Media Create Sales: Week 51, 2020 (Dec 14 - Dec 20)

[K Samedi]

His numbers are too low but those are way too high, Switch is not selling 40 million lifetime.

After 2021 i expect Switch to have a consistent 30% drop every years before the successor comes out, it will surpass 30 million but won't reach DS 33 million.

Click to shrink...

I think the numbers are a tad optimistic, but nothing impossible. My guess is that the next Switch model will be aimed at 4K and basically be a 4K machine like the PS pro was to the PS4 and lots of people will upgrade. Those sales, like with the DS, contains a lot of double dippers. Nintendo will also push lots of big titles with 4K support like Zelda. I don't see any reason why the new device would be anything but a big hit. Eventually the new Switch it will also get some exclusives that will try to expand the market even further and keep the sales active for as long as possible.

 

[Mbolibombo]

Software Numbers.. crazy.

Also: Isnt 2020 53 weeks?

 

[LostCauseUnite!]

If the TSMC rumors are true and Tegra X1 is ending production early next year, the new model will be made at Samsung and based on Ampere, it seems like a much more potent refresh than normal, so the sales curve would change much more drastically than a N3DS type of model. That would extend the mature portion of the sales curve to ~3 years, not ~1, thus we should expect a much softer fall if this is the case. Something like:
2021: ~6M
2022: ~5M
2023: ~4.5M
2024: ~4M
2025: ~3M (successor or another iteration launched here)

Click to shrink...

I think that's fair, assuming they go for the 3DS->N3DS route, they'll have hardware for a couple of months, and entering a replacement SKU before entering the decline of the original main SKU can let it have a more graceful decline before the successor hits, and releasing a successor at the time to pick up the steam before it fully hits the floor, giving wii u syndrome. And since they have all hands on deck with a single platform they can have software for a while now rather than split it up, assuming they don't mess it up and 3rd parties don't outright abandon the platform.

And next year is expected to be a strong software year, not 100% on hardware but the chance is there considering it will be 4 years old, similar time to the other portables.

edit: though, your numbers may be a little too high.

 

[Mpl90]

Top 10 cut-offs for Weeks 50 across the years (Media Create for 2010 and 2011, then Famitsu)

2020 - 2 new entries in Top 10

10./16. [NSW] Super Mario Party # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2018.10.05} (¥5.980) - 22.414 / 1.657.894 (+52%)

2019 - 1 new entry in Top 10

10./09. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2019.06.28} (¥5.980) - 19.466 / 739.734 <80-100%> (+58%)

2018 - 3 new entries in Top 10

10./00. [NSW] Peach Ball: Senran Kagura # <TBL> (Marvelous) {2018.12.13} (¥4.980) - 12.629 / NEW <60-80%>

2017 - 3 new entries in Top 10

10./00. [PS4] Digimon Story: Cyber Sleuth - Hacker's Memory # <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2017.12.14} (¥6.800) - 18.815 / NEW <60-80%>

2016 - 3 new entries in Top 10

10./11. [WIU] Minecraft: Wii U Edition <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios) {2016.06.23} (¥3.600) - 15.036 / 208.178 <80-100%> (+72%)

2015 - 5 new entries in Top 10

10./00. [PSV] The Idolm@ster: Must Songs - Red Board / Blue Board <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2015.12.10} (¥6.156) - 24.453 / NEW <40-60%>

2014 - 4 new entries in Top 10

10./00. [PS3] Nobunaga's Ambition: Creation with Power-Up Kit # <SLG> (Koei Tecmo) {2014.12.11} (¥10.584) - 20.483 / NEW <60-80%>

2013 - 3 new entries in Top 10

10./12. [3DS] Monster Hunter 4 # <ACT> (Capcom) {2013.09.14} (¥5.990) - 35.660 / 3.206.695 <80-100%> (+39%)

2012 - 2 new entries in Top 10

10./00. [3DS] Toriko: Gourmet Monsters! <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2012.12.13} (¥5.800) - 34.430 / NEW

2011 - 4 new entries in Top 10

10./12. [WII] PokePark 2: Beyond the World <ADV> (Pokemon Co.) {2011.11.12} (¥5.800) - 43.829 / 164.018 (+44%)

2010 - 3 new entries in Top 10

10. / 08. [NDS] Mario Vs. Donkey Kong: Miniland Mayhem (Nintendo) {02/12/10} - 54.628 / 163.929 (+5%)

Click to shrink...

