Media Create Sales: Week 51, 2020 (Dec 14 - Dec 20)

z0m3le · Dec 24, 2020

Guaraná said:
it's Nintendo, when it comes to hardware, it's always safe to think they will only do the basic.

I just disagree that there is more value in undershooting than overshooting, both are wrong, but if anything, overshooting is more fun. As for Nintendo, they get some credit for using newer hardware with the Switch, than Sony and Microsoft did with the PS4 and XB1 when they launched.

Tbone5189 · Dec 24, 2020

Guaraná said:
it's Nintendo, when it comes to hardware, it's always safe to think they will only do the basic.

Only basically the best selling hardware of all time 😉

Deleted member 15360 · Dec 24, 2020

Any plan of famitsu or MC tracking data like gsd or NPD in future

If you have heard anything cvxfreak

Eren Jäger · Dec 24, 2020

cvxfreak said:
It's one country versus an entire continent, so Japan could never really win that comparison.

That said, any manufacturer that ignores Japan is, imo, short sighted because there is a myriad of evidence that the rest of Asia is more likely to follow Japanese trends than Western ones. Economically, Asia is the most promising region with the highest potential for growth. Nintendo will have a head start because their products appeal to Japan.

The problem I see there is the absolute niche status of consoles in Asia. The console market is growing in China and SEA, but coming from low total sales in the past. Nintendo and Sony have to become much more aggressive in pushing consoles or produce more content for Andoid/IOS.

Zedark · Dec 24, 2020

Guaraná said:
it's Nintendo, when it comes to hardware, it's always safe to think they will only do the basic.

I mean, just days ago we found out that they upped the hardware specs from their original plan to the current spec which is much better and pretty close to the cutting edge of the time. That philosophy has been true in the past for sure, but it doesn't really apply to the Switch.

cvxfreak · Dec 24, 2020

Pranay said:
Any plan of famitsu or MC tracking data like gsd or NPD in future

If you have heard anything cvxfreak

Not sure what you're referring to. Can you be more specific?

Eren Jäger said:
The problem I see there is the absolute niche status of consoles in Asia. The console market is growing in China and SEA, but coming from low total sales in the past. Nintendo and Sony have to become much more aggressive in pushing consoles or produce more content for Andoid/IOS.

They're niche now but they won't always be.

Guaraná · Dec 24, 2020

Tbone5189 said:
Only basically the best selling hardware of all time 😉

Zedark said:
I mean, just days ago we found out that they upped the hardware specs from their original plan to the current spec which is much better and pretty close to the cutting edge of the time. That philosophy has been true in the past for sure, but it doesn't really apply to the Switch.

I was talking about the hardware specs of the switch pro.

Deleted member 15360 · Dec 24, 2020

Sorry missed mentioning I meant digital data in the coming years * cvxfreak

Guaraná · Dec 24, 2020

z0m3le said:
I just disagree that there is more value in undershooting than overshooting, both are wrong, but if anything, overshooting is more fun. As for Nintendo, they get some credit for using newer hardware with the Switch, than Sony and Microsoft did with the PS4 and XB1 when they launched.

I find the switch a fantastic piece of tech. but it's still a hardware that can barely hit 1080p and with 3DS Nintendo improved the specs in what? 30%? I don't think that would be enough for 4k.

Of course, hitting 4k in Box Boy is one thing, hitting 4k in a game like AoC is the problem here.
Even with DLSS.

And to tell the truth, I don't even think that this is necessary.
4k is a waste even on PC.

hiska-kun · Dec 24, 2020

Fularu said:
It will look better than 2013 since they released :

2 baseball games (PS4 and Switch) that did over 500k combined without digital
Momotaro that will be at 1.3 retail probably next week
PES

With digital they're probably crossing 2.5 millions for the year

With digital probably will beat 2013 indeed, but this graph is just retail Media Create software. It probably will end up around 2M in 2020 (including week 53).

