Media Create Sales: Week 6, 2019 (Feb 04 - Feb 10)

[Aters]

Zanki Zero is a DRPG, it sold about as much as it could. It is Spike Chunsoft's fault to expect Danganranpa number. But I doubt they had such high expectation.

Capcom is literally 1 company.

It's like saying that global warming doesn't exist because winter in Russia is as cold as ever.

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But Capcom is the only company that ignores Switch. SE, Bamco, Konami, Level 5 and a bunch of smaller ones are fully onboard.

 

[Chris1964]

Thanks Chris.

DQXIS is indeed a question mark. It could go anywhere between the PS4 price and ¥6.000.

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PS4 was priced at 8.980 and 3DS at 5.980.

I wouldn't expected anything less than 6.980.

 

[KtSlime]

For reference, SE is asking ¥6800 (¥7344 after taxes) for FFX/X-2 on Switch.

It's going to be expensive, and is likely on a 32gb card. Our taxes also raise to 10% this fall. I'm expecting to pay at least ¥8800+.

 

[HK-47]

Can't believe a Mario Party has turned into an "evergreen" title

Switch is on a different planet

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Mario Party 8 was the definition of an evergreen

 

[Fularu]

Zanki Zero is a DRPG, it sold about as much as it could. It is Spike Chunsoft's fault to expect Danganranpa number. But I doubt they had such high expectation.


But Capcom is the only company that ignores Switch. SE, Bamco, Konami, Level 5 and a bunch of smaller ones are fully onboard.

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Until we see PES on Switch I'll hold judgement on Konami's commitment

 

[_Dog]

Astral Chains is even higher

Normal Edition - ¥7.980
Limited Edition - ¥9.980

Collaborations with third parties will be higher priced from Nintendo's own IPs which almost all will play at ¥5.980. Fire Emblem could be the only exception this year.

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Judging by Platinum's website it seems that Nintendo co-owns the IP with them.

 

[Chris1964]

Until we see PES on Switch I'll hold judgement on Konami's commitment

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Konami turned things around a lot with Switch support last weeks. Since they barely care for dedicated gaming anymore two announcements is a big deal for them.

PES is a shadow of the past but also their biggest IP and if it follows they will be 100% on Switch. If neither next entry is on they will likely never try.

 

[MysticGon]

Is it safe to assume Minecraft Switch is over 1 million with digital?

 

[Deleted member 19702]

Konami turned things around a lot with Switch support last weeks. Since they barely care for dedicated gaming anymore two announcements is a big deal for them.

PES is a shadow of the past but also their biggest IP and if it follows they will be 100% on Switch.

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There's little reason to believe they'll skip PES this time after the Power Pro announcement and considering FIFA's sales.

 

[ILikeFeet]

In their territory specifically? Absolutely not.

Globally? Ask Capcom

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how many of those companies can spend Capcom money though?

 

[Chris1964]

Is it safe to assume Minecraft Switch is over 1 million with digital?

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If you include the digital version before the update it surely is.

 

[DarkDetective]

Astral Chain is a niche title. Therefore, the gains by charger 1000 yen more to a small group of players are most likely higher than the losses of not reaching some people.

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Which Konami announcement for Switch did I miss? They only announced Jikkyou Powerful Pro Yakyuu in the Direct, didn't they?

 

[Oregano]

Astral Chain is a niche title. Therefore, the gains by charger 1000 yen more to a small group of players are most likely higher than the losses of not reaching some people.

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Which Konami announcement for Switch did I miss? They only announced Jikkyou Powerful Pro Yakyuu in the Direct, didn't they?

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Yu Gi-Oh was announced for Switch recently too.

 

[Kresnik]

And since it tanked maybe it'll lead the Danganronpa team to reconsider their Switch stance (nah).

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I don't think Switch would've changed anything about Zanki Zero. DanganRonpa team need to reconsider their stance on the game in general. I'm a massive, massive fan of DanganRonpa and I still don't really "get" the appeal of Zanki Zero and likely won't be buying the western release because it just... doesn't look very good.

