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Next gen PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Secret sauces spicing 2019
- Thread starter Phoenix Splash
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I think $399 just won't be possible at the leap that is required. However I think the specs will be a bit higher then Colberts( however I would not be surprised if Colberts came true)
12tflop + 24gb ram for PS5 + anaconda.
Don't really see how MS is a strong position for next gen .
Even if we not talking consoles sales which do matter to a certain level .
Sony already have there cloud service up and expanding into other countries .
Lockhart , Anaconda, Xcloud are just people wishes and don't mean nothing right now .
You can talk about game pass but we need to see how it grows .
Thinking next gen could go either way just not looking at market at least when it comes to hardware sales.
The streaming game that is whole other ball game with other players entering the market .
Really what are the several advantages MS has over Sony.
How dare we are to speculate about next gen specs ..... oh wait, that is what the thread is for .... :-P
1.xcloud is to be on all devices, which gives it an advantage over psnow
2.game pass is better then psnow and will get even better because of more xbox studios making more games for it.
3. Lockhart + anaconda have been verified by multiple leakers, one era has done so.
4.xcloud is not a dream ms have shown and spoken about many times.
Now, can Sony address some of these advantages and potential advantages? Yes they can, but as of now they have not.
Not really, would have no sense to put on the market two console then. Let's imagine if both end up being less powerful then PS5 what will happen?
The strategy for Ms is to make a sandwich to erode ps users on the botton line and on top line ....(casuals and hardcore) and to make this happen you need a console that that have to be more powerful to others on the market and to be sure of it you have go up with price ..and one that is very competitive ...it mean close in performance to the rival but less pricy. For this reason I believe that the console where Ms will eat more loss will be Lockhart and not anaconda . Ms will make us pay the premium specs at 499. If Sony go for 499 too...well that's another story
The things are two.
Sony goes 499 and then people reading Brad correctly
Or people are reading to much in that Brad's line
If Sony goes with one console I'm pretty sure they'll choose to price it at 399 ........not having a "PS5 lite" to fight Lockhart I don't see them givin Ms Lockhart an enormous price advantage ...let's say 349 (Lockhart) vs 499 (PS5/Anaconda) it would be a suicide.
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Dude nothing there is a advantage .
I mean PSnow is also on PC and can be add to other devices and is service you can use right now.
As i said we have to see how game pass going to work out but that is not a advantage at least right now \ same for new companies they buy .
How are leaks a advantage ?
That is just wishful thinking and not a advantage which is some thing like IP , brand , price , marketing deals , specs , etc etc
What Sony have now is worldwide terrifyingly strong brand, and games that millions upons millions of players are looking forward to playing the next iterations of. Real concrete advantages, and not speculative in nature like the ones you produced.
What we're my predictions before the video?
I have posted a lot of predictions lol
The hurdle Microsoft needs to get passed is a much harder one than the ones Sony has to get passed. Sony already has racks of ps3 and PS4 server blades in multiple markets. Making apps for different devices (which they had 5 years ago) and changing the software they have available seems pretty trivial compared to launching a streaming service from nothing.
hope u understand this all looks good for internet sensations and not actually put MS in a strong position for next gen .
The PS4 sales matters and it will give impact on next gen kick starter . and PS4 didn't get just lucky at the beginning , it was from end of PS3 era . it will similar next gen.
MS need to get things ready for mid next gen refreshment to actually leverage it.
My personal opinion , Gamepass won't do the cut. hope their new 1st party teams not only gearing up for Gamepass.
It would be terrible if Anaconda GPU was 3 times more powerful than Lockhart (12 : 4 TFlops) or even twice as powerful (12: 6 TFlops). It's about much more than resolution, because (and I'm probably not using the correct terms) scaling TFlops down from 4K resolution to 1080p resolution does not work with everything graphically speaking. It's not just resolution, but actual graphics complexity, such as polygon count, lighting models and other aspects of graphics other than pixel density. Not to even mention that Lockhart should NOT be a 1080p console anyway, in 2020. If Lockhart was 4-6 TFlops and Anaconda was 12 TFlops, developers (1st and 3rd party) would have to hold their games back from pushing the envelope in all kinds of areas of graphics, so games could run on a far less powerful base console. It is not just a matter of scaling down from 4K to 1080p, as I said.
So IMO, Anaconda should not be much more than 1.5x (50%) more powerful than Lockhart. If Anaconda is 12 TFlops, Lockhart needs to be 8 TFlops. I would expect PS5 to be in the 10-11 TFlop range, which is just barely the lowest estimate Eurogamer/DF guessed for next-gen consoles.
