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Overall maximum teraflops for next-gen launch consoles?

  • 8 teraflops

    Votes: 43 1.9%
  • 9 teraflops

    Votes: 56 2.4%
  • 12 teraflops

    Votes: 978 42.5%
  • 14 teraflops

    Votes: 525 22.8%
  • Team ALL THE WAY UP +14 teraflops

    Votes: 491 21.3%
  • 10 teraflops (because for some reason I put 9 instead of 10)

    Votes: 208 9.0%

  • Total voters
    2,301
Status
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VallenValiant

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,598
Btw only few days before we know how much loss Sony predicts to take on ps5 for their fy2019 /2020 forcast .unless they hide it all .lol
Well they would take a loss no matter what. If they started setting up production for PS5, they will be spending a lot of money but with no way of getting money back until AFTER the consoles are produced, stockpiled, THEN sold. And not to mention all the marketting they will burn cash on. All way before they see a cent of cash coming back. Console launches are expensive.
 
Nov 12, 2017
2,877
I feel next month after AMD reveal of Navi we will have better idea on what's happening .
there are different rumors and website reporting AMD will just touch Navi architecture at computex and do a full reveal at e3 (at this point at Ms place I think?) This would explain why Spencer was on amd stage lately.

"We are all expecting AMD to be announcing all things 7nm during Computex 2019 in the last week of May, but what I've been told my exclusive sources is that AMD might touch on its next-gen Navi GPU at Computex 2019 but will instead do a full announcement at E3 2019."

https://www.tweaktown.com/news/65560/amd-launch-next-gen-navi-graphics-cards-e3-2019/index.html

https://www.overclock3d.net/news/gp...h_in_june_with_high-end_models_coming_later/1

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/amd-navi-e3-launch,38464.html
 

MrKlaw

Member
Oct 25, 2017
33,038
I'm pretty sure I read about some games getting quite a lot out of it.

I even read about a renderer that more or less successfully implemented (almost) everything through fp16 - with large performance improvement on supporting hardware - with the claim of little perceptible visual difference vs a fp32 path. (This wasn't a renderer used in a game - just an academic experiment).

The issue with it is, until it's generally available on all your targets, you're probably not going to make such aggressive use of it.

I also wonder though - with talk of Navi being a next step from Polaris rather than Vega, if Navi will have FP16/RPM support as standard. I guess Sony would roll it in regardless, given Pro's support of it, but I suppose they could technically have the option to ditch it while keeping full support for Pro features in BC, if the chip offers at least 2x the single precision floating point performance of Pro.

But I hope it stays in.

If Navi is a progression of Polaris will it still have those vega features in that were borked? Things like the vertex setup and culling etc?
 

Gamer17

Banned
Oct 30, 2017
9,399
there are different rumors and website reporting AMD will just touch Navi architecture at computex and do a full reveal at e3 (at this point at Ms place I think?) This would explain why Spencer was on amd stage lately.

"We are all expecting AMD to be announcing all things 7nm during Computex 2019 in the last week of May, but what I've been told my exclusive sources is that AMD might touch on its next-gen Navi GPU at Computex 2019 but will instead do a full announcement at E3 2019."

https://www.tweaktown.com/news/65560/amd-launch-next-gen-navi-graphics-cards-e3-2019/index.html

https://www.overclock3d.net/news/gp...h_in_june_with_high-end_models_coming_later/1

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/amd-navi-e3-launch,38464.html
I think they would reveal their PC cards at their own event .why reveal PC cards at e3 when non of the consoles will be using those cards ? Maybe APU reveal is at e3 ?
 

MrKlaw

Member
Oct 25, 2017
33,038
More or less about the same time. Was reading yesterday a rumor about orbis (PS4) and majority of devs started to get their kits around July 2012.

I would guess it will be pretty similar with next-gen consoles. I think MS and Sony will have teasers this year and nothing more than that, with both doing their own reveal event next year and going nuts with games at E3 2020.