Zanki Zero is a DRPG, it sold about as much as it could. It is Spike Chunsoft's fault to expect Danganranpa number. But I doubt they had such high expectation.

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It's actually pretty decent sales for a DRPG.

Also DanganRonpa opened to like 25k sales in Japan on PSP iirc. It only sold well once it got good WoM, budget re-release and anime. Zanki Zero seems to be falling at the first hurdle so it would be really strange if they'd bet on it.

 

[fiendcode]

There's little reason to believe they'll skip PES this time after the Power Pro announcement and considering FIFA's sales.

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PES needs a Fox Engine port though. That's the only reason they might not bother imo.

Well, obviously not every Japanese company has the resources Capcom has. I was just pointing out their healthiness despite for the most part forgoing the Japanese market. Mostly because of how the initial question was worded and to point out that a Japanese company can thrive while not on the Switch if they have the resources to make the big budget games that the western video game market feasts upon. The point remains, if you want Japanese sales, then you better be on the Switch.

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Capcom's health is debatable. They were already the smallest of the "big" Japanese publishers and their continual failure in the mobile space has just aggrivated that. They're tiny compared Nintendo, Square Enix, Bandai Namco, even Sega or Konami. And Konami barely makes console games now.

And that's despite Capcom having record revenues and insane sales recently (MHW). Actually they're closer to Koei Tecmo than any of the bigger companies.

 

[Lite_Agent]

Dengeki - Fiscal Year (April to January)

• Hardware: 5.14 million units (-17.7%) / 154.1 billion Yen (-11.2%)
• Software: 23.16 million units (-16.9%) / 150.7 billion Yen (-13.1%)
• Total: 347 billion Yen to 304.8 billion Yen (-12.2%)

Hardware:

• Nintendo Switch: 3.39 million units (+10.9%)
• PlayStation 4: 1.25 million units (-23.1%)
• PlayStation Vita: 110 000 units (-50.6%)
• Nintendo 3DS: 390 000 units (-70.9%).

Software:

• Nintendo Switch: 12.6 million units (+63.5%)
• PlayStation 4: 7.79 million units (-13.8%)
• PlayStation Vita: 720 000 units (-44.2%)
• Nintendo 3DS: 1 970 000 units (-79%)

Market share:

• Nintendo Switch: 39.9% > 59%
• PlayStation 4: 35.7% > 33.1%
• Nintendo 3DS: 20.3% > 5.2%
• PlayStation Vita: 2.4%

http://dengekionline.com/elem/000/001/879/1879970/

 

[lemonhat]

Wow at the 3DS collapse. When Nintendo consoles die, they really die. I'd have thought the lack of backwards compatibility on the Switch and it's price would have meant a more gradual decline for the 3DS. Although I guess it is a pretty old and dated piece of hardware at this point and has sold a tonne. End of an era.

 

[Kerotan]

Anthem is looking good. Up to 3rd on amazon and second on COMG. I'm feeling more confident in a 100k+ opening at retail.

 

[Jon Carter]

Wow at the 3DS collapse. When Nintendo consoles die, they really die. I'd have thought the lack of backwards compatibility on the Switch and it's price would have meant a more gradual decline for the 3DS. Although I guess it is a pretty old and dated piece of hardware at this point and has sold a tonne. End of an era.

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The Switch came out two years ago already. The 3DS' death wasn't particularly fast.

 

[Chris1964]

The Switch came out two years ago already. The 3DS' death wasn't particularly fast.

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3DS is on life support at Japan since the beginning of 2018.

 

[Aostia82]

Pes on switch would be day 0 for me

 

[Absolute]

It would be the first PES to release on a Nintendo console, no? I remember the ISS games being on Nintendo.

 

[fiendcode]

It would be the first PES to release on a Nintendo console, no? I remember the ISS games being on Nintendo.

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No. WE/PES made it's way to GBA, GC, DS, Wii and 3DS.

