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Overall maximum teraflops for next-gen launch consoles?

  • 8 teraflops

    Votes: 43 1.9%
  • 9 teraflops

    Votes: 56 2.4%
  • 12 teraflops

    Votes: 978 42.5%
  • 14 teraflops

    Votes: 525 22.8%
  • Team ALL THE WAY UP +14 teraflops

    Votes: 491 21.3%
  • 10 teraflops (because for some reason I put 9 instead of 10)

    Votes: 208 9.0%

  • Total voters
    2,301
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Zohar127

Member
Oct 27, 2017
171
Damn, people really start calling Mark Cerny a liar now?? And give more credit to supposed "leakers" than an actually engineer designing the hardware??

I get the feeling people forget that the engineering team of Cerny (and MS' engineering team as well for that matter) are working on next gen consoles since 4 years ago according to Cerny (MS most likely as well, although it could be 3 years ago because of the later launch of the One X).

It is literally their 8 hour/9-5/5 days a week job to evaluate manufacturing options, future technology use cases, possible implementations and possible graphical upgrades they can expect in the next years. And of course engineer their own designs, coolings solutions etc. They have possibly designed 10-12 different console configs with different weightings in terms of hardware allocation and evaluate all of that in regards to future pricing of components, long term visual benefits, speed, letting developers create what they want, own profits, future price reductions, future slim versions.

If they wanted to have hardware RT they could easily engineer it on their own and implement it in their own design. They don't have to wait for an official AMD hardware reveal for that...

There was also back in the PS4 launch day an interview with Cerny and AMD where they talked about GPU development. And AMD literally said that most people think that console makers just use off the shelf GPUs and then change the design to fit their own system, but that is in fact completely opposite: Usually the console makers hardware team set the basis for the mainstream GPUs and then AMD just cuts the special hardware/ custom designs and sells it to the mainstream.

Man, don't you know the keyboard warriors that read Anandtech, like, every day know better than actual computer scientists and hardware engineers?

I joke, but in all seriousness, these threads always have a ton of Dunning-Kruger effect reasoning in them. It's fun to speculate but sometimes people get way too invested.
 

chris 1515

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,074
Barcelona Spain
His biggest mistake is assuming that the RTX cores aren't efficient in voxel intersections, but they are. The cores are split into two types of fixed functions, ray to box intersection and ray to polygon intersection. The first type, ray to box, is used for BVH intersection checks but it can be also used for voxels intersections because voxels are basically boxes. Cone tracing, that's indeed something else that will not be accelerated by the RT cores (as far as I know) and ray marching is something that I don't really see applied in games because building your whole gaming world in SDF representation sounds inconceivable to me.

But we do need to remember that these methods take the idea of RT and create a very low fidelity version of them so instead of using millions of thin rays, they use fat cones or instead of detecting a ray hit to the fine point of the polygon level, they hit a big voxel. So yeah, these methods bring a type of low fidelity light simulation but it is only comparable to a very low setting RT simulation and usually, each method is specifically tailored to achieve just a single RT effect.

I am sure it is implementable on current RTX. I don't have the courage to search but in an old tweet Sebastian aaltonen(Claybook programmer) asked the support of this functionality on DXR to Morgan Mc Guire(Nvidia).
 

Hoo-doo

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,292
The Netherlands
No we had a leak 5 months before the reveal that was showing exactly the hardware diagram

That didn't stop the torrent of shaky leaks and misguided speculation though. The 'secret sauce' that currently is a running gag was dead serious for some people.

People see what they want to see until launch, and some even beyond that.
 
Nov 12, 2017
2,877
That didn't stop the torrent of shaky leaks and misguided speculation though. The 'secret sauce' that currently is a running gag was dead serious for some people.

People see what they want to see until launch, and some even beyond that.
Well yes but all the "famous" insider at that point said that the leak was true and that the PS4 was more powerful ...Sure we had mr.x lol
 

AegonSnake

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
9,566
I am sorry if I missed this, but how much more power efficient is HBM2+DDR4 compared to GDDR6? What would 16-24GB of GDDR6 consume?

Say if we have a 12 tflops GPU with 20GB of GDDR6 RAM and 4GB of DDR4 RAM, would it be possible to go for a 14 tflops GPU while maintaining the same overall TDP if we (or i should say Sony) go for the rumored 8GB HBM2 16GB DDR4 RAM?
 

Kuro

Member
Oct 25, 2017
20,653
I am sorry if I missed this, but how much more power efficient is HBM2+DDR4 compared to GDDR6? What would 16-24GB of GDDR6 consume?