Top 10 cut-offs for Weeks 51 across the years (Media Create for 2010 and 2011, then Famitsu)

2020 - 0 new entries in Top 10

10./18. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics <TBL> (Nintendo) {2020.06.05} (¥3.980) - 24.502 / 479.976 (+84%)

2019 - 0 new entry in Top 10

10./11. [NSW] Super Mario Party # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2018.10.05} (¥5.980) - 32.041 / 1.229.061 <80-100%> (+65%)

2018 - 2 new entries in Top 10

10./03. [PS4] God Eater 3 # <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2018.12.13} (¥8.200) - 25.840 / 159.499 <60-80%> (-81%)

2017 - 2 new entries in Top 10

10./17. [NSW] Pokken Tournament DX <FTG> (Pokemon Co.) {2017.09.22} (¥5.980) - 23.787 / 165.466 <80-100%> (+146%)

2016 - 1 new entry in Top 10

10./10. [WIU] Minecraft: Wii U Edition <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios) {2016.06.23} (¥3.600) - 33.263 / 241.441 <80-100%> (+121%)

2015 - 2 new entries in Top 10

10./17. [3DS] Rhythm Heaven: The Best+ <ACT> (Nintendo) {2015.06.11} (¥5.076) - 34.198 / 560.698 <80-100%> (+183%)

2014 - 3 new entries in Top 10

10./09. [WIU] Mario Kart 8 # <RCE> (Nintendo) {2014.05.29} (¥6.156) - 32.819 / 798.489 <80-100%> (+36%)

2013 - 3 new entries in Top 10

10./12. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2012.11.08} (¥4.800) - 44.691 / 3.979.859 <80-100%> (+66%)

2012 - 3 new entries in Top 10

10./08. [3DS] Pokèmon Mystery Dungeon: Gates to Infinity <RPG> (Pokèmon Co.) {2012.11.23} (¥4.800) - 65.801 / 310.943 (+56%)

2011 - 3 new entries in Top 10

10./00. [WII] Inazuma Eleven Strikers 2012 Xtreme (Level 5) {2011-12-22} - 85,117 / NEW

2010 - 2 new entries in Top 10

10. / 13. [NDS] Magician's Quest: The Merchants Store of Sorcery (Konami) {2010.11.11} - 74.255 / 249.450 (+95%)

 

[foxuzamaki]

next Mario Party game is gonna be about trains

Click to shrink...

Mario party 8 remake lets goooo

 

[Deleted member 60185]

03./04. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure # <HOB> (Nintendo) {2019.10.18} (¥7.980) - 58.654 / 2.028.444 (+18%)

The second million came way faster than the first one.


07./09. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate # <FTG> (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} (¥7.200) - 33.475 / 3.959.987 (+46%)

4M imminent.

 

[z0m3le]

His numbers are too low but those are way too high, Switch is not selling 40 million lifetime.

After 2021 i expect Switch to have a consistent 30% drop every years before the successor comes out, it will surpass 30 million but won't reach DS 33 million.

Click to shrink...

Those numbers are based on an iterative generation approach to hardware. What was reported last week was that TSMC is increasing their prices on their process nodes and removing volume discounts on all massive orders, so the Tegra X1 in the Switch would go from ~$30 per unit to over $40. A couple days before that, a user with insider information came into the switch speculation thread and claimed that Tegra X1 was being discontinued early next year, which the TSMC report a couple days later, made it seem a lot more likely.

If Nintendo moves to a Samsung fab for an Nvidia SoC, it will be built with an Ampere GPU and A78 cpu cores, basically next year Switch would see a ~3x performance jump and DLSS on top of that, it would essentially be Switch 2, though if Iwata's comments hold out, Switch is the start of an ongoing platform like Android or iOS, if that is the case, "gen 1" switch is selling ~20M and "gen 2" is selling ~20M in my post.

 

[Tbone5189]

Nice note to end the year on before the long wait for W52-W53.

Switch still has a shot at 6 million thanks to the extra week.

Konami needs to rebuild the sports audiences on Switch. Baseball and Soccer could both do well.

Two Japanese-themed games doing well is foreshadowing for Rise.

Click to shrink...

There is no extra week, hopefully NSW gets that 322k in w52

Wow, this week has triple milestone for Switch: 17m for Switch, 14m for OG model, and 3m for Lite model.

Q1 for 18m, March at the very latest.

Click to shrink...

Maybe early feb for 18mil

I don't think it will sell close to 6mi in 2021, probably low 5mi.

5-5.5mi in 2021
~3.5mi in 2022
~1.5mi in 2023
>1mi in 2024

so between 26 to 27 ltd when it's all said and done.
DS is over 30mi?

Click to shrink...

Bro did you add up your numbers??? You did 28mil

 

[MysticGon]

Nintendo and Konami want to bring back the NES/GB glory days where games can compete for all time records and third party games had no ceilings. Capcom will join that group soon. It seems more and more likely Rise will be the best selling game domestically.

Nintendo definitely wants Switch in the 30 millions domestically.

There is no extra week, hopefully NSW gets that 322k in w52



Maybe early feb for 18mil




Bro did you add up your numbers??? You did 28mil

Click to shrink...

I see. Whoops. Thanks for that.

 

[hiska-kun]

Probably because it will contain a lead into christmas and some days after it

Click to shrink...