Aostia82 · Dec 24, 2020

Wow at Momotaro and Switch impressive milestones

Oregano · Dec 24, 2020

Even if Asian markets remain relatively niche it's still a few million consumers on top of the Japan install base to sell games to.

Guaraná said:
I find the switch an amazing piece of tech. but it's still a hardware that can barely hit 1080p, unless and with 3DS Nintendo improved the specs in what? 30%? I don't think that would be enough for 4k.

Of course, hitting 4k in Box Boy is one thing, hitting 4k in a game like AoC is the problem here.
Even with DLSS.

And to tell the truth, I don't even think that this is necessary.

Not that I think whatever Switch revision will be everyone's dream machine but AoC not hitting 4K won't be an issue because it simply won't hit 4K, just as a lot of PS4/XBO games don't on Pro/X and how even some PS5/XSX games won't target 4K.

Eren Jäger · Dec 24, 2020

cvxfreak said:
Not sure what you're referring to. Can you be more specific?

They're niche now but they won't always be.

That's interesting, because you predict a breakthrough of consoles in asian markets and that consoles will be around for quite some years to come.

Deleted member 15360 · Dec 24, 2020

Depends which markets of Asia are we discussing here

Guaraná · Dec 24, 2020

Oregano said:
Not that I think whatever Switch revision will be everyone's dream machine but AoC not hitting 4K won't be an issue because it simply won't hit 4K, just as a lot of PS4/XBO games don't on Pro/X and how even some PS5/XSX games won't target 4K.

1080p60fps would be already amazing.
hell, 720p@60 and 1080p30 (both locked) would already be very good, actually.

Eren Jäger · Dec 24, 2020

Pranay said:
Depends which markets of Asia are we discussing here

IIRC Playstation has grown in Middle Eastern markets, and is also doing not bad in SEA. Nintendo seems to be doing well in South Korea, Taiwan and China right now. To be honest, I have no idea about South Asia.

Dekuman · Dec 24, 2020

Guaraná said:
man, you're in for some big disappointment with this Switch Pro prediction.

Guaraná said:
it's Nintendo, when it comes to hardware, it's always safe to think they will only do the basic.

Guaraná said:
I was talking about the hardware specs of the switch pro.

I don't disagree but i think there is almost no benefit for them to undershoot assuming what we're hearing is true. Because no one is available to make their current chip if rumors that TSMC is ending TX1 production in January.

The only 'disappointment' will be its not more powerful, like perhaps not going for higher clocks. But it's very likely they go with a more modern and powerful SoC because that's the only path forward.

Keep in mind Switch and Nintendo now has a hardware partner in nvidia that is driving a lot of this. They don't have the luxury of sitting on a very old process and extract maximum profit. Maybe z0m3le will have more insight, but I don't think they've dealt with TSMC before Switch, they were with fringe fabs in Japan like NEC on Wii U. Not sure who made their 3DS chips but 3DS was on ancient 45nm process as late as 2014

K Samedi · Dec 24, 2020

One of the other avenues of increasing Switch sales is improving the appeal of the Lite. It's a decent product but not good enough imo. It needs to be smaller and cheaper.

hiska-kun · Dec 24, 2020

South East Asia follows Japan and the rest of East Asia with cultural affinity. Nintendo still has full room for improvement its presence there, but it has potencial.
Middle East and India follows the west trends, Sony will keep growing there, while Nintendo is MIA.

ShiningBash · Dec 24, 2020

It's not that I distrust Furukawa, but it's too early to predict when the Succ is coming out. Nintendo 100% believed the 3DS would be selling decently in 2018/2019, but they wound down operations quickly once sales cratered. If the Switch sees a sharper than expected drop in 2022, they're not going to say "but Furukawa said that 2020 was the midpoint, we can't release a new console next year!" They're going to accelerate whatever plans they have for the Succ's release.

The only reason I think the 2024/2025 forecast might be accurate is because there's no dedicated portable device from a competitor that will force Nintendo's hand. At worst, Nintendo is going to lose minimal support from Western AAA devs over the next few years, but they'll still have first party and indies driving sales.