The CPUs for these consoles should all be the same Zen2 - 8 core, 16 thread processors, with the only differences being clock speed.
As far as RAM, Lockhart needs to have 16 GB GDDR6 (and they'll save some cost by using a 256-bit bus), while Anaconda and PS5 should both get 18 GB or even 24 GB on a 384-bit bus. Remember, these consoles are launching in late 2020 most likely, and will have a lifecycle well into the late 2020s, with or without mid generation upgrades.
If Lockhart has an ~8 TF GPU, it will be significantly more powerful than Xbox One X overall (CPU, GPU, RAM and mass storage speed) even if the Lockhart GPU isn't a massive increase over Xbox One X. While PS5 and Anaconda get 10+ and 12 TFlop GPUs, somewhat faster clocked Zen2 CPUs and perhaps upto 50% more RAM (if it's 16GB Lockhart vs 24GB Anaconda and PS5).
Console sales means nothing these days, the field has extended beyond consoles, Consoles are a small and contracting metric of success. If the Xbox platform has 40 Million Xbox Consoles, 30 Million IOS users, 40 Million Android users and 20 Million Switch users etc. Microsoft will win the overall gaming over.
Why are purposely ignoring what I'm saying?
Like, yeah PSNow can be added to other devices, but they took it away from tvs! Plus I said they can andress disadvantages, but as if now they have not, this is a fact.
Gamepass is not an advantage right now? So what is it then, is it benifiting Sony and not benifiting Microsoft?
The success gamepass is having shows that it will continue to grow, It makes no sense to think this model will shrink when nothing is indicating that.
Same for the companies they buy? Yeah its not like the companies they have bought have no released games we can see to give us an indication of what they produce in the future....
That's like saying we don't know how TLOU2 or sucker punches Ghosts will turn out.
Yeah I said they have they have very strong first party, and I agree there brand is strong.
The advantages I gave were not speculative. But like I also said I don't know how it will play out, its not like I'm saying MS will dominate.
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Sony might feel more threatened by Microsoft's streaming efforts if the latter were more consistent in the quality of their output. It's not like Sony hasn't had their own software troubles this gen, but they're on a roll and it's hard to look at what they have coming up and see much chance of things going terribly wrong.
By having their world wide appeal that is like, 100x more important than any of these points? Also PS4 BC which will ensure PS4 users will go with the PS5, and sequels like horizon 2 or the next GoW or spiderman 2 where the fan base is already so invested that there is no way the players won't want to jump on the ps5 to continue the stories of these characters.
Actually, Microsoft is simply going to place Xbox Servers into their Azure data centers, it's a much easier task compared to Sony where they have to build data centers themselves. Amazon, IBM etc probably aren't willing to waste land space for Sony.
We have no idea what sort of timeframe we're looking at for the rollout of xCloud to various devices and countries. We know Sony originally wanted PS Now on just as many devices, but obviously that plan got cut short. With 5G now becoming a reality out they could very well roll out PS Now to just as many devices/countries as xCloud, maybe even faster. For all we know xCloud could heavily focus on the USA and UK for its initial debut and the rest of the world could come sometime later.
Not to mention we still have yet to see xCloud perform in a real world situation to say if it's performance is worse, equal to or better than what we get with PS Now.
Offering Gamepass to other platform doesn't guaranteed success , atleast with current offering . this other users doesn't have same hardware as console ( not you switch ) .
it will take a long time to gear up for that level , the moment maybe MS will only offer service , not console. but for Next Gen , a big nope.
PSNow is already running on amazon and Google servers in certain regions.
Andrew House said this years ago before the beta launch
Where are people getting this info that Lockhart is anything more than a streaming box? I thought MS plan was to have an extremely inexpensive streaming box ($99 or so) along side a traditional powerful console (probably $499 at launch)...? Two SKUs targeting entirely different consumers.
Having two Xbox's whose only meaningful differentiating feature is a few teraflops of performance is an absolutely awful launch strategy. Maybe 3-4 years after launch but even then Phil Spencer said they are not interested in getting in the habit of mid gen refreshes and that One X was a unique situation.
My guess, a super cheap streaming box (no disc drive and hardware soley built for a strong internet connection) and a 12+ TF traditional console.
Having two Xbox's whose only meaningful differentiating feature is a few teraflops of performance is an absolutely awful launch strategy. Maybe 3-4 years after launch but even then Phil Spencer said they are not interested in getting in the habit of mid gen refreshes and that One X was a unique situation.
