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TheBiInBilingual

THE STORE ENSURED ME THERE WOULDN'T BE FILM
Member
Feb 22, 2018
2,791
What are the expectations for the Switch overtaking the 3ds in Japan? Can't be earlier than 2022 right? Or are their big* releases in Japan next year I don't know about.

*big enough to move HW
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
Weeks 52 and 1 for Switch last year were 234.268 and 284.827.

We might look at 2 300k weeks in a row this time with much smaller share for Switch Lite.
 

Bruno MB

PAL Charts Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
956
Amazing Momotaro sales, Konami is the only third party company that has taken advantage of Nintendo low key Holiday release period.

A big missing chance for the rest of companies because anything remotely interesting and ambitious would have had the spotlight. Then you have to read complain about Nintendo being too much of a fierce competitor and when they give them free space they don't take advantage, it is their loss. Konami enjoying 1,5 million sales, more than Final Fantasy Remake VII.
 

Deleted member 10737

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
49,774
switch passed GBA's lifetime sales (16.960M), and will pass SNES's lifetime sales next week (17.170M)

next up, PS1 (18.855M)
 

cvxfreak

DINO CRISIS SUX
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
945
Tokyo
Like I said in last week's thread, shop foot traffic just seems way down in general this year (in Tokyo) due to COVID. It's also worth noting that major stores close an hour or two earlier than they did pre-COVID, cutting down shopping time. I imagine many are ordering online alternatively, and people choosing to stay in will buy plenty of games (explaining why software can continue to do well).

On the other hand, tomorrow (Christmas) should be most people's final work day of the year, which means a longer holiday week and the potential for foot traffic to pick up and lift hardware sales above the crucial 300K mark.

I think it's going to be a nail biter for the 6 million mark if we only count one remaining week. If we count two, it will get there.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
Amazing Momotaro sales, Konami is the only third party company that has taken advantage of Nintendo low key Holiday release period.

A big missing chance for the rest of companies because anything remotely interesting and ambitious would have had the spotlight. Then you have to read complain about Nintendo being too much of a fierce competitor and when they give them free space they don't take advantage, it is their loss. Konami enjoying 1,5 million sales, more than Final Fantasy Remake VII.
A special to Koei Tecmo that publishes Hyrule Warriors in Japan and to Marvelous who struck gold with Sakuna too
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,739
Italy
Amazing Momotaro sales, Konami is the only third party company that has taken advantage of Nintendo low key Holiday release period.

A big missing chance for the rest of companies because anything remotely interesting and ambitious would have had the spotlight. Then you have to read complain about Nintendo being too much of a fierce competitor and when they give them free space they don't take advantage, it is their loss. Konami enjoying 1,5 million sales, more than Final Fantasy Remake VII.

The same happened during the first months after 3DS launch.

Still, this year's release schedule were affected by COVID. I'd not be surprised if some games like Bravely Default or Story of Seasons were December releases

Bandai Namco is the least excusable company.
 

Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
Like I said in last week's thread, shop foot traffic just seems way down in general this year (in Tokyo) due to COVID. It's also worth noting that major stores close an hour or two earlier than they did pre-COVID, cutting down shopping time. I imagine many are ordering online alternatively, and people choosing to stay in will buy plenty of games (explaining why software can continue to do well).

On the other hand, tomorrow (Christmas) should be most people's final work day of the year, which means a longer holiday week and the potential for foot traffic to pick up and lift hardware sales above the crucial 300K mark.

I think it's going to be a nail biter for the 6 million mark if we only count one remaining week. If we count two, it will get there.
Good to see you around still! It feels like I haven't seen you post in a Media Create thread in years.
 

cvxfreak

DINO CRISIS SUX
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
945
Tokyo
Good to see you around still! It feels like I haven't seen you post in a Media Create thread in years.

I had to stop posting for a few years because I had a job that made it too sensitive to post. That's ended and now that I'm a mod, I'm trying to find threads to participate it more often.

Remember to discuss sales in good faith, people ;)
 

tolkir

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,252
The same happened during the first months after 3DS launch.

Still, this year's release schedule were affected by COVID. I'd not be surprised if some games like Bravely Default or Story of Seasons were December releases

Bandai Namco is the least excusable company.

Have you already forgotten the secret sauce of Harada for this Christmas, Family Trainer?
 

MysticGon

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 31, 2017
7,285
Nice note to end the year on before the long wait for W52-W53.

Switch still has a shot at 6 million thanks to the extra week.

Konami needs to rebuild the sports audiences on Switch. Baseball and Soccer could both do well.