Oregano · Dec 24, 2020

hiska-kun said:
South East Asia follows Japan and the rest of East Asia with cultural affinity. Nintendo still has full room for improvement its presence there, but it has potencial.
Middle East and India follows the west trends, Sony will keep growing there, Nintendo is MIA there.

Nintendo's issue in most markets is that they are MIA.

aggrocrog said:
It's not that I distrust Furukawa, but it's too early to predict when the Succ is coming out. Nintendo 100% believed the 3DS would be selling decently in 2018/2019, but they wound down operations quickly once sales cratered. If the Switch sees a sharper than expected drop in 2022, they're not going to say "but Furukawa said that 2020 was the midpoint, we can't release a new console next year!" They're going to accelerate whatever plans they have for the Succ's release.

The only reason I think the 2024/2025 forecast might be accurate is because there's no dedicated portable device from a competitor that will force Nintendo's hand. At worst, Nintendo is going to lose minimal support from Western AAA devs over the next few years, but they'll still have first party and indies driving sales.

More relevant to this thread third party support is probably peaking next year and 2022 onwards will probably still be better than 2017(and maybe 2018).

Eren Jäger · Dec 24, 2020

hiska-kun said:
South East Asia follows Japan and the rest of East Asia with cultural affinity. Nintendo still has full room for improvement its presence there, but it has potencial.
Middle East and India follows the west trends, Sony will keep growing there, while Nintendo is MIA.

So, the total global market is growing for both of them. And due to cultural affinity with East Asia, niche Japanese games can grow there, especially on Nintendo platforms. More reasons for 3rd parties to go multiplat.

Zedark · Dec 24, 2020

aggrocrog said:
It's not that I distrust Furukawa, but it's too early to predict when the Succ is coming out. Nintendo 100% believed the 3DS would be selling decently in 2018/2019, but they wound down operations quickly once sales cratered. If the Switch sees a sharper than expected drop in 2022, they're not going to say "but Furukawa said that 2020 was the midpoint, we can't release a new console next year!" They're going to accelerate whatever plans they have for the Succ's release.

The only reason I think the 2024/2025 forecast might be accurate is because there's no dedicated portable device from a competitor that will force Nintendo's hand. At worst, Nintendo is going to lose minimal support from Western AAA devs over the next few years, but they'll still have first party and indies driving sales.

That's actually an interesting question: the new Nintendo leak suggested that the Switch originally would replace the 3DS well before 2018, so the initial plans were for the 3DS to be phased out earlier. The eventual shift to what the Switch became meant that they were going to position it more as a successor to WiiU at first. But Nintendo probably weren't as confident in the 3DS' longevity as you might think. The projects for the 3DS were mostly low budget affairs, anyway, more indicative to me of a contingency plan in case the Switch failed (in which case the 3DS would have remained more relevant anyway - but of course this didn't happen).

That said, they did see those games underperform beyond anyone's wildest nightmares, so the 3DS probably cratered quite a bit more than they expected. In the end, I think Nintendo didn't expect 3DS to be especially relevant, but did keep some support in order to be able to prolong it in case the Switch failed. What happened instead was that the Switch blew up and put the 3DS in an early grave.

Another reason why Nintendo might want to wait until 2024 is because they might be able to put out something that can rival the XSS, such that third party support is more feasible than for the current Switch. I feel there is some interest from bigger third parties who might want to dip their toe but who aren't willing to put in a Witcher 3-tier effort. Making a strong system might help Nintendo and third parties take the next step and increase their presence (not like PS/XB quite yet, of course, but a stronger presence than is currently the case). What we are currently seeing is that the big publishers with the demanding games (or who perceive their own games to be demanding, like Bamco) are the only ones really waiting on making ports, or forgoing ports altogether. Waiting until 2024 and bringing out a powerful system (which would be the cutting edge level that the Tegra X1 was in 2017) could make that support more prevalent.