Big difference is I think Sony didn't talk about PS4 at all until the Feb reveal? So them talking in April about PS5 at least in partial detail is a lot earlier than last gen
 

Gamer17

Banned
Oct 30, 2017
9,399
Big difference is I think Sony didn't talk about PS4 at all until the Feb reveal? So them talking in April about PS5 at least in partial detail is a lot earlier than last gen
Well they don't live in a bubble .their competitions are all talking now and since they skipped so many events they just wanna communicate with their fans to fell relaxed.its coming ,don't worry type of a thing
 

jroc74

Member
Oct 27, 2017
28,992
The discussion of $399 working well historically for Sony is an interesting one, and Albert's breakdown does add a lot of food for thought. I do think however that in this case not only are they in a strong position, but the general 'acceptable' average price of tech has increased a fair amount over the past few years. For this reason I'm still thinking $450-500 is much more likely - the affect that'll have on specs vs profitability though who knows.
I'm thinking $450 too. I said that was the minimum for the One X before it launched. I'm going to go with that again. It's an odd number, but hey. lol
 

MrKlaw

Member
Oct 25, 2017
33,038
I'm thinking $450 too. I said that was the minimum for the One X before it launched. I'm going to go with that again. It's an odd number, but hey. lol

$449 spring launch, early adopter tax. Drop to $399 for the holidays after you get your production pipeline tightened up and to bring in slightly more mass market consumers.

Spring has become a completely valid 'second fall' for games these days - Sony almost puts more attention to spring than it does for the holidays in terms of first party output. I think that plus several big third parties pushing games away from the fight into spring makes that a good option for a hardware launch.
 

Andromeda

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,845
Big difference is I think Sony didn't talk about PS4 at all until the Feb reveal? So them talking in April about PS5 at least in partial detail is a lot earlier than last gen
The situation is different than previous gen:
- They had to announce PS4 BC to be sure people would still buy games on PS4
- To change the narrative for next gen with their almost instant loadings while MS seem focused on power alone
- To spoil MS E3 party, People will talk and think about PS5 while MS will show maybe some part of their vision.
- And finally because of the inevitable leaks because they are sending dev-kits to 3rd party devs. But I hink the previous reasons are the main reasons.
 

bdsams

Executive Editor of Petri.com and Thurrott.com
Verified
Apr 23, 2019
34
Very interesting, thanks for that link!




bdsams Can you clarify this a little bit? In the video you state that the anaconda is planned to match the power and performance of the ps5. In your post yesterday you said you expect the anaconda to top the ps5 in terms of raw specs. Did something change between now and when you recorded that video that would make you believe Microsoft is now planning on topping the ps5 in terms of performance instead of just matching it?

Sure and I agree, things are confusing based on that.

Microsoft's Dante (the dev kit) is more powerful than Anaconda, this is typical, as you give devs the kitchen sink and ship a subset of that hardware. From what i have seen, the dev kit matches the CPU/GPU but things like RAM, and ports are different. Anaconda will have a smaller amount of RAM but I dont think it's locked down yet as they wait to see how performance shakes out across the industry.

To go from 12 to 16 gb of ram is trivial at this point, or to go from 16 to 32 etc can be done but will come down to cost. So what I believe is happening, they are weighing out Sony's options and pricing RAM and storage etc (still expecting full solid state, likely of the NVME flavor) to make sure they are significantly more expensive than the PS5 but they also want that crown of highest performing device.

It's a bit like poker, Microsoft wants to, at minimum, match the PS5 but in reality, is trying to have better specs at the end of the day. But with neither company playing their cards fully yet, we don't quite know.


Remember, the base features, CPU/GPU are both coming from AMD, so raw features for those parts will be similar but will come down to thinks like clock speed, cooling, and software optimization.
 

christocolus

Member
Oct 27, 2017
14,932
Sure and I agree, things are confusing based on that.

Microsoft's Dante (the dev kit) is more powerful than Anaconda, this is typical, as you give devs the kitchen sink and ship a subset of that hardware. From what i have seen, the dev kit matches the CPU/GPU but things like RAM, and ports are different. Anaconda will have a smaller amount of RAM but I dont think it's locked down yet as they wait to see how performance shakes out across the industry.

To go from 12 to 16 gb of ram is trivial at this point, or to go from 16 to 32 etc can be done but will come down to cost. So what I believe is happening, they are weighing out Sony's options and pricing RAM and storage etc (still expecting full solid state, likely of the NVME flavor) to make sure they are significantly more expensive than the PS5 but they also want that crown of highest performing device.

