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zroid

One Winged Slayer
The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
5,785
Canada
Yeah, we need to stop attacking a user for harmlessly cheering on their favourite platform. It's not like there isn't similar posts about the switch every week, and they go unnoticed.
I don't know who is attacking him because I haven't followed the thread fully, but I hope my post earlier wasn't construed as such. I didn't mean any harm by it.

And I agree, there's nothing wrong with said user's posts. They are a little bit amusing for obvious reasons, but it's not hurting anyone or preventing anyone from carrying on with their discussions. Generally speaking I think most people just ignore the posts if they don't see them as valuable, which is fine.
 

Sieglinde

Member
Feb 20, 2019
970
Also so glad FIFA 20 is bombing on Switch (not just in Japan), and even then it did way more that it deserved.
 

MesaEterna

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 28, 2017
906
You know why I'm here
Takashi Tezuka
dx1kpyv_d.jpg


Z6eU7ZP.gif

Better Tracker said:
10./04. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2019.06.28} (¥5.980) - 14.731 / 644.445 (-1%)
The KING manages to stay in the top 10, even with this week's influx of releases! That goes to show how powerful it is. Thankfully Nintendo realized this and has finally added friend play to it, rejoice!
P.S. パワーファイアフラワー
 

Limabean01

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,664
WA, australia
I don't know who is attacking him because I haven't followed the thread fully, but I hope my post earlier wasn't construed as such. I didn't mean any harm by it.

And I agree, there's nothing wrong with said user's posts. They are a little bit amusing for obvious reasons, but it's not hurting anyone or preventing anyone from carrying on with their discussions. Generally speaking I think most people just ignore the posts if they don't see them as valuable, which is fine.
Don't worry, you're fine. The posts are entertaining, of course. But to me it's similar to Rob2K19 and MrCafecito's entertaining posts: while they don't necessarily add super meaningful sales discussion, they're really fun to have around and just kinda liven up the threads. Nothing wrong with that at all!

I don't really understand how people get mad at his ability to turn even a poor week for PS4 into something positive or interesting, it's all in good spirit. It's not like he usually tries to bring down other platforms in doing so, but if/when that does happen, we can have normal conversation about it like we would if anyone else posted it.
 

Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,171
Switch Publisher Rankings: Famitsu Week 39, 2019
YXNf3t6.png

*Digital sales not included

1.
Square-Enix becomes the 4th publisher on Switch to sell one million units of software. Joining only Bandai Namco as the only two 3rd Party publishers to do so so far.
2. Microsoft Game Studios is hot on their trail to become the 5th publisher.
3. Hot damn, look at that image quality!
 
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Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
Famitsu Sales: Week 39, 2019 (Sep 23 - Sep 29)