 

[Aostia82]

It would be the first PES to release on a Nintendo console, no? I remember the ISS games being on Nintendo.

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Nope, in Japan there was at least 1 winning eleven game for the GC
Plus the wii games
portable nintendo hw had pes too

 

[Chris1964]

I haven't checked other retailers but looking just at Amazon, Mario & Luigi is 40% off and Persona Q2 70%. Everything that came out last months underperformed or bombed. Nintendo knows what's coming for Kirby but there's nothing that can be done, just wait for the inevitable.

 

[ILikeFeet]

while it might be a typo, Yokai Watch 3 for the switch would at least do better than the 3DS game (in the west). maybe not by much, but it would be something.

for japan, it would be a good port as it's both games in one, making it a pretty sellable package

 

[Jon Carter]

3DS is on life support at Japan since the beginning of 2018.

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That's just what happens after your successor is out for a year and is wildly successful. Which systems had a longer, more successful tail than the 3DS after their successor came out?

 

[Fularu]

It would be the first PES to release on a Nintendo console, no? I remember the ISS games being on Nintendo.

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PES came out for gc, wii, DS and 3DS (up to 2014)

 

[Kerotan]

3DS is on life support at Japan since the beginning of 2018.

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Do you think it will make it to the 25m milestone?

 

[foxuzamaki]

Fire Emblem went to the high end of Nintendo pricing.

Normal Edition - ¥6.980
Limited Edition - ¥9.980

Comparing to ¥4.980 of 3DS it's a 40% rise but it shouldn't affect sales since it has a dedicated fanbase.

Astral Chains is even higher

Normal Edition - ¥7.980
Limited Edition - ¥9.980

Collaborations with third parties will be higher priced from Nintendo's own IPs which almost all will play at ¥5.980. Fire Emblem could be the only exception this year.

As for Japanese expectations, things will be slow for Astral, it will depend heavily on west, Three Houses will be one of the best selling FE, if not the best.

Dragon Quest is the title everyone waits the reveal of price and how high SE will go.

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why doesnt Japanese games have a standard pricing? Like three houses and astral chain will both be 60 dollars here and unless AC is like 5 hours long with no content I'd have no problem buying both at that price. But why does it cost more than three houses when FE is probably the top biller between the two?

 

[Absolute]

No. WE/PES made it's way to GBA, GC, DS, Wii and 3DS.

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I am an idiot. Of course it did. To explain my true dumbness I had tons of fun with the Wii version and using the pointer.

Though to avoid complete humiliation I meant a feature parity version with the PS3/4. It always felt like there was a gimmick to the Nintendo version and it would be similar to the PC version where older builds were used as a base for development. I think we will see a feature complete version this time.

 

[Fularu]

I am an idiot. Of course it did. To explain my true dumbness I had tons of fun with the Wii version and using the pointer.

Though to avoid complete humiliation I meant a feature parity version with the PS3/4. It always felt like there was a gimmick to the Nintendo version and it would be similar to the PC version where older builds were used as a base for development. I think we will see a feature complete version this time.

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Up to 2009 the Wii version was arguably the best one

 

[Epilexia]

Other interesting question at this point in which game will sell more copies in the Golden week.

'New Super Mario Bros U Deluxe' or 'Yoshi's Crafted World'.

My personal bet is 'New Super Mario Bros U Deluxe'.

 

[Deleted member 3700]

Girls und Panzer launches next week on Switch. Looking at its sales on PS4... the sales is not bad?

PS4 Girls und Panzer: Dream Tank Match 39.825 69.362 Bandai Namco 22/02/2018

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Hopefully it will sell ok on Switch.

 

[Chris1964]

That's just what happens after your successor is out for a year and is wildly successful. Which systems had a longer, more successful tail than the 3DS after their successor came out?

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Many Sony systems.

If Nintendo had dropped 3DS support at the end of 2017 we would be talking for a good and successful transition, the attempt to keep it alive for longer than it could was unsuccessful and a waste of resources.

 

[Jon Carter]

Many Sony systems.