It's a bit like poker, Microsoft wants to, at minimum, match the PS5 but in reality, is trying to have better specs at the end of the day. But with neither company playing their cards fully yet, we don't quite know.


Remember, the base features, CPU/GPU are both coming from AMD, so raw features for those parts will be similar but will come down to thinks like clock speed, cooling, and software optimization.
Interesting.
 

Dantero

Member
Jan 23, 2018
971
Where are those juicy nextbox spec leaks you were mentioning in your latest video. 😄we are ready.
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,913
Maryland
Sure and I agree, things are confusing based on that.

Microsoft's Dante (the dev kit) is more powerful than Anaconda, this is typical, as you give devs the kitchen sink and ship a subset of that hardware. From what i have seen, the dev kit matches the CPU/GPU but things like RAM, and ports are different. Anaconda will have a smaller amount of RAM but I dont think it's locked down yet as they wait to see how performance shakes out across the industry.

To go from 12 to 16 gb of ram is trivial at this point, or to go from 16 to 32 etc can be done but will come down to cost. So what I believe is happening, they are weighing out Sony's options and pricing RAM and storage etc (still expecting full solid state, likely of the NVME flavor) to make sure they are significantly more expensive than the PS5 but they also want that crown of highest performing device.

It's a bit like poker, Microsoft wants to, at minimum, match the PS5 but in reality, is trying to have better specs at the end of the day. But with neither company playing their cards fully yet, we don't quite know.


Remember, the base features, CPU/GPU are both coming from AMD, so raw features for those parts will be similar but will come down to thinks like clock speed, cooling, and software optimization.

Are you suggesting the RAM is either 16GB or 32GB?
 

Mula

Banned
Jan 18, 2019
280
To go from 12 to 16 gb of ram is trivial at this point, or to go from 16 to 32 etc can be done but will come down to cost. So what I believe is happening, they are weighing out Sony's options and pricing RAM and storage etc (still expecting full solid state, likely of the NVME flavor) to make sure they are significantly more expensive than the PS5 but they also want that crown of highest performing device.



sorry it's probably a stupid question, I do not understand this part. You said MS is trying to match Sonys Price, that sounds different now, does MS accept a higher loss?

I believe (could be wrong, we have been talking about this for a long time) I stated that Microsoft was aiming to match the price point of the PS5 with Anaconda. Lockhart should be cheaper, aka the value device, for the next gen.
 

grosbard

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
767
Sure and I agree, things are confusing based on that.

Microsoft's Dante (the dev kit) is more powerful than Anaconda, this is typical, as you give devs the kitchen sink and ship a subset of that hardware. From what i have seen, the dev kit matches the CPU/GPU but things like RAM, and ports are different. Anaconda will have a smaller amount of RAM but I dont think it's locked down yet as they wait to see how performance shakes out across the industry.

To go from 12 to 16 gb of ram is trivial at this point, or to go from 16 to 32 etc can be done but will come down to cost. So what I believe is happening, they are weighing out Sony's options and pricing RAM and storage etc (still expecting full solid state, likely of the NVME flavor) to make sure they are significantly more expensive than the PS5 but they also want that crown of highest performing device.

It's a bit like poker, Microsoft wants to, at minimum, match the PS5 but in reality, is trying to have better specs at the end of the day. But with neither company playing their cards fully yet, we don't quite know.


Remember, the base features, CPU/GPU are both coming from AMD, so raw features for those parts will be similar but will come down to thinks like clock speed, cooling, and software optimization.

Thanks Brad, that all makes sense! Basically, Microsoft's end goal is to match the PS5 price with anaconda while offering more performance. Right now, it's more or less a waiting game to see what Sony does with the PS5 specs. Once Microsoft knows more or enough than they will modify the Anaconda as much as possible in order to come out on top.

I know you don't know a specific dollar amount, but have you heard anything along the lines of how much Microsoft is willing to lose per console? Are they willing to take a significant hit on hardware in hopes that their software (primarily Game Pass and xCloud) will easily make the hardware loss worth it?
 

big_z

Member
Nov 2, 2017
7,794
Are you suggesting the RAM is either 16GB or 32GB?

