Would his voters necessarily go to Warren though? As much as that makes sense ideologically to me, do we know where voters second choice preferences flow to?
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New Fox Poll (A+ pollster): Warren surges to second, Sanders drops to 10%.
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Would his voters necessarily go to Warren though? As much as that makes sense ideologically to me, do we know where voters second choice preferences flow to?
His second choice voters go to Biden.
A lot of people meme Bernie as this ultra-left candidate only extremely online leftist millennials support but his support base actually has a lot in common with Biden's support base: Working class whites who take comfort in Presidents who're old white men.
You guys who say Bernie should drop out to bump Warren are wild. All it would do is make Biden even more untouchable.
Yes, America is racist.
Yes, America is sexist.
Yes, America is moderate.
Yes, racist moderate Americans like white male presidents.
BERNIE IS A WHITE MAN. THIS IS A KEY INSIGHT I THINK SOME PEOPLE FORGOT. The reasons Biden are stronger than Bernie electorally are these: Obama, and "socialism". Why don't Biden's second choice go to O'Rourke or Buttigieg? Because both of those candidates are very young by presidential standards. Some of you seem to have forgotten that old, white, moderate, low-key racist, American voters RESPECT AGE.
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Everyone below Buttigieg should drop out. We'd have a field of 5- a centrist, 2 liberals, and 2 leftists. I care about the leftists- Bernie and Warren. I'd be happy with either getting the nom, but want to see how their numbers are without all the pretenders distorting things since we don't have ranked choice.
Anyone who talks about Bernie dropping out at this point is suspect. At worst he's 3rd of 20+ candidates. If he should drop out, so should Harris, Buttigeig, O'Rourke and everyone else, and leave it as a contest between Biden and Warren.
Anyone who talks about Bernie dropping out at this point is suspect. At worst he's 3rd of 20+ candidates. If he should drop out, so should Harris, Buttigeig, O'Rourke and everyone else, and leave it as a contest between Biden and Warren.
His second choice voters go to Biden.
A lot of people meme Bernie as this ultra-left candidate only extremely online leftist millennials support but his support base actually has a lot in common with Biden's support base: Working class whites who take comfort in Presidents who're old white men.
You guys who say Bernie should drop out to bump Warren are wild. All it would do is make Biden even more untouchable.
Ok so that's from February and Warren has had a good few months campaigning, so assuming her appeal to Sanders voters has improved that's still a really big problem since even if she got 100% of Sanders support from this poll, Biden would still be ahead.
Biden's support really has to erode of its own volition for Warren or Sanders to have a chance. Fingers crossed.
2020 Democratic Primary
morningconsult.com
Nope, she still has more work to do, she can benefit a lot from Harris and Buttigieg dropping out but very little from Bernie dropping out.
It is getting closer though:
2020 Democratic Primary
Nope, she still has more work to do, she can benefit a lot from Harris and Buttigieg dropping out but very little from Bernie dropping out.
Thanks for the link!
Edit; I see what you mean, her best bet would be for Harris and Buttigieg to drop out, and for Bernie to play spoiler to Biden.
I edited in the actual split. If Bernie drops, he would give Biden as much support as he would give Warren. Warren has nothing to gain from Bernie dropping. Bernie, Harris and Buttigieg all need to drop for Warren to get a net gain over Biden, but I don't know if it would push her over the top.
They both pull from the liberal / very liberal part of the primary electorate. They compete within it, taking complementary parts of it. But it doesn't mean they're appeal is particularly complementary as a GE ticket.
Yes, Sanders has some old white man name recognition pull from Biden from Dems who are prioritising (false notions of) electability during the primary. But if that's the rationale she should just pick Biden for VP.
Yes, Sanders has some old white man name recognition pull from Biden from Dems who are prioritising (false notions of) electability during the primary. But if that's the rationale she should just pick Biden for VP.
I'm all for either Warren or Sanders as president, but neither makes sense as VP for any candidate. Including each other.
They would both benefit from someone younger of the opposite gender
They would both benefit from someone younger of the opposite gender
If she can't come up with some fire material to beat that, she shouldn't be president. You have to be prepared to counter attacks from your opponent.
They already did, my dude. It was an EC problem not a numbers problem
Good that at least right now, the more progressive 2 are at the top of it.
What i think will happen is that either Sanders or Warren will drop out and endorse the other, depending on who is doing better when the time comes. I just wonder when that time will be.
I think (and hope) Sanders will come out on top in the end, but we shall see. I think with a surprising (to some...) youth turnout, things will be looking good by this time next year.
What i think will happen is that either Sanders or Warren will drop out and endorse the other, depending on who is doing better when the time comes. I just wonder when that time will be.