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There are just four Sony systems that can even be considered, so how many is "many"? I can definitely see the PS2 and PSP having a longer, more successful tail, because the PS3 and Vita were such massive bombs right out of the gate. The 3DS slowing down faster than those post-Switch wouldn't be surprising considering the Switch has been a hit since the beginning.

IMO, the 3DS is seeing a completely normal end of life. The only thing unusual about the 3DS' lifespan is that it peaked early due to the price cut, but it's behaving as expected for the highly successful system that it was until the end. Its "collapse" is natural.

 

[Chris1964]

PS1, PS2, PS3, PSP and 99% PS4 have a longer tail from 3DS. Even Vita for the disaster it was has software support for years after its unofficial death and with some important games.

3DS lasted exactly 2 years after Switch launch and the second of them was a year with less than 20 releases with many of them being failures.

 

[Jon Carter]

PS1, PS2, PS3, PSP and 99% PS4 have a longer tail from 3DS. Even Vita for the disaster it was has software support for years after its unofficial death and with some important games.

3DS lasted exactly 2 years after Switch launch and the second of them was a year with less than 20 releases with many of them being failures.

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Number of releases is a very flawed metric because every system and every gen goes differently. Do we have yearly hardware and software totals for every system going back to the PS1 to compare the amount of hardware/software sold every year after the release of the successor?

 

[Vinnk]

Wow at the 3DS collapse. When Nintendo consoles die, they really die. I'd have thought the lack of backwards compatibility on the Switch and it's price would have meant a more gradual decline for the 3DS. Although I guess it is a pretty old and dated piece of hardware at this point and has sold a tonne. End of an era.

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The 3DS hardware was out of date before it even released. But since it was the only place to play Nintendo Titles, Monster Hunter and Yokai-Watch it did fine. Now without new titles coming out (just ports) it's just ugly out of date hardware. Not surprised in the least that the market turned it's back on the 3DS.

 

[Chris1964]

Number of releases is a very flawed metric because every system and every gen goes differently. Do we have yearly hardware and software totals for every system going back to the PS1 to compare the amount of hardware/software sold every year after the release of the successor?

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I'm not talking for number of releases. 3DS is beaten hard at software tail sales from every Sony system except Vita. It had a succesful one year after its successor came out and then collapsed.

Even for Vita if you look at Dengeki software totals for FY2018, with 1,5 month remaining 3DS is at 2m and Vita at 700k.

 

[Mory Dunz]

Many Sony systems.

If Nintendo had dropped 3DS support at the end of 2017 we would be talking for a good and successful transition, the attempt to keep it alive for longer than it could was unsuccessful and a waste of resources.

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Ever since around the time of Ever Oasis and Hey Pikmin, I've felt these games were a waste of resources. And that was June 2017.

Even made a thread about it when it was still on GAF but many disagreed.

for instance Ever Oasis and Luigi's mansion have basically kept Grezzo occupied for years. Looking back, I'm not sure it was fully worth it.

 

[Chris1964]

Let's take Sony's first home console that underperformed in Japan, PS3. PS4 launched the same period of the year with Switch and PS3 with 3DS are perfectly comparable.These are CY retail software sales from Media Create.

PS3
2014 - 7.510.433
2015 - 4.185.655
2016 - 1.629.591
2017 - 225.470

3DS
2017 - 12.008.236
2018 < 2.500.000

 

[cvxfreak]

3DS hardware sales have actually been pretty good since the Switch launch. It's doing comparatively better than DS, and I don't think BC on 3DS alone can explain such a huge discrepancy.

DS
2011 - 657,787
2012 - 68,973

3DS
2017 - 1,662,034
2018 - 535,810
2019 - 51,897 (so far)

PS3 benefitted in its after years by sharing some cross-gen titles with PS4, siphoning sales away from that system for a little bit. I also imagine the PS Store generally being more vibrant than the pre-Switch eShop.

 

[sfortunato]

3DS hardware sales have actually been pretty good since the Switch launch. It's doing comparatively better than DS, and I don't think BC on 3DS alone can explain such a huge discrepancy.

