There's no strike coming. The players have no leverage and the guy with the gigantic contract that put up 3 WAR isn't convincing me
Like seriously Jake Arrieta knows nothing about baseball economics or management why are you listening to him
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MLB 2018-2019 Off Season |OT| Now welcoming postseason losers
- Thread starter GK86
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There's no strike coming. The players have no leverage and the guy with the gigantic contract that put up 3 WAR isn't convincing me
Like seriously Jake Arrieta knows nothing about baseball economics or management why are you listening to him
They don't have leverage. "Sign Manny Machado for $400mm" isn't negotiable term in a CBA and literally never will be.
The luxury tax doesn't actually matter because teams already pay negligible amounts of the tax and still don't go over it. The Yankees and Dodgers are the teams that are "screwing" the players because they actually could afford to pay an actual large tax they just don't want to.
Coming from Jake Arrieta, that's rich.
And I specially don't much care what a right wing trump supporting moron like Arrieta thinks about anything.
Next work stoppage should align with the Pads bringing back the brown and having the young talent start producing. Going to be quite the bummer. Cant blame the players though, the current system does not distribute revs fairly.
i didn't say anything about leverage or what will happen. just that jake is right about it being unfair. i don't exactly have a ton of sympathy for millionaire athletes, but it is unfair.
Players get 54 percent of revenue, salaries have skyrocketed since 1994. What more is there to give?
Plenty
- fix the service time issue
- raise league minimum salary
- raise luxury tax cap
- eliminate loopholes in revenue reporting
And or course the one issue that really needs solving is minor league pay, but the union doesnt care and Congress just approved below minimum wage levels of pay because everyone is terrible.
Those are issues that can be fixed without a work stoppage except for minor league pay, that I agree needs to be fixed ASAP.
Attendance and mindshare is already down among the public, there is no universe where people in 2019 are going to be sympathetic to millionaire players, none.
The issue is that there is a clear disconnect between what the players believe a "max" contract should be and what the owners think such a contract should be. Signing someone for 10 years is absolutely idiotic but some still expect that to be given to them like they're Giancarlo in Miami. Its not a problem in the NBA because of the specific equation that makes a definitive max contract value.
players have no idea of their real value. Teams are smarter now and are paying players more accurately. the main issue is the best players are under control by the teams and by the time they get to FA they are no longer the cream of the crop. So i'd say extend arbitration and then fix minor league pay. other than that, not sure what else to do. teams are not going to give out long term contracts to 30+ year olds.
He was in Keith Law's top 50 last season, though Law is concerned he basically missed an entire year of baseball development by playing football. He's got a lot of money already, and i believe he has to give it up if he doesn't report toe the A's, but if he's really looking at shot at being taken in the 1st round, as a QB, that's a lot of guaranteed money as well (for reference, Lamar Jackson, taken at the end of the 1st round, got around $10 million contract, QBs taken in the top 10-15 get closer to $20 million and up). He's going to get paid regardless, and chances of getting a huge 2nd contract are probably about even in both sports, so he should just pick the one he enjoys the most.
My question to fans who keep insisting a strike is coming is: Why would there be a strike and what negotiable CBA provision would do anything about it? A strike makes no sense. It's pyrrhic by nature, wouldn't cause the Yankees to offer Machado $400m and eliminating the CBT would do actual nothing. The Dodgers and Yankees are the teams "fucking the players" (by their own terms) but the players aren't gonna go after the teams actually have big payrolls. There is a reason the Dodgers and Yankees avoid paying the CBT despite it being proportionally a negligible amount of money. Strikes are in fact extremely bad for employees most of the time. I don't know where everyone got the idea the players have a specific thing to gain from a strike that exceeds what they would lose.
I don't even know how people keep thinking it's some kind of Baseball Cesar Chavez moment to "back up the screwed players" when the union screws everyone not actively in the union (meaning every MiLB player and foreign player) and even screws their own guys because they need to make sure increasingly ineffective old players like Arrieta get $75,000,000 meanwhile Ronald Acuna is gonna make league minimum this year despite probably being twice as good as Arrieta. The union does this to itself. When your negotiating position is entirely focused on free agency and getting the top 1% of players Machado money the owners are obviously the market inefficiency the players deliberately demand.
As a union they reflexively defend Free Agents over employed members of the union to their detriment all of the time.
Luxury Tax means nothing. There's only like 4 teams that are against it and they refuse to exceed it even though the tax itself is largely meaningless to their values.
League minimum salary goes up in every CBA, all of them that have ever existed, and sure they could fix the loopholes, but they likely don't care because the union doesn't give a fuck about players without significant service time.
I'm gonna go be depressed in a corner now. though I guess 8 years of pablo sandavol after he signed with the red sox is better than 10.
or hey, maybe I will be wrong, maybe despite the fact that machado has gone on record that trying hard really isn't the way he does things he won't just take the money, stop caring at all, and just coast until he can't hack it in the majors anymore :P
I wonder if it will have any opt outs after 3-4 years, not that it will matter, Machado will be around a .200 hitter by that point so won't opt out anyways :P
at least 8 years is better than 10. And the white sox actually have a lot of payroll flexability right now so even if my fears are confirmed it's not like it completely handcuffs them.
I do wonder if they sign him if they have him play third or short. And if they do if they move Yolmer Sánchez, Tim Anderson, or Yoán Moncada. (Yoan was the least valuable last year, but with the highest upside so might have the most trade value.)