My guess, a super cheap streaming box (no disc drive and hardware soley built for a strong internet connection) and a 12+ TF traditional console.
Such a profound contribution to the thread discussion. You deserve a medal.
Well, MS has enjoyed the benefit of two platforms already this gen, I.e. Xbox and PC, and yet Sony is making a lot more money than them.
The idea that console hardware sales aren't important for an industry that revolves around console games, is more than a little misguided.
Both Sony and MS leverage third party back end server infrastructure that they contract out to use. MS isn't building nor do they own massive data centres in every practical location in the world that their network services. Fundamentally, I don't really see how it makes any difference from a consumer perspective.
Do you really think gamers are gonna be like, "I'm buying Xbox because live runs on an Azure server closer to my location"? It's a fairly irrelevant fact to the consumer.
I have no idea what's going to happen but I know looking to the past to predict the future of this industry has made fools of many over the years. Gaming enthusiasts have had their consensus shoved into a crow pie and force fed back to them so many times over the years that I don't even try to predict this shit anymore. All that I'm hoping for is a decently powerful PS5 for exclusives and PC components that will allow me to easily blow by those PS5 specs for under $1,500 for all of the rest of the games. I don't particularly care what Nintendo does power-wise as I'm used to them being behind the curve.
Lockhart is meant to be the lower-spec'd traditional console. Anaconda the higher spec'd traditional console.
The cheap streaming console, which still needs some amount of local compute power in the box, but relies mostly on xCloud to do most of the processing/rendering, is something that is not 100% certain to become an actual retail product. I think it probably will, but less is known about the actual configuration of the device.
The cheap streaming console, which still needs some amount of local compute power in the box, but relies mostly on xCloud to do most of the processing/rendering, is something that is not 100% certain to become an actual retail product. I think it probably will, but less is known about the actual configuration of the device.
It's still an advantage to have a game streaming service on more platforms.
And as of now we know
Sony is taking away platforms from PSNow (tvs)
And MS wants Xcloud to be everywhere.
These are just facts, I don't see why there is disagreement on this.
I will be my avatar that Xcloud will perform just as well as PSNow.
I mean come on, MS have there own data centres, you would of thought they would of learnt a thing or two.
Yes they took it away but we also have better internet than we had back then .
Your problem is it seem you have no idea what a advantage is .
How can Sony address Xcloud when it is not even out and there service up and running .
MS bought Halo and Gear IP and right now there are at there weakness with the companies that making them .
So them buying new companies don't tell us how there games\ new IP going to sell .
ND has a track record over last 10 years and sales to back it up.
SP games have a okay record but that don't means Ghost going to be a big new IP or good since they don't have track record like ND .
The people that MS buy have to prove there self .
Just like how GG had to prove there self with HZD that they could make a ARPG and it end up being a big hit.
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Eh... he didn't quite say Anaconda will be made to match. He wasn't even talking in absolutes there. It was more of a theoretical statement used as context for the Lockhart being the cheaper option..
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Exactly, some people here don't realize that the one who needs to prov themselves to the consumers right now are MS, not Sony. Just putting their services everywhere does not mean everyone will use it. In fact so far the numbers that we have for gamepass and the fact MS continues on doing these 1$ promotions shows that right now it is not a profitable service for MS.
My spec predictions based on latest Brad Sams news
Lockhart
8 core Zen at ~3.0 ghz, 16 threads, 7nm+ chiplet
12GB of GDDR6 on 192-bit bus, 330gb/s, 14/16nm IO chiplet, 3GB reserved for OS
40 CU at 1200 mhz, 6.15 teraflops, 7nm+ chiplet
Anaconda
8 core Zen at >3.0 ghz, 16 threads, 7nm+ chiplet
24GB of GDDR6 on 384-bit bus, 640gb/s, 14/16nm IO chiplet, 4GB reserved for OS, 1GB extra for full 4k buffer for OS.
60 CU at 1600 mhz, 12.3 teraflops, 7nm+ chiplet
Both Lockhart and Anaconda will share the same Zen and IO chiplet. Both of them will have binned CPU and GPU. The most stable and robust Zen + GPU chiplets will be in the server racks.
Lockhart
8 core Zen at ~3.0 ghz, 16 threads, 7nm+ chiplet
12GB of GDDR6 on 192-bit bus, 330gb/s, 14/16nm IO chiplet, 3GB reserved for OS
40 CU at 1200 mhz, 6.15 teraflops, 7nm+ chiplet
Anaconda
8 core Zen at >3.0 ghz, 16 threads, 7nm+ chiplet
24GB of GDDR6 on 384-bit bus, 640gb/s, 14/16nm IO chiplet, 4GB reserved for OS, 1GB extra for full 4k buffer for OS.