DS
2011 - 657,787
2012 - 68,973

3DS
2017 - 1,662,034
2018 - 535,810
2019 - 51,897 (so far)

PS3 benefitted in its after years by sharing some cross-gen titles with PS4, siphoning sales away from that system for a little bit. I also imagine the PS Store generally being more vibrant than the pre-Switch eShop.

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Both DS and 3DS reached a critical installed base very early. DS was above 30m and 3DS is close to 25m. At a certain point they exhausted their potential customer base.

 

[Garlic]

Ever since around the time of Ever Oasis and Hey Pikmin, I've felt these games were a waste of resources. And that was June 2017.

Even made a thread about it when it was still on GAF but many disagreed.

for instance Ever Oasis and Luigi's mansion have basically kept Grezzo occupied for years. Looking back, I'm not sure it was fully worth it.

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Hey! Pikmin was good though. (And its not like people are chomping at the bit for an Arzest game on Switch lol)

 

[KtSlime]

why doesnt Japanese games have a standard pricing? Like three houses and astral chain will both be 60 dollars here and unless AC is like 5 hours long with no content I'd have no problem buying both at that price. But why does it cost more than three houses when FE is probably the top biller between the two?

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Because we actually have a free market?

 

[Chris1964]

3DS hardware sales have actually been pretty good since the Switch launch. It's doing comparatively better than DS, and I don't think BC on 3DS alone can explain such a huge discrepancy.

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New Nintendo 2DS LL came out at July 2017.

2017 was in general a big year for 3DS software releases.

 

[foxuzamaki]

Because we actually have a free market?

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I mean that's fine but im asking why, like how do publishers determine pricing

 

[cvxfreak]

New Nintendo 2DS LL came out at July 2017.

2017 was in general a big year for 3DS software releases.

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3DS YTD before New 2DS LL launch was 686,212, so it still did quite well for itself, all things considered. If 2DS never came out, I can't imagine sales would be dramatically lower.

Do the historically lower handheld attach rates apply to Japan too?

 

[Zedark]

Anybody want to talk about the sales potential for the Link's Awakening Remake? I think there's a couple of important aspects to this release:

- The game is a remake of Link's Awakening, which did around 540k according to Gamedatalibrary, and then another 314k for the gameboy color enhanced version
- It's a 2D Zelda, so it's a different series than the 3D Zelda which BOTW is currently raising to new levels

The question is: how much can a remake do compared to the original release, and how much can the awareness campaign that BOTW launched help raise sales for other Zelda projects?

Remake sales potential: To determine this, let's compare a couple of remakes for the Zelda franchise:
- Ocarina of Time:

N64    The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time    386.234    1.143.570    Nintendo    21/11/1998
3DS    The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D    182.998    636.571    Nintendo    16/06/2011

- Majora's Mash:

N64    The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask    314.044    601.542    Nintendo    27/04/2000
3DS    The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 3D    236.536    469.082    Nintendo    14/02/2015

To me, it seems that remakes have a decent sales potential, but typically don't sell more than, or even quite on par with, the original release.

BOTW effect: This is the more murky question to answer: BOTW is going to be the best-selling Zelda game in the franchise, quite possibly even when you only take the Switch sku into account. As a result, it's possible that this game managed to raise the awareness of the franchise as a whole. We didn't really see this effect with Hyrule Warriors, but that's a spin-off, so I don't think that proves the non-existence of this effect. A 2D Zelda, being more or less a mainline game, should see more of this effect. However, we have no precedence to estimate the extent to which this effect could raise sales, so ultimately it's anyone's guess.

In sum, I think this remake could do well over 500k: the Switch has massive software selling potential, higher than the 3DS, even. Additionally, I think the BOTW effect could lift sales further. It being a remake will hinder sales a little bit, but the fact that this remake is more transformed in terms of visuals (and presumably mechanics) should raise its relative potential imo. As a result, I think the game could do 800k lifetime.