Lelouch0612 · Dec 24, 2020

Oregano said:
Nintendo's issue in most markets is that they are MIA.

More relevant to this thread third party support is probably peaking next year and 2022 onwards will probably still be better than 2017(and maybe 2018).

For 3rd parties, it will be a long time before support is worse than in 2017/2018. Switch gained too much ground since then.

ika · Dec 24, 2020

TorianElecdra said:
Switch underperforming last year was unexpected. Seems like a worldwide thing too. Maybe momentum is waning.

This is a meme/sarcasm/copypasta, right?

AquaWateria · Dec 24, 2020

Pikmin is just straight up doing work. I'm really happy for the series.

Chris1964 · Dec 24, 2020

Week 52, 2020 (Dec 21 - Dec 27)

{2020.12.21}
[PS4] Anima: Gate Of Memories - Arcane Edition _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (H2 Interactive) (¥3.100)
____________

{2020.12.22}
[NSW] Nekopara Vol.4 _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <ADV> (CFK) (¥1.500)

[PS4] Nekopara Vol.4 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (CFK) (¥1.500)
[PS4] de Blob 2 _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (THQ Nordic Japan) (¥2.700)

[XB1] Override 2: Super Mech League _Download Version_ |DL| # <ACT> (Modus Games) (¥3.345)
[XB1] Override 2: Super Mech League _Download Version_ |DL| (Ultraman Edition) <ACT> (Modus Games) (¥4.227)

[XBS] Override 2: Super Mech League _Download Version_ |DL| # <ACT> (Modus Games) (¥3.345)
[XBS] Override 2: Super Mech League _Download Version_ |DL| (Ultraman Edition) <ACT> (Modus Games) (¥4.227)
____________

{2020.12.23}
[PS4] 16-Bit Soccer _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <SPT> (Sprakelsoft) (¥600)
[PS4] Minna no Tsume Shogi Nyuumon-hen _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <TBL> (Unbalance) (¥500)

{2020.12.24}
[NSW] Earth Defense Force: World Brothers <ACT> (D3Publisher) (¥7.480)
[NSW] Earth Defense Force: World Brothers Double Purchase Pack {Earth Defense Force: World Brothers x 2} <ACT> (D3Publisher) (¥9.980)
[NSW] Earth Defense Force: World Brothers (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (D3Publisher) (¥6.800)
[NSW] Aleste Collection <Aleste \ Aleste II \ GG Aleste \ GG Aleste II \ GG Aleste 3> # <STG> (M2) (¥6.800)
[NSW] Aleste Collection <Aleste \ Aleste II \ GG Aleste \ GG Aleste II \ GG Aleste 3> (Game Gear Micro Bundled Version) <STG> (M2) (¥14.800)
[NSW] Aleste Collection <Aleste \ Aleste II \ GG Aleste \ GG Aleste II \ GG Aleste 3> (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <STG> (M2) (¥4.500)
[NSW] Vampyr # <RPG> (Game Source Entertainment) (¥6.980)
[NSW] Vampyr (Special Edition) <RPG> (Game Source Entertainment) (¥9.380)
[NSW] Vampyr (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Game Source Entertainment) (¥6.980)
[NSW] Fight of Gods # <FTG> (Cosen) (¥2.700)
[NSW] Fight of Gods (Special Edition) <FTG> (Cosen) (¥5.500)
[NSW] Sniper Elite 4 <ACT> (Game Source Entertainment) (¥4.980)
[NSW] Let's Sing 2021 _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| # <ACT> (Koch Media) (¥3.818)
[NSW] Let's Sing 2021 _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| (Platinum Edition) <ACT> (Koch Media) (¥7.090)
[NSW] Death end re;Quest _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <RPG> (Idea Factory) (¥4.364)
[NSW] Pachi-Slot Univa Oukoku: A Project _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <TBL> (Dorart) (¥2.727)
[NSW] Super Real Mahjong: Graffiti _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <TBL> (Mighty Craft) (¥2.254)
[NSW] Wingspan _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <TBL> (Monster Couch) (¥1.864)
[NSW] Dragon's Lair Trilogy <Dragon's Lair \ Dragon's Lair II: Time Warp \ Space Ace> _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <ACT> (Rainy Frog) (¥1.818)
[NSW] Akita Oga Mystery Guide: The Frozen Silverbell Flower (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Flyhigh Works) (¥1.818)
[NSW] Mask of Mists _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <ADV> (Sometimes You) (¥1.364)
[NSW] Clumsy Rush _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <ACT> (RedDeerGames) (¥1.090)
[NSW] Kaptain Brawe: A Brawe New World _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <ADV> (Ocean Media) (¥954)
[NSW] Kingdom Tales _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <SLG> (Ocean Media) (¥954)
[NSW] Great Conqueror: Rome _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <SLG> (Circle Entertainment) (¥909)
[NSW] Demon's Tier+ _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <RPG> (Cowcat) (¥909)
[NSW] Arcade Archives: Gradius III _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <STG> (Hamster) (¥762)
[NSW] Drunken Fist _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <ACT> (EastAsiaSoft) (¥727)
[NSW] Fatal Fury: First Contact _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <FTG> (SNK) (¥727)
[NSW] Fox n Forests _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <ADV> (Shinyuden) (¥718)
[NSW] Smart Moves _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <RPG> (Ternox) (¥581)
[NSW] Void Source _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <STG> (Ternox) (¥581)
[NSW] 16-Bit Soccer _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <SPT> (Sprakelsoft) (¥504)
[NSW] G-Mode Archives 26: Ore no Sentai Oranger _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <ACT> (G-Mode) (¥455)

