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sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,725
Italy
Animal Crossing will be interesting to watch because, as others have pointed out, it's been 7 years and a half since the last mainline entry; the game has a wide appeal across demographics and will release on a successful platform, which is also handheld.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
So probably around 1.7-1.8m with digital then? Not bad, but still a decline for the series; as I expected.

Will probably end up around 3.5m-3.7m, slightly down on Sun/Moon. The series just doesn't get the super strong long-tail that it used to anymore; likely in no small part due to the aggressive annual/semi-annual schedule that it has fallen into.
You are expecting Sw/Sh to have worse legs than Let's Go ?
 

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
I think is pretty safe to say Animal Crossing will sell a ton of numers in the long run, i'm not even interested to see if lifetime numbers will surpass DS and 3DS games.
Though i'm kinda curious to see the launch of Animal Crossing, the series always sold amazing thanks the legs, but maybe this time we may looking for a big opening? Like, 1 million maybe? (digital included or excluded)
 

Deleted member 31092

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 5, 2017
10,783
I think is pretty safe to say Animal Crossing will sell a ton of numers in the long run, i'm not even interested to see if lifetime numbers will surpass DS and 3DS games.
Though i'm kinda curious to see the launch of Animal Crossing, the series always sold amazing thanks the legs, but maybe this time we may looking for a big opening? Like, 1 million maybe? (digital included or excluded)

Animal Crossing on 3DS had an amazing opening, it was massively supply constrained and that pushed digital sales in the first quarter.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
it's not out of the question, remember let's go was more for casual, and we know those games usually have better legs.
Frankly, I just don't see it. Versus Let's Go, Sword/shield has so many advantages :

- No Smash 3 weeks later, sole focus of the Holidays
- RAIDS which have a lot of potential in Japan through LAN + events organized to keep people coming back (Tournaments or new Giga forms spawning)
- Ties in with the anime
- The Lite which opens a new market
- Not a remake.
 

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
First week sales were over 3m for Pokemon Let's Go and over 5m for Smash Bros. Ultimate. PR for Sword / Shield should be out this week.

Europe and Japan (Japan as we can see right now) should have a bigger opening.
America i think will be very hard to top, for context, Sun/Moon in 2 weeks did 3.7 million (in the whole America), Smash Ultimate did 3 million (only in USA).

I think worldwide should slighly beat Smash Ultimate.
 

Fisico

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,106
Paris
Frankly, I just don't see it. Versus Let's Go, Sword/shield has so many advantages :

- No Smash 3 weeks later, sole focus of the Holidays
- RAIDS which have a lot of potential in Japan through LAN + events organized to keep people coming back (Tournaments or new Giga forms spawning)
- Ties in with the anime
- The Lite which opens a new market
- Not a remake.

It can have better legs with sheer volume but lower ones proportionally which is what Ryng is implying, sales have been more and more frontloaded as well so there's a trend.
 

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
So is the main series even if it doesn't have to be specifically marketed like that & no series reaches these kind of numbers without a large portion of the casual audience

I'm not saying a bit percent of mainline Pokémon fanbase is not casual, but Let's go was even more.

Frankly, I just don't see it. Versus Let's Go, Sword/shield has so many advantages :

- No Smash 3 weeks later, sole focus of the Holidays
- RAIDS which have a lot of potential in Japan through LAN + events organized to keep people coming back (Tournaments or new Giga forms spawning)
- Ties in with the anime
- The Lite which opens a new market
- Not a remake.

I see your points and i agree with them, i also expect better legs. We'll see.
 

Sandfox

Member
Oct 25, 2017
24,743
Europe and Japan (Japan as we can see right now) should have a bigger opening.
America i think will be very hard to top, for context, Sun/Moon in 2 weeks did 3.7 million (in the whole America), Smash Ultimate did 3 million (only in USA).

I think worldwide should slighly beat Smash Ultimate.
That 3 million number was for the whole month(which makes it clear just how much of monster SM was) and Sword and Shield had a bigger shipment than Smash at least, so we'll see.
 

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
That 3 million number was for the whole month(which makes it clear just how much of monster SM was) and Sword and Shield had a bigger shipment than Smash at least, so we'll see.

It was 2 weeks.

EDIT: first month only at retail was over 3.6 million, and digital put it easy over 4 million, maybe closer to 4.5 million. Unless you know, it sold 2 million in the second month, because Smash Ultimate at the end of January was over 5 million units in USA...
 

