• Light/Dark
  • Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.
  • We have made minor adjustments to how the search bar works on ResetEra. You can read about the changes here.

New Coronavirus model projects 201,129 deaths in US by October

Armadilo

Armadilo

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
9,877
Article

A closely watched model that predicts Covid-19 deaths is now forecasting there will be more than 201,000 deaths in the United States by October 1.

The projections continue to show that the fall is going to be difficult, with a sharp rise in daily deaths forecast in September and October.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Last week, the model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, predicted 170,000 deaths for this same time period. The model was often cited by the White House early in the pandemic and is one of 19 models currently featured on the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website.

As of today, the model projects that 201,129 people will die from Covid-19 in the US by October 1, with a possible range of 171,551 to 269,395 deaths. Ali Mokdad, one of the model's creators, said they've raised the number of projected deaths for two reasons.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

"Increased mobility and premature relaxation of social distancing led to more infections and we see it in Florida, Arizona, and other states. This means more projected deaths," Mokdad told CNN in an email. "The second part is that we are now projecting to October 1st, which means that an increase in this wave will results in our starting point for the second wave (more seeding), so the second wave will be higher and we are capturing parts of that. Remember second wave starts at the end of August early September."
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

We are already at almost 120,000 deaths in the US
 
III-V

III-V

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,827
I believe it. I remember early models predicting 250k deaths before end of year, IIRC. And Florida will lead the way.
 
HomerSimpson-Man

HomerSimpson-Man

Member
Oct 30, 2017
3,629
That's being conservative when you consider all the excess deaths, especially those attributed to "influenza" deaths, we could be already near 200,000 if included and even if you could truly give all those deaths to influenza, it would make it the worse flu season in decades in terms of overall deaths and this is when we are out of flu season, alongside Covid-19 deaths.
 
Tsuyu

Tsuyu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,638
It probably have already well exceeded this figure given the absurd amount of excess death elsewhere compared to 5 years average.

Numbers are fudged.

That said, it's ridiculous to ask people to take a corona hit for Team Economy just so Donny can have a shot in Nov. election.
 
Nothing Loud

Nothing Loud

Literally Cinderella
Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,987
I wouldn't be surprised if we hit 500k - 1 million US deaths before a vaccine is widespread in the US (mid to late next year). 200k by October is not surprising. God what a stupid leadership in this country
 
Saucycarpdog

Saucycarpdog

Member
Oct 25, 2017
16,356
The number of cases is already skyrocketing in dozens of states. And we haven't had a second wave yet.

I believe it'll go over 300k.
 
Wrexis

Wrexis

Member
Nov 4, 2017
21,250
That's the population of certain US cities like Santa Clarita, Salt Lake City, Baton Rouge. Or in the UK Oxford, Aberdeen.

Scary.
 
perfectchaos007

perfectchaos007

It's Happening
Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,246
Texas
Tsuyu said:
It probably have already well exceeded this figure given the absurd amount of excess death elsewhere compared to 5 years average.

Numbers are fudged.

That said, it's ridiculous to ask people to take a corona hit for Team Economy just so Donny can have a shot in Nov. election.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Given we're still a year or so away from a widely available e vaccine, Biden will be tasked to handle the crises for several months as well. Hope he does the right thing
 
Wolf

Wolf

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,851
We are likely already at that number and just don't know it, to be honest.
 
ArkhamFantasy

ArkhamFantasy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,550
For all we know we're already at 200k, we aren't getting accurate death counts.

Some states like Florida are intentionally telling MEs not to give out accurate numbers, not counting deaths from people who don't have a permanent residence in the state, aren't testing deceased people for the virus, and chalking up much of the deaths as Pneumonia, don't be surprised if we see a huge increase in flu deaths this fall due to misdiagnosis.
 
