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RBH

Official ERA expert on Third Party Football
Member
Nov 2, 2017
32,867
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  • Date: Tuesday, May 14th
  • Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Location: Chicago, Illinois
  • TV channel: ESPN
  • Online streaming: WatchESPN



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What is the format for the Draft Lottery?

The NBA Board of Governors approved changes to the lottery system on Sept. 28, 2017 that will be implemented for the 2019 NBA Draft.

Under the revamped format, the NBA Draft Lottery will ensure that the team with the worst record will receive no worse than the fifth pick. Under the pre-2019 system, the team with the worst record would pick no lower than fourth.

The new system will level the odds at the top of the NBA Draft Lottery so that the teams with the three worst regular-season records will each have a 14 percent chance of winning the lottery. In the pre-2019 structure, the top seed had a 25 percent of winning the lottery, the second seed had a 19.9 percent and the third seed had a 15.6 percent.

The odds for the remaining participants in the 14-team lottery will be reduced gradually after the top three. For instance, the difference in lottery odds between the first three seeds (14 percent) and the fourth seed (12.5 percent) will be 1.5 percent. The difference between the fourth seed and the fifth seed (10.5 percent) will be 2 percent, and the difference between the fifth seed and the sixth seed (9 percent) will be 1.5 percent.

After drawings are conducted for the first four picks of the NBA Draft, the other lottery teams will continue to pick in inverse order of their regular-season record.

In an attempt to discourage teams from tanking, the league implemented a new set of lottery odds. Previously, the team with the worst record had a 25 percent chance at getting the top pick. Now, the teams with the three worst records all have an equal 14 percent chance at the top pick. Likewise, the odds were smoothed across the board, giving teams in the middle of the lottery a better chance at moving up into the top-four slots.

Additionally, the team with the worst record used to be guaranteed to receive no worse than the fourth pick. That was because the first three picks were the only ones determined by the lottery. After those picks, the remaining teams were ordered in the inverse of their regular season records. Now, the first four picks will be decided by the lottery draw. Thus, the team with the worst record will receive no worse than the fifth pick.


Who are the top prospects?

There's no question that the best prospect heading into the draft is Duke forward Zion Williamson. The 18-year-old was a viral sensation in his high school days, and became the best player in college basketball in his freshman season. Regardless of which team wins the No. 1 pick, he's expected to be the first player selected.
Beyond that, however, there are plenty of questions. Here are the top five players off the board in the most recent mock draft from CBS Sports' Kyle Boone:
  1. Zion Williamson -- F, Duke
  2. RJ Barrett -- F, Duke
  3. Ja Morant -- G, Murray State
  4. Coby White -- G, North Carolina
  5. De'Andre Hunter -- F, Virginia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5p_nM_xrww#t=2m51s

 

Cerium

The Former
Member
Oct 23, 2017
1,741
I hope he doesn't go to a trash organization.

Zion deserves better than the Knicks or Lakers.
 

bionic77

Member
Oct 25, 2017
30,888
As long as Zion doesn't go to the Cavs.

Obviously God wants him to go to the Lakers, but the world is a cruel and evil place and shit doesn't always go according to plan.
 

NinjaScooter

Member
Oct 25, 2017
54,123
As a Lakers fan I'm happy at 11 unless we get the #1 pick. This draft sucks and there are multiple players I like in the current range.


The teams without that mark are in ties record-wise.0

I think the Lakers pick is getting traded one way or another no matter where it lands.

If Lakers can't luck out I hope Cleveland gets it just for the fuckery.
 

Sandfox

Member
Oct 25, 2017
24,743
I kinda want the Suns to take Morant just so we can see their defense become even worse.
 

Gigglepoo

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,313
Rewarding the worst-run teams with the best players is socialism at its absolute worst. When I run for president next year, I'm going to campaign on health care for all and good NBA players only for good teams.
 

Sandfox

Member
Oct 25, 2017
24,743
Rewarding the worst-run teams with the best players is socialism at its absolute worst. When I run for president next year, I'm going to campaign on health care for all and good NBA players only for good teams.
Giving the best players to better teams would just make it extremely difficult for the bad teams to get better, while just keeping making the other teams even better.
 

Frozenprince

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
9,158
Seriously though I can't wait to have the worst record and pick like, 6th because even the other owners hate Dolan.
 

Gigglepoo

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,313
Giving the best players to better teams would just make it extremely difficult for the bad teams to get better, while just keeping making the other teams even better.

Yup! Why would teams like the Lakers and Suns get all the high picks? They're just wasting the careers of promising players. At the very least, all 30 teams should be in the lottery.
 

Sandfox

Member
Oct 25, 2017
24,743
Yup! Why would teams like the Lakers and Suns get all the high picks? They're just wasting the careers of promising players. At the very least, all 30 teams should be in the lottery.
Because we really need the Warriors getting the #1 pick and for the same teams to stay on top.

The lottery is flawed, but the bad teams need the higher picks more.
 

NinjaScooter

Member
Oct 25, 2017
54,123
Because we really need the Warriors getting the #1 pick and for the same teams to stay on top.

The lottery is flawed, but the bad teams need the higher picks more.

The bad teams should try not being bad instead of pinning that on 19-20 year olds. Stop rewarding incompetence. Half the damn league makes the playoffs, if you go multiple years without being able to do that you shouldn't have a franchise. The draft sucks. Abolish it, but barring that, at the very least every non-playoff team should have equal odds at all the picks.
 

Sandfox

Member
Oct 25, 2017
24,743
The bad teams should try not being bad instead of pinning that on 19-20 year olds. Stop rewarding incompetence. Half the damn league makes the playoffs, if you go multiple years without being able to do that you shouldn't have a franchise. The draft sucks. Abolish it, but barring that, at the very least every non-playoff team should have equal odds at all the picks.
The problem with this is that you need talent and cheap contracts to not be bad and without the young players it's pretty much impossible to put something together.
 

RandomSeed

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,613
We will find the next Steve Nash, the next Kawhi, the next Giannis at number 15 this year.

We are doing it Smurf RandomSeed phanphare

You pick the best talent, but Pistons going to draft another shooting guard. 😁

Going to be an interesting off season. If Bullock's "eh" performance in LA lowered his value, I'd like him back at the 3. Luke the starting 2, which leaves the point open when Reggie Jackson is traded. Rod Beard had article on possible pickups.
 

NinjaScooter

Member
Oct 25, 2017
54,123
The problem with this is that you need talent and cheap contracts to not be bad and without the young players it's pretty much impossible to put something together.

You also need good player development to do this, and it's no surprise the teams that are good at this aren't in the lottery for long. Teams that have 4-5 lottery picks on their roster and are still terrible should be forced to make some internal changes before more young players are sent there to rot.
 

Smurf

Member
Oct 25, 2017
26,532
teams I wish get the first pick

1 - Grizzlies
2 - Hawks
3 - Knicks
4 - Lakers
5 - Suns

Teams I really wish don't get the first pick

1 - Wizards
2 - Cavaliers
 
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Sandfox

Member
Oct 25, 2017
24,743
You also need good player development to do this, and it's no surprise the teams that are good at this aren't in the lottery for long. Teams that have 4-5 lottery picks on their roster and are still terrible should be forced to make some internal changes before more young players are sent there to rot.
Player dev is obviously important, but a lot of it comes down to scouting and luck as well. That's what really hurts many of these teams in addition to dumb decision making.