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sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,740
Italy
Talking out of my ass, but I'd say Ace Combat is not even close to AAA game. The amount of assets and animation is way less than modern AAA games.

Ace Combat is definitely not an AAA game but it had big production values for Bamco and also was under development for many years.

Not gonna lie, its pretty cool that Monster Hunter fans showed up for MH:W. They complained a LOT about not getting HD entries and how the handhelds kept getting them. At least they stayed true to their request and bought the hell out of MH:W when it came out.

MH4 shipped 4.1m in Japan. There's surely some audience loss in Japan.

Nintendo internet polls

🤣🤣🤣
 

Avada Kedavra

Banned
Jan 23, 2019
756
Latest known sales (Famitsu physical + digital estimates):

[NSW] Dragon Quest Builders 2 - 267.695
[PS4] Dragon Quest Builders 2 - 265.956

Still many copies on shelves for both however.
 

Akita One

Member
Oct 30, 2017
4,628
Wait Dragon Quest Builders 2 is out? How'd I miss this?

How well has it sold overall? And is there news about localisation? Loved the first game
It was easy to miss since it came out a few days before Christmas, but it has been announced for a 2019 US release. No date yet.

Totally spitballing but it seems to be tracking close to what DQB1 did on the Switch, but not as good as what that sold on PS4.
 

K Samedi

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,990
The Famitsu digital numbera are useless at this point but I do think they will eventually get better at them as the market is moving more and more into digital. So keeping those numbera around is good for discussion of correctness. I hope they will eventually get their act together on that one.
 

Kriegshand

Member
Oct 28, 2017
516
13 weeks in Q4. In 5 weeks, Nintendo sold 470k Switch in Japan alone. Assuming a 50k average per week (which is most likely lower than what it'll be) for the 8 upcoming weeks, it'll sell an additional 400k. Shipments should be around or close to 1 million for Japan alone.
Japan is usually around 30% of Switch's HW shipments. If the performance is the same across the globe, it'd give an estimate of 3.3 millions shipped in Q4 by lowballing it.
Nintendo predicted 2.5M for this Q4.

You are comparing shipments from Nintendo to sell-through data. The switch could very well be overshipped in Q3. So sell-through could exceed shipmenta in Q4.

---------------------------------------

Pokemon is up thanks to the restocked bundles. If the Pokemon bundles are available the hole year then Let's Go will not collapse in summer like some people here suggested.
 

Akita One

Member
Oct 30, 2017
4,628
Talking out of my ass, but I'd say Ace Combat is not even close to AAA game. The amount of assets and animation is way less than modern AAA games.

Bamco do many things, over budgeting their games is not one of them.

First off, triple A is solely defined by how much money is spent on a project. What your opinion on the assets is and how high quality they are is irrelevant.

Second, you don't know what their budgets were and if anything was overbudgeted...and, I don't know what that has to do with the topic. They don't have some psychic in finance that can foretell how well a game will sell.

And finally, Ace Combat has modern photo-realistic graphics featuring highly detailed aircrafts that require licensing dollars on top of that. What games are Bamco developing that would cost more than this, besides fighting games? We know the Warriors games are dirty cheap cookie cutter games and even some of those have struggled to make a profit with the same or more sales than AC7 has right now.
 

HaremKing

Banned
Dec 20, 2018
2,416
One thing that is a bit nebulous and can cause confusion is the Nintendo Smash hardware bundles that came with game cards.

If Famitsu polls "Did you buy your game digitally", odds are since it's a physical hardware bundle that a person would say no. However for Nintendo these bundles I believe are treated as a digital purchase of the game as they go through the eShop.
 

KtSlime

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,910
Tokyo
One thing that is a bit nebulous and can cause confusion is the Nintendo Smash hardware bundles that came with game cards.

If Famitsu polls "Did you buy your game digitally", odds are since it's a physical hardware bundle that a person would say no. However for Nintendo these bundles I believe are treated as a digital purchase of the game as they go through the eShop.

Nintendo isn't going to count their digital sales twice on in an official financial report. That kind of lie just asking for trouble.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
36,398
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Aters

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
7,948
First off, triple A is solely defined by how much money is spent on a project. What your opinion on the assets is and how high quality they are is irrelevant.

