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Next-gen PS5 and next Xbox speculation |OT10| - We aim to transition those from OT9 at a pace never seen before. [SEE THREADMARKS FOR CHANCE AT GLORY]
- Thread starter Mecha Meister
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I don't understand how they get away with not reporting Xbox Live subscriber numbers. Wouldn't investors want to know that?
I don't want to see any estimates from you while we wait for the reveals in April
Investors don't care about the why or how, they care about the bottom line that's it.
kleegamefan was officially verified, was he not? The links are in the OP.
Hmm...
Time to update to my second last prediction:
Assuming hypothetical 20WGP w/4 CUs disabled, PS5: 8.29 - 9.2TF
XsX: ≥9.75TF (2x the performance of X in real world tests)
Huge influence ($$$) that new R* game can have on both MS and Sony, as platform holders (they take 30% platform holder tax from 3rd parties).
People thought it's Fortnite and actually it was RDR2.
Every time I see the Series X prediction under 12... I think y'all got wind of some news.
What info y'all sitting on? lol
Courageous, putting XsX this low.
I'm not sure about how fast, but my prediction would be 56 CUs for XsX and 54 (3x20WGP with 6 disabled).
Given the Oberon crazy fast tests though, I'd put PS5 clocked slightly higher than XsX, just enough to make it about the same.
If the target is 12 it's unlikely to be 9 they'll be above 10 minimum.
Albert Panello comments on SOC design (2)
The SOC's that AMD are building for Microsoft and Sony are *highly* customized specifically for the vendors based on specs, cost, and performance requirements that each platform defines for AMD. There is no off-the-shelf equivalent of anything that goes inside an Xbox or PlayStation, and the idea they are "pre-made" really misunderstands what's happening and sort of diminishes the role of Cerny or the architects at Microsoft in terms of how much custom work goes into the chip.
AMD has IP and Processes. Sony and Microsoft work with AMD's list of available IP and Processes, add in some of their own requirements, and have an entirely new SOC created specifically for them. This process takes years. Everyone is aware that the PS4 Pro GPU had unique HW instructions for temporal reconstruction, as well as support for FP16 that did not exist together in other part of the AMD portfolio. The ability to decode Xbox 360 textures and much of the native DX12 instructions in the Xbox SOC's only appear in the versions that ship on Xbox (the DX stuff I believe ended up in later AMD GPU's.) This is the 'secret sauce' that is so often talked about, and it absolutely can work for (or against) a specific console. I don't think Sony got much mileage out of FP16, and Xbox One's implementation of ESRAM didn't help them as much as expected either. While the Checkerboard techniques helped PS4 Pro a lot, and the ability to decode X360 textures is why you have such a good back compat story on Xbox.
Here's the best way I can think of to describe it. Think of AMD as a Caterer. They have a list of ingredients (e.g. Zen, RDNA, HW RT, etc. etc.) and they also have a set menu based on their ingredients. (RX5000 series, RX Vega series, RX 500 series). Most people think that Xbox and Sony choose from the Menu. But what actually happens is they choose from the ingredients, add in some of their own specific ingredients (DX instructions, Back Compat Code, Checkerboard, etc.) and have an entirely new dish created just for them.
My point is that even though AMD's R&D efforts provide the groundwork, the specific SOC found in PlayStation and Xbox consoles are completely bespoke designs in collaboration with AMD and the platform makers, and are designed years in advance. This is why anyone speculating that wholesale performance changes can happen at any time don't seem to realize how far in advance these decisions are made.
Yes small changes can happen throughout the process and plans evolve from the initial spec to the final production silicon. But you can't grow the performance of the chips this late in the game without restarting some pretty critical, long-pole parts of the process.
I'm only speaking from one side of this, but I'm pretty sure it's similar on the PlayStation side.
EDIT: Upon a re-read, I'm not giving enough credit to AMD's engineers either. It really is a collaboration between the companies. But the performance, cost and business aspects are defined by the consoles. The real silicon engineering is a collaboration.
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Arguably being the key word.
