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NotLiquid

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
34,781
Between Story of Seasons, Sakuna, and the NMH ports, Marvelous has really been eating on the Switch lately.
 

Dash Kappei

Member
Nov 1, 2017
4,843
Massive fw for SoS, we'll see if word of mouth will kill it tho, apparently the game's qa is under fire?

Legit good numbers for the five
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
BDII won't have problem to clear 200k at shipments. 300k are still in sight, second week drop will tell.
 

Deleted member 63122

User requested account closure
Banned
Jan 16, 2020
9,071
Switch has been selling a lot for a while. That and covid would catch up for a while, I guess. Even with a mature production line.
 

sebbbbe_WiiG

Member
Oct 28, 2017
216
Berlin
Code:
+----+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+------------+
|    |       Switch 2020     |       Switch 2021     | Difference |
|Week|   Weekly  |    YTD    |   Weekly  |    YTD    | 2021 - 2020|
+----+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+------------+
|  1 |   284.827 |   284.827 |   312.121 |   312.121 |     27.294 |
|  2 |   116.302 |   401.128 |   167.596 |   479.717 |     78.589 |
|  3 |    96.458 |   497.586 |   170.691 |   650.408 |    152.822 |
|  4 |    67.987 |   565.573 |   110.811 |   761.219 |    195.646 |
|  5 |    75.922 |   641.495 |   114.170 |   875.389 |    233.894 |
|  6 |   100.961 |   741.456 |    88.485 |   963.874 |    222.418 |
|  7 |    80.312 |   821.768 |   109.615 | 1.073.489 |    251.721 |
|  8 |    41.490 |   863.258 |    74.298 | 1.147.787 |    283.529 |
|  9 |    53.098 |   916.356 |    78.049 | 1.225.836 |    309.480 |
| 10 |    50.585 |   967.941 |           |           |            |
| 11 |    57.274 | 1.025.215 |           |           |            |
| 12 |   392.576 | 1.417.791 |           |           |            |
| 13 |   282.561 | 1.700.352 |           |           |            |
+----+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+------------+

Thanks for the graphs as always! Just a minor thing, but your Total 2020 for week 6 and after is off by 1.000. It should be 742.456. This has also an effect on the differences from there on.
 

Arynio

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,235
Thought Switch HW supply would be better this week. Still great numbers, pf course. PS5 HW finally picking up, nice to see.

As for SW, impressive SoS debut. Way over my prediction, and I think I was one of the most optimistic in here. On the other hand, I overpredicted the 3-week tally of SM3DW, but it's posting awesome numbers. Finally, my BDII debut prediction was spot on.
 

cw_sasuke

Member
Oct 27, 2017
26,401
Thought Switch HW supply would be better this week. Still great numbers, pf course. PS5 HW finally picking up, nice to see.

As for SW, impressive SoS debut. Way over my prediction, and I think I was one of the most optimistic in here. On the other hand, I overpredicted the 3-week tally of SM3DW, but it's posting awesome numbers. Finally, my BDII debut prediction was spot on.
Wouldnt expect too many HW outliers on Switch with MH Rise coming up. Gotta have some consoles saved up for that launch.
 

DarkDetective

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,906
The Netherlands
Wow, bizarrely big opening for Story of Seasons! 200k+ without digital is phenomenal. Now let's hope Marvelous can keep the damage to a minimum by quickly releasing a patch.

Bravely Default II sales are in line with my expectations. Good result. Hopefully the second week sales will be a bit better than Octopath Traveler thanks to quick new supply.
 

Delusibeta

Prophet of Truth
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
5,648
Yeah, Story of Seasons way overperformed everyone's expectations. Almost certainly an outright franchise record once digital sales are factored in, and even with the negative WoM I can easily see it setting a franchise record for physical copies before the end of the month.
 

Pooroomoo

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,972
BDII fw as I expected, digital is probably not too shabby given it was no. 4 in eshop recently, now let's hope for some legs (and stock...).
 

Lite_Agent

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,572
Somewhere. I think.
Best Story of Seasons LTD (as of the end of 2019):

605./459. [3DS] Story of Seasons: Trio of Towns <SLG> (Marvelous) {2016.06.23} (¥4.980) - 2.264 / 241.406 (-57%) (100.319 <61,29%>)

This game's debut is 40k behind the best LTD performance for the franchise. Impressive!

Island of Happiness on DS sold over 300k (according to Famitsu). Pioneers of Olive Town will easily get there, but it's not quite there yet.
 

DeuceGamer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,476
Admittedly I expected higher sales for Bravely Default II. What should we expect Square Enix expectations are?
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
Isle of Happiness on DS sold over 300k (according to Famitsu). Pioneers of Olive Town will easily get there, but it's not quite there yet.
Right, I wasn't sure how to navigate this Story of Seasons/Harvest Moon debacle, so I stuck to games called Story of Seasons. Are they the same franchise?