He's saying the cost of going to 16GB next gen is fairy minor. The X already uses 12GB so bumping to 16 works within the budget well. (16GB is roughly 2.5X more useable ram then current gen btw) However jumping from 16GB to 32GB, while possible, is pricey and will eat up a good portion of the budget.
 

Raide

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
16,596
He's saying the cost of going to 16GB next gen is fairy minor, the X already uses 12GB. (16GB is roughly 2.5X more useable ram then current gen btw) However jumping from 16GB to 32GB, while possible, is pricey and will eat up a good portion of the budget.
I wonder if 24 would be a suitable middle ground?
 

MrKlaw

Member
Oct 25, 2017
33,038
I wonder if 24 would be a suitable middle ground?

Technical limitations may limit practical 'last minute' changes to eg 2x ram. For example if the dev kit uses 2x ram they could use that layout. Moving to a completely different ram amount may require significant changes to the motherboard and memory bus layout and take much longer

(By last minute I mean around the 12 months prior to launch)
 

VallenValiant

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,598
$449 spring launch, early adopter tax. Drop to $399 for the holidays after you get your production pipeline tightened up and to bring in slightly more mass market consumers.

Spring has become a completely valid 'second fall' for games these days - Sony almost puts more attention to spring than it does for the holidays in terms of first party output. I think that plus several big third parties pushing games away from the fight into spring makes that a good option for a hardware launch.
As I mentioned previously, I don't think "early adopter tax" was ever a thing. Unless you mean a price drop after a full year. Any kind of "price drop after 3 months" is a pipe dream, unless the console sales was in free fall and the company panicked.
 

Jeffram

Member
Oct 29, 2017
3,924
Sure and I agree, things are confusing based on that.

Microsoft's Dante (the dev kit) is more powerful than Anaconda, this is typical, as you give devs the kitchen sink and ship a subset of that hardware. From what i have seen, the dev kit matches the CPU/GPU but things like RAM, and ports are different. Anaconda will have a smaller amount of RAM but I dont think it's locked down yet as they wait to see how performance shakes out across the industry.

To go from 12 to 16 gb of ram is trivial at this point, or to go from 16 to 32 etc can be done but will come down to cost. So what I believe is happening, they are weighing out Sony's options and pricing RAM and storage etc (still expecting full solid state, likely of the NVME flavor) to make sure they are significantly more expensive than the PS5 but they also want that crown of highest performing device.

It's a bit like poker, Microsoft wants to, at minimum, match the PS5 but in reality, is trying to have better specs at the end of the day. But with neither company playing their cards fully yet, we don't quite know.


Remember, the base features, CPU/GPU are both coming from AMD, so raw features for those parts will be similar but will come down to thinks like clock speed, cooling, and software optimization.
Leaving ram, heatsink, etc, suppliers in limbo and therefore your motherboard and APU memory I/O design in limbo until you learn enough about a competitors product seems like a terrible way to ensure max performance for price and a risky design mentality.

Maybe this is normal... but IMO if Microsoft late in the game tries to order different parts they will be at a negotiating disadvantage.
 

Dant21

Member
Apr 24, 2018
842
The dev kit has a lot of RAM, let's just put it that way and Anaconda will have less than the dev kit.
Not surprising. I believe it was the case for at least the past generation, that the final hardware-equivalent devkits had double the RAM of the actual consoles for easier debugging. I'll bet that's the case here.
 

Dizastah

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,124
Sure and I agree, things are confusing based on that.

Microsoft's Dante (the dev kit) is more powerful than Anaconda, this is typical, as you give devs the kitchen sink and ship a subset of that hardware. From what i have seen, the dev kit matches the CPU/GPU but things like RAM, and ports are different. Anaconda will have a smaller amount of RAM but I dont think it's locked down yet as they wait to see how performance shakes out across the industry.

To go from 12 to 16 gb of ram is trivial at this point, or to go from 16 to 32 etc can be done but will come down to cost. So what I believe is happening, they are weighing out Sony's options and pricing RAM and storage etc (still expecting full solid state, likely of the NVME flavor) to make sure they are significantly more expensive than the PS5 but they also want that crown of highest performing device.

