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KtSlime

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,910
Tokyo
Are the expectations for Rise really lower than World? I know people want to keep optimism in check, but -- why would it sell less?
World was able to convince a lot of non Monster Hunter fans to giving the game a try because it was out of the "handheld ghetto", there is no guarantee that those people became permanent fans and would be back for another, let alone one on the Switch.
 
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Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
How big were Nintendo's expectation considering we are talking about a new fighting game Ip?
New fighting game IP from a major internal team. It wasn't just another game from Nintendo and aiming for one per generation entry being multiplayer it got zero boost from the success of the system. Now Nintendo has to think twice for a potential sequel in the future with has lost every relevance at Switch and fighting scene.
 

K Samedi

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,990
I'm sure Nintendo can do better investment than a sequel to a game that started with big expectations and didn't come close to meet them.
It will all depend on how they think they can improve things and Yabuki's influence. The concept was solid but the content was lacking for ARMS. If they can expand on what there is it can do better than 2 million. Nintendo does try several times, recent examples are Fire Emblem and Pikmin.
 

jnWake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,108
I don't think Nintendo ever commented on ARMS being a success or failure. However, the post-launch support for the game was rather short so we could use that to infer that maybe it wasn't as succesful as they expected. On the other hand, they put ARMS in Smash quite recently which could indicate they have interest on the property's future.

It's hard to say really.
 
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Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
It will all depend on how they think they can improve things and Yabuki's influence. The concept was solid but the content was lacking for ARMS. If they can expand on what there is it can do better than 2 million. Nintendo does try several times, recent examples are Fire Emblem and Pikmin.
Nintendo was ready to kill Fire Emblem if Awakening didn't succeed, there's a limit at how many times they try. Pikmin became million seller at failed Nintendo systems, bringing it over as example doesn't help Arms case.
 

Gartooth

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
8,440
I do wonder if ARMS being a multiplayer game was more damning to Nintendo's expectations of it? Like it may have been a game they expected to have a stronger community following with further updates and pushing their online services.

Contrasted to a "one and done" single player game that may not be expected to carry as long of a tail.
 

K Samedi

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,990
Nintendo was ready to kill Fire Emblem if Awakening didn't succeed, there's a limit at how many times they try. Pikmin became million seller at failed Nintendo systems, bringing it over as example doesn't help Arms case.
I agree but I think they will try out ARMS 2 and give it more time. I don't think they will bury the IP that quickly.
 

Glio

Member
Oct 27, 2017
24,533
Spain
I don't think Nintendo ever commented on ARMS being a success or failure. However, the post-launch support for the game was rather short so we could use that to infer that maybe it wasn't as succesful as they expected. On the other hand, they put ARMS in Smash quite recently which could indicate they have interest on the property's future.

It's hard to say really.
I think the support took longer than planned, Springtron was not in the initial plans
 

Deleted member 63122

User requested account closure
Banned
Jan 16, 2020
9,071
Did Fire Emblem ever reached 2 million before Awakening? Arms passed that milestone on the first entry. Granted, I don't know budget and expectations, but Nintendo is conservatives when it comes to those. Specially budgets.
 

Gartooth

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
8,440
In Pikmin's defense, its latest new entry (Pikmin 3) sold over 1 million copies on a platform that only sold 13.5 million units lifetime. Said platform also being one of the biggest failures in the history of Nintendo...
 
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Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
The problem with an Arms sequel is how many more will care comparing to 1 and if it worths the effort dedicating again internal resources for something with questionable potential. There isn't any guarantee that next entry will find so big interest but since there was investment from Nintendo at this IP maybe it will have another chance sometime in the future.
 

Deleted member 63122

User requested account closure
Banned
Jan 16, 2020
9,071
Yeah, I kind of see it like Mario Kart, sure F-zero is cool, but why waste money on that when MK is selling triple or quadruple of that F-Zero can do lifetime, yearly. Same with Arms, Smash is selling what Arms sold lifetime every two quarters. With Fire Emblem and other smaller Nintendo games, they don't have a similar equivalent. Which kinda explains Donkey Kong as well.
 

Glio

Member
Oct 27, 2017
24,533
Spain
The decision to include Min Min should have been made when ARMS sales were already well known. The characters and the gameplay have great potential, the limitation was the lack of content.