Say if we have a 12 tflops GPU with 20GB of GDDR6 RAM and 4GB of DDR4 RAM, would it be possible to go for a 14 tflops GPU while maintaining the same overall TDP if we (or i should say Sony) go for the rumored 8GB HBM2 16GB DDR4 RAM?
Nah it's probably only a 10w difference, maybe less.
 

PLASTICA-MAN

Member
Oct 26, 2017
23,620
2 types of memory will not make the console more complex to develop to?

With DDR4 and HBM2 or GDDR6, they will perform like PCs. It's not like a fancy type of memory like eSRAM or XDR that devs aren't accustomed to, but I really don't know if Sony will end up with 2 memory types, maybe for the current devkits, that is if this rumor is true.
 
Sony - FY2018 earnings

Rösti

Member
Oct 25, 2017
801
ir_main_btn18Q4_en.jpg


FY2018 Earnings Announcement

Date: 2019.4.26 [Fri] 17:15(JST)
Presenters:
Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer Hiroki Totoki
Senior Vice President,
Finance Atsuko Murakami
VP,
Senior General Manager, Global Accounting Div. Hirotoshi Korenaga

https://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/er/index.html

t1556266500z4.png


PlayStation Meeting 2013 was held February 20, 2013, and that featured of course the reveal of PlayStation 4. On May 9, 2013, Sony announced its Consolidated Financial Results for the Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2013 and also provided a handout featuring an FY13 forecast (among other things):

sony_handout_fy2012teklo.png


As you can see, PlayStation 4 is mentioned. The forecast provided for FY18 (page 5) looks like this:

sony_handout_fy2017fhkcs.png


While Sony has yet to announce launch date and price for the system (apart from it not launching in 2019, per Wire's recent WHAT TO EXPECT FROM SONY'S NEXT-GEN PLAYSTATION article), maybe there is a slight chance of a comment on PlayStation 5 come April 26. There's always the opportunity for analysts to ask questions about the system.
 

Jaypah

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,866
Eh there is no one that knows what exactly both are doing at the moment so to laugh it off or to confirm it doesn't make sense .(maybe a very few devs who got both dev kits but those won't post on Reddit for sure and those dev kits are not finalized ).

Where is the link to this thread ??
He should stick with Xbox only. Why he commenting anything about the PS5 when he knows nothing about it.
Tbf, hmqgg is a MS insider who admittedly knows very little about PS5. In which case, I would be hesitant to take any post from him/her that is not purely about MS/Xbox with a hefty heap of salt.

Uh, the poster knows about MS plans and the post they're replying to states that Anaconda is doing things "the traditional way" which prompted a ROFL as the poster presumably knows that it isn't. I didn't read anything into that response about Sony at all considering they've already stated they only know about MS plans.
 

bdsams

Executive Editor of Petri.com and Thurrott.com
Verified
Apr 23, 2019
34
Sams was also sure the Xbox SAD would be $150-$200 so yeah...

I believe this is still accurate, what I wrote is that the console would be $200 or less - when you add the value of the three games it comes with in, this is accurate. If SoT, FH3, and Minecraft are worth ~$20 or more, than the console is less than $200.
fRkZe5U.png
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,913
Maryland
I believe this is still accurate, what I wrote is that the console would be $200 or less - when you add the value of the three games it comes with in, this is accurate. If SoT, FH3, and Minecraft are worth ~$20 or more, than the console is less than $200.
fRkZe5U.png
Welcome to the thread!

I think we all expect S to drop to $200 at BF like normal and SAD will be $150. If we don't get an official drop before then that is.

Rumor is that Sony has a PS4 revision ready to drop in at $200 this Fall.
 

Thorrgal

Member
Oct 26, 2017
12,319
Jez isn't an insider. He just sometimes gets info from other people.

So is Sams to be fair. He gets his info from various people inside MS, according to him


Brad Sams and Jez Corden are not Insiders. They are both members of media outlets reporting about Microsoft and Xbox and the information they get from their sources inside the company

Even more reason to be subject to public scrutiny then

They made it clear that none of that was sourced by somebody within MS but instead expressing their expectations.

Not at all. He said clearly that he "was hearing from his various sources that MS was targeting a below $200 price". You can check it for yourself in the Crapgamer podcast were he said that, if you're so inclined.


I believe this is still accurate, what I wrote is that the console would be $200 or less - when you add the value of the three games it comes with in, this is accurate. If SoT, FH3, and Minecraft are worth ~$20 or more, than the console is less than $200.
fRkZe5U.png

Actually I was referring to your intervention on the Crapgamer podcast, when you said you were hearing from your sources that they were targeting a sub-$200 price, if you remember, clearly referring to MSRP.

