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Media Create Sales: Week 49, 2018 (Dec 03 - Dec 09)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
You might as well throw that degree into the fire, it seems...
since you're lurking...
Just taking potshots at when the Switch and PS4 Media Create LTD numbers will intersect, but I have no Idea how to incorporate this time of year (the 6-ish weeks of what seems like chaos).
How does one go about dealing with Holiday stacked retail analysis?
in 2018, up until this time of the year PS4 averaged ~30K a week, While the Switch averaged ~48K. I'm guessing PS4 will see a similar change in average sales per week (of whatever rolling range you want to use) as it did during the 2017 to 2018 shift, and It seems that Switch will continue along it's trend until a something shifts in pricing. Finding those intersects seems easy enough, but how does one handle analysis of special events with dramatic but temporary effects?
ThatRandomCliff: 99 week - 7.014.015[UPDATE] Don't be shy :)
Users Predictions: 7 Million Switch in Japan
Write yours predictions like this please :)
Your name: weeks - numbers
THX :)
Arthoneceron: 104 weeks - 7.015.030
ccc: 108 weeks - 7.003.250
klanar: 94 weeks - 7.040.000
Source: gamedatalibrary
NDS: 71 weeks
3DS: 77 weeks
GBA: 91 weeks
PS2: 101 weeks
WII: 104 weeks
PS1: 131 weeks
PSP: 158 weeks
PS4: 239 weeks
PS3: 258 weeks
So not exactly what was asked (NSO impact which launched W39) but I went and bothered to do some digging, with hardware sales, attach rate/week, notable events comparison for Splatoon 2 in late 2017 vs late 2018
Splatoon 2 sales from week 42 to 52 last year
Splatoon 2 sales from week 42 to 49 this year
Splatoon 2 attach rate in W49 2017 : 0.54
Splatoon 2 attach rate in W49 2018 : 0.45
Percentage wise I'd say W46 was disappointing this year, huge hardware bump but slow uptick that week for its sales, Week 51 and 52 will be interesting to follow because that's where we'll see how high the game can still go. Looking at last year it could still reach 60k W51 which is nothing to scoff at.
Overall I'd say the biggest difference is that Splatoon 2 has to deal with much more evergreens titles than before right now compared to earlier and its mindshare as the "go to" Switch title is shrinking to some degree because of all of the others heavy hitters.
July 2017 : Zelda, Mario Kart, Arms
November 2017 : Zelda, Mario Kart, Mario Odyssey
November 2018 : Zelda, Mario Kart, Mario Odyssey, Pokemon, Smash Bros, Kirby, Mario Tennis, Mario Party, Minecraft, Taiko
Or rather when in 2017 you were buying the Switch to play Splatoon 2 or when buying the Switch you had to buy Splatoon 2 (pun not intended), in 2018 there are plenty of other options including games that you, indeed, do not need to pay online for if you want to play multiplayer (Mario Kart, Pokemon, Smash Bros, Kirby, Mario Tennis, Taiko)
Fun trivia : Splatoon is still, for the last 52 weeks, the best selling Switch game. In 2018 it lost that spot just this week.
Sales of Switch titles between W49 2017 and W49 2018
Splatoon 2 : 1.280.307 (+88%)
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe : 987.198 (+110%)
Mario Odyssey : 916.956 (+97%)
Zelda Breath of the Wild : 499.289 (+73%)
Last edited:
OP
OP
I assume he means WW this year. And not LTD for NSW when all is said and done.
OP
OP
Ah, that famous story.
Worst case is Switch will be at 19m, best at 20+. I see Nintendo shipping enough to meet the target even if they end to overstock at next quarter.
[UPDATE] Don't be shy :)
Users Predictions: 7 Million Switch in Japan
Write yours predictions like this please :)
Your name: weeks - numbers
THX :)
Arthoneceron: 104 weeks - 7.015.030
ccc: 108 weeks - 7.003.250
klanar: 94 weeks - 7.040.000
Source: gamedatalibrary
NDS: 71 weeks
3DS: 77 weeks
GBA: 91 weeks
PS2: 101 weeks
WII: 104 weeks
PS1: 131 weeks
PSP: 158 weeks
PS4: 239 weeks
PS3: 258 weeks
MysticGon: 100 weeks - 7.150.000
Mat (I think), mostly looks at data for the US or NA. Not sure how much he can tell you about the Japanese market.
Since we get data on a week to week basis in Japan and we have plenty of previous years to base predictions off of. We can also see the direct effect of new releases, price drops, and holidays so in general, we can have pretty good predictions just by mapping out weeks based off of historical trends.
That's actually something Dengeki pointed out a while ago. Up until now, Splatoon 2 was THE system-seller (the only one on the long run), and the game most people ended up getting with their Switch), but that this holiday season things would start to change with Pokémon, and more importantly Smash.
Yeah I know everyone wants to be a scientist these days...
It's off topic I guess.
OP
OP
I'm not sure there will be a drop for Switch next week, at least not a notable one. Like I said before weekend will define that.
You get comfortable with high ranges of forecast error driven by lack of comparable sample. Meaning, more precisely, you do that math and then take a best stab at what a forecast should look like, knowing it'll almost certainly be wrong.
We likely don't know more than we do know about the factors that impact variability of sales and to what degree they do so. Mainly driven by lack of precise data, but there are other things that aren't quite measurable, at least not yet, like some of the randomness/unidentifiable aspects around human purchase behavior and motivators.
I really like Labo (well the one kit I got, the first, which I played with my eldest daughter, and eventually I will buy the third) but releasing it in April, so far from the holidays and with not much fanfare by the time it released was a huge mistake imo.
