The thought process behind your predictions is pretty thorough, so good job. But this part is a sticking point. Sony would not be "cutting losses" by sticking only to flawless chips. Quite the opposite, they would be paying far more per device. Chances are good they'd end up with an offering that was notably less powerful than Microsoft, and simultaneously costing them more. Against years of that on every console they make, the high one-time cost of designing an entirely new chip doesn't seem prohibitive.
The power gap had nothing to do with Kinect, that was the cause of the price gap. It was their RAM setup that caused them to be less powerful. But the size of APU in the Xbox One was roughly equal to PS4, so in an alternate universe where Microsoft went with better silicon design, they still wouldn't have been more powerful.
As for Pro, yes the One X is considerably more powerful. But I believe it was Phil Spencer himself who said that if they'd launched in 2016, they would've been at the same level. The power gap is due to a strategic positioning choice by Sony; the hardware was as good as it could be for a console price.
He didn't find it, this has been posted previously (maybe last OT?). At the time, there was discussion about the exact topic of the talk. Turn10 mention realtime RT, but also light probes for baking. It's not entirely clear if they mean RT will be in their game at runtime, or if they're going to talk about how to position probes to best capture RT effects, before then baking them into your runtime visuals.
No, nextgen--even at 60fps--will look much better than
Deep Down. Some of the volumetric effects might be the same, but geometry, textures, materials, and IQ will be far improved.
Also, the playable version of
Deep Down, though it didn't look quite this good, already ran at 60fps.
Incorrect. Here's two Navi products with game clock above 1.7 GHz:
As for 2 GHz+, there are at least claims that
this is achievable on many Navi cards using user-created tools. Certainly people have run that way, for more than "a few seconds", using only air cooling. Sustainability and power draw are issues with this setting, of course. But the N7P node revision could conceivably address some of those, as could something akin to the "Hovis Method".
Even your calm retelling of this story itself overstates the "surprise" factor of the higher RAM densities. Hynix had them a year and half before PS4 launched. And I recall that their CEO later said they'd been talking closely with Sony.