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When will the first 'next gen' console be revealed?

  • First half of 2019

    Votes: 593 15.6%
  • Second half of 2019(let's say post E3)

    Votes: 1,361 35.9%
  • First half of 2020

    Votes: 1,675 44.2%
  • 2021 :^)

    Votes: 161 4.2%

  • Total voters
    3,790
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.

BreakAtmo

Member
Nov 12, 2017
12,838
Australia
They're sticking with that $399 price point.

They have with the PS4, they have with the PS4 Pro and they have with the PSVR, Sony loves that $399 price point, it's the sweet spot of being an affordable console at a satisfactory price, wouldn't be surprised if the PS5 will be sold at $399, even if they might need to sell it as a loss, Sony's shareholders love that price.

I think you're seeing a supposed pattern where there is none. They decided on $399 as an appropriate price for the PS4 in 2013, which it was, but it may not be so in 2020. The Pro and the PSVR may also be $399 specifically because they didn't feel a mid-gen console and an accessory should go beyond the price set by the original - this doesn't necessarily apply to a whole new gen. By the end of next year it will be a full 14-15 years since $399 became the standard console launch price (not counting the really gimped 360 model), and the Pro and X show just what can be done with that extra $100. $399 isn't a sweet spot, it's a price that has seen success in the console market because it's always been put up against more expensive competitors.

They could still do $399, but I think they'd need to take a loss to make something good. The price doesn't need to be $499, but I do think the unit cost needs to be around that.
 

Albert Penello

Verified
Nov 2, 2017
320
Redmond, WA
The price is "known". Better to say the BOM is known. You don't need to tell the developer that at gdc. Everyone thought that the PS4 was 499 until E3 2013. So this price leak stuff is beyond questionable

To be *pedantic* the BOM is actually one of the last things you know. When all is said and done, after testing is complete and you have a full picture of your yields, capacity and tooling, 1st and 2nd sources of components (and the final mix), shipping and palette sizing, current shipping costs and exchange rates THEN you know the BOM.

But I'm just giving you a hard time. Your point is correct. The BOM is the target the team is actually working towards. That's the cost of the device which in turns is huge lever in the overall business.

The actual *price* is a business decision and may (or may not) be directly related to the BOM. I would agree almost no chance price is discussed at GDC because it's not a business event. Destination PlayStation, E3... that's where retailers are and that's when price is discussed. Rarely is price discussed beyond the top executives at this point in time.
 

BreakAtmo

Member
Nov 12, 2017
12,838
Australia
To be *pedantic* the BOM is actually one of the last things you know. When all is said and done, after testing is complete and you have a full picture of your yields, capacity and tooling, 1st and 2nd sources of components (and the final mix), shipping and palette sizing, current shipping costs and exchange rates THEN you know the BOM.

But I'm just giving you a hard time. Your point is correct. The BOM is the target the team is actually working towards. That's the cost of the device which in turns is huge lever in the overall business.

The actual *price* is a business decision and may (or may not) be directly related to the BOM. I would agree almost no chance price is discussed at GDC because it's not a business event. Destination PlayStation, E3... that's where retailers are and that's when price is discussed. Rarely is price discussed beyond the top executives at this point in time.

It makes sense, you can't know the exact BOM right off the bat. Maybe you could aim for a vague 'around $400', but it ends up more like $416.56.
 

modiz

Member
Oct 8, 2018
17,841
I guess I missed people freaking out over another fake rumor. Lol
It will be better than 9TF imo. Also those ram numbers are ridiculously low. Good thing it already got debunked at least.
I hardly believe Sony will go below 10TF.
Thing is, if the 1.8GHZ is correct (after thinking about it more, I think the 1.8 might be a stress test or dev kit while the final console at something around 1.5 or 1.6 ghz) it's more likely a 499 price tag is planned.
 

Xeontech

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,059
It comes from reddit and this person just speculates in relation to Gonzalo's code

updatedamdgonzalogpu7qj32.png
Lol crocka shit then
 

modiz

Member
Oct 8, 2018
17,841
The reddit OP does mention something interesting, about how a 20CU 555mhz Navi is supposedly closely matching a Vega 56.
Anyone knows the source of this claim? If that is true then I can definitely see next gen having Lower compute than expected while having really high performance.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,844
To be *pedantic* the BOM is actually one of the last things you know. When all is said and done, after testing is complete and you have a full picture of your yields, capacity and tooling, 1st and 2nd sources of components (and the final mix), shipping and palette sizing, current shipping costs and exchange rates THEN you know the BOM.