I think (and hope) Sanders will come out on top in the end, but we shall see. I think with a surprising (to some...) youth turnout, things will be looking good by this time next year.
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True. Im looking forward to the thread with the single poll showing Sanders in the lead, and then setting a timer until said thread is locked.
People complaining about "single poll" are ignoring that it's a poll from a good pollster in a field of other polls all showing the same trend.
All that matters is how popular he is in the five states that matter...
Which is why I still worry that Biden is the best choice, but she's been awesome since this primary started and is definitely my personal choice.
In which he is... underwater, considerably.
-14 Wisconsin
-11 Michigan
-8 Pennsylvania
In which he is... underwater, considerably.
-14 Wisconsin
-11 Michigan
-8 Pennsylvania
Good to know, assuming that polling has vastly improved in these states since 2016. I recall Clinton being up big in WI and MI up to election night
Trump's campaign should be shitting bricks if these numbers hold.
I think the concerns that Warren wouldn't get much support in the Midwest are completely unfounded. The reason she's surging is specifically because she's been out there busting her ass in places like Iowa, selling rural and working class white voters on a better way forward. People hear her talk and pick up what she puts down. That's her strength, someone with immense experience with legislation, but also how to wrap it a package that's easily digestible to voters. Here's my plan. Here's what it means. Here's why it works for you.
I actually think VP might be a good fit for someone like Beto. A mostly figurehead position might be something he'd excel in. I'm talking about standing-on-tables-in-cafes Beto or telling-reporters-to-fuck-off Beto though, not debate Beto. A Warren/O'Rourke ticket sounds sexy as hell to me. He'd do great things for Texas turnout too with him on the top of the ballot.
Give a cabinet position to the other candidates who are polling decently. Give a cabinet position to Inslee, even though he isn't polling decently. Tell the rest of the also-rans to run for Senate instead. Put Grandpa Joe in a nice retirement home.
I actually think VP might be a good fit for someone like Beto. A mostly figurehead position might be something he'd excel in. I'm talking about standing-on-tables-in-cafes Beto or telling-reporters-to-fuck-off Beto though, not debate Beto. A Warren/O'Rourke ticket sounds sexy as hell to me. He'd do great things for Texas turnout too with him on the top of the ballot.
Give a cabinet position to the other candidates who are polling decently. Give a cabinet position to Inslee, even though he isn't polling decently. Tell the rest of the also-rans to run for Senate instead. Put Grandpa Joe in a nice retirement home.
Kinda, she was in striking distance of MoE (or in MoE), and the issue is most polls didn't capture the true impact of Comey's letter till after the election.
She was losing ground in the last few weeks, but the Comey letter accelerated her losses to an extreme and gave Trump a huge share of late deciding voters.
I think going on Rogan likely hurt Bernie. No progressive watches/listens to Rogan. He is a racist.
Yeah, Trump's brand is toast. He got elected because a lot of folks (not his base, which is no where near enough to even sniff the EC victory he got) thought he'd be the ultimate passionless pragmatist who would run the country like a business but he's behaved extremely emotional and has no vision for the future. What's his plan for the next 4 years? He hasn't put forth anything. Not surprised it's getting worse.
Nah that's mostly the era bubble talking(it was trending 1 YouTube for a while. The reception from people who watched it were positive. If anything it allowed Bernie to talk about the issues in America for an 1:30, and explain his positions. It makes no sense to use one poll to come to that conclusion. I was actually surprised how smooth it went, and as someone that doesn't want to do over again he comes off as stupid. But the interview was pretty innocent.
This is pretty much how I feel, I truly think Trump's going to flop during the debates. Outside of his base no one's going to look at him positively, he's achieved nothing great. I also think a lot of Americans are probably tired of hearing about him.
They already did, the vagaries of the electoral college did for her though. I've no doubt America is ready to vote in a woman president.
I wouldn't say "vastly", but Warren's base skews white/educated/rich while Bernie's base is more multi-cultural/some college/lower-middle class.
Reducing them both down to "old white NE" underestimates their synergy.
Buttigieg is a better partner on the Age & Gender axis.
Kamala is a better partner on the Race & Education axis.
Bernie is her only good partner on the Income axis.
2020 Democratic Primary
Nope, she still has more work to do, she can benefit a lot from Harris and Buttigieg dropping out but very little from Bernie dropping out.
It is getting closer though:
reasons why the Bernie/Warren combo would be fire. you combine the coalitions of the top 4 candidates (biden goes to sanders second, sanders is sanders, warren is warren, and harris goes to warren second) and you get broad electoral appeal across age, gender, race, class, and education. you appease some of the Never Berners with Warren, you get independents, and you have a broadly appealing message that speaks to the concerns of all Americans.