60 CU at 1600 mhz, 12.3 teraflops, 7nm+ chiplet
Both Lockhart and Anaconda will share the same Zen and IO chiplet. Both of them will have binned CPU and GPU. The most stable and robust Zen + GPU chiplets will be in the server racks.
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Similar to my current predictions, but won't the ram have to be more Similar?
Something like 20gb for the lockhart and 24gb for the anaconda?
Why would you have more VRAM reserved for OS on a faster console model?
What's the point of having half/double memory bandwidth between the two if they are targeted at 1080p/4K which are 4X one from another?
Why do you need an I/O chiplet if there's only one APU with a custom design there?
What's the point of having half/double memory bandwidth between the two if they are targeted at 1080p/4K which are 4X one from another?
Why do you need an I/O chiplet if there's only one APU with a custom design there?
I'm not disputing that PS Now has grown smaller in scale since its launch and is on fewer devices, but I can also extrapolate a likely course for it from here. Why didn't it spread on mobile? Because 4G just wasn't up to the task. That should be rectified now with 5G so it shouldn't be too long before we see it on Android and iOS. And if it's on Android then at the very least that means it can also be on Sony's TVs that run Android. Why hasn't PS Now spread to a lot more countries in the last few years? Because it would have required a large investment in PS4 and PS3 hardware to fill up those data centers. If their plan was to make PS5 hardware a one size fits all solution then it does make sense why the service has been relatively small in scope both in terms of supported devices and geographically. Filling the world with data centers full of PS4 and PS3 hardware would've been a pretty big waste in the long term if they were just going to be replaced by PS5 hardware.
As for xCloud, I believe in one of these threads someone mentioned the xCloud servers would be using Xbone S hardware (at least for now, no doubt they'd upgrade to next gen just like Sony would). I'm going to guess that will limit the resolution the service could stream at since not all games can run at 1080p on the hardware. We don't know if they'll stick to 720p like PS Now or not yet. Now personally when I tried the PS Now free trial I had absolutely no problems. Everything ran perfectly with no glitches, stutters or anything. So the tech works in the real world. I'm sure xCloud will also work well in the real world, but they have yet to actually prove it. It could be worse, equal to or better than PS Now, I just find it odd to automatically assume it'll be superior when it's still unproven.
And yeah, I know I'm making some big assumptions above, but I think both sides are doing that. Until MS details their actual plans for rolling out xCloud and we can get real people using it in their homes I can't list it as an advantage over PS Now which is already servicing millions of people. Heck, we don't even know xClouds price structure yet. There're a lot of unknowns with the service, just like there're a lot of unknowns with PS Now's future expansion plans.
I think its pretty obvious that Xcloud will be at least as good as PSNow. The vast majority think this.
But the quality of the streaming was not the reasoning why I'm saying Xcloud will be supperior.
Im saying it will be superior because MS have made it clear they want it on as many platforms as possible and Sony have done the opposite, your entitled to think Sony will change but these are the facts.
Also the way Phil described Xcloud in a recent major Nelson podcast describes Xcloud like it accessing you xbox account + content from a mobile device, Phil did this on his holiday its not fictional its real.
Yeah, I think we'd just be going around in circles if we kept up this discussion. I'm gonna take the wait and see approach in a case like this.
Company executive talks up new service. Did he experience any noticeable lag? Stutters? Crashes? If he did would he have told us? I'm sorry but I'd prefer to wait for actual real world results.
PS4 build costs were less than $399. Several teardown sites found the overall costs was around $381. So they were probably breaking even or close to it. Definitely not losing $50 to $100 on the BOM as some say they were or as some here expect Sony will be willing to with the PS5 (pure fantasy if you think they are going that route). Now if you take into consideration the development, shipping, advertising etc and of course the very slim profit a seller (a few bucks for Amazon, Gamestop) then yes they took a hit on each console sale. But, on the hardware build side, at $399 PS4's were sold for more than sum of its parts from the very start.
http://allthingsd.com/20131119/teardown-shows-sonys-playstation-4-costs-381-to-build/
I thought vega hits scaling limits way before 64CU so even 56-64 aren't efficient use of die space as AMD needed to push the power right up and get diminishing returns?