But I'm just giving you a hard time. Your point is correct. The BOM is the target the team is actually working towards. That's the cost of the device which in turns is huge lever in the overall business.

The actual *price* is a business decision and may (or may not) be directly related to the BOM. I would agree almost no chance price is discussed at GDC because it's not a business event. Destination PlayStation, E3... that's where retailers are and that's when price is discussed. Rarely is price discussed beyond the top executives at this point in time.
This makes me wonder what the target BOM was for the "OMG $600" PS3. Knowing it came out around $840 US, I'm curious if that's in the ballpark of what they were actually aiming for.
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,151
United Kingdom
I find the obsession with dedicated OS RAM to be the biggest tell that these specs are fan fiction. Why would any game developer need to know anything about RAM only available to the OS? They need to know how much space they have for their own use, and nothing more. It's as absurd as leaking the final retail price to developers.

It's also a sign that whoever is making up the specs doesn't get that it makes no sense at all to assert that the OS will run from slow RAM. Come on, folks. Your game calls OS code to get work done, and the OS manages the final composited framebuffer that includes notifications et al. Why on earth would you design access to any of the above to be slow? The PS4 Pro solution was a mid-generation hack that acts more like fast swap space than RAM to work around an architecture that wasn't designed around 4K gaming from the outset. There might be something similar this time around but it's not something developers need to worry about, and it's not where the whole OS lives.

While I agree with your main point, the PS4 Pro setup was merely a follow-on from the original PS4 that also had a DDR pool and ARM core on the south ridge mainly used for managing streaming and background tasks, e.g. downloads etc.

The reddit OP does mention something interesting, about how a 20CU 555mhz Navi is supposedly closely matching a Vega 56.
Anyone knows the source of this claim? If that is true then I can definitely see next gen having Lower compute than expected while having really high performance.

That's non-sense. Whatever software is interrogating the parameters of the engineering samples is misreading the data, or being intentionally fed buff numbers in order to obfuscate the actual Navi figures.

Look guys, AMD isn't going to allow critical performance data about their new unannounced GPU architecture to be readable in some publicly accessible database or encoded into the codification identifier of the chip.

The internet is so thirsty for info. people are mining everything and trying to ascribe meaning to stuff that most likely has none.

It's people seeing the face of Jesus on a slice of toast again.
 

modiz

Member
Oct 8, 2018
17,841
While I agree with your main point, the PS4 Pro setup was merely a follow-on from the original PS4 that also had a DDR pool and ARM core on the south ridge mainly used for managing streaming and background tasks, e.g. downloads etc.



That's non-sense. Whatever software is interrogating the parameters of the engineering samples is misreading the data, or being intentionally fed buff numbers in order to obfuscate the actual Navi figures.

Look guys, AMD isn't going to allow critical performance data about their new unannounced GPU architecture to be readable in some publicly accessible database or encoded into the codification identifier of the chip.

The internet is so thirsty for info. people are mining everything and trying to ascribe meaning to stuff that most likely has none.

It's people seeing the face of Jesus on a slice of toast again.
Okay yea this was my assumption and I didnt understand what he was talking about lol. Thanks for answering.
 

M.Bluth

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,251
The reddit OP does mention something interesting, about how a 20CU 555mhz Navi is supposedly closely matching a Vega 56.
Anyone knows the source of this claim? If that is true then I can definitely see next gen having Lower compute than expected while having really high performance.
Yeah that can't be true.

In the post they seem to believe that Navi changes from 64SPs/CU to 128, which is possible. But that also means that at 555Mhz it's producing 2.8TFLOPs!
Navi might improve on real-life gaming performance/TFLOP like Nvidia's GPUs, but the difference versus Vega can't be this gigantic.
 

Thorrgal

Member
Oct 26, 2017
12,319
I'd rather not spend hours of my life on loading screens. Some games are up to 60% slower.

https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-2019-03-08-best-ssd-for-gaming-2019-7012



A SSD alone isn't a $100 differentiator. $50 at most. If they choose to be $399 instead of $499, they've made other compromises too. The issue is that the $400-$500 point is still on the high slope part of the performance/$ differentiation curve, as evidenced by Xbox One X vs PS4 Pro.

Of course they'll have to do other compromises, and of course the X is more powerful at $100 more (and a year later) as a $499 vs a $399 PS5 would be, and of course I'd rather we get the $499 version.