Years with days alienated like this, week 52 is stronger.

Famitsu Sales: Week 51, 2015 (Dec 14 - Dec 20)

01./00. [3DS] Monster Strike <RPG> (Mixi) {2015.12.17} (¥4.860) - 425.268 / NEW <40-60%>
02./01. [3DS] Monster Hunter X # <ACT> (Capcom) {2015.11.28} (¥6.264) - 159.806 / 2.267.916 <80-100%> (-16%)
03./00. [PS4] Fallout 4 # <RPG> (Bethesda Softworks) {2015.12.17} (¥8.618) - 121.099 / NEW <60-80%>
04./02. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch Busters: Red Cat Team / White Dog Squad <ACT> (Level 5) {2015.07.11} (¥4.968) - 99.190 / 1.860.532 <80-100%> (+50%)
05./04. [WIU] Super Mario Maker # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2015.09.10} (¥6.156) - 80.807 / 576.913 <80-100%> (+95%)
06./03. [WIU] Splatoon # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2015.05.28} (¥6.156) - 77.028 / 966.801 <80-100%> (+76%)
07./11. [3DS] Disney Magic World 2 # <ETC> (Bandai Namco Games) {2015.11.05} (¥6.145) - 43.331 / 203.262 <60-80%> (+86%)
08./13. [3DS] Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2015.07.30} (¥4.320) - 40.896 / 1.222.487 <80-100%> (+94%)
09./07. [3DS] Mario & Luigi: Paper Jam <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.12.03} (¥5.076) - 38.962 / 119.091 <40-60%> (+30%)
10./17. [3DS] Rhythm Heaven: The Best+ <ACT> (Nintendo) {2015.06.11} (¥5.076) - 34.198 / 560.698 <80-100%> (+183%)
11./00. [PSV] Miracle Girls Festival <ACT> (Sega) {2015.12.17} (¥7.549) - 33.580 / NEW <60-80%>
12./15. [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2015.03.19} (¥2.592) - 27.159 / 431.229 <80-100%> (+96%)
13./00. [PSV] Exist Archive: The Other Side of the Sky <RPG> (Spike Chunsoft) {2015.12.17} (¥7.344) - 21.534 / NEW <40-60%>
14./16. [3DS] Sumikko Gurashi: Omise Hajimerundesu <ETC> (Nippon Columbia) {2015.11.19} (¥5.184) - 21.491 / 60.673 <60-80%> (+68%)
15./00. [PS4] Exist Archive: The Other Side of the Sky <RPG> (Spike Chunsoft) {2015.12.17} (¥7.776) - 19.728 / NEW <40-60%>
16./00. [PS3] JoJo's Bizarre Adventure: Eyes of Heaven <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2015.12.17} (¥7.549) - 19.164 / NEW <40-60%>
17./00. [PS4] JoJo's Bizarre Adventure: Eyes of Heaven <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2015.12.17} (¥8.856) - 18.516 / NEW <40-60%>
18./00. [PSV] Angelique Retour # <ADV> (Koei Tecmo) {2015.12.17} (¥7.344) - 10.180 / NEW <80-100%>
19./00. [PSV] Dengeki Bunko: Fighting Climax Ignition <FTG> (Sega) {2015.12.17} (¥7.549) - 9.740 / NEW <40-60%>
20./00. [3DS] Super Run For Money Tousouchuu Atsumare! Saikyou no Tousou Monotachi # <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2015.07.09} (¥5.119) - 9.094 / 85.921 <80-100%>
21./09. [PS4] Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Siege <ACT> (Ubisoft) {2015.12.10} (¥9.072) - 8.805 / 35.832 <60-80%> (-67%)
22./26. [3DS] Mario Kart 7 <RCE> (Nintendo) {2011.12.01} (¥4.800) - 8.751 / 2.480.467 <80-100%> (+77%)
23./23. [3DS] Pokemon Super Mystery Dungeon <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2015.09.17} (¥5.076) - 8.539 / 280.891 <80-100%> (+61%)
24./22. [3DS] The Legend of Zelda: TriForce Heroes <ADV> (Nintendo) {2015.10.22} (¥5.076) - 8.484 / 129.934 <80-100%> (+53%)
25./00. [3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2012.07.28} (¥4.800) - 8.280 / 2.405.663 <80-100%>
26./30. [3DS] Aikatsu! My No.1 Stage! # <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2015.11.26} (¥5.627) - 7.475 / 41.005 <40-60%> (+56%)
27./28. [3DS] PriPara Mezase! Idol Grand Prix No.1! <ACT> (Takara Tomy) {2015.10.22} (¥5.832) - 7.448 / 62.361 <60-80%> (+52%)
28./05. [PSV] Valkyrie Drive: Bhikkhuni # <ACT> (Marvelous) {2015.12.10} (¥7.538) - 7.173 / 47.890 <80-100%> (-82%)
29./27. [WIU] Taiko no Tatsujin: Atsumete Tomodachi Daisakusen! # <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2015.11.26} (¥5.724) - 7.158 / 28.139 <40-60%> (+46%)
30./00. [PS4] Dengeki Bunko: Fighting Climax Ignition <FTG> (Sega) {2015.12.17} (¥7.549) - 7.112 / NEW <40-60%>