SpottieO

SpottieO

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,618
Wasn't this model way way off earlier? Like predicting 70k deaths and now we're already at 100,000+
 
Last edited:
WhiteRabbitEXE

WhiteRabbitEXE

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,611
Arizona
That's over the "if we're between 100k-200k we did good" bullshit the White House was spewing. Anyone going to call them out when we hit it? Maybe in a debate? Or nah?
 
darkwing

darkwing

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,971
if you add the excess pneumonia related deaths over the annual average, the US is probably at 200k now
 
a916

a916

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,838
So when do the real numbers come out? Like well after the fact? There's a lot of excess deaths in the US that somehow aren't COVID but are alarmingly high and unaccounted for.
 
Foffy

Foffy

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
16,394
And this is year one.

Imagine if Trump gets reelected. We'll be seeing this every year until a vaccine, and one can even argue it won't be made to be affordable and thus become another American disease.
 
GoldenEye 007

GoldenEye 007

Roll Tide, Y'all!
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
13,833
Texas
a916 said:
So when do the real numbers come out? Like well after the fact? There's a lot of excess deaths in the US that somehow aren't COVID but are alarmingly high and unaccounted for.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Probably not going to be able to get legitimate analysis until a new federal admin is in. But even for now, excess deaths in general, and especially excess pneumonia deaths, should give a solid indication.
 
Garp TXB

Garp TXB

Member
Apr 1, 2020
6,300
WhiteRabbitEXE said:
That's over the "if we're between 100k-200k we did good" bullshit the White House was spewing. Anyone going to call them out when we hit it? Maybe in a debate? Or nah?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

He'll get called out, but it'll get lost in the muck like everything else and have little effect

On the other hand, considering his recent poll numbers that may be changing.
 
Lost Lemurian

Lost Lemurian

Member
Nov 30, 2019
4,297
Pennsylvania has been doing relatively well, but the push to re-open is picking up traction. I think we're in for a big jump in about a month.
 
JaseC64

JaseC64

Enlightened
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
11,008
Strong Island NY
And here I am dreading to find out my idiot relative who I live with is planning to go to FL in a few weeks for vacation. (Driving)

Some people are just so fucking dense. Newsflash there is no cure and you are planning to go to themeparks of all fucking time?!

I swear I'm gonna catch this shit one day not of my doing.
 
Strike

Strike

Member
Oct 25, 2017
27,364
It's insane to even think about. This alone would've ended a normal presidency.
 
Piston

Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,170
SpottieO said:
Wasn't this model way way off earlier? Like predicting 70k deaths and now we're already at 100,000+
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Yes. The article talks about it a bit, but this model originally assumed 70k projected deaths into June and then had the US literally going to 0 new deaths by the end of June.

It was assuming that there were hard social distancing measures still in place... which was a wrong assumption even before most of the restrictions had been lifted.
 
MattB

MattB

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
2,904
I'm visiting Florida right now from Massachusetts and it's crazy seeing this many people together... I can tell they are at the beginning of it getting crazy here. They are definitely the next hotspot.
 
ThiefofDreams

ThiefofDreams

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,481
After all the protests and states opening, I wouldnt be suprised if we weren't closer to a million.

(Not an indictment on protests, just a fear of the fallout)
 
MizneyWorld

MizneyWorld

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
446
Seems like a lifetime ago that Trump balked at the idea of even 15 people getting infected. Now we're at over 200,000 projected deaths...
 

Imperfected

Member
Nov 9, 2017
11,737
Guys, people aren't dying from COVID-19. They're dying from a Mystery Disease! COVID is COVID, but the Mystery Disease could be anything... it could even be COVID-19!

(Alt-Text: We'll keep the COVID-19 death count down by reclassifying it as COVID-20 in January.)
 
Mar Tuuk

Mar Tuuk

Member
Oct 31, 2017
2,566
Not surprised with the spikes in the southern states and the massive protests around the country. The virus knows no bounds
 
Brinbe

Brinbe

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
58,370
Terana
it's pretty wild how nobody is giving a shit when numbers are peaking.

it's really sad because the working poor will probably bear the brunt of it all
 
You must log in or register to reply here.