But Sony has to take more things into account than to please the most hardcore of the hardcore, and if they think a less powerful SKU at $399 will sell more, reach more people, than in turn will subscribe to the psplus, than at$499 , which I think it's the case, that's what will get, and it will be perfectly fine.

A month ago people were arguing we shouldn't expect more than 8TF, and now we're arguing that we shouldn't expect less than $499?

I think we'll get more than 8TF at $399

I hope I'm wrong though, and we get a beast, but we shouldn't expect it
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,151
United Kingdom
Okay yea this was my assumption and I didnt understand what he was talking about lol. Thanks for answering.

I think there will be a lot of posts from randonz on places like ERA, B3D and reddit and you do kinda have to take it all with a pinch of salt.

Lots of people are looking at the most prevalent rumours/speculation and then just making shit up to embellish them for their own amusement. Best to assume every so-called rumour is bullshit unless a credible source is able to confirm its details.

At least on the Xbox side you have Thurrot, Brad Sams and that hmqgg (I think) person who posts on ERA.

On the Sony side, we don't really have any credible insiders. Zhuge might know some details that circulate among the financial circles, but its unlikely to be comprehensive and unlikely to be technical; more commercial.

Jschrier is really our only hope, and yet I don't see his dev sources talking to him to reveal the big stuff untill devs kits are fully out in the wild among every Tom, Dick and Harry developer making console games.
 

RevengeTaken

Banned
Aug 12, 2018
1,711
PS4 pro's peak performance in FP16 is almost 8 teraflops and people think Sony would release PS5 in the same power as Pro? 🙃
 

M.Bluth

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,251
Why would it have 128sp/CU?
That could be the most realistic part of that speculation. Some folk have been theorizing that they're doubling the SPs/CU for Navi, I guess in case they can't go above 64CUs with 64SPs/CU and get meaningful improvement..? I don't really understand it so I'll leave it to others, and of course, who the hell knows if that'll happen...
 

BitsandBytes

Member
Dec 16, 2017
4,576
I think there will be a lot of posts from randonz on places like ERA, B3D and reddit and you do kinda have to take it all with a pinch of salt.

Lots of people are looking at the most prevalent rumours/speculation and then just making shit up to embellish them for their own amusement. Best to assume every so-called rumour is bullshit unless a credible source is able to confirm its details.

At least on the Xbox side you have Thurrot, Brad Sams and that hmqgg (I think) person who posts on ERA.

On the Sony side, we don't really have any credible insiders. Zhuge might know some details that circulate among the financial circles, but its unlikely to be comprehensive and unlikely to be technical; more commercial.

Jschrier is really our only hope, and yet I don't see his dev sources talking to him to reveal the big stuff untill devs kits are fully out in the wild among every Tom, Dick and Harry developer making console games.

Can't believe you left out the insider that, IMO, gave the first hints about PS5 specs almost 2 years ago.
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,913
Maryland
A month ago people were arguing we shouldn't expect more than 8TF, and now we're arguing that we shouldn't expect less than $499?

They're both extreme opinions not being advanced by the majority of posters in here.

I wouldn't call the benefits of a SSD only pandering to the hardcore. It's a feature the whole userbase would enjoy and benefit from, like quick start, rest mode, etc. Everyone's online experience would improve due to a higher lowest common denominator.
 

MrKlaw

Member
Oct 25, 2017
33,056
They're both extreme opinions not being advanced by the majority of posters in here.

I wouldn't call the benefits of a SSD only pandering to the hardcore. It's a feature the whole userbase would enjoy and benefit from, like quick start, rest mode, etc. Everyone's online experience would improve due to a higher lowest common denominator.

it'd need to be common to be a lowest common denominator though :) so I hope both Sony and MS adopt it.

SSD cache (64-256GB) + 1TB HDD + user expandable external storage is preferred solution for me.

- Devs get baseline SSD access speeds (not just for level load times but for faster access to secondary assets for streaming worlds etc)
- Smaller cache keeps BOM costs under control for manufacturer
- Users get the benefit of 'big enough' storage for games built in
- users also get the benefit of affordable large capacity expandable storage with mechanical HDD (if internal storage was entirely SSD then any external storage would need to either also be SSD speed = expensive, or games wouldn't be able to guarantee that SSD speed)
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,151
United Kingdom
PS4 pro's peak performance in FP16 is almost 8 teraflops and people think Sony would release PS5 in the same power as Pro? 🙃

FP16 is so rarely used in gaming today the GPU FP16 peak performance is meaningless.

