Oh ok so the time frame is comparable even if the two vendors have differing definitions of what an "active user" is (which means it's not really comparable but well).
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Microsoft FY19Q4 financial results: Gaming Revenue $2.05bn (down 10%YoY) | Xbox Live MAU 65M (up 14%YoY)
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Yeah. 90m is obviously more than 65m, but if Microsoft defines an active user as someone who owns a game/is subscribed to Game Pass and has actually played something, then its like-for-like figure may be higher; conversely, if Valve's definition is the more strict of the two, then the gap is even wider. It's hard to say one way or the other.
Sony was at the same level at the and of 2018:
"We are also happy to announce that the monthly active users of PlayStation Network continues to show strong growth, and has surpassed 90 million as of end of November 2018"
Yeah, but as I ninja-edited into my original post and mentioned in my last post (which isn't a pot shot at you as I wouldn't expect you to catch said edit and I most likely made my last post while you were preparing yours), there's no telling whether that's a like-for-like comparison as the definitions may (and most likely are) different. All we really know is that each service attracts millions of players per month, haha.
I wouldn't go that far. Clearly they've been disappointed by there hardware sales this gen. All the other stuff is a response. It's working but that doesn't mean terrible hardware sales were planned for.
But I agree that Spencer has done a great job
This is why I said that the data is not useless unlike someone that said that they dont pay things like bills using MAU. Which I thought was short sighted seeing that there was no analysis of the figures given, or even thought that those MAU include the increasing Game Pass subscribers.
I think active user is when u have loggedin in the past quarter at least once but they never clarify how they count it unfortunately .(for some it's past 12 months ,not sure what's the duration for MS but since it's reported quarterly it's safe to assume it's quarterly)
Thinking that MAU is "a good metric to show where the business is going" has killed many a startup. What matters is revenue per user.
Why is that? Isn't revenue per user times number of users the simple equation for revenue? Isn't it fine to focus on optimizing either half of that equation? The problem with optimizing for MAU is that not all users are equally valuable, and it's really easy to get a lot of low-value users if just boosting your MAU is your goal. Microsoft can encourage everyone who plays Solitaire to sign in with Xbox Live, but that doesn't mean those users are worth as much, in terms of generating revenue, as an Xbox console owner who subscribes to paid services. (A related mistake is a company giving away a free or unsustainably cheap product in the hopes of getting a lot of users, and then trying to "flip the profit switch" later only to find that those users weren't worth as much as they thought. Is Game Pass sustainable at $10/month? At $1?)
There's an adage in business, "be careful what you measure," because whatever you are focused on measuring tends to be what you start optimizing for. Microsoft is almost certainly using more meaningful metrics internally and is only publicly touting MAU because it has the best optics for them. At least, I would hope so.
Nobody can really debate that the quarterly numbers aren't very good, but the continued focus by many on the possible plastic box sales going forward even into Scarlett is really misguided when you hear from Xbox leadership themselves on things. Here are multiple things to consider based on both the provided information and going forward view that are far more important to their gaming revenue health and outlook than NPD console sales that are obsessed about on here. If their quarterly gaming revenue begins to flag into the $1 billion territory or something even prior to next generation then it could be more cause for concern regardless of ending a generation here. Oh and spare me any condescending "this sounds like PR from Microsoft" BS responses because I clearly just said that the quarterly numbers weren't very good and should be watched for any huge dropoff going forward. I am just going through all of the things on deck here based on their publicly stated strategy that should be considered when looking at what they are trying to do.
- The YOY full FY19 gaming revenue was actually over $11 billion and greater than the record FY18 gaming revenue, which is not an insignificant observation when they have been in the midst of losing a console generation.
- 48% decline in hardware sales for the quarter when looking at YOY is coming off the back of a 33% decline in hardware sales YOY from the prior quarter. The very fact that their software and services has held at least steady in light of this is encouraging, and they did make mention at least of subscription services somewhat offsetting (even with the $1 Game Pass deals) the obvious decline in YOY Fortnite revenue that all platforms have likely taken a hit on.
- While they don't give out hard Game Pass numbers, Phil Spencer has publicly said millions of subscribers and during E3 timeframe he also made mention of it being the world's largest gaming subscription service when talking about it. I think it is clear that they have a very healthy base of users like myself, and anyone that has experienced it realizes what an insane gaming value it is.
- Gears 5, Outer Worlds and Ori Will of the Wisps all come out between September and next February. These should be big pushers of Game Pass on both console and PC as they look to get the subscription base rolling as they go into the Scarlett launch next year.
