Ah Forbes what a interesting site
My Google news feed is full of articles like these.
Gears 4 didn't move the needle for goty mentions and neither did Gears 5
Gotta capture both sides of the audience.....
As I've already said in my last post, 18 months before the console launch is ~6 months before the APU needs to be ready. Sony and MS are not AMD, they aren't building a GPU for launch, they are building a polished console. Do you really think the whole APU was redesigned (and we are talking about a redesign, 36 CU -> 56 CU is ~50mm^2, that's a big change that will completely redesign the chip and other parts need attention too, an 8TF GPU and a 13TF GPU needs different bandwidth for instance) in 6 months? I highly doubt it. If the PS5 APU was redesigned, it had happened in 2018 or even earlier. Thing is, the Gonzalo, Flute, Github leaks and every twitter silicon data miner twites don't seem to match a 2018 redesign.
If we didn't have all these insiders talking about PS5 and XSX being close in power we would have said that the PS5 design is very clear to us by now. Just because we do have these claims that PS5 is at the XSX level, that we doubt invent different stories in order to make the real hardware leaks somehow invalid. If one of these insiders would have given us concrete info, like CU count or TF numbers, it would have been easier. If someone like Klee would have said something like "PS5 is targeting 12.8TF", then we could have had something. But right now, all we have is a few hardware leaks and none of them match the 12TF+ PS5 dream.
Could you answer this for me.
When you were working on the one X, and it was 12 months before release, if Bill Gates walked in and said " Hey guys, I want you to wack on 4 more compute units", just how much time and cost are we talking about to just chuck on some more Cu's? Would you have plenty of time to make the launch date? What sort of things would you need to crash test the GPU for by adding said Cu's?
Thanks muchly.
It would be impossible. You'd either delay the program, try and see what you could get done within the chip you had (enable redundant CU's or upclock) or ship what you have.
I'm not a silicon engineer. Someone who is may be able to speak in more depth. My experience would say that "adding CU's" to a chip that doesn't have them is no longer that chip, it's a new program.
What I can tell you is that 12 months before release, you're actually manufacturing consoles. Not final consoles, but you have production lines going and are manufacturing units for validation and testing.
Phil tweeted in December that the team had take home units. Those are pre-production units but "pre-production" is still made on a production line. It may not be using all the final parts, but the process is designed to work out manufacturing kinks.
To ship for the end of the year, manufacturing is likely starting in late summer which at this point is only 4 - 5 months away.
I follow up on #teamFeb and double dip on #team14ButCouldBeInThe13I will remain #teamFeb until 2/29. Just as team 2019 was redeemed, so will team feb.
We were like glory's gate, my darling.
If they are to be priced the same, then XSX may have a chance.I'm the only one who thinks in US and UK XSX will destroy PS5 in sales?
They were locked into their design by that point. Timings and clock speed are the only things you can change at that point on an APU.Any guesses on why Microsoft didn't replace their GPU in XBox One and instead they increase the clock of their CPU only?
I think google picked up on me coming here daily because i get a ton of stupid articles about the ps5 : "everything you need to know', "what it's going to look like" etc...
Any guesses on why Microsoft didn't replace their GPU in XBox One and instead they increase the clock of their CPU only?
I also think you are leaving out a possibility that this was a BC test of Oberon with some cores disabled. Just like it is missing RT, and yet we know it has RT, it is very possible that they put a 54 CU unit in the PS5 and that when it runs in BC mode 18 CUs are disabled. If this were a test focused on BC then it also would not mention anything about RT, since original hardware has no RT.2) Arden doesn't have any benchmarks which show ROPS numbers, does it mean that XSX doesn't have ROPS? No, it just doesn't have ROPS related benchmarks in the files. So, Oberon doesn't have RT just because there weren't RT benchmarks in the files? No, it doesn't mean that.
3) Consoles don't just have a 5700 thrown into them, the APU they use goes through heavy customization. If they want to "throw away the 5700 and replace it with 5800", what really needs to happen is to change the 5700 based design they've had and redesign it to look more like a 5800. Replacing all the masks and redoing all the testing and debugging process costs millions of dollars and adds a lot of development time, which makes it less likely both because of costs and because of the late date.
As I see it, there are just two ways this could have gotten down. The first is that the Github leak is the PS5, that's it, simple as that. Oberon has RT, it was 1.8 in early 2020 and became 2Ghz somewhere between April and July. It fits the Gonzalo leak (April 2019), it fits the Flute leak (July 2019) and it fits the Github leak (July 2019). The second option is that PS5 was upgraded at some point in 2018 because mid-2019 is just too late for a redesign. It's a real option but unfortunately, the Flute and Github leak don't fit that scenario, unless PS5 is a 12TF+ machine running at 2Ghz. If you don't think 36 CU @2Ghz PS5 makes sense, I'm sure you are going to doubt a 48 CU @2Ghz (12.2TF) GPU.