I love the gameplay of Uncharted 2 and The Last of Us. Same with the original GoW trilogy. Definitely not playing that for the story.
The post above you had 9 that's why I said that, I also think since it's been posted everywhere ms will do anything to hit 12
I can't imagine Sony could have done such a huge change if Oberron really is the planned chip for PS5.
I do believe though there's something else that has been in the work that hasn't leaked. Or secret sauce.
Or devs have been downplaying a 3tf difference.
That's great and all. But if they don't produce greats on their first go then MS, once again will be in a generation where they largely focus on make sequels to Gears, Halo and Forza. Because as is always the case, with a new gen comes increased costs and increased development times. They likely won't get the luxury of several tries in a single generation to strike gold.
And the reason people expect the absolute best next gen from MS is because they delivered some of the absolute worst this gen in regards to first party output. This is their chance to turn it around. But coming to the table to with crackdown/state of decay/recore-level titles again won't convince anyone that they've changed. They need the big guns and they need them now. Hell, if I were MS I'd be moving coalition and 343 onto new IP's. At the very least they're studios who have had the time to become capable. I'm sure they both have the desire to work on something other than a second hand franchise.
Yeah worth mentioning this post isn't supposed to advocate for a specific leak or that I think one is right or the other is wrong. I'm in the dark as much as the next person.
What I do know is that nothing is changing right now :)
Oh goodness no. If I had insider information then like Klee I'd ask for a ban (personally, I lack self restraint). I drew my numbers from a few key (and some utterly bereft of context) rumours:
1. The supposed rumour about PS5 & XsX are relatively quite close in power.
2. The whole GitHub leak of some APU that may or may not have been some rendition of PS5's APU. Plus all that Komachi leak about frequency of base PS4, Pro and an unknown HW.
3. DF tested X's framerate performance against 5700XT which is rated at 9.75TF and was, on average, displaying twice the FPS. So for X, the only metric I have considered is TF figure and how it translates to real world performance. Of course, this post comes to mind.
4. All the probable GPU diagrams thus far are based on existing Navi chip blueprint which is bereft of RT HW. If, like nVidia, AMD are to feature dedicated RT cores then within a finite amount of space, something must give to make space for said HW. So presumably that is one reason why PS5's GPU, for its given area, cannot host more than 36CUs (I am assuming 40CUs total w/4CUs disabled for yield purposes). Of course, that's all speculative and AMD's HW driven RT can easily be something else. Personally, I'd love for Liabe Brave to chime in.
IIRC Oberon was clocked at 1.8GHz for Firestrike test and Komachi's tweet mentioned 2GHz and so between that 9.216TF is the ceiling with 20WGP w/2WGP disabled.
Is the technology exchange a one-way thing where the customer is picking from a buffet unilaterally, or are there agreements where customer specified features trickle into consumer products via agreement between the two parties?
Definitely not. Where those tests testing what could be done, or was that clock set in stone? Clock speeds are one of the last things to be confirmed because they are tweaking them right up to manufacture date.
besides some upclocks? XB1 had a late upclock in summer 2013. What data changed that allowed that adjustment that you didnt have earlier in the year or even late 2012? what kinda testing was done so late that the change could be made that close to launch? thanks so much for your insights!
Totally depends. Trying to be specific enough to make my point without disclosing anything I shouldn't. It's a collaboration is the best thing to say.
Do a search on my post history I cover this one specifically a couple times. tl:dr - there was headroom in the case design and it didn't cost much in terms of yields. Some luck involved :)
Thank you for clarifying many things to us Albert! :)
Thanks for you input on the collab, we never know much about what goes behind the screen
to my understansing at least the 8 ACE configuration on PS4 ended up in later AMD cards. They'd previously been ok with 2. It's possible that was on AMDs roadmap but it's also possible Sony specified it to get a more compute-friendly GPU, something Cerny did speak about in interviews I believe
Apparently someone else in the comments went and made comments about switching from controller to keyboard due to hating controllers. So it likely is a game (not a console).
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