- Ubisoft said the other day that PC sales had actually overtaken PS4 sales for the first time this year. PC share of sales was at 34%, and PS4 sales were at 31% (down from 38%). Xbox sales were at 18% share. Xbox has a real chance with their renewed push on PC with Steam releases and Game Pass for PC to actually get some of the PC player money that has been growing as shown by the Ubisoft numbers. Gears 5, Halo MCC and Halo Infinite could see some really nice or even huge Steam sales numbers in the case of Halo. They will happily take your money from there too.
- Project xCloud going into public trials this October and should only help people consider the Xbox ecosystem more when you consider that the full Game Pass library is likely to be streaming over the service in whatever way users choose to engage it.
- The Minecraft IP has continued to be a major thing for them (#5 in June NPD for all platform sales still), and it is about to blow up far bigger again. Minecraft Earth looks to be the best use of mixed reality in that type of mobile game yet, and it has the clear potential to be absolutely huge based on the early reviews. If they figure out a solid monetization model for it then it could be a major cash cow for their gaming division. Minecraft Dungeons will sell absolutely huge across all released platforms next March too.
OP
OP
The Xbox doesn't exist in a vacuum. It has direct competition with a much stronger PlayStation brand and I see no reason whatsoever for anyone jumping ship next gen. Quite the opposite, with the strategy of releasing their exclusives on different platforms there is now less reason to own an Xbox than ever before.
Like many others here said the same and you straight up called them a "concerned trolls". What a hypocrisy.
The hardware numbers are worrying. The other results aren't really surprising to me. Last year Q1 and Q2 (Q3 & Q4 for MS) releases were much stronger (including first party titles) and Fortnite was really at its all time high.
I do expect MAU's to grow if Xbox Game Pass for PC goes out of beta and keeps improving. Don't think Gears 5 on Steam will change those numbers that much, but two other releases might:
- Minecraft Earth on Android & iOS
- Halo: The Master Chief Collection on Steam
Those are going to be huge for Xbox Live.
I do expect MAU's to grow if Xbox Game Pass for PC goes out of beta and keeps improving. Don't think Gears 5 on Steam will change those numbers that much, but two other releases might:
- Minecraft Earth on Android & iOS
- Halo: The Master Chief Collection on Steam
Those are going to be huge for Xbox Live.
Because clearly there are some (I never said all of them) users that jump in on these threads who don't care for Xbox and maybe never have, yet they suddenly act "concerned" about these financial things. Xbox is my preferred platform, so of course I care more about seeing how their gaming revenue is doing over time.
For all platforms, MAU is number of users who log in into the platform per month. Nothing more.
I won't presume to say whether that's true of PSN, XBL, or the eShop, but Valve defines an active user as someone who owns a game and has signed in within the past x days (90 for the retired metric of "active user" and 30 for the new metric of "monthly active user") -- a definition that, to the best of my knowledge as both a regular user and someone with Steamworks access, has not changed.
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First things we need to have more information about PS5 and Xbox Scarlet from hardware and price side. Todd Howard seems to think from an hardware point of view this time no one fucked up but we miss the price.
This is tough for Microsoft but next generation is very interesting because for the first time backward compatiblity will be a major point of the gen with GAAS and backlog game continue to be usable on next generation console.... Microsoft seems to have done many effort from the first party side
But I don't think they can move people liking Sony first party exclusive. I think Sony have a group of 30 to 40 millions of people inside the ecosystem which will not move because of exclusive or PS plus for example. They can try to reverse the momentum in US and UK at the beginning because turn it in other countries is very difficult if Sony don't fuck up the price for example...
Without clarification you always assume that they're using the most minimal metric that can be defined as active user during a month.
The thing here... you jump in to turn all the numbers in to something positive, like nothing negative exists for you.. and once another member writes something not positive here, you call them "concerned posters who do not have any interest in Xbox"...
sure there are some who will use these numbers as a means to put down Xbox because of "reasons".. but I have a hard time finding many of those here in this thread..
That's probably a safe assumption, but, in the absence of confirmation, I don't want to speak with certainty.
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That's almost the entire size of some other organisations. Lol.
The problem with the "plastic box sales don't matter, it's all about software & services now" spin is that software & services revenue is down too.
Most of your bullet points are pretty much just speculation on how future products will be totally huge game-changers for Microsoft. Okay.
Well, if it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck...
This is just factually incorrect when you read my opening paragraph, but hey whatever floats your boat when someone provides their opinion like everyone else that happens to see something positive for the future regardless of admittedly poor quarterly revenue YOY performance.
Meaningless numbers. What was the net profit of the gaming division??? I understand not announcing hardware shipments (they've been extremely low for the past 3 years) but they can at least show the strength of their services through profitability.
opening paragraph? or opening post?
doesn't matter really.. you made up your mind, and that is fine with me.. I just wish you wouldn't be so "hostile" towards people who do not share the same views here as you..