Top 30

3DS - 15
PSV - 6
PS4 - 5
WIU - 3
PS3 - 1

HARDWARE

+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+
|System | This Week  | Last Week  | Last Year  |     YTD    |  Last YTD  |     LTD     |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+
| 3DS # |    147.688 |    106.108 |    218.412 |  2.029.453 |  2.934.694 |  19.876.509 |
|  WIU  |     80.301 |     47.259 |     36.397 |    719.182 |    555.929 |   2.842.465 |
|  PS4  |     49.634 |     40.289 |     21.657 |  1.144.833 |    895.425 |   2.070.403 |
| PSV # |     46.182 |     31.031 |     29.657 |    893.273 |  1.107.413 |   4.316.348 |
|  PS3  |      2.381 |      1.903 |      7.847 |    184.748 |    439.892 |  10.203.282 |
|  XB1  |        446 |        234 |      1.761 |     17.614 |     45.143 |      63.572 |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+
|  ALL  |    326.632 |    226.824 |    315.818 |  4.989.103 |  6.076.955 |  39.372.579 |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+

Famitsu Sales: Week 52, 2015 (Dec 21 - Dec 27)

01./01. [3DS] Monster Strike <RPG> (Mixi) {2015.12.17} (¥4.860) - 211.441 / 636.709 <60-80%> (-50%)
02./02. [3DS] Monster Hunter X # <ACT> (Capcom) {2015.11.28} (¥6.264) - 174.061 / 2.441.977 <80-100%> (+9%)
03./04. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch Busters: Red Cat Team / White Dog Squad <ACT> (Level 5) {2015.07.11} (¥4.968) - 104.670 / 1.965.202 <80-100%> (+6%)
04./06. [WIU] Splatoon # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2015.05.28} (¥6.156) - 98.096 / 1.064.897 <80-100%> (+27%)
05./05. [WIU] Super Mario Maker # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2015.09.10} (¥6.156) - 97.281 / 674.194 <80-100%> (+20%)
06./00. [PSV] Mobile Suit Gundam Extreme Vs-Force <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2015.12.23} (¥7.344) - 69.985 / NEW <40-60%>
07./08. [3DS] Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2015.07.30} (¥4.320) - 60.393 / 1.282.880 <80-100%> (+48%)
08./09. [3DS] Mario & Luigi: Paper Jam <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.12.03} (¥5.076) - 55.583 / 174.674 <60-80%> (+43%)
09./12. [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2015.03.19} (¥2.592) - 47.249 / 478.478 <80-100%> (+74%)
10./10. [3DS] Rhythm Heaven: The Best+ <ACT> (Nintendo) {2015.06.11} (¥5.076) - 46.645 / 607.343 <80-100%> (+36%)
11./07. [3DS] Disney Magic World 2 # <ETC> (Bandai Namco Games) {2015.11.05} (¥6.145) - 44.355 / 247.617 <80-100%> (+2%)
12./03. [PS4] Fallout 4 # <RPG> (Bethesda Softworks) {2015.12.17} (¥8.618) - 28.268 / 149.367 <80-100%> (-77%)
13./00. [WIU] Shin Megami Tensei x Fire Emblem # <RPG> (Nintendo) {2015.12.26} (¥7.236) - 23.806 / NEW <40-60%>
14./00. [3DS] Medarot 9: Kabuto Ver. / Kuwagata Ver. <RPG> (Rocket Company) {2015.12.24} (¥6.264) - 21.735 / NEW <40-60%>
15./14. [3DS] Sumikko Gurashi: Omise Hajimerundesu <ETC> (Nippon Columbia) {2015.11.19} (¥5.184) - 19.944 / 80.617 <80-100%> (-7%)
16./22. [3DS] Mario Kart 7 <RCE> (Nintendo) {2011.12.01} (¥4.800) - 12.226 / 2.492.693 <80-100%> (+40%)
17./20. [3DS] Super Run For Money Tousouchuu Atsumare! Saikyou no Tousou Monotachi # <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2015.07.09} (¥5.119) - 11.655 / 97.576 <80-100%> (+28%)
18./24. [3DS] The Legend of Zelda: TriForce Heroes <ADV> (Nintendo) {2015.10.22} (¥5.076) - 11.591 / 141.525 <80-100%> (+37%)
19./00. [PS3] TV Anime Idolm@ster: Cinderella Girls G4U! Pack Vol.7 <ETC> (Bandai Namco Games) {2015.12.23} (¥10.778) - 10.659 / NEW <80-100%>
20./00. [WIU] Animal Crossing: amiibo Festival <TBL> (Nintendo) {2015.11.21} (¥6.480) - 10.540 / 43.490 <40-60%>
21./00. [PS4] Star Wars: Battlefront # <ACT> (Electronic Arts) {2015.11.19} (¥8.424) - 10.385 / 162.325 <80-100%>
22./00. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2012.11.08} (¥4.800) - 10.331 / 4.445.087 <80-100%>
23./00. [3DS] Pokemon Rumble World <ACT> (Pokemon Co.) {2015.11.19} (¥3.996) - 10.025 / 40.485 <40-60%>
24./00. [WIU] Mario Kart 8 # <RCE> (Nintendo) {2014.05.29} (¥6.156) - 9.654 / 1.171.025 <80-100%>
25./25. [3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2012.07.28} (¥4.800) - 9.599 / 2.415.262 <80-100%> (+16%)
26./00. [3DS] Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS <FTG> (Nintendo) {2014.09.13} (¥5.616) - 9.460 / 2.413.477 <80-100%>
27./00. [3DS] Pro Baseball Famista Returns <SPT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2015.10.08} (¥6.145) - 9.408 / 75.340 <80-100%>
28./23. [3DS] Pokemon Super Mystery Dungeon <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2015.09.17} (¥5.076) - 9.299 / 290.190 <80-100%> (+9%)
29./00. [WIU] Yo-Kai Watch Dance: Just Dance Special Version # <ACT> (Level 5) {2015.12.05} (¥4.622) - 9.005 / 26.677 <40-60%>
30./29. [WIU] Taiko no Tatsujin: Atsumete Tomodachi Daisakusen! # <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2015.11.26} (¥5.724) - 8.598 / 36.737 <40-60%> (+20%)

