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Arithmetician

Member
Oct 9, 2019
1,983
Well, I think it will at least double the numbers of previous 2d entries like Metroid 2, Super Metroid, Metroid Fusion, Zero Mission, Samus Returns. Seems roughly in line with the Switch bump other franchises are getting, but 5m doesn't seem like it's a realistic goal.
 

Goldenh

Member
Feb 9, 2020
1,387
I do think some people are also waiting for a price drop after that whole it's too expensive argument. I also think MP4 will sell even better because of this.
 

Belphegor

Member
Sep 24, 2021
1,105
Prime 3 sold 1.3million, why would MP4 sell 5 million?
If a 2D game like Dread managed to sell this much then MP4 will definitely have a bigger opening, specially if it reviews well. MP3 is really not a metric for this since it was a Wii game and the audience for that console was more interested in casual games like Wii Sports.
 

NotLiquid

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
34,748
thing is, when the game was announced you had people here clamoring that it was going to outsell the likes of Ori, hollow knight, and kinetsu no yaiba, but now that the game isn't looking like that we are pulling price differences ?.
The game has already outsold Kimetsu No Yaiba by a mile and is poised to outsell the others as well.
 

NotLiquid

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
34,748
I see, you think it's going to outsell Ori and hollow knight ?
If the documented sales number to match is 3M then Dread should be able to hit that with no struggle unless legs come crashing down. Ori will always have Game Pass, and Hollow Knight is likely to hold some undocumented pace ahead given its cheap price and regularly heavy discounts (I imagine we wouldn't get a sales update on it unless it crosses a 4m milestone for example), but those differences would be fairly arbitrary, especially with the revenue Dread's pulling in comparison.
 

Capra

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,593
I really don't know what a 2D Metroid game could do to justify being full price to most people. Like they're designed to be shorter games that you can keep replaying to get better and better times and try out new routes with different sequence breaks.

I guess it can't? Maybe if they cut Samus' running speed in half or something so it takes as long to go across the world map as it does to get anywhere in Hollow Knight
 

TGB86

Member
Jan 27, 2021
1,148
thing is, when the game was announced you had people here clamoring that it was going to outsell the likes of Ori, hollow knight, and kinetsu no yaiba, but now that the game isn't looking like that we are pulling price differences ?.

This is silly. There was an actual poll here predicting lifetime sales totals, and around 60% of the responders voted for 3m or less, which it's almost at after 3 months. These sales numbers are significantly higher than the consensus expected prior to launch.
 

DontHateTheBacon

Unshakable Resolve
Member
Oct 27, 2017
10,313
Should be even higher but it feels good to know that this will become the best selling Metroid. It's my favorite.
 
thing is, when the game was announced you had people here clamoring that it was going to outsell the likes of Ori, hollow knight, and kinetsu no yaiba, but now that the game isn't looking like that we are pulling price differences ?.
It's probably going to outsell them, though? I think folks just want both the franchise and the genre to be bigger than it can actually be, and that's messing up what were always largely unrealistic expectations.
 

wrowa

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,372
Metroid is a low to mid tier Nintendo franchise. It always does well critically but sales haven't ever broken out into the same leagues many other Nintnedo franchises. Since Switch injected new life into many games and saw record breaking performances not only for 1st party titles but also many Indies, there was a hope that Dread might be a breakout smash hit, finally putting Metroid on the map next to the Nintendo heavy hitters.

Genre wise, we've seen games like Ori and Hollow Knight sell 3+ million copies so a prestigious franchise like Metroid delivering a high quality game on the Switch felt like it really could have entered the big leagues if they did it right.

Dread is the first Metroid release in 15 years to break 1 million in sales. It's only the third game in franchise history to sell more than 1.8 million units (and the first side scroller Metroid to do so in almost 30 years). It'll be the first game in franchise history to go beyond 3 million.

You got to keep the franchise history in mind when judging Dread. Metroid was never even close to bigger Nintendo franchises such as Zelda, so you need to keep your expectations in check accordingly. Dread has shown fantastic growth and has pretty much reached the maximum of what you could hope for a $60 2D Metroidvania to sell. Its success also bodes incredibly well for Metroid Prime 4, which in all likelihood will be a much more appealing product on the market. If Dread can exceed 3 million, a great Prime 4 has a real shot at >5.
 

Leo

Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,546
The Switch is still getting at least two Metroid games (Prime and Prime 4), so Dread will get a bump and might end up selling more than people expect in the end.
 

Jaymageck

Member
Nov 18, 2017
1,940
Toronto
Anyone being down on the numbers is in lala land. These are absolutely fantastic numbers for the franchise.

Despite being the namesake, Metroid is niche compared to other Metroidvanias. There's less of a mainstream appeal than something like Hollow Knight. I don't expect Metroid to sell better than games like that.

Why is that? I'm not sure. I think historically it's been because of combat. Dread does a lot to improve upon that though, which I think is a big part of why the numbers are as good as they are even. But does it outdo Hollow Knight for boss battles? Not a chance.
 

ILikeFeet

DF Deet Master
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
61,987
Anyone being down on the numbers is in lala land. These are absolutely fantastic numbers for the franchise.

Despite being the namesake, Metroid is niche compared to other Metroidvanias. There's less of a mainstream appeal than something like Hollow Knight. I don't expect Metroid to sell better than games like that.

