So we've moved from twisting Moore's words and making up quotes to paint him as some racist monster, to doing the exact same with posters here taking issue with it. Absolutely wonderful.
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Michael Moore: ‘Don’t believe the polls, Trump vote is always undercounted’
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So we've moved from twisting Moore's words and making up quotes to paint him as some racist monster, to doing the exact same with posters here taking issue with it. Absolutely wonderful.
"I heard Steve Bannon lay out his blueprint of how they think they're going to win on Tuesday and they think they're gonna keep the House by one seat. And anybody who doesn't trust that, please remember that Donald Trump outsmarted us. He outsmarted us in 2016 and won the White House by losing the election. That takes a certain kind of evil genius to figure that out." - Michael Moore
I don't think he meant that at all. You have to look at his history of views before calling him a racist.
Here is the video: https://youtu.be/UTpiErChZuQ?t=64
He clearly intended to say that voters across the country will not vote in the same proportion as the ones in SC. Whether he knows the demographics of SC or not - I don't know because he does say people of color will be among those that decide the election.
The polls for 2016 and Brexit were a lot closer than now. I think Moore is right that the Trump votes are always undercounted but that isn't enough to overcome the Biden lead.
Considering that more than half the voting-age country doesn't vote, they're hiding from you in plain sight.
Pretty sure Roland Martin said something similar, but in as much as you do it as a strategy. Think like you are down ten points, and fight like hell
Not really sure how you describe a situation as "always" when Trump ran (or tried to run) for office multiple times, only got through while running against the most unpopular woman on the planet and then got his back blown out during the midterms.
How does that equate to "always"?
How does that equate to "always"?
Pretty sure noone has said that. Of course its voice matters like every other state, but its also older and more conservative than most other states, including many of those with a high african american population. They said the south carolina democratic electorate is not representative of the democratic party as a whole, which is an objectively true statement, and it's perfectly reasonable that they shouldn't be anymore of a kingmaking state than Iowa or New Hampshire which are also unrepresentative. Being able to Win SC is no more predictive than being able to win any number of other states, and yet it is treated as such. There are 45 states more in line with the Democratic electorate than South Carolina.
This is not our first rodeo.
We know what he truly meant because this sidestepping is something progressive white men love to do.
People talking about the polls as if the pollsters haven't been augmenting their methods -- particularly aggregate sites like 538 -- haven't been listening and don't want to listen.
That said, if this is just a last gasp of "please please please vote" then fine.
That said, if this is just a last gasp of "please please please vote" then fine.
Doesn't change the fact that we would be better off starting with Illinois or any number of other states as opposed to SC Iowa or New Hampshire. I dont know his motivations but this is simply true. You cannot make the argument that SC is somehow representative as a whole of the Democratoc electorate. It isn't. If you have some other reason as to why SC should be a kingmaker, fine, but it isn't because it represents the full diversity of the Democratic party, or that it mirrors the democratic electorate, because it doesn't.
I think he means in the various opinion polls. All of them are undercounted.
I'm just shocked at people painting Moore in a certain light. Unless there are actual quotes, I'm saying a lot of you are sus.
To be fair to them they took someone else's interpretation and went with that. In other words hearsay. But they should have known better and verified it.
he is right, it's going to be 2016 part 2.
I'm shocked at how people really are 100% certain this time is going to be different, looking at the other poll thread...
the shock and horror of millions is going to be really something in a couple of weeks, I'm afraid of it to be honest.
I'm shocked at how people really are 100% certain this time is going to be different, looking at the other poll thread...
the shock and horror of millions is going to be really something in a couple of weeks, I'm afraid of it to be honest.
The election is in 4 days, and every sign points to a Biden win. Do you seriously think people are voting in record numbers to elect Trump to a 2nd term?
Sounds like you weren't paying close attention to the race last time, and you aren't paying close attention to the race this time.
No. It didn't. If you believe that, you weren't reading the actual articles from sites about how numbers should actually be concerning for Clinton. And you weren't paying attention in 2018.
Polling in 2016 was accurate if you account for their margin of error though. Iirc, around thai time Trump was at a near 40% chance to win and had to win in battleground states where Hillary was slightly ahead or near tied with him.
We are in a much better situation this time than in 2016. Biden is not Hillary.
If you're worried about polling (like me) watch this interview:
Also go vote.
Which is Moore's main point.
Also go vote.
Which is Moore's main point.
I remember Trump clearly on a rise near the end of the campaign in 2016, but I also remember the shock of most people, so don't tell me it was expected to happen
it looks better now, no doubt... but... I'm just too pessimistic of a person I guess... oh well, soon.
it looks better now, no doubt... but... I'm just too pessimistic of a person I guess... oh well, soon.
You realize he's saying people should go out and vote and not think everything is fine and don't vote right? Are you not going to vote now?