Top 30

3DS - 18
WIU - 7
PS4 - 2
PSV - 2
PS3 - 1

HARDWARE

+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+
|System | This Week  | Last Week  | Last Year  |     YTD    |  Last YTD  |     LTD     |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+
| 3DS # |    160.447 |    147.688 |    218.351 |  2.189.900 |  3.153.045 |  20.036.956 |
|  WIU  |    101.122 |     80.301 |     48.927 |    820.304 |    604.856 |   2.943.587 |
| PSV # |     66.069 |     46.182 |     40.523 |    959.342 |  1.147.936 |   4.382.417 |
|  PS4  |     60.330 |     49.634 |     30.145 |  1.205.163 |    925.570 |   2.130.733 |
|  PS3  |      3.459 |      2.381 |     10.142 |    188.207 |    450.034 |  10.206.741 |
|  XB1  |        479 |        446 |        815 |     18.093 |     45.958 |      64.051 |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+
|  ALL  |    391.906 |    326.632 |    348.997 |  5.381.009 |  6.425.952 |  39.764.485 |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+

Amazing Momotaro sales, Konami is the only third party company that has taken advantage of Nintendo low key Holiday release period.

A big missing chance for the rest of companies because anything remotely interesting and ambitious would have had the spotlight. Then you have to read complain about Nintendo being too much of a fierce competitor and when they give them free space they don't take advantage, it is their loss. Konami enjoying 1,5 million sales, more than Final Fantasy Remake VII.

Click to shrink...

I'd add Marvelous and Sakuna too.

 

[Guaraná]

There is no extra week, hopefully NSW gets that 322k in w52



Maybe early feb for 18mil




Bro did you add up your numbers??? You did 28mil

Click to shrink...

it was meant to be 27 to 28.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

Peach barrel? If you are asking about momotetsu, it's a video game version of the board game sugoroku themed with trains, starring the character Momotaro.

Click to shrink...

Thank you.

 

[Skittzo]

Do you think we'll get PR or at least a Famitsu tweet if Switch does surpass 6M for the year next week? Or will we have to wait for the following week?

 

[srtrestre]

🧹 🧹 🧹

Click to shrink...

 

[hiska-kun]

Can't wait to see how 2020 looks for Konami. Probably like 2014.

 

[Tbone5189]

PokeSmash - 6924k vs ACNH - 6270k


Gap Currently - 654k


Updated Week

W1: 2603k - 1880k
W2: 827k - 728k
W3: 700k - 423k
W4: 456k - 293k
W5: 498k - 286k
W6: 351k - 284k
W7: 289k - 260k
W8: 234k - 195k
W9: 105k - 130k
W10: 84k - 102k
W11: 66k - 102k
W12: 50k - 98k
W13: 47k - 77k
W14: 48k - 74k
W15: 38k - 70k
W16: 45k - 53k
W17: 40k - 56k
W18: 33k - 72k
W19: 29k - 94k
W20: 26k - 57k
W21: 25k - 108k
W22: 33k - 106k
W23: 18k - 43k
W24: 17k - 34k
W25: 16k - 32k
W26: 17k - 31k
W27: 12k- 32k
W28: 14k - 30k
W29: 14k - 36k
W30: 16k - 37k
W31: 16k - 23k
W32: 18k - 24k
W33: 18k - 32k
W34: 16k - 32k
W35: 18k - 37k
W36: 20k - 35k
W37: 26k - 57k
W38: 17k - 71k
W39: 19k - 95k
W40: 24k

 

[dabbling]

Switch needs 320k this week in order to hit 6m for the year at retail. It's not easy but also not impossible.