Whatever game any developer is undertaking is limited by money and time. So mainly money. A lot forget that Guerrilla Games was some small studio that could not get a quality game out. What changed?It's likely because the pillar franchises within MS are there to appease existing owners. Not entice new ones. And that's fine but it limits growth. Gears, Halo, Forza. They're known quantities. Suffering under sequelitis. And we know for a fact the likes of 343, The Coalition and Turn10 are going to be stuck making more of the same next gen too...which leaves MS's recent acquisitions to be the big draw. And while I think Ninja Theory are narratively inventive devs with great technical ability. Their games, by and large...aren't actually very good, they're middling action games at best. Then there is Obsidian who generally make jank with nice stories. And the other studios have either produced mediocre games (We Happy Few) or produced incredibly niche ones (Inxile/Doublefine)
Now, not to say it's out of the realms of possibility that Inxile or Compulsion or Doublefine might be making MS's next big AAA mainstream titles...but nothing indicated they are or that they are even capable. And so we might just get an exclusive Wasteland 4 and Brutal Legend sequel on Xbox next gen instead and it'll attract the 7 people out there who care...
I know this is an incredibly cynical take. But in my mind MS bought a bunch of cheap studios to pad things out with the exception of Playground who were practically first party anyway...now if they'd have bought some bigger name studios like Remedy, or IO interactive, or Kojima productions etc. Then I'd maybe share the faith others seem to have regarding next gen and MS offering new and high quality exclusives.
Proof is in the pudding for me though right now. No more excuses. MS need to bring their A game with new IP's asap.
I know this is an incredibly cynical take. But in my mind MS bought a bunch of cheap studios to pad things out with the exception of Playground who were practically first party anyway...now if they'd have bought some bigger name studios like Remedy, or IO interactive, or Kojima productions etc. Then I'd maybe share the faith others seem to have regarding next gen and MS offering new and high quality exclusives.
Proof is in the pudding for me though right now. No more excuses. MS need to bring their A game with new IP's asap.
I personally hope it's wired. Rather they focus on as low as possible latency and other tech than wireless. But I also get that wireless would reach to a bigger audience.
Hellblade was really good and that's because they focused on their strenght, but yeah, overall they're not very good at making action games. They've been very mediocre at it.And while I think Ninja Theory are narratively inventive devs with great technical ability. Their games, by and large...aren't actually very good, they're middling action games at best.
I don't think Sony would have hit the "oh shit" button 6 months ago. If there's a redesign, it was always intended/in the works way before that. Github tests could have just been additional useful data for both Sony and AMD.I think several other people have talked on this point as well, but I cannot find those posts right now. Basically there is no way that Sony could just throw it together in six months. Anything that makes the chip larger in die size is going to be a massive re-design.
You learn something new each day.
regarding the backwards Compatibility.What if Oberron is for a Sony laptop that supports PS4 games / focused on PS Now, reaching into the PC market that way? Not very likely though, even with HZD coming to PC.
I personally hope it's wired. Rather they focus on as low as possible latency and other tech than wireless. But I also get that wireless would reach to a bigger audience.
Hellblade was really good and that's because they focused on their strenght, but yeah, overall they're not very good at making action games. They've been very mediocre at it.
I don't think Sony would have hit the "oh shit" button 6 months ago. If there's a redesign, it was always intended/in the works way before that. Github tests could have just been additional useful data for both Sony and AMD.
Yeah, that's a lot of revisions for something you don't plan to use....The fact Oberon was stepped to E indicates that it is not a throwaway design.
First of all, don't take this the wrong way, because I still think that Oberon testing was probably just a BC test with some of the die disabled (so maybe a 54 CU unit), but your last paragraph is just not correct. Even though AMD has created these products, the APUs that Sony and Microsoft are having made are not modular drop in designs. Their chips are designed from the ground up. There is a ton of work that goes into designing a chip, then creating a die, then making small runs to do testing and validation, making small revisions, and then with final product designing the rest of the parts of the console and getting fab times scheduled, etc....But major changes in terms of anything that adds CPU or GPU cores is basically a "start all over again" kind of process. Albert Penello talked about this in the thread just a couple days ago when he was asked this question:
I think several other people have talked on this point as well, but I cannot find those posts right now. Basically there is no way that Sony could just throw it together in six months. Anything that makes the chip larger in die size is going to be a massive re-design.
I agree with this. Microsoft Studios should be hitting their stride late 2021 and all through 2022, assuming not everything the different studios are working on gets delayed :)Yeah but it will take a few years to see what the results of these acquisitions. Obviously they hired some real talent and have the potential to match Sony but then again Sony also has a strong first party lineup and a deep pool of Japanese dev relations to develop third party exclusives.
yes, but the topic was Microsoft's chances to beat Sony in selling more consoles, so popularity was the focusI'm more concerned with how a game plays and feels than how much it sells. I absolutely loved Quantum Break but it didn't sell well. Death Stranding has a really good story yet has a huge drop off it's second month. We aren't the business we shouldn't care about the sales numbers but the quality of a game. Was Hellblade 1 good even though it only sold 1 million? Popularity is a poor metric to track as some of the best games aren't really that popular. I think fortnite and Justin Bieber are trash but they sure are popular.