[PS4] Earth Defense Force: World Brothers <ACT> (D3Publisher) (¥7.480)
[PS4] Earth Defense Force: World Brothers (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| # <ACT> (D3Publisher) (¥6.800)
[PS4] Earth Defense Force: World Brothers (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| (Deluxe Edition) <ACT> (D3Publisher) (¥9.000)
[PS4] Aleste Collection <Aleste \ Aleste II \ GG Aleste \ GG Aleste II \ GG Aleste 3> # <STG> (M2) (¥6.800)
[PS4] Aleste Collection <Aleste \ Aleste II \ GG Aleste \ GG Aleste II \ GG Aleste 3> (Game Gear Micro Bundled Version) <STG> (M2) (¥14.800)
[PS4] Aleste Collection <Aleste \ Aleste II \ GG Aleste \ GG Aleste II \ GG Aleste 3> (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <STG> (M2) (¥4.500)
[PS4] Vampyr # <RPG> (Game Source Entertainment) (¥7.480)
[PS4] Vampyr (Special Edition) <RPG> (Game Source Entertainment) (¥9.880)
[PS4] Vampyr (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Game Source Entertainment) (¥6.980)
[PS4] Dragon's Lair Trilogy <Dragon's Lair \ Dragon's Lair II: Time Warp \ Space Ace> _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Rainy Frog) (¥1.818)
[PS4] Shiny Ski Resort _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <SLG> (Kairosoft) (¥1.364)
[PS4] Arcade Archives: Gradius III _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <STG> (Hamster) (¥762)
[PS4] Drunken Fist _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (EastAsiaSoft) (¥727)
____________

{2020.12.25}
[NSW] Bit.Trip Core _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <ACT> (QubicGames) (¥455)
[NSW] Bit.Trip Beat _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <ACT> (QubicGames) (¥455)
[NSW] Bit.Trip Void _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <ACT> (QubicGames) (¥455)
[NSW] Bit.Trip Runner _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <ACT> (QubicGames) (¥455)
[NSW] Bit.Trip Fate _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <ACT> (QubicGames) (¥455)
[NSW] Bit.Trip Flux _Nintendo Switch Download Software_ |DL| <ACT> (QubicGames) (¥455)

MasonADC · Dec 24, 2020

ika said:
This is a meme/sarcasm/copypasta, right?

