sure Phil Spencer would love to answer investors' questions as to why one of MS's big cash cows is not coming to the successor of one the most important platforms for that game with: "CONSOLE WARZ!!!"
 
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