It's a bit like poker, Microsoft wants to, at minimum, match the PS5 but in reality, is trying to have better specs at the end of the day. But with neither company playing their cards fully yet, we don't quite know.


Remember, the base features, CPU/GPU are both coming from AMD, so raw features for those parts will be similar but will come down to thinks like clock speed, cooling, and software optimization.

Thanks. I think both systems will end up the same price with Anaconda performing slightly better.
 

Raide

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
16,596
Leaving ram, heatsink, etc, suppliers in limbo and therefore your motherboard and APU memory I/O design in limbo until you learn enough about a competitors product seems like a terrible way to ensure max performance for price and a risky design mentality.

Maybe this is normal... but IMO if Microsoft late in the game tries to order different parts they will be at a negotiating disadvantage.
I am guessing they probably have a few options in mind and will pick once more information comes out. With the basic info already out there, it won't be long till a real leak happens and MS go from there.
 

Deleted member 22750

Oct 28, 2017
13,267
If 8tflops at 399 shows you exactly what mindset Sony have.

It's all about the software and they look at Nintendo and say "why not us..?" We can compete as long as our software speaks for itself.

Meaning they can be underpowered. They just have to keep pumping out quality software you can't play on Xbox. Is anyone really going to cry about ps4 being significantly(?) weaker when they are playing death stranding and the last of us 2 with graphics that will be way better than what they had with ps4? at 399$?

Say Sony doesnt continue to hit homeruns with their software (not that I think will happen) and Anaconda does start pumping out high quality amazing looking exclusives......

It all starts to get interesting. People with negative opinions on Xbox might end up changing their minds.

A 399$ console makes sense from a confident Sony.
 
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Alandring

Banned
Feb 2, 2018
1,841
Switzerland
$449 spring launch, early adopter tax. Drop to $399 for the holidays after you get your production pipeline tightened up and to bring in slightly more mass market consumers.
In this cas, a $449 spring launch and a $449 bundle with one game for Black Friday/Crazy Monday/December seems better for me. The official price remains 449 (until at least the second holidays), but you give a game to increase the value of the console.
 

Mula

Banned
Jan 18, 2019
280
If 8tflops at 399 shows you exactly what mindset Sony have.

It's all about the software and they look at Nintendo and say "why not us..?" We can compete as long as our software speaks for itself.

Ich don't think this is Sonys mindset ;)

At Sony, we look for the risk-takers, the collaborators, the inspired and the inspirational. We want the people who are brave enough to work at the cutting edge and create solutions that will enrich and improve the lives of people across the globe. So, if you want to make the world say wow, let's talk.
https://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/Careers/
https://youtu.be/_O4lMOq2OwI
 
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Deleted member 38397

User requested account closure
Banned
Jan 15, 2018
838
Not surprising. I believe it was the case for at least the past generation, that the final hardware-equivalent devkits had double the RAM of the actual consoles for easier debugging. I'll bet that's the case here.

Haven't we seen some devkit specs saying 48GB or 64GB in them? Which suggests 24 or 32 for the final console.
 

Deleted member 40133

User requested account closure
Banned
Feb 19, 2018
6,095
So basically the differentiation is going to be in things outside of the cpu and GPU is what I'm understanding. Or any difference between the two is not big enough to impactful
 

AegonSnake

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
9,566
14? You sir are an optimist ;)

I was part of Team 8tflops so im actually a pessimist. but with the latest GPU clockspeed increase from 1 to 1.8ghz, i have to accept the evidence. the math also adds up. going from 16nm PS4 Pro and X1X to 7nm will allow them do add 2.3x more CUs to the die while also increasing clock speeds. 2.3x * 36CU = 82 CUs. Since they cant go above 64 CUs for GCN GPUs, they will stick to 64 and use the remaining power to massively increasing the clockspeeds hence the 1.8ghz rumors. 64 CU at 1.8Ghz gives us 14 tflops.

The only way its not going to be 14tflops or above is if they add ray tracing cores in place of their usual compute cores. But i doubt that either company will give up the tflops advantage so they will have high tflops AND dedicated ray tracing hardware.