I mean the holiday is underperforming from last year, albeit by a tiny bit. He's probably serious

Kaitos · Dec 24, 2020

sfortunato said:
Pikmin 3 is absolutely killing it.

This makes me SO happy.

ItsOKAY · Dec 24, 2020

cvxfreak said:
I had to stop posting for a few years because I had a job that made it too sensitive to post. That's ended and now that I'm a mod, I'm trying to find threads to participate it more often.

Remember to discuss sales in good faith, people ;)

Man, great to see you back! And great to have your opinions and thinking in out MC Threads back:)

Guaraná · Dec 24, 2020

Switch is a kind of midway between the PS360 and a PS4/Xone, this 50% distance that was left to reach the last-gen machines hurts Switch support a little. If the Switch 2 can cross that barrier and be a full-blown XSS-like machine, I believe every single 3rd party will (sorry MS) jump in.

The ideal would be a 2023 release, but 2024 might be more doable due to technology development.

DLSS will be a huge thing for Nintendo here.

I believe in a big jump from Switch to Switch 2, but a small jump from Switch to Switch Pro.

ShiningBash · Dec 24, 2020

Zedark said:
That's actually an interesting question: the new Nintendo leak suggested that the Switch originally would replace the 3DS well before 2018, so the initial plans were for the 3DS to be phased out earlier. The eventual shift to what the Switch became meant that they were going to position it more as a successor to WiiU at first. But Nintendo probably weren't as confident in the 3DS' longevity as you might think. The projects for the 3DS were mostly low budget affairs, anyway, more indicative to me of a contingency plan in case the Switch failed (in which case the 3DS would have remained more relevant anyway - but of course this didn't happen).

That said, they did see those games underperform beyond anyone's wildest nightmares, so the 3DS probably cratered quite a bit more than they expected. In the end, I think Nintendo didn't expect 3DS to be especially relevant, but did keep some support in order to be able to prolong it in case the Switch failed. What happened instead was that the Switch blew up and put the 3DS in an early grave.

Another reason why Nintendo might want to wait until 2024 is because they might be able to put out something that can rival the XSS, such that third party support is more feasible than for the current Switch. I feel there is some interest from bigger third parties who might want to dip their toe but who aren't willing to put in a Witcher 3-tier effort. Making a strong system might help Nintendo and third parties take the next step and increase their presence (not like PS/XB quite yet, of course, but a stronger presence than is currently the case). What we are currently seeing is that the big publishers with the demanding games (or who perceive their own games to be demanding, like Bamco) are the only ones really waiting on making ports, or forgoing ports altogether. Waiting until 2024 and bringing out a powerful system (which would be the cutting edge level that the Tegra X1 was in 2017) could make that support more prevalent.

I agree that the longer they wait, the better the Succ can end up being (re: power + cost + battery life). However, I think the lack of a 3DS contingency plan is also what will make them more sensitive to dips in sales. With Sony/MS, they could ride out the decline in hardware sales because both were cleaning up in PS Plus and GamePass subscriptions. NSO isn't quite there yet and so I expect Nintendo to make adjustments quickly whenever they see a global decline.

Maybe that's when we'll see a GBA Classic or another hardware revision. Overall, I agree that it's reasonable for Nintendo to be far more confident in the Switch's staying power than they (publicly) were with the 3DS. That will result in much better first party offerings going into 2022/2023.

Jon Carter · Dec 24, 2020

With Ring Fit crossing the 2 million mark this week and Super Mario Maker 2 the 1 million mark last week, I was reminded of this conversation and holy shit, how things can change in just a year.

Jon Carter said:
It'd be quite something if a new IP that came out of nowhere released a month after being announced outsold Super Mario Maker 2.

Chris1964 said:
Super Mario Maker 2 will likely sell over 2m, how much do you think Ring Fit will do.

Jon Carter said:
Well, I said "it'd" not "it'll," so I wasn't saying it's likely, merely a possibility. But I don't believe Mario Maker 2 will hit two million in Japan. No idea yet about Ring Fit. I wasn't seeing it as even a million seller but word of mouth is very promising.