Regardless, 300k will be hit relatively quickly as well I think.
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
Not good enough for Bravely Default 2.

It needs dem legs.😤
 

Delusibeta

Prophet of Truth
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
5,648
Right, I wasn't sure how to navigate this Story of Seasons/Harvest Moon debacle, so I stuck to games called Story of Seasons. Are they the same franchise?

Regardless, 300k will be hit relatively quickly as well I think.
Yes, the distinction is solely in the West, it's always been Bokujō Monogatari in Japan.
 

TheBiInBilingual

THE STORE ENSURED ME THERE WOULDN'T BE FILM
Member
Feb 22, 2018
2,797
Did not think of a Switch HW increase tbh.

Only 4 more weeks until MH:R numbers, what do we expect first week?
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
We might have a new entry in the top 30 for the PS5. That game would only need a 4,5% weekly attach-rate.
 

Fisico

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,106
Paris
My poor predictions...

Good result though. Momotaro might hit 2 million retail next week. Might be a few weeks from a 3 million announcement with is just mind-blowing.

Prediction for SoS will be a bloodbath, highest one was 165k and most were sub 100k.
Bravely was overpredicted a bit and so was Mario
 
Oct 27, 2017
8,611
At least the PS5 is doing more decently hardware wise
Edit : I was happy for Momotaro's perfromance(becuase franchises suddenly blwoing up is nice) but ever since i saw that...caricature in a screenshot ive been watever about it. Cant beleive Japan still does that
 

ShinobiBk

One Winged Slayer
Member
Dec 28, 2017
10,121
That's a bad opening for BD2 imo but not surprising
There seemed to be no hype around it. People were down on the demo.
Also I was very surprised the team revealed their next game in Triangle Strategy before BD2 even came out

I'll clarify it's not terrible or the end of the world or anything. But we've seem so many franchises have improvements over the 3DS entries.
 

Kouriozan

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,128
I was expecting 100k for BD 2 after hearing from last week, feels like there was no marketing at all, but the WoM is pretty strong so I'll pray for good legs.
If you compare to Octopath, they went pretty hype for the HD-2D thing.

EDIT : wouldn't be surprised to hear it having stock issue, considering it's Square Enix, even with that first week.
 

Delusibeta

Prophet of Truth
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
5,648
Prediction for SoS will be a bloodbath, highest one was 165k and most were sub 100k.
Bravely was overpredicted a bit and so was Mario
Checking my predictions: 75k for Story of Seasons, 150k for Bravely Default. Couldn't have gotten it more wrong. Predicting 500k for Mario was also wrong, but less wrong.
 

DeuceGamer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,476
They sold what they shipped twice

I see, thanks. So the problem is once again stock for a Square title? I wondered if they undershipped again.

If that's the case then I guess we can expect higher digital sales due to being out of stock and it would also seem that it exceeded expectations.
 
Jan 8, 2021
305
my predictions:
[NSW] Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury (17 days) - 444.000 (very close)
[NSW] Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (4 days) - 91.000 (
I wanted to change it immediately after writing it to 120-130k but still not close )
[NSW] Bravely Default II (3 days) - 117.000 stock :(
 

Luke88

One Winged Slayer
Member
Dec 29, 2018
2,560
Italy
Wow at the overperformance by SoS, I knew I screwed up my prediction but I don't think anyone expected this growth.

BD2 outselling Second is good, I think WoM will keep it in the charts for some time.
 

Drblitzk

Member
Dec 9, 2020
295
Yeah, I guess low preorders hurt BDII chances, hopefully SE actually believed in the game and printed more copies fast, still not worried about the future of the franchise, 200k seems to be like the goal for this type of games.
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,740
Italy
Best Story of Seasons LTD (as of the end of 2019):

605./459. [3DS] Story of Seasons: Trio of Towns <SLG> (Marvelous) {2016.06.23} (¥4.980) - 2.264 / 241.406 (-57%) (100.319 <61,29%>)

This game's debut is 40k behind the best LTD performance for the franchise. Impressive!
You could even say that it instantly became the best selling game in the franchise (there was a 10% reduction on the eshop for people preordering the game).

Yep, Story of Seasons developed by Marvelous is the same franchise as Harvest Moon.

Harvest Moon: Island of Happiness on DS did 304,660; then we had Harvest Moon: A New Beginning at 264,042 and Harvest Moon: Linking the New World at 259,111.
 

mjw

Member
Oct 27, 2017
540
It's going to be extremely disappointing if Marvelous is unable to salvage this game
 

ShyMel

Moderator
Oct 31, 2017
3,483
Amazing debut for Olive Town. And nice to see UtaPri Debut's Switch port chart as well.
 

squall23

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,786
Assuming Bang Dream is a retail game and not F2P, can the sales of Uta no Prince-sama be seen as the baseline? I was thinking it could be much higher than 10k.