The only problem with this type of analysis is that when done in isolation, it offers a picture that is far different from what is happening. That was something that corroborates what Phil Spencer was saying that Game Pass as a model is something that has allowed them to realize more sales.
That same Game Pass is what has seen them weather a storm when it comes to decreasing hardware revenue.Those are part of users that form the MAU and as they increase, so too does revenue.
As for Game Pass, if it is something that is helping achieve more sales, then it is a net positive. A limited run where it is being offered cheap is supposed to get users in, and once in, they believe just like any subscription service that if the service is up to quality, more and more people will be looking to join and paying what is essentially a small fee each month to stay in. This is why they have made strides into having a PC equivalent, games launching day one on stores like Steam which was something that did not happen before.
In any case, there is this revenue per user thing that you keep pushing. I would assume that Microsoft is doing just fine seeing that their gaming division last year broke $10 billion in revenues, a record year considering just how much they have been outsold by the competition. A $2 Billion quarter where they saw hardware revenues drop like a stone was weathered by a growing subscription business and we are really arguing whether it is sustainable?
What you have done is look at nothing more than the MAU to come to a conclusion that it does not pay bills. Aspects of that demographic may not pay a cent, and that is something that I am sure that they look at.
MAUs = tomorrows high margin revenue in the way of services. Gaming is undergoing a major transition and is in growth mode. How it's setting up for the future is exponentially more important than how it's profiting short term.
Revenue doesn't directly keep the lights on or pay employees. Profits do.
If MAUs are going up and revenue is going down, it's because they're selling more services and less consoles. Consoles are the unprofitable portion of the revenue.
To be clear, I'd be surprised if Xbox is profitable right now. They've increased investment significantly and receiving very little return today. Investors and Nadella knew what they were signing off on. That's investment that won't pay off for a few years...but I don't think anyone needs to worry about whether Microsoft will find enough change in their seat cushions to keep the lights on or pay employees. It's a set up for the next two cycles...next gen console launch and then the 5G Revolution.
Gaming is not a division by itself. MS reorganized itself into 3 divisions and they report revenue and income in all Financial Reports by those segments. You can go read them online.
As long as the Xbox division has no second leg to stand on ( and the Windows store certainly isn't that leg) the sales of said plastic box are by far the most important metric to measure the success of Xbox. The Windows Store/Gamepass/Xcloud may explode popularity wise a few years from now but that remains pure speculation. So far Microsoft isn't anywhere close to being a big player in PC gaming. The vast majority of their income is still dependent on Xbox One hardware and software sold.
I don't really think that making an observation that there may be some people commenting on this that don't have any interest in the Xbox platform as particularly hostile, but I would think that people constantly attacking someone as being a PR mouthpiece or some other such nonsense because they happen to enjoy the Xbox platform and see some potential going forward could also be viewed as "hostile".
Firstly, the 360 went against a stronger Playstation brand (on from PS2) and went from 35~ mill Xboxes to 100 mill + 360s. Good product + games. The platform being more agnostic is even more of a reason to draw people into its eco system. There's a significant number of console only gamers that MS failed to attract, and their open strategy is to convince new gamers who prefer console to do their gaming on their machines, and have access to a pool of gamers where its not so much a question of a device being used, just the ease of connecting with anyone, so there's still a lot of growth on that side of its business. It all relies on the games though, a strong first party is going to bring in gamers, something they evidently lacked this gen. They cant release games with the type of quality as Crackdown 3/ReCore/State of Decay etc moving forward, this all comes crashing down IMO if they do.
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I think you're reading a lot into what I was actually saying. I also think you're conflating some terms; MAU =/= Game Pass subscribers (and Game Pass, being heavily marketed to existing Xbox users, is specifically a plan to increase their revenue per user more than it is a plan to increase their MAU).
I think you should look back at the comment I was responding to when I said that Microsoft didn't pay their employees in MAU.
I didn't ever say that MAU was completely meaningless, or whatever you think I said.
Who's launch titles will be on gamepass? Cause that is a dumb business move considering launch period has some of the highest attach rates. Third parties won't do it, ms is making cross gen games for the first little while they already said, so where are they going to get next gen launch titles to be on gamepass?
Before talking about this we need to know if the PS5 is as fucked up as the PS3. For the moment from a hardware point of view no one seems to have done some error listening to Todd Howard who have access to devkit and documentation now we miss the price strategy... This is a very different gen than the PS2 too one: Rise of digital sales, Rise of services like PS plus and Xbox Live, Rise of GAAS games and emphasis on backward compatibility between generations... Microsoft need to convince people to switch of ecosystem, this is not an easy task...