Chris1964 said:
For Mario Maker 2 not hitting 2m in Japan many weird things must happen.

Man God said:
Like an unexpected sequel cutting off legs or a war/natural disaster so horrifying that it cut off all commerce. Otherwise it is guaranteed.

The big surprise for MM2 is what they do with those unused game style slots. Paid expansion with something expected like Mario USA style or something completely bonkers like a world map editor.

Deleted member 10737 · Dec 24, 2020

pikmin 3 deluxe doing so well is great news, but also... what it does too too good so nintendo thinks this is all the pikmin switch needs and keeps 4 for the next system?

Oregano · Dec 24, 2020

Lelouch0612 said:
For 3rd parties, it will be a long time before support is worse than in 2017/2018. Switch gained too much ground since then.

I wanted to play it safe, especially in comparison to 2018(although 2018 wasn't too great either). Anyway the proper comparison is proper the later years of the DS or 3DS in which case it should almost certainly be better, especially in comparison to the latter.

Kozy · Dec 24, 2020

So it looks like we can blame Man God for the pandemic then.

Chris1964 · Dec 24, 2020

For Mario Maker 2 things didn't change a lot, it won't end far from 2m in the end despite Nintendo cutting down the support. Ring Fit Adventure exceeded expectations by far.

Aostia82 · Dec 24, 2020

cvxfreak said:
I had to stop posting for a few years because I had a job that made it too sensitive to post. That's ended and now that I'm a mod, I'm trying to find threads to participate it more often.

Remember to discuss sales in good faith, people ;)

This is GREAT news to me ;)

sfortunato · Dec 24, 2020

mazi said:
pikmin 3 deluxe doing so well is great news, but also... what it does too too good so nintendo thinks this is all the pikmin switch needs and keeps 4 for the next system?

Nah. Pikmin might be a 2021 game after all and given the success of Deluxe, it might even be a big release all things considered.

Man God · Dec 24, 2020

Blame yourself or Man God.

zroid · Dec 24, 2020

mazi said:
pikmin 3 deluxe doing so well is great news, but also... what it does too too good so nintendo thinks this is all the pikmin switch needs and keeps 4 for the next system?

i don't think this is close to MK8 situation. it's selling well in Japan but haven't sales in the west been lacklustre? I think the sales for Pikmin 3 deluxe ensure without a doubt that Pikmin 4 will be released. And it will have a chance to take the series to new heights if it's timed and marketed properly. It's going to need Switch's installed base to do that.

Deleted member 10737 · Dec 24, 2020

sfortunato said:
Nah. Pikmin might be a 2021 game after all and given the success of Deluxe, it might even be a big release all things considered.

zroid said:
i don't think this is close to MK8 situation. it's selling well in Japan but haven't sales in the west been lacklustre? I think the sales for Pikmin 3 deluxe ensure without a doubt that Pikmin 4 will be released. And it will have a chance to take the series to new heights if it's timed and marketed properly. It's going to need Switch's installed base to do that.

you guys are probably right.
but now that you say it, while pikmin 4 will likely do very well in japan, 3 deluxe not doing too hot in the west is not a great sign for the sequel. 3 deluxe, like most wii u ports, was basically a new game for the vast majority of switch's userbase but it didn't really have much staying power in western charts. obviously it'll have more hype and marketing around it but it might also be a case of the IP just not being as big outside of japan as it is in japan, going forwards.

Tbone5189 · Dec 24, 2020

Guaraná said:
Switch is a kind of midway between the PS360 and a PS4/Xone, this 50% distance that was left to reach the last-gen machines hurts Switch support a little. If the Switch 2 can cross that barrier and be a full-blown XSS-like machine, I believe every single 3rd party will (sorry MS) jump in.

The ideal would be a 2023 release, but 2024 might be more doable due to technology development.

DLSS will be a huge thing for Nintendo here.

I believe in a big jump from Switch to Switch 2, but a small jump from Switch to Switch Pro.