Even if the TFLOP figures for PS5 and Anaconda were more like 12 TF and 12-14 TF, respectively, the best thing of all would be, No Lockhart, and thus, no lowest common denominator that's significantly less powerful than the other two consoles.
Yep, i am perfectly fine with a 12 tflops GPU with dedicated turing cores for ray tracing. Nvidia did this with their RTX line. A 2080 is actually just an 8.9 tflops GPU but with dedicated turing cores that make it a lot more attractive. i think MS will realize that they cant beat Sony in the tflops range and double down on ray tracing cores. they will have to take a bigger loss than Sony but it will be their one big trump card.
 
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BitsandBytes

Member
Dec 16, 2017
4,576
Not surprising. I believe it was the case for at least the past generation, that the final hardware-equivalent devkits had double the RAM of the actual consoles for easier debugging. I'll bet that's the case here.

While this will most likely be true for Xbox (Chuckwalla has 24GB of GDDR5) I haven't ever seen it confirmed to be the case for PlayStation devkits? At least the real/final hardware devkits?
 

Deleted member 1589

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,576
The only way its not going to be 14tflops or above is if they add ray tracing cores in place of their usual compute cores. But i doubt that either company will give up the tflops advantage so they will have high tflops AND dedicated ray tracing hardware.
Yeah, Sony highlighting the audio chip might mean that the rumor of VR's breakout box embedded in the system might be true. That's some space spent.

Would be great if Sony finds a way to use the breakout chip for something else when you aren't using VR though.
 

Bradwaung

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
136
Can someone please tell me what the point of having up to 32GB of RAM is? Isn't that too much for a console? **asking for a friend ^^
 

Bradwaung

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
136
Oh, I understand now. Thanks a lot.

EDIT : I quoted the two people above that answered my questions but it didn't work. Sorry, and thanks again to those guys/girls.
 

Keith Stat

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,258
While $400 worked for PS4, it just isn't a formula they can copy/paste in to 2020. In 2013, they had the fortune of having the most powerful console, a struggling Nintendo and Microsoft and nothing akin to whatever threat Stadia might be to all the competition in the industry. Different consumers prioritize power and price and they almost assuredly won't have that luxury of being the "best" choice for both groups this time around.

I never owned a PS3, but the value proposition made it easy for me to switch over to PS4 this time around. While BC is HUGE for retaining consumers, if the XB1 2 is significantly more powerful (I'm talking somewhere in the 8ish vs 12ish+ TF range), it will likely be my "main" console in that it means i'm almost exclusively buying 3rd party games on it, using it for online and making purchases in that ecosystem. The rise of of recurring service and digital purchases is the "meat" of where the "big" money has been made this generation.

I just fundamentally don't think a 8 TF machine makes sense in 2020. When the competition is offering 6 TF in 2017, such a marginal leap just doesn't seem worth it until there is a compelling reason to make that leap. I just don't buy it all and think it would be akin to some of the colossal mistakes Microsoft made going into this generation, especially with what the competition is likely to be offering.
 

AegonSnake

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
9,566


Jason Schreier
@jasonschreier

https://twitter.com/jasonschreier/status/1121422364330348544

As I said on today's Kotaku Splitscreen - if you're wondering why Sony randomly dropped PS5 news last week, one reason is that (I hear) a bunch of third-party studios got/are getting dev kits this month. Sony knew info would start leaking now. So they beat everyone to it

lol Cerny himself gave that reason in the wired article.

Get your press sneak fuck hat on Schrier and get some specs for crying out loud.
 

Sekiro

Member
Jan 25, 2019
2,938
United Kingdom


Jason Schreier
@jasonschreier

https://twitter.com/jasonschreier/status/1121422364330348544

As I said on today's Kotaku Splitscreen - if you're wondering why Sony randomly dropped PS5 news last week, one reason is that (I hear) a bunch of third-party studios got/are getting dev kits this month. Sony knew info would start leaking now. So they beat everyone to it


It really was smart of Sony to stay ahead of the curve by discussing the PS5 last week, because even they know that now that the dev kits are out to 3rd party devs, even they can't possibly prevent a leak this time around.

The floodgates have truly opened.
 

Kaako

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,736
^^They definitely made the right call with the official sneak peak wired article. We'd have 10 different spec rumors about now.
 
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