It is unfair to compare it with SSBU taking into account that it is a new ip and cannot recycle assets but it is evident that at the same price one offers much more
 

Deleted member 63122

User requested account closure
Banned
Jan 16, 2020
9,071
The decision to include Min Min should have been made when ARMS sales were already well known. The characters and the gameplay have great potential, the limitation was the lack of content.

It is unfair to compare it with SSBU taking into account that it is a new ip and cannot recycle assets but it is evident that at the same price one offers much more
Do we know that for sure? They added Fire Emblem characters before they were going to can the series.
 

Djehuty

Member
Sep 2, 2020
1,040
I don't think Nintendo ever commented on ARMS being a success or failure. However, the post-launch support for the game was rather short so we could use that to infer that maybe it wasn't as succesful as they expected. On the other hand, they put ARMS in Smash quite recently which could indicate they have interest on the property's future.

It's hard to say really.
Post launch support was supposed to be 4 characters but got extended to 5 due to the games success.
 

Tbone5189

Succ-essor
Member
Mar 25, 2020
4,919
New fighting game IP from a major internal team. It wasn't just another game from Nintendo and aiming for one per generation entry being multiplayer it got zero boost from the success of the system. Now Nintendo has to think twice for a potential sequel in the future with has lost every relevance at Switch and fighting scene.

I mean that's one way to look at it. Or a sequel down the line done by another team, maybe one of Nintendo partners as well. Doesn't have to be developed by the MK team. It wasn't a failure and it should end over 2.5mil which is still good for a new ip let alone a fighter
 

squall23

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,787
They NEED to make a Yu-Gi-Oh game for the Switch already, NEED I say!

Loved that card game as a kid, would definitely play a new game.
No YGO game will ever beat YGO 4. Not like people bought the game to play the game anyway. Konami's at the perfect place right now with real cards and online games.
 

Djehuty

Member
Sep 2, 2020
1,040
The problem with an Arms sequel is how many more will care comparing to 1 and if it worths the effort dedicating again internal resources for something with questionable potential. There isn't any guarantee that next entry will find so big interest but since there was investment from Nintendo at this IP maybe it will have another chance sometime in the future.
New fighting game IP from a major internal team. It wasn't just another game from Nintendo and aiming for one per generation entry being multiplayer it got zero boost from the success of the system. Now Nintendo has to think twice for a potential sequel in the future with has lost every relevance at Switch and fighting scene.
you know ARMS is going to sell around 3 mil lifetime right? you're acting like 2.4mil is a complete failure and ARMS has no chance of ever gaining an audience. it already has one.

I'm going to remind you ARMS outsold xenoblade 2. outsold every pikmin game, the majority of kirby games, and has outsold all but 2 fire emblem games. and that was on it's first try. and don't say because of Switch boost because you just said that "it got zero boost from the system".

were you expecting it to sell on Par with MK8 because it's made by the same team?! 2.4 mil is nothing to sneeze at.
 

Tbone5189

Succ-essor
Member
Mar 25, 2020
4,919
Nintendo was ready to kill Fire Emblem if Awakening didn't succeed, there's a limit at how many times they try. Pikmin became million seller at failed Nintendo systems, bringing it over as example doesn't help Arms case.

How do you explain Metroid?? I don't think ARMS2 is coming to NSW but I don't think it's dead as you make it out to be, even if you have a point with expectations were probably much greater that doesn't mean they won't try again/etc
 
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Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
2.4m on is nothing to celebrate either. There are multiple fighters that have topped 5m despite the supposed dead fighting scene that Arms went so well. Even a port of Pokken sold on par with Arms. Nintendo wanted to create something similar with Splatoon and it failed.
 

Deleted member 63122

User requested account closure
Banned
Jan 16, 2020
9,071
you know ARMS is going to sell around 3 mil lifetime right? you're acting like 2.4mil is a complete failure and ARMS has no chance of ever gaining an audience. it already has one.

I'm going to remind you ARMS outsold xenoblade 2. outsold every pikmin game, the majority of kirby games, and has outsold all but 2 fire emblem games. and that was on it's first try. and don't say because of Switch boost because you just said that "it got zero boost from the system".

were you expecting it to sell on Par with MK8 because it's made by the same team?! 2.4 mil is nothing to sneeze at.
I don't think you are understanding his point. His point is, is Arms a game they need? They already have a way more successful game that fill that Genre. They do not have something to fill for Xenoblade. Nintendo right now is trying to fill at least every genre of games themselves, because they never can depend on third parties to do so continuously.
 

