Yup!
I just looked at Controls numbers and it sold 2 million copies ( including discounts) in 2 years with a budget of 36 million USD and still made good money.
I don't see Returnal teams targets any more ambitious than Controls imo. I expect the budget to be similar to those numbers if not less.
I think Control is a difficult comparison because they also had the advantage (in terms of getting out of the red) with...
Epic exclusivity deal (a rumoured $10.5 million)
PlayStation marketing deal/exclusive DLC
PS Now deal
Game Pass deal
PS+ deal
They absolutely rinsed every avenue of 'how can we monetise this game beyond just sales'. Obviously a Sony first party game like Returnal isn't cutting deals with Game Pass or Epic (well, probably not) or getting money back - from themselves - for putting the game on PS Now or PS+. If Control did will and made good money, I'd hazard a guess that it was a decent mixture of sales and being helped by the amount of money they took from virtually everyone giving it for exclusivity and subscription deals.