Two Japanese-themed games doing well is foreshadowing for Rise.
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
Switch momentum over as PS5 rises from the ashes. =P

Having a well timed revision next year will ensure Switch has a nice, steady decline and hit those upper 20s.
 

Ekid

Member
Dec 21, 2017
1,638
So this has to be the first time Sony will have sold less than 1 million hardware units in a year since the release of the PS1 right?
 

KtSlime

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,910
Tokyo
There is a Switch exclusive Monster Hunter releasing in three months. Sales will explode in Japan.
I'm pretty sure it will pass it before the launch of Rise, but if it doesn't, Rise will guarantee it does soon after. Right now it's only 350k behind, and 3DS only sold 600k in the next 7 weeks, if Switch can do 1 million in the next 7 weeks (and it should) it will be ahead and stay ahead.
 

K Samedi

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,989
Switch momentum over as PS5 rises from the ashes. =P

Having a well timed revision next year will ensure Switch has a nice, steady decline and hit those upper 20s.
upper 20s seems pessimistic to me. I expect Switch to beat DS and the main reason is that they will keep supporting Switch with lots of big titles for the next 5 years at least. They have no other platform to think about so it becomes easier to manage development and even platform momentum.
 

Deleted member 31092

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 5, 2017
10,783
Switch vs 3DS
2020-12-24-14-06-36.jpg

Code:
-------------------------------------------------------------------
|    |     Nintendo 3DS     |    Nintendo Switch   |  Difference  | 
|    |     (2011/02/26)     |     (2017/03/03)     |              | 
|----|----------|-----------|----------|-----------|--------------| 
|Week|  Weekly  |    LTD    |  Weekly  |    LTD    |   NSW - 3DS  |
|----|----------|-----------|----------|-----------|--------------|
| 197|    86.346| 17.153.957|   204.622| 16.569.199|      -584.758|
| 198|    92.892| 17.246.849|   229.698| 16.798.897|      -447.952|
| 199|   163.444| 17.410.293|   263.304| 17.062.201|      -348.092|
| 200|   218.412| 17.628.705|          |           |              |
| 201|   218.351| 17.847.056|          |           |              |
| 202|   200.100| 18.047.156|          |           |              |
| 203|    70.100| 18.117.256|          |           |              |
| 204|    50.438| 18.167.694|          |           |              |
| 205|    36.163| 18.203.857|          |           |              |
| 206|    33.011| 18.236.868|          |           |              |
|----|----------|-----------|----------|-----------|--------------|

Switch will end up much closer to the DS than anyone predicted back in 2017 or 2018.
 

rAndom

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,866
What are the expectations for the Switch overtaking the 3ds in Japan? Can't be earlier than 2022 right? Or are their big* releases in Japan next year I don't know about.

*big enough to move HW

Right now, 3DS is up by around 7.5M. by the end of this year, it should be down by 7M. Assuming Nintendo won't suddenly kill the Switch by a next gen hardware, then within 2 years that 7M lead by the 3DS can be erased easily. Probably within a year and a half at worst.

Monster Hunter Rise is expected to move hardware big time. If within that 2 year timespan the BoTW sequel will be released, then that's another HW mover as well.
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
upper 20s seems pessimistic to me. I expect Switch to beat DS and the main reason is that they will keep supporting Switch with lots of big titles for the next 5 years at least. They have no other platform to think about so it becomes easier to manage development and even platform momentum.

I think that would be contingent on Nintendo being able to produce several more new IPs that become multimillion sellers. That's unlikely - but not impossible, to their credit.
 

Mpl90

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,215
Since I see that no one has posted it yet:

Next Famitsu's Top 10 will be published on January 7th and it will include numbers for both Week 52, 2020 and Week 1, 2021. As always, it's unknown when Famitsu is going to post the Top 30 specifically for Week 52, 2020.
 

Deleted member 31092

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 5, 2017
10,783
Now that the year is essentially done, do we have final data on how many retail games were released this year? Is there any resource available online to find historic data on this?
 

jnWake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,108
So close to 6M! It'd be cool if it makes next week.

Wonder how it'd be doing on Media Create charts since their numbers are usually different by a bit.
 
Dec 21, 2020
5,066
Prediction:

NSW will miss the NDS by 10000 units at the end of its life, mark my words

Will salesera implode? tune in next time! ;-)
 

Deleted member 31092

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 5, 2017
10,783

KtSlime

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,910
Tokyo
Now that the year is essentially done, do we have final data on how many retail games were released this year? Is there any resource available online to find historic data on this?
There should be no retail releases next week, so you are free to count.

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