It looked to me from that, and also from the video you posted after that, criticizing MS for the final $250 price, that you were in fact expecting a $200 MSRP, weren't you?
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,151
United Kingdom
Uh, the poster knows about MS plans and the post they're replying to states that Anaconda is doing things "the traditional way" which prompted a ROFL as the poster presumably knows that it isn't. I didn't read anything into that response about Sony at all considering they've already stated they only know about MS plans.

The post he was responding to was making a claim about PS5's memory system being some X times faster than Anaconda. BS or not, any comment by a MS refuting such a claim should probably be taken with a pinch of salt, since if said insider knows little about what PS5 is doing, then how can they refute a claim about how much faster the memory system is or not? -- that was the point of my post.

TBF, however, assuming hmqgg knows what MS is doing, he'd likely know if it's even economically feasible to do it X times faster. So an analysis based not on a knowledge of the competition, but what MS is doing vs what is hypothetically possible is absolutely sound.

As such, my previous comment should just be taken as a general point regarding insiders, as I admit in the context of that post by hmqgg it doesn't seem to apply.

Yes,i asked him that months ago,he said then he has no info about PS5,only next Xbox.

Thanks for the confirmation. This only buttresses the point.
 

Jaypah

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,866
Welcome to the thread!

I think we all expect S to drop to $200 at BF like normal and SAD will be $150. If we don't get an official drop before then that is.

Rumor is that Sony has a PS4 revision ready to drop in at $200 this Fall.

A $199 PS4 would wreck the Fall. What are they now at retail, $250?
 

bdsams

Executive Editor of Petri.com and Thurrott.com
Verified
Apr 23, 2019
34
Welcome to the thread!

It seemed pretty clear from that and also from the video you posted after that, criticizing MS for the final $250 price that you were, in fact, expecting a $200 MSRP, weren't you?

Yes, the console MSRP to be sub $200, this is accurate. I was not expecting them to bundle a bunch of games with this hardware to artificially raise it's perceived value.
 

Jaypah

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,866
The post he was responding to was making a claim about PS5's memory system being some X times faster than Anaconda. BS or not, any comment by a MS refuting such a claim should probably be taken with a pinch of salt, since if said insider knows little about what PS5 is doing, then how can they refute a claim about how much faster the memory system is or not? -- that was the point of my post.

TBF, however, assuming hmqgg knows what MS is doing, he'd likely know if it's even economically feasible to do it X times faster. So an analysis based not on a knowledge of the competition, but what MS is doing vs what is hypothetically possible is absolutely sound.

As such, my previous comment should just be taken as a general point regarding insiders, as I admit in the context of that post by hmqgg it doesn't seem to apply.



Thanks for the confirmation. This only buttresses the point.

And all I'm saying is that as a MS insider the only thing I saw him refuting was the part about MS. As a self proclaimed MS insider it makes no sense to even think he's laughing at the Sony portion of that post.
 

Super Barrier

Member
Nov 20, 2017
1,336
Uh, the poster knows about MS plans and the post they're replying to states that Anaconda is doing things "the traditional way" which prompted a ROFL as the poster presumably knows that it isn't. I didn't read anything into that response about Sony at all considering they've already stated they only know about MS plans.

Good point. I had not thought of hmqgg laughing at the "Anaconda doing it the traditional way" comment. It all makes sense now.
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,151
United Kingdom
Yes, the console MSRP to be sub $200, this is accurate. I was not expecting them to bundle a bunch of games with this hardware to artificially raise it's perceived value.

Hi Brad,

Nice to see you posting here.

I have a question about Lockheart, I was hoping you might be able to shed some light on.

DF seems to think the GPU will be rated around the performance of the PS4Pro at 4TFLOPs peak theoretical in SP.

I understand that your comments on the subject have pointed more towards it being around the level of the XB1X, i.e. 6 TFLOPs.

Do you happen to have any more you can share on this? Or even just to give a perceived level of confidence in your sources?
 

Thorrgal

Member
Oct 26, 2017
12,319
Yes, the console MSRP to be sub $200, this is accurate. I was not expecting them to bundle a bunch of games with this hardware to artificially raise it's perceived value.

Thanks for confirming the veracity of my quote and ofc welcome to the forum!

Now that you're here, the point of discussion from you videos that raises most questions in here is the fact that MS was targeting the specs of the PS5, which would mean they'd be similar in price and final specs. Is that still the plan?
 

Deleted member 40133

User requested account closure
Banned
Feb 19, 2018
6,095
Uh, the poster knows about MS plans and the post they're replying to states that Anaconda is doing things "the traditional way" which prompted a ROFL as the poster presumably knows that it isn't. I didn't read anything into that response about Sony at all considering they've already stated they only know about MS plans.