Who makes personnel decisions based on a player's wife? Unless you're blackballing Pujols, and that's not exactly what the Phillies have in mind.
Also I think it's a bit crazy a player is demanding gobs of money or they will bolt for a sport with no guaranteed contracts and a high probability of a shortened life span and health problems. And the A's are caving. Must be good, I guess.
Also I think it's a bit crazy a player is demanding gobs of money or they will bolt for a sport with no guaranteed contracts and a high probability of a shortened life span and health problems. And the A's are caving. Must be good, I guess.
When you have a chance to pass on elite talent in order to buy a new yacht you have have to do it.
I hope this version is true. Would much rather the white sox go all in on Nolan Arenado next year. They are unlikely to compete in 2019 (even if the AL central looks like it might be garbage in general) and I would rather have a 28 year old Nolan for 8 years than a 26 year old Machado for 8 years.
Because I expect Arenado to be the vastly superior player over the life of the contract?
I expect Arenado to average around 4-5 WAR across the 8 year contract.
I expect Machado to average around 2-3 WAR across the contract at best.
I've said multiple times in this thread I want nothing to do with Machado because he reeks of a player who is going to get the payday and then stop caring at all. He will likely have a decent 2019 because he is having to keep up appearances for the payday (aka having to somewhat stay in shape right now since he isn't signed), but I'm expecting a sharp decline in 2020 onwards.
Beyond all of that though, they are roughly the same quality of player. Arenado isn't much older, and actually has a slightly better average WAR per year than Machado based on the WAR on baseball reference, but since the white sox won't really compete next year, it makes sense to pay a player when they are actually in their window.
TL;DR - the money is better spent from 2020-2028 than 2019-2027, and I have no faith Machado will be a good player after he signs.
If the white sox sign one of Machado or Harper I would much rather it be Harper, I don't think Harper is going to be amazing over the life of the contract either, but he is more marketable, and fits the white sox needs far better as 2nd, short and 3rd are some of the better young talent the white sox have in the majors right now.
This is a little late, but I am baffled at the idea that Lemahieu is apparently considered to be a "versatile, Ben Zobrist-type" by the Yankees. I went looking at his appearances log, the dude hasn't played an inning outside of second base since 2014. He's played first base four times in eight years. He's played short stop four times in eight years. How the fuck is that versatile?
It looks even worse when you actually compare it to Zobrist.
It looks even worse when you actually compare it to Zobrist.
Marwin was obviously the closest thing to a Zobrist type on the market, but Marwin would have cost more and small market teams like the Yankees have very real budgetary constraints to deal with.
They don't actually, they actually spend way less than than their market would dictate they should
Rays just signed Avisail Garcia
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/01/rays-sign-avisail-garcia.html
If they can keep him healthy I have a feeling that this will be one of the better signings of this winter. Garcia seemed like he was figuring it out in 2017 and then in 2018 he just couldn't shake the nagging injuries. He kept just getting things going and then got hurt again.
I think he will end up hitting 25-30 home runs and hit .275 or so for the rays this year, while playing a bit below average defense in the outfield. Not elite, but should be solid production from an up to 6 mil signing.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/01/rays-sign-avisail-garcia.html
If they can keep him healthy I have a feeling that this will be one of the better signings of this winter. Garcia seemed like he was figuring it out in 2017 and then in 2018 he just couldn't shake the nagging injuries. He kept just getting things going and then got hurt again.
I think he will end up hitting 25-30 home runs and hit .275 or so for the rays this year, while playing a bit below average defense in the outfield. Not elite, but should be solid production from an up to 6 mil signing.
One of my favorite players, will miss him but it was obvious he was going.
So much talent, hope he puts it all together.
the odds of arenado being worth 32-40 wins for the rest of his career are very slim
I likely went a bit high but if I was forced to place a bet I would bet that he will be worth more than Machado for the rest of their careers.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ml...e-sox-offer-could-accept-this-week/ar-BBSfSbT
Says Machado leaning towards White Sox.
Says Machado leaning towards White Sox.
tl;dr version - I don't think machado will care after he signs the contract and will quickly become a replacement level or worse player.
bleh.
not hustling on ground balls is not the same as not caring about your career. even the guys who don't really care about winning still care about their numbers and reputation.
it will be entertaining seeing the fans of whatever team signs him freak out if he gets off to a slow start.
it will be entertaining seeing the fans of whatever team signs him freak out if he gets off to a slow start.
I'm hoping I'm wrong, but I just don't have a good feeling about the guy. Just get a vibe from him that once he gets his payday he won't care about his career or legacy or reputation ect anymore.
if the rumors are true and it's 7 years for 25-30 a year, and he ends up playing like most expect he will then it will be a great signing. Just saying, as it stands right now, I'm not a fan of signing him.
That being said, since he is young and has a decent history, even if I'm correct it shouldn't have long lasting effects. I'm sure as long as the white sox eat like 40% of the contract they could find someone in a year or two that would be willing to take a chance on getting him back to his former glory. And even if I'm wrong about that the white sox have a ton of payroll flexibility. So much so that even if they got Machado, they wouldn't be out of the Harper contest, and even if they got Harper on top of him, they would still have money to sign to fill some holes next season.
Arenado is an albatross contract in waiting.
He's gonna want a deal that carries him to his late 30s when his defensive skills will erode and his home/road splits already suck.
I can't see him getting a contract longer than 8 years.
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