Mueller Probe did its damage, true. But the last year, it's been his anchor. It's been a rallying cry that he could use to make him look victimized and discredit media coverage of him while distracting from the fact he's not actually doing any work. "NO COLLUSION" "NO OBSTRUCTION" he could lie about it just like that. I'm so glad we moved past that. Now, the focus is not on what he did, but what he is doing. A month ago, Trump had his 'best week ever' when Mueller testified. Since the party more or less signaled they are moving on, the brand of his presidency is falling apart. He has no vision or goals. He tried to lean into super racism in desperation, and it led to a Trump Terrorist killing inspired by his racism. The timing is no coincidence. Now, he's trying to buy fucking GREENLAND because he has no idea what to do. We're never gonna squeeze a W out of that lemon, but since then, it's been non-stop Ls for Trump simply because we are finally paying attention in the media to the Ls he takes every, single, day.
If there's a poll with Sanders in the lead, go ahead and make a thread for it. No one's stopping you.
This "era hates bernieeeeeee" whining is getting obnoxious. He was nearly tied with Warren in the poll someone did a few days (weeks?) ago.
Trump's "wins" as President have amounted to cutting taxes and putting a rapist on the court.
His re-election promises are just doing the shit he already promised he'd do in his first term. Getting the wall. Repealing Obamacare and replacing it with "something terrific," which they STILL haven't figured out because there is no way you can go right on healthcare policy and cover more people.
This is around the time someone chimes in "but he'll never lose his base!" and yes, that's true. That's also why he doesn't do any better than 39% in this Fox News poll (a poll that's, you know, sponsored by what is at this point state-run media). 39% is a lot but that would be utterly disastrous for a presidential candidate. McCain vs. Obama is often considered a blowout and McCain still got 46%. 39% is Walter Mondale numbers, and that guy at least was going up against a popular incumbent.
Like has been pointed out (including by myself), winning the overwhelming support of people who hated both him and the Democrat was his ticket in during the 2016 campaign, but that's completely backfired on him this time. Biden is winning voters who dislike both Biden and Trump 43-10. If the numbers look like this at all next year he's going to need the Russians to literally change the numbers for him.
They are the closest two candidates to each other in terms of policy sets. If you love warren, then Bernie shouldn't be a problematic candidate. We should be so lucky as to have either of them as the nominee. We could certainly do worse. Being THRILLED that Bernie is sliding in support makes no sense for a Warren supporter at this stage in the primary. Once Biden is gone, feel free to get nasty, but he's the problem for Bernie or Warren right now. Not each other
Well, it also makes no sense for Biden to be the second choice amongst the majority of Bernie supporters, but here we are. The only reason is the obvious one.
I'm already a Sanders supporter so doesnt matter but I watch Rogan sometimes. Just depends on the guest. Anyway no it didn't hurt at all. I'm sure a vast majority of those who were concerned about the interview hate Sanders anyway. It helped immensely imo. There were tons of comments from republicans basically saying they were glad to hear about the real Bernie Sanders and how he's changed their minds. The video is nearing 9 million views and the comments are like a breath of fresh air considering they are Youtube comments. There's a ton of positivity toward him there.
I think with a lot of these polls people will be surprised when the time comes both because of youth turn out and because a lot of these pollsters will poll democrats or "likely democratic voters" and such. I don't believe (though I dont know) that they (in the general sense, not this poll in particular) are taking into account people that voted Trump and now realize they were duped. I think quite a number of them would support Sanders. Possibly Warren as well though.
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I agree with that but it still means we need to focus on eliminating Biden first then we can sort out our differences with Bernie/Warren
It's just one poll so I wouldn't sweat it. Even then, she is the next best thing.
Only in the support base is there even a rivalry between the two.
Even if it's from Elle, any The Office references gets my approval.
He's leading her in many other recent polls. You must be disappointed.
It's quite simple, really:
Warren isn't an ass who says gender/racially tone deaf things.
Sometimes it's just a simple answer
Yeah this gets old quick and it's 90% from the usual suspects that just can't stand Sanders. I'm reading the thread and I see almost all Sanders supporters here also like Warren. Meanwhile a bunch of the apparent Warren supporters just cant stand Bernie. Nevermind that they're extremely similar on nearly everything. Nevermind what's actually for the good of the country because fuck Bernie Sanders for reasons.
It's irritating.
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Yeah the fake progressives on this site are repugnant trash spectacles that can't help showing their asses at ever turn.
It's pretty obvious now, to be honest it not even worth it to call it out anymore because all they're going to say is we have a persecution complex. some people see Bernie as a sexist and racist and yet he seems to poll really well with women and minorities. And as you said every person who supported Bernie in here has also said they supported/will support Warren myself included. I'm not going to let those people control the narrative tho I'm still team progressive.