Sony have the momentum but we need to wait first presentation of the products and price with PS5 and Xbox Scarlett. And after having a first idea about next generation games...
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I'd agree with you, but A) software and services revenue went down, not just hardware revenue, and B) Xbox MAUs don't require Microsoft to sell anything at all. It's not a count of paid Xbox Live Gold subscribers. It's not a count of paid Xbox Game Pass subscribers. It's a count of people who log in to Xbox Live, including people who are playing Minecraft on a phone.
Not to dump on Xbox (I'm an owner) but this certainly doesn't surprise me. Everything they've done since Phil took over has been to double down on their existing consumer base. They likely sold Game Pass to existing owners, mostly. They likely sold X to existing Xbox owners who wanted to turn over their OG XBO. The S has likely been the most mainstream console which has expanded their consumer base somewhat, but probably mostly on discounts and deals, not consistently. Reason being is they don't have much software to drive hardware sales. Their only big release, Forza 4, was released during the holidays anyway so during peak discount season.
Wheras with the PS4, I presume their exclusives would drive hardware sales at normal prices consistently throughout the year. They are selling not just on the temp price cuts.
I mean, I know X is a beast of a hardware but it's been sitting at $499 for a year and a half now. It needed to get to $399 regularly to compete with the PS4 Pro, with temp discounts below that. My thoughts, anyway.
But as many here have said, Scarlett is going to be the proof in the pudding. Everything that division has done is to solidify their base and build their foundation to expand with the next hardware release. Next year will be telling.
Wheras with the PS4, I presume their exclusives would drive hardware sales at normal prices consistently throughout the year. They are selling not just on the temp price cuts.
I mean, I know X is a beast of a hardware but it's been sitting at $499 for a year and a half now. It needed to get to $399 regularly to compete with the PS4 Pro, with temp discounts below that. My thoughts, anyway.
But as many here have said, Scarlett is going to be the proof in the pudding. Everything that division has done is to solidify their base and build their foundation to expand with the next hardware release. Next year will be telling.
1. Not once did I say that Game Pass = MAU.
2. In my very first post I also stated that MAU is not a worthless statistic, but can be extrapolated to see what is going on in the system.
3. I have also stated that the idea behind Game Pass is to continue expanding it. What they are doing on steam or the expansion of Game Pass to PC is a way of trying to get more revenues in.
4. I also stated that you are looking at the data wrong or in a short sighted way. The one segment that dropped like a rock was hardware sales. It was weathered by increasing Game Pass subs. MAU may not pay bills which is a statement you made, but there is a significant part of that MAU that is picking up slack on a slowing hardware business. Something that they can see on their end.
5. Game Pass is not there to increase their revenue per user. Game Pass is there to increase their user base not only in the console space, but on PC. And once streaming comes into play, other devices and then use that as a means for increasing spending on the ecosystem. Microsoft wants to sell you consoles, but they want to sell even more subscriptions because that ties in with their other business strategy.
Was it? How many Game Pass subs did they add?
Uhhh....
...yeah, I'm not going to go back and forth on this with you any more. Good night.
Being cross gen doesn't prevent these games from being next gen launch titles, just like it didn't stop BoTW from being considered next gen launch despite being available on Wii U. MS will most likely have multiple 1st party titles lined up for Scarlett launch. Your shiny new console will show off its power with $10 sub, thats it. I see that being huge for the early adopter.
They are giving people more and more reasons to skip the console and just get their games on other platforms. Doesn't surprise me that they are struggling selling hardware.
I can't even remember the last good exclusive they had (forza horizon 4?). Seems like all they churn out nowadays are janky small scale games.
I can't even remember the last good exclusive they had (forza horizon 4?). Seems like all they churn out nowadays are janky small scale games.
The first Xbox sold ~24 million and the 360 ~84 million. And it pretty much only did that because Sony fucked up in every way possible. They released up to 15 months later, at a higher price, with a poor lineup and lots of other mistakes. None of this is going to happen next gen.
Maybe read their earnings press release.
Here.
Good to see you are now cherry picking posts. Would be nice to also see you go to earlier posts pointing how Game Pass has increased game sales.
Sony and Microsoft executives know what need to be done and some interviews or last E3 conference for Xbox division shows they learned their lessons... Shawn Layden told we will never see 599 again... Microsoft told the next generation hardware will be a dedicated games machine during E3 2019 conference...
From Todd Howard (Bethesda CEO) we know than MS and Sony did not fucked up on hardware side. I expect two goods machines nearly as powerful(less than 10% differential) at a good price(between 399 dollars and 499 dollars...).
The difference will come from brand, games, ecosystems...
Sure but unlike Mattrick or Kutaragi the current leadership know what they are doing.
If they need to have the other fuck up to succeed they are already in a terrible spot.