This will change somewhat going forwards but there's only a certain amount of lower precision optimisation you can do. At the same time devs will be required to optimise carefully, using numerical range analysis to understand the level of precision required for the GPU computation.

Unfortunately, all devs aren't Dice/Naughty Dog/Sebbbi. So many won't bother with FP16 optimisations and will just focus on FP32 to be done with it.

More CUs running slower = less heat = longer mean time between failures = cheaper to manufacture.

SPs are the more important fundamental units here and both configs (i.e. either 64SPs/CU or 128SPs/CU) will have the same number of SPs. Clockspeed is entirely independent of the SPs/CU of the archetectural design.

Can't believe you left out the insider that, IMO, gave the first hints about PS5 specs almost 2 years ago.

Who?

Oh, matt? Yeah, I think it's pretty clear matt is not letting anything significant slip. While he clearly knows more than pretty much anyone else about PS5, he's not giving anything away, for obvious reasons.
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,151
United Kingdom
it'd need to be common to be a lowest common denominator though :) so I hope both Sony and MS adopt it.

SSD cache (64-256GB) + 1TB HDD + user expandable external storage is preferred solution for me.

- Devs get baseline SSD access speeds (not just for level load times but for faster access to secondary assets for streaming worlds etc)
- Smaller cache keeps BOM costs under control for manufacturer
- Users get the benefit of 'big enough' storage for games built in
- users also get the benefit of affordable large capacity expandable storage with mechanical HDD (if internal storage was entirely SSD then any external storage would need to either also be SSD speed = expensive, or games wouldn't be able to guarantee that SSD speed)

That's not how mass storage devices on consoles work.

The systems request for data from thw device and its copied at whatever speed the device can achieve. Devs don't build their games to artifically limit the transfer rates of data from mass storage. It's why you get faster loads from an SSD in PS4 in the first place.

why does Vega choke as it approaches 64CU? Seems to hit a wall at about 56CU.

Bandwidth?

Radeon 7 seems to suggest so.
 

MrKlaw

Member
Oct 25, 2017
33,056
That's not how mass storage devices on consoles work.

The systems request for data from thw device and its copied at whatever speed the device can achieve. Devs don't build their games to artifically limit the transfer rates of data from mass storage. It's why you get faster loads from an SSD in PS4 in the first place.
.

Sure but devs will build around lowest guaranteed transfer speeds. Level loading less critical - you just wait a bit longer. But for streaming open world games, devs will be streaming in tertiary data for the areas you're approaching from the HDD. Having an SSD there will increase transfer speed and lower seek times and allow them to bring in more detailed assets, or perhaps reduce the amount of ram reserved as secondary cache becuase they can load it in quickly enough.

In those increasingly common streaming engines, SSD speed could signficantly mitigate a lower amount of RAM
 

Thorrgal

Member
Oct 26, 2017
12,319
They're both extreme opinions not being advanced by the majority of posters in here.

I wouldn't call the benefits of a SSD only pandering to the hardcore. It's a feature the whole userbase would enjoy and benefit from, like quick start, rest mode, etc. Everyone's online experience would improve due to a higher lowest common denominator.


As you said the SSD would only be a part of the $100 difference between a $399 PS5 and a $499, so including it by itself wouldn't be pandering to the hardcore. For me a $499 PS5 would be.

So you say $499 is an extreme opinion, not being advanced by the majority? Yeah, I agree.

But I was arguing the point vs the minority that is advancing that point...I guess you were playing devil's advocate then and don't expect a $499 PS5 either?

I'm well aware of the benefits of a $499 SKU, I just don't think it makes business sense for Sony, that's all.

Thinking selfishly, as a gamer, I hope they release a $499 SKU. As an investor, I hope they don't.

For me, if you release a single SKU, $399 should be the price, and if you release 2, like MS is rumored too, $299/$499 would be best.
 

BreakAtmo

Member
Nov 12, 2017
12,838
Australia
FP16 is so rarely used in gaming today the GPU FP16 peak performance is meaningless.

This will change somewhat going forwards but there's only a certain amount of lower precision optimisation you can do. At the same time devs will be required to optimise carefully, using numerical range analysis to understand the level of precision required for the GPU computation.