2025 spring. There are so many factors on why it won't come before 2024 imo

Chris1964 said:
For Mario Maker 2 things didn't change a lot, it won't end far from 2m in the end despite Nintendo cutting down the support. Ring Fit Adventure exceeded expectations by far.

Tbf smm2 should of had way more updates and additional post content that many of us thought would happen

Joxer · Dec 24, 2020

Fire Emblem, Kirby or Xenoblade don't have munch visibilty in Western sales charts outside of the first couple of weeks, either. No-one would say they did poorly outside of Japan. Until we get the results from Nintendo, we can't really comment on Pikmin's performance.

And once again, 2-4 million range for games like this is perfectly fine. Not everything in a publisher's portfolio is designed to be a blockbuster.

zroid · Dec 24, 2020

mazi said:
you guys are probably right.
but now that you say it, while pikmin 4 will likely do very well in japan, 3 deluxe not doing too hot in the west is not a great sign for the sequel. 3 deluxe, like most wii u ports, was basically a new game for the vast majority of switch's userbase but it didn't really have much staying power in western charts. obviously it'll have more hype and marketing around it but it might also be a case of the IP just not being as big outside of japan as it is in japan, going forwards.

Yeah. P3DX has been a success, especially in JP, but i wouldn't call it a megahit by any means. For me it is definitely in that sweetspot where it makes sense to release a sequel to capitalize on the momentum. I don't know if Pikmin 4 will be a huge hit but it absolutely has the potential to be million seller in Japan and should do okay globally.

Tbone5189 · Dec 24, 2020

So comparisons I'll be doing is NSW year 5 vs 3DS Year5-7 combined. NSW will be about 300k-400k behind 3ds heading into week 1 but I believe in it.

FYI

2.190mil: 3DS 2015
1.874mil: 3DS 2016
1.827mil: 3DS 2017

Lelouch0612 · Dec 24, 2020

zroid said:
Yeah. P3DX has been a success, especially in JP, but i wouldn't call it a megahit by any means. For me it is definitely in that sweetspot where it makes sense to release a sequel to capitalize on the momentum. I don't know if Pikmin 4 will be a huge hit but it absolutely has the potential to be million seller in Japan and should do okay globally

If Pikmin 3 DX is likely to cross 1m in Japan, I think it is fair to say that a new entry could do 1.5m+ without trouble.

AquaWateria · Dec 24, 2020

mazi said:
you guys are probably right.
but now that you say it, while pikmin 4 will likely do very well in japan, 3 deluxe not doing too hot in the west is not a great sign for the sequel. 3 deluxe, like most wii u ports, was basically a new game for the vast majority of switch's userbase but it didn't really have much staying power in western charts. obviously it'll have more hype and marketing around it but it might also be a case of the IP just not being as big outside of japan as it is in japan, going forwards.

You forget Pikmin has Miyamoto's backing so we will definitely get Pikmin 4 eventually.

I also doubt western sales are gonna be factored in much because at the end of the day not all franchises are supposed to be big hits. As long it does decently then it should be good.

ShiningBash · Dec 24, 2020

Tbone5189 said:
2025 spring. There are so many factors on why it won't come before 2024 imo

We all debate this endlessly (and I'm more intrigued by 6m Japan 2021 potential), but Spring 2025 would be an unprecedented 8 years for the Switch. The mighty DS was 6 years and 3 months between the Japanese launches. The Wii was also 6 years.

I think fall 2023 would be ambitious, but 2025 would be damaging. Summer 2024 is enough time to have a portable PS4 Pro that costs $400 with a nice lineup of games including Odyssey 2 and MK9. With BOTW 2 slipping to 2021 or 2022, I don't think we see a true Zelda follow-up until the end of the Succ's lifecycle.

Man God · Dec 24, 2020

Even the Famicom only lasted 6 years and change as the top dog.

Media Create Sales: Week 51, 2020 (Dec 14 - Dec 20)

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Tens across the board!

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