I didn't read it as that at all. He's reading it (like all of us were) that 2-3 times the perfomance of RAM as compared to the next xbox. The whole point of that post was the ram performance.
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,151
United Kingdom
And all I'm saying is that as a MS insider the only thing I saw him refuting was the part about MS. As a self proclaimed MS insider it makes no sense to even think he's laughing at the Sony portion of that post.

This doesn't make sense. He's clearly refuting the comparison.

Regardless, I've made my position clear on it. If he knows what MS is doing, he likely has an idea if it's even possible to do it 16x faster (or whatever the 4chan guy claimed).

As a general point, however, my post about insiders still stands.

hmqgg was the guy who also claimed decompression was the reason behind Sony's Spiderman load times demonstration detailed in the recent Wired article. Clearly, a guy who himself claims to have little knowledge of the PS5 making such a claim seems a little... presumptuous; hence, the principle that a MS claiming anything about PS5 should be taken with a pinch of salt.... I'm not really sure why this seems to be such a contentious issue for you?
 

thuway

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,168
I believe this is still accurate, what I wrote is that the console would be $200 or less - when you add the value of the three games it comes with in, this is accurate. If SoT, FH3, and Minecraft are worth ~$20 or more, than the console is less than $200.
fRkZe5U.png
According to your sources how much more powerful is Anaconda supposed to be over PS5?

In prior videos you mentioned that Microsoft was actually aiming to match PS5, than said it would be more powerful. So I'm not sure what the ongoing conversations are and would appreciate clarification if you can :).
 

Deleted member 12635

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
6,198
Germany
He said clearly that he "was hearing from his various sources that MS was targeting a below $200 price". You can check it for yourself in the Crapgamer podcast were he said that, if you're so inclined.
I saw Brad Sams already answered why he thinks $200 is still correct from his point of view.
Also: You listen to Crapgamer podcasts? Really?
 

Thorrgal

Member
Oct 26, 2017
12,319
A $199 PS4 would wreck the Fall. What are they now at retail, $250?

I think the MRSP is still $299/299€, isn't it?

They have some sales for $250, some bundles as well and during the last 2 BF they've had a limited stock of $199 sku's.

Fake edit: Just checked and at this time the cheapest you can get a Slim for in Amazon is indeed $299
 

Thorrgal

Member
Oct 26, 2017
12,319
I saw Brad Sams already answered why he thinks $200 is still correct from his point of view.
Also: You listen to Crapgamer podcasts? Really?

And also confirming the veracity of my quote my friend.

Regarding the podcast, I listened to it because Sams was in it, as I am as hungry for next gen info as anyone spending as much time as we do in this thread, so who are you to shame me for it? Mmm
 

bdsams

Executive Editor of Petri.com and Thurrott.com
Verified
Apr 23, 2019
34
According to your sources how much more powerful is Anaconda supposed to be over PS5?

In prior videos you mentioned that Microsoft was actually aiming to match PS5, than said it would be more powerful. So I'm not sure what the ongoing conversations are and would appreciate clarification if you can :).

I believe (could be wrong, we have been talking about this for a long time) I stated that Microsoft was aiming to match the price point of the PS5 with Anaconda. Lockhart should be cheaper, aka the value device, for the next gen.

From what I have been hearing, it is my expectation that Anaconda will top PS5 in terms of raw specs, that's the expectation but there are a lot of variables to this equation.
 

grosbard

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
767
I believe (could be wrong, we have been talking about this for a long time) I stated that Microsoft was aiming to match the price point of the PS5 with Anaconda. Lockhart should be cheaper, aka the value device, for the next gen.

From what I have been hearing, it is my expectation that Anaconda will top PS5 in terms of raw specs, that's the expectation but there are a lot of variables to this equation.

So, anaconda better performance and same price as the ps5. That's what I expected. Like you said, lots of variables though.
 

vivftp

Member
Oct 29, 2017
19,763
It dropped to $199 with Spider-Man and the only thing that stopped it from selling more was that the channels simply ran out. If the MSRP on the new model is $199, it will go lower this BF. The question is what game to pack in. Maybe Dreams?

I just had a scary thought... $199 PS4 with TLOU2 packed in.
 

Deleted member 12635

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
6,198
Germany
Clearly the subject of interest was Brad Sams... or by that same token would you also want to shame Brad Sams for even appearing on the podcast?

It's a slippery slope my friend.
Some decisions are better than others. Accepting an interview by crapgamer falls into my category of a bad decision. We all make mistakes from time to time.
 

AegonSnake

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
9,566
oh shit brad sams in the house!

next we need Cerny to come in here on a random tuesday and drop the 14 tflops confirmation megaton.
 
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