Click to shrink...

Would love to see this, but think it will fall short. Amazing year regardless, with strong prospects for next year too.

 

[TheBiInBilingual]

Software Numbers.. crazy.

Also: Isnt 2020 53 weeks?

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Yes, but week 53 is divided in 2020 and 2021. Just for the sake of keeping it in one year, week 52 is the last full week of 2020 for the Switch to reach 6 million YTD. We won't know on which day of week 53 the Switch will have crossed the 6 million mark.

 

[Lelouch0612]

Yes, but week 53 is divided in 2020 and 2021. Just for the sake of keeping it in one year, week 52 is the last full week of 2020 for the Switch to reach 6 million YTD. We won't know on which day of week 53 the Switch will have crossed the 6 million mark.

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Under Media Create it would have been a Week 53 since the majority of days tracked are in 2020 (4 this year).

With Famitsu, it is going to be Week 1.

 

[Saicho]

From last week's thread -

Sony probably thinks they are on an island in Japan. Microsoft will never be competitive there and they have default exclusivity on the high end games.

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They are though... ;)

***

No, just no.

Spoiler

no

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For once... I actually agree with you!

I don't think it will sell close to 6mi in 2021, probably low 5mi.

5-5.5mi in 2021
~3.5mi in 2022
~1.5mi in 2023
>1mi in 2024

so between 26 to 27 ltd when it's all said and done.
DS is over 30mi?

Click to shrink...

But not this projection...

By the end of next year it should be around 23 Million units, is Switch just going to stop selling in 2022 and 2023?

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I think it will beat 3DS easily but fall short of beating DS and finish in 29-31 mil range.

 

[Fularu]

I had to stop posting for a few years because I had a job that made it too sensitive to post. That's ended and now that I'm a mod, I'm trying to find threads to participate it more often.

Remember to discuss sales in good faith, people ;)

Click to shrink...

Except Resident Evil and Capcom, those are fair game! :p

 

[Eren Jäger]

Choo, choo the Momotaro train soon reaches 1 million physical copies sold!
I hope that makes Konami overthinks their engagement in the games market.

I had to stop posting for a few years because I had a job that made it too sensitive to post. That's ended and now that I'm a mod, I'm trying to find threads to participate it more often.

Remember to discuss sales in good faith, people ;)

Click to shrink...

Pardon the question, but who are you? People seem to know you but I've never seen you and you are even a mod.
Are you one of the old guard that was part of these threads way back?

 

[Tbone5189]

Q4 — SPL2 — MK8D - (Combo) - ACNH

W01: 18.3k — 12.8k — 31.1k —— 36.5k
W02: 18.4k — 12.4k — 30.8k —— 37.5k
W03: 14.2k — 11.1k — 25.3k —— 34.5k
W04: 21.3k — 14.9k — 36.2k —— 23.1k
W05: 21.7k — 16.5k — 38.2k —— 24.0k
W06: 19.8k — 15.1k — 34.9k —— 31.7k
W07: 20.1k — 15.5k — 35.6k —— 32.6k
W08: 27.3k — 11.8k — 39.1k —— 37.2k
W09: 31.6k — 23.6k — 55.2k —— 35.4k
W10: 41.5k — 33.0k — 74.5k —— 57.1k
W11: 67.5k — 50.8k — 118.3 —— 71.5k
W12: 132.9k- 123.1k - 256.0k — 95.1k
W13: 80.1k — 89.0k — 169.1k


Currently 434.6k - 340.6k - 774.2k - 516.2k


FYI: W12 and W13 due to the days are because of the different times of the year. ACNH will be stronger in W13



[Tot: 496k — 425k — 921k]

 

[Lite_Agent]

Can't wait to see how 2020 looks for Konami. Probably like 2014.

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They'll have Momotaro legs + PES (hopefully). What else?

 

[hiska-kun]

They'll have Momotaro legs + PES (hopefully). What else?

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Momotaro will finish around 1.2M, Powerful Baseball 2020 almost 500k, and then the rest.

With Media Create that has 53 weeks, it will be much higher that these thanks to the extra week.

 

[Fularu]

Can't wait to see how 2020 looks for Konami. Probably like 2014.

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It will look better than 2013 since they released :

2 baseball games (PS4 and Switch) that did over 500k combined without digital
Momotaro that will be at 1.3 retail probably next week
PES

With digital they're probably crossing 2.5 millions for the year

 

[TheBiInBilingual]

Under Media Create it would have been a Week 53 since the majority of days tracked are in 2020 (4 this year).