Unfortunately, all devs aren't Dice/Naughty Dog/Sebbbi. So many won't bother with FP16 optimisations and will just focus on FP32 to be done with it.

Is there anything being done to automate this process?
 

Bowl0l

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,608
For me, if you release a single SKU, $399 should be the price, and if you release 2, like MS is rumored too, $299/$499 would be best.
Why would Microsoft release a next gen. console at 299? Isn't it better they release it for 399 in order to offer 2 years free subscription for Live, streaming and game pass? Tie everyone to your ecosystem.
 

Thorrgal

Member
Oct 26, 2017
12,319
Why would Microsoft release a next gen. console at 299? Isn't it better they release it for 399 in order to offer 2 years free subscription for Live, streaming and game pass? Tie everyone to your ecosystem.

I mean the idea tha has been making the rounds is that of 2 SKU's, the Lockhart and the Anaconda, one being a cheaper, entry model, and the other a high end model for the hardcore.

But no definite price-points have been leaked. $299/$499 would make sense, but maybe they're going for $249/$449, or $249/$399 (if it's true that the Anaconda is targeting PS5 specs as a rumor indicated, and the PS5 is indeed $399).

I'm not sure if it's a good idea to make consumers pay for a 2 year service in advance, at the cost of a less powerful console though.

If you're suggesting that they give the service for free, so can they for a $299/$499 sku.

If the Maverick is any indication it doesn't come with a subscription, for example. We'll see
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,151
United Kingdom
Sure but devs will build around lowest guaranteed transfer speeds. Level loading less critical - you just wait a bit longer. But for streaming open world games, devs will be streaming in tertiary data for the areas you're approaching from the HDD. Having an SSD there will increase transfer speed and lower seek times and allow them to bring in more detailed assets, or perhaps reduce the amount of ram reserved as secondary cache becuase they can load it in quickly enough.

In those increasingly common streaming engines, SSD speed could signficantly mitigate a lower amount of RAM

Ahhhh, I see what you're getting at now. Apologies.

Yes, you're right. Devs absolutely can design their games to rely on faster mass storage transfer speeds so long as they are ubiquitous.

Is there anything being done to automate this process?

I don't think you can.

The developer HAS to be able to explicitly define the precision used in a given computation.

All, as far as I understand of course. More informed persons may chime in otherwise.

A possible silver-lining is that the reliance on common engines/tool chains and middleware across the industry means those central technology teams could potentially do a lot of the heavy lifting for optimising their rendering workloads to take advantage of features like RPM. The devs then reliant on thise tools will then just benefit from being able to use already optimised code.

It's about time they announced their equivalent.

Is this essentially their E3 conference replacement then?
 

modiz

Member
Oct 8, 2018
17,841
This is Sony's equivalent to Inside Xbox. I think it will fall short of the Nintendo Direct level based on Zhuge's comments.
the format sounds more similar to a direct imo. the content is lacking because they did not optimize their schedule for it yet, i dont remember the first nintendo direct but i cant believe it was that amazing either.
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,913
Maryland
the format sounds more similar to a direct imo. the content is lacking because they did not optimize their schedule for it yet, i dont remember the first nintendo direct but i cant believe it was that amazing either.
Sure, I meant in terms of content quality, not stage and setup, etc.

However, we know there's still a AAA PS4 title to be revealed. Maybe this will be the vehicle?

I hope they have Cerny as a guest at some point. My tub has gone unused for a while.
 

Deleted member 12635

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
6,198
Germany
Is the format of the Xbox podcast and Inside Xbox all that different?

Are there more significant announcemrnts in the latter?

#XboxInside is a live show with sometimes bigger announcements in them.

The Podcasts usually talking about what the cast is playing and sometimes talk to a developer who's game will release or have Xbox internal guests talking about their jobs.
 

SeanMN

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,187
Is the format of the Xbox podcast and Inside Xbox all that different?

Are there more significant announcemrnts in the latter?

The Xbox podcast (Major Nelson Radio) is just a podcast. Larry and Jeff (Rubenstein) talking about games and stuff. While there's an occasional big/interesting guest, it's not meant to be news worthy.

Inside Xbox is a rehearsed live show, typically spotlighting upcoming games, with dev interviews, gamepass game updates, and minor new games and features announced.

They're completely different.
 

Outrun

Member
Oct 30, 2017
5,782
We know about Sony's gamble to go with 8Gb GDDR5 for the PS4, which paid off massively.

Are there any such gambles for this upcoming console generation that can be made?
 
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