I made this map in Microsoft Paint about a decade ago (hence why Michigan and Pennsylvania aren't swing states, and Virginia and Colorado are). If Canada joins the U.S. it's very difficult for a Republican to win the Presidency again. This map was made assuming Canada joins as one state, instead of of the 10 provinces becoming 10 new states. If the 10 provinces did become individual states it would mean upwards of 20 new Democratic Senators and more electoral votes, enough electoral votes to not need any midwestern swing state to win (Virginia or Colorado would be enough).
It depends on what kind of right wing social policies you would still classify as "conservative" though. Racism and xenophobia I would not call conservative, even though these are considered conservative by many US citizens - and acceptable positions in the political discourse. Favouring traditional family structures (if you are a German, remember the discussion about "Herdprämie") or less accepting views on homsexuality (e.g. voting against gay marriage, as a good portion of the German conservatives have done) are not unconstitutional in Germany either, and are considered conservative positions. In fact, we currently even have discussion on whether it should be allowed to resuce people who are about to drown while trying to migrate to Germany, with the former head of the part of German intelligence watching over the constitution, Maaßen, going full Trump in that regard:
Yeah, it wouldn't be so simple, but the basic premise still holds, when the pluses and minuses are added up it would still be a substantial benefit to Democrats on election day. Democrats would take the vast majority of Canada's electoral votes no matter how the lines are drawn.
Let's wait for AZ to turn Blue so we can join. Thanks! Hopefully 2020.
with electoral reform falling through thou means we gotta vote strategically
I imagine if Canada is ever peacefully admitted into the United States, it'll be because Democrats have the Presidency and Congress. New states can be admitted by a simple Congressional majority. The Democratic President offers a treaty to the Canadians on favorable terms for Democrats (10 new states or even 1 big state), the Canadians accept, then the Democratic Congress approves on a party-line vote and Republicans never had a say in the process at all. This avoids an 1800's-style grand compromise that you outlined where existing states get split up and Canada's lines get drawn in favorable terms for Republicans.
| Percentage | 46.1% | 48.2% |
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| Percentage | 40.50% | 33.59% |
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