Second, you don't know what their budgets were and if anything was overbudgeted...and, I don't know what that has to do with the topic. They don't have some psychic in finance that can foretell how well a game will sell.

And finally, Ace Combat has modern photo-realistic graphics featuring highly detailed aircrafts that require licensing dollars on top of that. What games are Bamco developing that would cost more than this, besides fighting games? We know the Warriors games are dirty cheap cookie cutter games and even some of those have struggled to make a profit with the same or more sales than AC7 has right now.
I mean, none of us know the actual budget, that's why we are guessing. Using assets and animation to estimate budget is as good a method as anything else.

Every company has analyzer to estimate the sales potential of the product and adjust budget accordingly. We've yet to see any sign of AC7 failing projection.

Photo-realistic graphic is no longer exclusive to AAA games when some indies also have good graphic, and we know nothing about license fee either. The Warrior games (assuming you mean One Piece Warrior) are developed by KT, and I can't find the source that shows they struggle to make a profit.

Bamco as a company has a tendency to make game quick and cheap. That's their business model. They publish more games than all other publishers in the world. Such business model simply does not support games with huge budget.

I can't say exactly how AC7 is performing, but to say it bombs because "it's an AAA game without AAA sales" is simply ridiculous.
 

DecoReturns

Member
Oct 27, 2017
22,003
Will. I think it's fair to say that Smash Ultimate has exceeded expectations.

Seems like every Major Nintendo title is doing that. Some More in the West then Japan tho.

Really interested to see how Fire Emblem and Animal Crossing do. Think they have a okay shot of topping their previous mainelinw release. Not sure about Luigi's Mansion 3 tho.
 

Akita One

Member
Oct 30, 2017
4,628
I mean, none of us know the actual budget, that's why we are guessing. Using assets and animation to estimate budget is as good a method as anything else.

Every company has analyzer to estimate the sales potential of the product and adjust budget accordingly. We've yet to see any sign of AC7 failing projection.

Photo-realistic graphic is no longer exclusive to AAA games when some indies also have good graphic, and we know nothing about license fee either. The Warrior games (assuming you mean One Piece Warrior) are developed by KT, and I can't find the source that shows they struggle to make a profit.

Bamco as a company has a tendency to make game quick and cheap. That's their business model. They publish more games than all other publishers in the world. Such business model simply does not support games with huge budget.

I can't say exactly how AC7 is performing, but to say it bombs because "it's an AAA game without AAA sales" is simply ridiculous.
The point was, that sales are way below what any game of its technical calibur, which is that it will be unlikely to do 300K in Japan. How many games has Bandai Namco developed that have been commercially successful (by receiving praise in Bamco's investor reports or by analysts) with lower sales so quickly? And the graphics in the game are very good and rivals what other single player games are doing technically, with VR! I think the definition of AAA is wider than you think...is there any question that this is one of Bamco's lead releases this year, and especially this quarter?

Also my bad on KT, I mixed up devs...but my general point was, what games do they develop, besides fighting games, that have a bigger budget than this?
 

Jawmuncher

Crisis Dino
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
38,510
Ibis Island
Official Staff Communication
This is the Media Create Sales thread. Thus the usage of Famitsu Sales data (Especially that with digital estimations) is not needed in this thread unless otherwise stated by the community.
 
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HaremKing

Banned
Dec 20, 2018
2,416
Official Staff Communication
This is the Media Create Sales thread. Thus the usage of Famitsu Sales data (Especially that with digital estimations) is not needed in this thread unless otherwise stated.
Oh snap, so no Dengeki or Famitsu data or Rakuten/GEO/Tsutaya pre-order rankings.

Media Create info only. I guess that other stuff can go in separate threads?
 

Jawmuncher

Crisis Dino
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
38,510
Ibis Island
Oh snap, so no Dengeki or Famitsu data or Rakuten/GEO/Tsutaya pre-order rankings.

Media Create info only. I guess that other stuff can go in separate threads?

These would fall under "unless otherwise stated". Which refers to the current community discussion.
If the entire community is discussing the usage of other Japanese Sales Rankings that's one thing.
If it's a poster repeatedly posting data not part of the discussion, that would fall into the Mod Post.