After decades of progressive outreach and making the public aware of the travesties happening in America, Michael Moore is now the enemy of ResetEra.
I mean it's the first of the states that actually has a significant African American population , but it's also not a kingmaker. The warning signs in the primary were alarming for Bernie well before South Carolina since he once against mostly abandoned campaigning in the South and to older African Americans. His campaign was just running high on wins in mostly white areas and mostly caucus states.
Moore is right that people should go out and vote but he's wrong about basically everything else in that article, so
1) There's no evidence of a "shy Trump voter effect" in the polls. This is an invention of republican pollsters.
2) Trump hasn't "significantly tightened" any of the swing state races. Moore cherry picks a single outlier high poll of +16 in MI in July and then compares it to the current RCP average of ~7 points to say Trump has closed the gap. Nonsense. If you look at the averages on 538 for Michigan, Biden briefly peaked at 10ish points ahead in the average and he's now down to a meager (/s) 8ish points ahead in the average. Biden has not dropped below a 6 point lead in MI since April and there's never been any significant tightening. This is the story of the entire race.
I think the only place where you could make a "tightening" argument is in Florida, where there was a stretch over the summer where the polls suggested a 6ish point race but it's now closer to a reasonable Florida margin of 2.2 points. I don't think anyone should have expected a 6+ point presidential margin in Florida since the state is very inelastic and typically sees things in the <2 point range - 6 points would've been the biggest margin in like 30 years.
3)"Moore continued, "But I wake up every morning with the assumption that Trump believes he's going to win and that's good enough for me. If he thinks he's going to win, then I think he's going to win."
This is a pretty goofy assumption since it's pretty clear Trump thinks he will lose and that's why he cancelled his election night party, had a low-energy rally where he left after 20 mins, and spends the night ragetweeting at 3am about how the supreme court needs to steal the election for him.
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National polls were right. State polls were wrong. You need to distinguish between the two and state polls are what actually matter with the Electoral College, as you said yourself.
Moore was absolutely right about Michigan in 2016. He was actually on the ground, seeing what was happening instead of worshipping the number, cumming if it goes up a decimal point on 538 or whatever you people doomwatch.
You remind me of the people shitting on Bill James for years in baseball only to see the A's do what they did for years.
Moore was right about 2016 so he's right about everything about elections going forward. Let's see what he said about the 2018 midterms:
Like come on with this shit. People are scared, some hope is fine based on actual data.
Michael Moore does not say things based on empirical evidence.
If this gets even a few more people to vote, that's fine in a sense. But Moore is problematic.
Yawn. Tons of state polls were within the margin of error and the final polling never had time to reflect Comey's surprise.
2016 polling was not way off. An inconvenient truth, it is.
If this gets even a few more people to vote, that's fine in a sense. But Moore is problematic.
Yawn. Tons of state polls were within the margin of error and the final polling never had time to reflect Comey's surprise.
2016 polling was not way off. An inconvenient truth, it is.
You gotta take some responsibility and do some due diligence to substantiate your claims if you are gonna pass them as truths. There are countless post-mortems about what happened in 2016 and work that has been looking into the very claims being made. You can make informed takes and highlight potential concerns using that information, but as it reads this doesn't seem to be based on anything beyond gut feelings. I can ask anyone in the street for their gut feelings on the election and I'd probably get about as insightful an answer as the one provided here.
Is it really? He isn't my enemy certainly. But then there are people who think pointing out reasons why he's wrong is somehow hateful and not just critical.
I always get a headache when people subscribe Trump winning the election because he is a evil genius or is special.
Nah fuck that the truth is he is a rich racist and the US loves their rich racists that they'll ignore the reality laid down in front of them. That's all.
He isn't an evil genius it's just you got 60 million absolute idiotic loons voting.
Nah fuck that the truth is he is a rich racist and the US loves their rich racists that they'll ignore the reality laid down in front of them. That's all.
He isn't an evil genius it's just you got 60 million absolute idiotic loons voting.
That's a healthy attitude to have, though. Keep breaking records. Just ignore the polls (not saying they aren't right!) and keep voting. There's no downside to it, and can only lead to an even bigger turnout!
Why wouldn't you want Trump to lose badly? I'm from Sweden and a lot of my friends who haven't been following the election as closely as I have are echoing the same fears "I think Trump will win, I don't care what your polls are saying..." - I don't believe he will... Everything points to him losing and losing BIGLY!
But that inherent, almost irrational fear, fueled by Hillary's loss in 2016 is a good thing. It means people, as we've already seen, will go out in droves and vote, vote, vote! There wouldn't be this amount of recordbreaking turnout if it weren't for a certain amount of distrust in polls after 2016.
So it's not just an Era thing. But it's good nonetheless.
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