Why is that? I'm not sure. I think historically it's been because of combat. Dread does a lot to improve upon that though, which I think is a big part of why the numbers are as good as they are even. But does it outdo Hollow Knight for boss battles? Not a chance.
Hollow Knight was at 2.8M units as of 2019, after 2 years and 4 systems. Metroid has more mainstream appeal
 

Servbot24

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
43,060
I think I had predicted 3 million, so I'm happy to see that it has a good chance to exceed that.
 

Kirbivore

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,925
Anyone being down on the numbers is in lala land. These are absolutely fantastic numbers for the franchise.

Despite being the namesake, Metroid is niche compared to other Metroidvanias. There's less of a mainstream appeal than something like Hollow Knight. I don't expect Metroid to sell better than games like that.

Why is that? I'm not sure. I think historically it's been because of combat. Dread does a lot to improve upon that though, which I think is a big part of why the numbers are as good as they are even. But does it outdo Hollow Knight for boss battles? Not a chance.

Metroidvanias are a niche genre despite how many titles get pumped out for it.
 
Hollow Knight was at 2.8M units as of 2019, after 2 years and 4 systems. Metroid has more mainstream appeal
I really don't think people quite grasp that this is mainly a genre problem. There's a hard ceiling that Dread will easily put pressure on that no other title has, but it's not likely that it can push past it because of what these games are in the end. Some genres just won't ever sell 10 million on a single game, and that's OK.
 

mael

Avenger
Nov 3, 2017
16,764
Finally some growth for Metroid!
A great follow up to Fusion that will lead to more hopefully.
Now it's Prime 4 and unless they fumble it spectacularly, it should blast through Prime 1.

And for people in the back Super Metroid wasn't as popular back then as its legacy would make you believe it had so yeah not a big seller.
 

RPG

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,075
Colorado
I wonder what the attach rate with the OLED switch was. Seems like the two were intended to be coupled together in some fashion but then not because of supply issues on the H/W side.
 

Tavernade

Tavernade
Moderator
Sep 18, 2018
8,617
The Switch is still getting at least two Metroid games (Prime and Prime 4), so Dread will get a bump and might end up selling more than people expect in the end.

Agreed. I'd bet it sees a substantial boost when both release, especially if Nintendo does a discount on it as a promo (one of those 30% off deals they like so much).
 

Xwing

Unshakable Resolve - One Winged Slayer
Member
Nov 11, 2017
9,874
My prediction of 5 million + lifetime sales is looking pretty good right now. Very excited for the future of the franchise.
 
OP
OP
Phendrift

Phendrift

Member
Oct 25, 2017
32,292
thing is, when the game was announced you had people here clamoring that it was going to outsell the likes of Ori, hollow knight, and kinetsu no yaiba, but now that the game isn't looking like that we are pulling price differences ?.
I actually don't remember people commenting that. The price difference has been in the sales prediction conversation since day 1.
 
Oct 27, 2017
42,700
Prime 3 sold 1.3million, why would MP4 sell 5 million?
Because the Prime series fits the demographics of the Switch more than it ever did the Wii. Plus the Switch boost. Plus riding the wave of Dread and probably a MP1 remake. Plus it'll be on a system with a userbase of 100+ million. I could see it coming close at least
 
Oct 27, 2017
42,700
Anyone being down on the numbers is in lala land. These are absolutely fantastic numbers for the franchise.

Despite being the namesake, Metroid is niche compared to other Metroidvanias. There's less of a mainstream appeal than something like Hollow Knight. I don't expect Metroid to sell better than games like that.

Why is that? I'm not sure. I think historically it's been because of combat. Dread does a lot to improve upon that though, which I think is a big part of why the numbers are as good as they are even. But does it outdo Hollow Knight for boss battles? Not a chance.

From posts in here Dread is already on track to outsell most other Metroidvanias so I'm not sure what people are even talking about
 

mrchad

Member
Oct 27, 2017
765
Already beating a lot of predictions in this thread

www.resetera.com

Metroid Dread... Possible MAJOR Breakout for the Frachise? (Like 5mil Lifetime) Nintendo

...... ⛔️ Pls don’t Thread in this Dread ⛔️ First of all, to make things clear, if this game clears 2mil-3mil it’s a major success. I’m talking about mainly if Metroid dread can pull the franchise in a way like AC/LoZ did for their franchises. This thread is just saying that can this game...
 

My Tulpa

alt account
Banned
Sep 19, 2021
1,132
Damn I voted 5M LTD. It might still get there, but I think it will fall short. Maybe Era voting it GOTY will make it sell some extra.
(hey it might get a few dozen copies more)

To put it in perspective, Luigi's Mansion was at ~5 million at the end of Dec 2019. It's now over 10 million already and has more Switch lifetime to go.

Metroid Dread should hit at least 6 million when all is said and done, and I say even closer to 10 million if it gets any kind of boost in profile with the future Metroid Prime releases.
 

makonero

Member
Oct 27, 2017
9,655
so happy for it. what a fantastic game, and a perfect intro to metroid for newcomers. Can't wait to see what mercurysteam does next (after cleaning up their own house with regards to crediting and other behind the scenes stuff that I hope happens)