Not sure what the bottleneck is in the architecture but they IMO need to break 64CU and need to do it *efficiently*
Not sure what the bottleneck is in the architecture but they IMO need to break 64CU and need to do it *efficiently*
I'm sorry I forgot to mention that the reason I mentioned phils accounts of using the service because its sounds better then what PSNow is.
PSNow does not let you access your accounts content.
But your not going to agree, so have a good one.
Of course it is yet to be seen how xCloud will actually perform.... But as far as what the actual service offers, if they let you access and stream your day one paid digital content (not just first party games), then that alone will make the service better.
PS4, Pro, and PSVR all released at roughly 400 USD because of the 4, obviously. ;) Hence 500 USD PS5. The Radeon VII did it, AMD APU in PS5, theory confirmed.
Why wouldn't I agree? That's certainly a nice feature and it would be a good move if PS Now allows for the same thing.
I'm just trying to advise caution when so little is known about xClouds service. Price? How many titles it will let you access? When will it come to different devices? Which countries will it come to and when? Wait for actual information and even some real world performance reviews before declaring a winner is all I'm saying.
It almost feels like some are arguing that xCloud has defeated PS Now without firing a single shot. That is not the case. There are far too many unknowns to be able to claim its a superior offering.
This is from a recent major Nelson podcast:
"Phil Spencer: I was, I don't mind saying, I was in Hawaii for a little while and I had my device and I'm playing and it's cool because when I'm doing it, I'm just on Xbox Live. Like I'm getting the same toast pop-ups, people inviting me to parties and stuff. Like to anybody else in the service, I'm just playing.
Larry Hyrb: You're just playing.
Phil Spencer: And I'm playing this game-
Larry Hyrb: That's the way it should be.
Phil Spencer: That's the way it should be. That's right kinda a ... So I am as much a part of the Xbox community in that context as I am when I'm sitting down in front of my X-
Larry Hyrb: Regardless of what device you're on or where you are"
So it sounds like you have all the xbox live features enabled and does sound like that it works kinda like how remote play worked for the psp/psvita, where you access all your content tied to your Microsoft account.
Indeed, the S is half the year on sale and it's being outsold 2x1 in the US so price alone won't do the trick.
It will be very hard to convinced current PS4 owners to jump ships, especially any of them that own digital games or that have played any of the Sony first party games and wants to play the sequels.
It could entice those who got a PS4 just to play Fortnite though, or in the medium/long run any PS5 owner who wants a companion sku to play MS first party games like Halo etc
This is false. There is no ability for AWS and Google servers to run ps3 and ps4 games. You might be able to use a windows container to emulate ps1 + ps2 games, but certainly not for ps3 games.
For psnow, ps3 games are serviced via on custom server racks with 8 x ps3 hardware. https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-2014-sony-creates-custom-ps3-for-playstation-now
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Well, its superior to be on more devices.
So if that don't change good luck PSNow.
20GB means a weird bus setup. A non-4k console can get away using Scorpio level textures and render buffers and use far less video memory.
I would of thought when devs have 24gb to play with they may need like 12gb just for there game to work.
"Got cut short" that is BS. They purposely pulled back to protect the PS4. You might get away from believing that cut it short with how they dropped DVD players and a few smart TVs but dropping the PS3 is directly tied into protecting their PS4 console and nothing more than that. If Sony continues to protect their console over expanding the presence of PSNow they will have no chance against Microsoft or even Google's plans (or Amazon). They can't play favorites if they want to compete in the near future. They had 4 years to themselves but, more than likely, in less then 18 months time there may be two to three very large competitors with very large cloud infrastructures with very deep pockets streaming games with a take no prisoners attitude.
Couple all this with the additional history of how Sony has supported current gen games on PSNow it has nothing to do with cutting short or not being able to do certain things because 5G was not here but about support of content. Contrary to PSNow, Microsoft has shown with GP they are willing to support their own service with their first-party games on release day along with a growing list of third-party either released on the service a few months after hitting the market (e.g. Shadow of Tomb Raider, Life is Strange 2) or 0-day as well not to mention a broad range of games released in the last two years. Whereas Sony has shown very little interest in supporting their own service with their PS4 first-party games (the last count it was a few first-party games from 2013 or early 2014 and small PS4 platformer) and most games from the PS4 in the catalog are just older games (come on 4 versions of F1 simulator 2014-2017 but not a single MLB The show a first party game released every year). So unless Sony is willing to take a similar approach and actually support PSNow with recent games along with their own first-party games (not 5 years after they were released) then the only advantage PSNow will have is that will be the only one that will be playable from a PS and nothing more.
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