Pokémon

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,678
Pokémon sales have been more frontloaded in recent years because with only one exception in 2015 we have had a Pokémon game every single year since Black/White 2. I think there won't be a mainline Pokémon game next year which should make Sword/Shield less frontloaded than all the games since 2012.
 
Oct 25, 2017
15,171
Pokémon sales have been more frontloaded in recent years because with only one exception in 2015 we have had a Pokémon game every single year since Black/White 2. I think there won't be a mainline Pokémon game next year which should make Sword/Shield less frontloaded than all the games since 2012.
Probably not from game freak if it isn't a third version, but we could see some more external spinoffs.
 

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
Ryng, tell me if you agree, but I think we'll have something like that :

Vs Let's go :

Europe : ×1.75
Japan : x2.25
US : same as Japan

--> Sw/Sh launch ~6-6.5m using that correlation

Vs Smash :

Europe : ~1.5
Japan : 1.25
US : ~1

---> Sw/Sh launch ~ 6m

Huum yeah, i think actual numbers will be very close to this. USA like i said i think will be less than Smash, not at the same level, but worldwide numbers i expect something in the 6 million range.
 

Deleted member 8593

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
27,176
I would say that next year would be a great time for Pokémon Snap 2 but that would imply that there's ever a time where it isn't a good time for Pokémon Snap 2.
 

Jbone115

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,734
Predictions for tomorrow:

Pokemon 1.35M
Switch 175K
Nailed it.

Edit: when you consider the higher price combined with the shrinking non-mobile Japanese gaming market and vouchers (I estimate ~15-20%), it think this is a pretty good good result. Revenue-wise, I imagine that this is the highest opening in series history.
 
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sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,725
Italy
Selling more then 5M in Japan was always a rare occurrence (since 1983 it happened just 11 times).
And yes the next AC could be a possible new candidate.

I know, but it became more common during DS era and even 3DS had a 5m seller (AC indeed). Well, if we want to be comprehensive, Minecraft should be there too, across all platforms.

It's not a common occurrence, of course.
 

Lite_Agent

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,572
Somewhere. I think.
Selling more then 5M in Japan was always a rare occurrence (since 1983 it happened just 11 times).
And yes the next AC could be a possible new candidate.

If AC doesn't do it, then Ghost Trick 2 is the only other game that could ever hope to sell 5m.

Games that will never exist can sell 12 million units if you wish hard enough.

About AC, LTD will depend on what they do with DLC / expansions. Welcome amiibo was really successful, and really helped extend the sales potential. 5m is definitely possible if they play their cards right.
 

Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,030
I know, but it became more common during DS era and even 3DS had a 5m seller (AC indeed). Well, if we want to be comprehensive, Minecraft should be there too, across all platforms.
DS got almost half of them, it was a beautiful monster exception.
Combining all three versions, there is also YW2 on 3DS.

NES (FC): 1
GB: 2
GBA: 1
DS: 5
3DS: 2

All of them by Nintendo/Pokemon Co with the exception of YW2 which is by Level 5.
 
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sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,725
Italy
If AC doesn't do it, then Ghost Trick 2 is the only other game that could ever hope to sell 5m.

Come on, of course the new entry in the Another Code franchise will reach 5m.

DS got 5 of them, it was a beautiful monster exception.
Combining all three versions, there is also YW2 on 3DS.

NES: 1
GB: 2
GBA: 1
DS: 5
3DS: 2

All of them by Nintendo/Pokemon Co with the exception of YW2 which is by Level 5.

DS was a monster under many dimension. The only lacking side was games between 500k-1m, which were less than usual in relative terms. But that's because the platform had so many million sellers.
 

PillFencer

Banned
Nov 15, 2018
2,431
Smash is 1,1 million away from reaching 5m as of Sep. 30, I wouldn't say "slim chance".
By MHP, do you mean Monster Hunter Portable? That peaked with 3rd and I don't see why you would separate it from the main series, so you probably mean something else
 

Lite_Agent

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,572
Somewhere. I think.
Famitsu:

  • Switch Lite/97565台(累計 55万531台)
  • Switch/82571台(累計 951万5266台)
  • PS4/4393台(累計 717万1340台)
  • PS4 Pro/3701台(累計 131万9925台)
  • Xbox One S/41台(累計 91462台)
  • Xbox One X/39台(累計 17338台)
  • New 2DS LL(2DS含む)/1188台(累計 167万4022台)
  • New 3DS LL/74台(累計 588万5066台)
  • PS Vita/20台(累計 586万2786台)
Pokémon at 1.36 million as per the early report.
Ring Fit at 28k, fad is over folks /s