Kakadu18

Banned
Dec 31, 2020
1,140
Yeah, I kind of see it like Mario Kart, sure F-zero is cool, but why waste money on that when MK is selling triple or quadruple of that F-Zero can do lifetime, yearly. Same with Arms, Smash is selling what Arms sold lifetime every two quarters. With Fire Emblem and other smaller Nintendo games, they don't have a similar equivalent. Which kinda explains Donkey Kong as well.
A console needs more than one game in every genre. Arms is very different from Smash and F-Zero is different from MK. Every console needs a variety of IPs to generate more general interest and value.
 

Deleted member 63122

User requested account closure
Banned
Jan 16, 2020
9,071
A console needs more than one game in every genre. Arms is very different from Smash and F-Zero is different from MK. Every console needs a variety of IPs to generate more general interest and value.
And third parties are covering that, so far, for Switch. Switch has Redout and Fast RMX that cover for F-Zero.
 

Kakadu18

Banned
Dec 31, 2020
1,140
I mean that's one way to look at it. Or a sequel down the line done by another team, maybe one of Nintendo partners as well. Doesn't have to be developed by the MK team. It wasn't a failure and it should end over 2.5mil which is still good for a new ip let alone a fighter
ARMS should already be very near if not at 2.5mil since it was at 2.38mil as of December 31st 2019. Just saying.
 

MysticGon

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 31, 2017
7,285
They were saying just Switch. That would not be "shedding 10 million", since when you look at the 16-17 million number for MHW, that includes a lot from PC plus some XB, as well as the Iceborne Master Edition.

I know and the PC/Master Edition might include some double dippers but the point is they are expecting a huge drop from that audience. Going from 13.7 million overseas sales down to 2-3 million. That would be comparing 1 launch on 1 platform vs 4 launches on 3 platforms as you say.

All that said, I agree with them that there will be a sharp drop and that World was an anomaly. My prediction wasn't as pessimistic but I think it will land somewhere between PlayStation and Xbox OG numbers.
 

Charamiwa

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,058
The problem for Arms isn't how much it sold, it's how much do people want a sequel. Is there general excitement for the IP that would guarantee growth? I don't think there is. It's kind of in a dead end.
 

Aostia82

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,366
I stil think that ARMS 2 will exists, because I can't see N non insisting on a new multimillion seller IP, looking at their past history
If the sequel won't succeed in becoming a 2-tier Nintendo IP (now it is a third-tier probably) in terms of sales, they will drop it

The problem for Arms isn't how much it sold, it's how much do people want a sequel. Is there general excitement for the IP that would guarantee growth? I don't think there is. It's kind of in a dead end.

How can we judge it?
I think for example that the reaction to Min Min being in Smash has been pretty positive and that the graphic novel that they recently confimerd to still be in production could help to broaden its appeal as IP outside the gaming boards/forums
 

Glio

Member
Oct 27, 2017
24,533
Spain
Yes, and Radiant Dawn released essentially at the same time as Brawl(a bit before for japan, a bit after for ROTW), so that failure of a game would also not have made much effects.
However, there has certainly been enough time between the release of ARMS and the Min Min DLC.
 

Deleted member 63122

User requested account closure
Banned
Jan 16, 2020
9,071
The problem for Arms isn't how much it sold, it's how much do people want a sequel. Is there general excitement for the IP that would guarantee growth? I don't think there is. It's kind of in a dead end.
We have to take into account, how many people bought it because of the Switch novelty and lack of software at the time? I'm one of those, honestly.
 

Kakadu18

Banned
Dec 31, 2020
1,140
2.4m on is nothing to celebrate either. There are multiple fighters that have topped 5m despite the supposed dead fighting scene that Arms went so well. Even a port of Pokken sold on par with Arms. Nintendo wanted to create something similar with Splatoon and it failed.
ARMS sold way more than Pokken Tournament DX.
 

evilmonkey

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,481
Canada
There's nothing indicating that ARMS didn't meet expectations. All we know is they only planned 4 DLC characters initially and ended up releasing 5. That's it.

They could just do Mario Kart and nothing else but their marketing and dev budgets aren't even close at all.