With Famitsu, it is going to be Week 1.

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Ahh, fair enough.

 

[cvxfreak]

Pardon the question, but who are you? People seem to know you but I've never seen you and you are even a mod.
Are you one of the old guard that was part of these threads way back?

Click to shrink...

I guess you can say that. I participated in sales threads going way back to 2001, from GameFAQs message boards to the old place until about 8 years ago. Now the best I can do these days is just chime in about Japanese retail (i.e. post store photos, observe trends, etc.). I also have access to comprehensive sales data but I can't publicize those myself as they're paid/protected information, but I can talk about general market trends and translate information from Japanese.

 

[z0m3le]

I think it will beat 3DS easily but fall short of beating DS and finish in 29-31 mil range.

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I agree. If next year's model is an iterative successor though, I think it could easily match the current model's EOL sales, which is where my numbers come from, the idea of a soft relaunch of the platform in the form of a successor of sorts. So either 30M+ or 40M+ depending on what Nintendo does next year, as an iterative model will extend the sales curve for at least 3 years, not just 1.

 

[P Diddy]

I guess you can say that. I participated in sales threads going way back to 2001, from GameFAQs message boards to the old place until about 8 years ago. Now the best I can do these days is just chime in about Japanese retail (i.e. post store photos, observe trends, etc.). I also have access to comprehensive sales data but I can't publicize those myself as they're paid/protected information, but I can talk about general market trends and translate information from Japanese.

Click to shrink...

Welcome back! I'm assuming the last sentence means you have access to LRG sales data or famitsu numbers, i presume? It's always great seeing the old faces return.

 

[MysticGon]

From last week's thread -



They are though... ;)

***


For once... I actually agree with you!



But not this projection...



I think it will beat 3DS easily but fall short of beating DS and finish in 29-31 mil range.

Click to shrink...

On a side note. Another reason Nintendo can let the Switch live longer is the fanbase doesn't really get impatient for new tech the way PS and Xbox players do. Third parties have conditioned them not to expect the latest Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed or Red Dead Redemption and only token versions of 2K and FIFA.

They can keep doing their thing and let the ever-craven tech world pass them by with a revolt on their hands. Just as long as the games keep coming.

 

[Deleted member 87246]

either last year's software versus this year was a difference-maker or the switch reached its peak and will start declining next year. monster hunter rise and a hardware revision may keep things going smoothly until the end of 2022.

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Lacking a huge title like Pokemon or a new Mario definitely hurt them a little this Winter. Sales would have been crazy if Odyssey 2 or a third version of Sword/Shield had been ready for this November. As is the sales are still remarkable though despite the "lack" of new titles in 2020.

Does anyone have a rough idea of the Switch exclusive launch line up for 2021 and when they might hit. Bayonetta 3 and Metroid next year or are they more expected for 2022? Thanks.

 

[Tbone5189]

Can't wait for next year #Team2021

I'll post hopefully some interesting comparisons for next year. Even if many will think 1 is toooo much lol

 

[P Diddy]

Can't wait for next year #Team2021

I'll post hopefully some interesting comparisons for next year. Even if many will think 1 is toooo much lol

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I am on #Team2021 simply due to the lackluster 1st half of 2020 excluding ACNH launch week. For some stats, H1 2020 had 10 of the 12 weakest weeks of 2020, so I believe 2021 can gain some easy ground early on.

 

[cvxfreak]

Welcome back! I'm assuming the last sentence means you have access to LRG sales data or famitsu numbers, i presume? It's always great seeing the old faces return.

Click to shrink...

Thanks. I have access to Famitsu and MC data, yes. (I can't talk about LRG data at all for obvious reasons)

 

[Principate]

I had to stop posting for a few years because I had a job that made it too sensitive to post. That's ended and now that I'm a mod, I'm trying to find threads to participate it more often.

Remember to discuss sales in good faith, people ;)

Click to shrink...

Nice to see you back, always enjoyed your analysis.

 

[Ryng™]

I think the numbers are a tad optimistic, but nothing impossible. My guess is that the next Switch model will be aimed at 4K and basically be a 4K machine like the PS pro was to the PS4 and lots of people will upgrade. Those sales, like with the DS, contains a lot of double dippers. Nintendo will also push lots of big titles with 4K support like Zelda. I don't see any reason why the new device would be anything but a big hit. Eventually the new Switch it will also get some exclusives that will try to expand the market even further and keep the sales active for as long as possible.

Click to shrink...

Clearly nothing is impossible but there's a difference between speculate and predict.

I find that a bold prediction, then again anyone can predict whatever they want.