I'm more concerned with how a game plays and feels than how much it sells. I absolutely loved Quantum Break but it didn't sell well. Death Stranding has a really good story yet has a huge drop off it's second month. We aren't the business we shouldn't care about the sales numbers but the quality of a game. Was Hellblade 1 good even though it only sold 1 million? Popularity is a poor metric to track as some of the best games aren't really that popular. I think fortnite and Justin Bieber are trash but they sure are popular.
Yeah, their heavy focus on Kinect games and then games as a service that they had in the end of the 360 era/beginning of Xbox One era really sucked valuable resources away from good games. I feel like there was a significant change when they got their own seat at the head of the table as an actual division inside of Microsoft. Before that they were part of the Windows group, which always seemed like such a weird fit for a gaming division that wasn't very focused on PC.They also had studios during end of 360/early XB1 like Lionhead and botched those. I'm optimistic but I will wait to see if they truly turn it around, 1-2 announcements won't sway me after being burned by a decade of Rare doing very little.
when Fable reboot is out, Rare IPs have been revived (PD, BK, etc) and they've got some new IPs out that turn out good, I'll jump into XSX
Come and get your fresh hot takes folks! Step right up! Fresh hot takes!Ninja Theory is mediocre now that belongs to Xbox Game Studios. Simple as that.
Well I mean Heavenly Sword, Enslaved, Disney Infinity or whatever were pretty shite. DmC was mid, Hellblade was good for the most part. That's not a sterling record.
How many Sony studios are putting out GOTY contenders? Sony Santa Monica, Guerrilla Games, Naughty Dog, and you could throw in Insomniac. Microsoft will compete when it comes to quality.
What is?
was it hyped before that?Ninja Theory is mediocre now that belongs to Xbox Game Studios. Simple as that.
Suker Punch has unironically more chances to win than any of Microsoft new studiosHow many Sony studios are putting out GOTY contenders? Sony Santa Monica, Guerrilla Games, Naughty Dog, and you could throw in Insomniac. Microsoft will compete when it comes to quality.
What is?
What if Oberron is for a Sony laptop that supports PS4 games / focused on PS Now, reaching into the PC market that way? Not very likely though, even with HZD coming to PC.
I personally hope it's wired. Rather they focus on as low as possible latency and other tech than wireless. But I also get that wireless would reach to a bigger audience.
Hellblade was really good and that's because they focused on their strenght, but yeah, overall they're not very good at making action games. They've been very mediocre at it.
I don't think Sony would have hit the "oh shit" button 6 months ago. If there's a redesign, it was always intended/in the works way before that. Github tests could have just been additional useful data for both Sony and AMD.
maybe I'm not remembering something great that they made? but heavenly sword, enslaved, dmc and hellblade were pretty mediocre mechanically, They were just wrapped in pretty visuals and/or interesting story. I mean, hellblade had pretty damn janky combat that was repetitive to boot...it was it's themes of mental illness that made it unique and worth playing. No one was sticking around for the "great gameplay" lol.
and you could argue they did it on a budget, but even when they have a higher budget they still tend to produce mediocre gameplay.
No the topic was about games.yes, but the topic was Microsoft's chances to beat Sony in selling more consoles, so popularity was the focus
btw I'm not a fan of Hellblade or DS, but I get that was not the point
Ninja Theory is mediocre now that belongs to Xbox Game Studios. Simple as that.
No. I'm suggesting that they've had several possible PS5 SoC configurations developed simultaineously, targeted at different possible launch timeframes (19/20/21) and likely different possible price points as well. The tapeout is the point of no return when you actually choose which configuration you will use in your final product. Up until that moment everything is done in s/w prototypes and off-the-shelves PC h/w. This point is likely about a year from launch, considering how AMD tapeouts are usually happening and the fact that this is a console SoC, not a GPU for AIBs or a CPU to be sold separately from the rest of the system.
Hell yeah!!!
That last bit is basically my argument. I don't think a games popularity so to speak is a metric for purchasing it. Same with the consoles for me it's more about services, where my friends play, and controller. I couldn't care less if all the games were multiplat Exclusives mean little to me apart from the fact I have to spend an additional 4-500$ to play them.How well something sells is a pretty reliable predictor of what we're going to see more of, so to the extent that I want to understand what studios are going to be able to fund ambitious projects, or what IPs are likely to get sequels it makes sense to pay attention. I do agree that the correlation between how well a game sells and how much I'll enjoy it is pretty weak, so it's not something I look at when deciding what to buy or play.
So every studio has to have had "The Last of Us" level success to be considered good? That seems like a ridiculous argument. Let's remember that Naughty Dog was purchased by Sony when they were still making Crash Bandicoot games.was it hyped before that?
Actually I think it got way more popular after its acquisition, the first game sold 1 million copies after 1 year on 3 platforms, while the second chapter's trailer got 1,3m views in just one month
For comparision TLOU sold something like 15-20 millions, while the second chapter's first trailer has got 8 million views afetr more than 3 years