Maybe Nintendo thought they could repeat the success story of Switch releasing outside of holiday season with Labo as well.
You shouldn't come out with this type of product in April unless you plan in advance to revive it with a huge ad campaign in time for the holidays, which they didn't. I think someone at Nintendo got a little too confident that they could forego common logic with this product and release it outside of holiday season.
Your Pokemon prediction will be true for the core 2019 RPG that everyone is waiting for. The Let's Go games are marketed/made for casual fans and Go players they want to upgrade to Switch.
Slarvax: 97 weeks - 7.102.345[UPDATE] Don't be shy :)
Users Predictions: 7 Million Switch in Japan
Write yours predictions like this please :)
Your name: weeks - numbers
THX :)
Arthoneceron: 104 weeks - 7.015.030
ccc: 108 weeks - 7.003.250
klanar: 94 weeks - 7.040.000
Source: gamedatalibrary
NDS: 71 weeks
3DS: 77 weeks
GBA: 91 weeks
PS2: 101 weeks
WII: 104 weeks
PS1: 131 weeks
PSP: 158 weeks
PS4: 239 weeks
PS3: 258 weeks
Last edited:
I thought you just had a crystal ball? Or do you read sales in animal internals ? Tea leaves ?
103 weeks.[UPDATE] Don't be shy :)
Users Predictions: 7 Million Switch in Japan
Write yours predictions like this please :)
Your name: weeks - numbers
THX :)
Arthoneceron: 104 weeks - 7.015.030
ccc: 108 weeks - 7.003.250
klanar: 94 weeks - 7.040.000
Source: gamedatalibrary
NDS: 71 weeks
3DS: 77 weeks
GBA: 91 weeks
PS2: 101 weeks
WII: 104 weeks
PS1: 131 weeks
PSP: 158 weeks
PS4: 239 weeks
PS3: 258 weeks
Did I miss something? Sony has been talking about PS4 reaching the end phase of its life cycle, projected shipments for current fiscal year are significantly down from previous FY. These numbers are pretty much in line with what Sony has been saying. 2017 was the peak year for PS4 hardware sales. It will sell less in 2018, and even less in 2019. Why anybody expects otherwise is beyond me. Ouch?
I was fine with the intiial release timeline but the lack of followup this holiday season definitely hurt it. If I recall they tried to bill it as a toy but they neither got coverage under video games nor toys in ad fliers, and coverage among blogs and such shilling for STEM toys is similarly nonexistent. You got things like the fucking Code A Pillar still being regarded as a fantastic STEM toy (it isn't, and it's noisier than VTech toys) while something that can legitimately be interesting gets overlooked.
[UPDATE] Don't be shy :)
Users Predictions: 7 Million Switch in Japan
Write yours predictions like this please :)
Your name: weeks - numbers
THX :)
Arthoneceron: 104 weeks - 7.015.030
ccc: 108 weeks - 7.003.250
klanar: 94 weeks - 7.040.000
Source: gamedatalibrary
NDS: 71 weeks
3DS: 77 weeks
GBA: 91 weeks
PS2: 101 weeks
WII: 104 weeks
PS1: 131 weeks
PSP: 158 weeks
PS4: 239 weeks
PS3: 258 weeks
James: 97 weeks - 7.150.000
OP
OP
I've given hints for PlayStation Classic many times. It went unnoticed in Japan and west isn't different situation.
Playstation Classic had a much better lineup in Japan but it's still not shocking. Even with how popular the PSOne/PS2 were in Japan, the Famicom/Super Famicom still dominate the mindshare of retro stuff in Japan.
1.5m? Question is whether it'll reach 2m, not 1.5m. By the end of the year, it'll be at around 1.3m (at the very least), 1.5m will come pretty quickly. Legs will determine if 2m is possible or not (my money is on no, unless holiday sales are especially strong).
Thanks, I was just trying to make sure I didn't miss Famitsu/Media Create special note that happens the first week of any notable new hardware (Think that is how it was worded with the Famicon/Super Famicon/PSVR release.
That would be amazing and would surely mean a monstrous week 51. I'm thinking SW will be massively up next week, usually the week after a big release is when you see the big bumps. There's going to be a lot of SW sold next week.
Nintendo knew exactly what they were doing with Super Mario Party and people were brushing it off when the game was announced at E3. It has been a constant seller everywhere ever since it released (yes, even in Europe). We will see a lot of surprised faces when Nintendo will release the sales numbers for SMP.
I predicted Mario Party at the begining of the year. It made too much sense and the Switch's form factor and MP outside of the box were begging for good party games.
1-2 Switch sales showed it.
1-2 Switch sales showed it.
I will bring back the Switch Publisher chart I was updating earlier in the year. It won't have the week to week changes from the past few months, but it will be fully up-to-date on everything else.
The re-branding was really smart. The bundle may be smarter. Its fit with the Switch as a franchise is perfect.
Yeah 1-2 Switch's legs were the reason why I was convinced that SMP will be a mega hit. SMP basically took over from 1-2 Switch.
Isn't there a decent chance both Smash and God Eater will be above 200k too?
I'm expecting 5-7 million shipped by the end of december. We already know 1M in the US sold as of the end of Cyber Monday, and Japan is going to put in some bankers numbers for it as well.
Sorry Mat it is time to pack it up. Best tell everyone where you work that it was good while it lasted.
Interesting that PS4 Pro is up YOY and about 33% of PS4s sold. That's a positive in face of the console's decline.