 

[Eren Jäger]

I guess you can say that. I participated in sales threads going way back to 2001, from GameFAQs message boards to the old place until about 8 years ago. Now the best I can do these days is just chime in about Japanese retail (i.e. post store photos, observe trends, etc.). I also have access to comprehensive sales data but I can't publicize those myself as they're paid/protected information, but I can talk about general market trends and translate information from Japanese.

Click to shrink...

Woah, that's really way back. Good to have you here! Do you know something about this whole "Sony abandoned Japan" topic? I assume you worked in the industrie and know one or two people. Of course, only if you can.

 

[Shoichi]

Nice week for Switch. Took home the top 10 and passed 17m units sold

 

[Ryng™]

anyway i would expect something like

2021 - 5.0-5.5 million
2022 - 3.5-4.0 million
2023 - 2.0-2.5 million
2024 - 1-1.2 million, Switch 2
2025+ >1 million

 

[cvxfreak]

Woah, that's really way back. Good to have you here! Do you know something about this whole "Sony abandoned Japan" topic? I assume you worked in the industrie and know one or two people. Of course, only if you can.

Click to shrink...

I've observed many similar occurrences that Mochizuki discussed in his article awhile back and agree with virtually every one of the points he raised.

That said, this all comes down to perception in the end. I do believe Jim Ryan when he says Japan's still important to SIE, but that doesn't automatically equate to it being as important as North America and Europe are.

 

[daschysta]

6 years for a Nintendo console is longer than normal.

ok, maybe portables have a longer lifetime, but let's consider that plans are 1 year late than what I'm predicting here, and maybe the decrease rate is a little softer... unless something really special happens, there's still no way Switch can sell 30mi in Japan, the lifecycle would have to be near 8 years for that.

And 1.5 million after the successor is released is not that little.

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I mean switch hasn't had a single price drop yet.

 

[Tbone5189]

anyway i would expect something like

2021 - 5.0-5.5 million
2022 - 3.5-4.0 million
2023 - 2.0-2.5 million
2024 - 1-1.2 million, Switch 2
2025+ >1 million

Click to shrink...

#Team2020?

Spoiler

 

[Guaraná]

I think the numbers are a tad optimistic, but nothing impossible. My guess is that the next Switch model will be aimed at 4K and basically be a 4K machine like the PS pro was to the PS4 and lots of people will upgrade. Those sales, like with the DS, contains a lot of double dippers. Nintendo will also push lots of big titles with 4K support like Zelda. I don't see any reason why the new device would be anything but a big hit. Eventually the new Switch it will also get some exclusives that will try to expand the market even further and keep the sales active for as long as possible.

Click to shrink...

man, you're in for some big disappointment with this Switch Pro prediction.

 

[z0m3le]

man, you're in for some big disappointment with this Switch Pro prediction.

Click to shrink...

You seem to think there is some kind of value in being wrong but conservative, you even counted your own numbers conservatively. I disagree with your thinking, but neither of us know the future, nor can our opinions change it.

 

[Eren Jäger]

I've observed many similar occurrences that Mochizuki discussed in his article awhile back and agree with virtually every one of the points he raised.

That said, this all comes down to perception in the end. I do believe Jim Ryan when he says Japan's still important to SIE, but that doesn't automatically equate to it being as important as North America and Europe are.

Click to shrink...

Thanks for the insight.
Japan on it's own is stil a big market, but the European countries form a bigger blog with similar tastes with regards to games, and are themselves close to the North American market. What Sony probably cares most about are the big AAA games.

Yet, all of that is no excuse for the extremely low shipments of PS5s to Japan.

 

[P Diddy]

You seem to think there is some kind of value in being wrong but conservative, you even counted your own numbers wrong and conservatively. I disagree with your thinking, but neither of us know the future, nor can our opinions change it.

Click to shrink...

From what i've gathered from lurking MC threads, that's just Guarana's schtick. He predicts low to jinx it

 

[Ryng™]

#Team2020?

Spoiler

Click to shrink...

forgive me son :(

I still think 2021 will be bigger worldwide!

 

[cvxfreak]

Thanks for the insight.
Japan on it's own is stil a big market, but the European countries form a bigger blog with similar tastes with regards to games, and are themselves close to the North American market. What Sony probably cares most about are the big AAA games.

Yet, all of that is no excuse for the extremely low shipments of PS5s to Japan.

Click to shrink...

It's one country versus an entire continent, so Japan could never really win that comparison.

That said, any manufacturer that ignores Japan is, imo, short sighted because there is a myriad of evidence that the rest of Asia is more likely to follow Japanese trends than Western ones. Economically, Asia is the most promising region with the highest potential for growth. Nintendo will have a head start because their products appeal to Japan.

 

[Guaraná]

You seem to think there is some kind of value in being wrong but conservative, you even counted your own numbers wrong and conservatively. I disagree with your thinking, but neither of us know the future, nor can our opinions change it.

Click to shrink...

it's Nintendo, when it comes to hardware, it's always safe to think they will only do the basic.