01./00. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age S - Definitive Edition # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2019.09.27} (¥7.980) - 303.204 / NEW <60-80%>
02./00. [PS4] Code Vein # <RPG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.09.26} (¥8.200) - 60.843 / NEW <60-80%>
03./00. [PS4] Atelier Ryza: Ever Darkness & the Secret Hideout # <RPG> (Koei Tecmo) {2019.09.26} (¥7.800) - 53.428 / NEW <80-100%>
04./01. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening # <ADV> (Nintendo) {2019.09.20} (¥5.980) - 45.775 / 187.150 <60-80%> (-68%)
05./00. [PS4] Ys IX: Monstrum Nox # <RPG> (Nihon Falcom) {2019.09.26} (¥7.800) - 45.378 / NEW <60-80%>
06./00. [PS4] FIFA 20 # <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2019.09.27} (¥7.727) - 43.751 / NEW <40-60%>
07./00. [PS4] World War Z <ACT> (H2 Interactive) {2019.09.26} (¥5.480) - 27.872 / NEW <60-80%>
08./02. [PS4] Monster Hunter: World - Iceborne Master Edition <Monster Hunter: World \ Monster Hunter: World - Iceborne> # <ACT> (Capcom) {2019.09.06} (¥6.990) - 26.324 / 346.239 <80-100%> (-34%)
09./00. [NSW] Atelier Ryza: Ever Darkness & the Secret Hideout # <RPG> (Koei Tecmo) {2019.09.26} (¥7.800) - 25.538 / NEW <80-100%>
10./04. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2019.06.28} (¥5.980) - 14.731 / 644.445 <80-100%> (-1%)
11./05. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate # <FTG> (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} (¥7.200) - 13.272 / 3.279.652 <80-100%> (+8%)
12./08. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe <RCE> (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} (¥5.980) - 11.813 / 2.471.622 <80-100%> (+10%)
13./07. [NSW] Minecraft # <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios) {2018.06.21} (¥3.600) - 11.646 / 945.981 <80-100%> (+8%)
14./00. [NSW] Dead by Daylight: Definitive Edition <ACT> (3goo) {2019.09.26} (¥4.600) - 9.988 / NEW <60-80%>
15./00. [NSW] FIFA 20 <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2019.09.27} (¥5.093) - 9.593 / NEW <20-40%>
16./03. [PS4] eFootball Winning Eleven 2020 <SPT> (Konami) {2019.09.12} (¥7.600) - 9.309 / 86.822 <60-80%> (-52%)
17./09. [NSW] Fishing Spirits: Nintendo Switch Version <SPT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.07.25} (¥5.700) - 8.907 / 180.748 <80-100%> (-9%)
18./10. [PS4] Borderlands 3 # <RPG> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2019.09.13} (¥7.400) - 7.232 / 52.079 <80-100%> (-18%)
19./14. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild # <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥6.980) - 6.916 / 1.412.796 <80-100%> (+10%)
20./17. [NSW] Super Mario Party # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2018.10.05} (¥5.980) - 6.412 / 1.119.900 <80-100%> (+10%)
21./15. [NSW] Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! / Let's Go, Eevee! # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2018.11.16} (¥5.980) - 6.360 / 1.639.859 <80-100%> (+1%)
22./00. [NSW] Ninja Box <ADV> (Bandai Namco Games) {2019.09.26} (¥4.800) - 6.034 / NEW <40-60%>
23./18. [NSW] Splatoon 2 # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.07.21} (¥5.980) - 5.798 / 3.164.890 <80-100%> (+0%)
24./00. [NSW] Hakuoki: Shinkai - Tsukikage no Shou # <ADV> (Idea Factory) {2019.09.26} (¥6.300) - 4.848 / NEW <80-100%>
25./19. [NSW] Fire Emblem: Three Houses # <SLG> (Nintendo) {2019.07.26} (¥6.980) - 4.811 / 250.272 <80-100%> (-15%)
26./21. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe <New Super Mario Bros. U \ New Super Luigi U> <ACT> (Nintendo) {2019.01.11} (¥5.980) - 4.390 / 690.592 <80-100%> (+9%)
27./00. [PS4] Tropico 6 <SLG> (Square Enix) {2019.09.27} (¥7.980) - 4.368 / NEW <40-60%>
28./12. [NSW] Daemon X Machina <SLG> (Marvelous) {2019.09.13} (¥7.800) - 4.034 / 40.155 <60-80%> (-49%)
29./00. [NSW] Gunvolt Chronicles: Luminous Avenger iX <ACT> (Inti Creates) {2019.09.26} (¥3.818) - 3.943 / NEW <40-60%>
30./13. [PS4] Monster Hunter: World - Iceborne (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| (Download Card) # <ACT> (Capcom) {2019.09.06} (¥4.444) - 3.703 / 65.295 <80-100%> (-42%)

Top 30

NSW - 20
PS4 - 10
 

Saicho

Member
Oct 27, 2017
669
I don't get why people keep saying that certain user is being "attacked" for cheering for this favorite platform.

PS4 is doing great in Japan since it's still ahead of PS3 and has a lot of room for price cut.
Switch is not doing too well in Japan since it's still behind PS2 and 3DS and already cheaper than PS4.
DQXI S proves that 3rd party makes the right decision to not support the platform since one of the two biggest 3rd IP in Japan can only sell 300K FW. Look at MHW (the other biggest 3rd party IP in Japan), it sold almost 5 times FW on PS4 than DQXI on Switch on a smaller user base.

If anyone is making outlandish claims, the user deserves to be called out.
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
These sell-through show again how unreliable Amazon is when it's compared to entire Japan in case it will be used again in the future.
 

Limabean01

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,664
WA, australia
As expected, almost all evergreens rose the week after a big HW boost. The fact that this week was also so big should mean software stays high next week as well
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
I don't see any hype for the Disney Tsum-tsum game. It's the next billion road or it's just that being casual sales will come all of a sudden?

Edit: wait, it's just a download game? No retail version? That's why is missing all store rankings lol
It has a physical release. You never know if this type of games will catch on or not.
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
PS4 Iceborne bundles have started to run out of stock. If Sony doesn't have another temporary price cut in the meantime next big promotion for PS4 will be in December.
 

z0m3le

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,418
I think Monster Hunter World and securing Capcom in general for Sony was a big move. Had Switch of had a new Monster Hunter game, Capcom might not of only broken the 1 million software mark on the console, but been the 2nd best selling publisher on the platform.

I thought we would see a downward trend of Playstation hardware this gen and next gen, but now instead of 8-9 million for ps4 and 7-8 million for ps5, I expect a ~10 Million user base from the PS3 to stay intact in Japan for Sony.

Nintendo isn't very aggressive chasing a solution to Monster Hunter, so I assume Capcom will port MHW to the Switch shortly before they announce MHW2 for PS5 and PC. It's interesting that one game can have such a big impact, though I also think Square Enix is moving more towards multiplatform with their traditional Japan exclusives, which could be a small trade off.

I think the biggest question mark for these companies going forward is the performance gulf between Nvidia's next Tegra chip and PS5, because if the next Tegra chip out performs the PS4 by a good margin, I don't see a scenario where these big developers don't look at PS5 and Switch 2 as 4K and 1080p machines, giving them the same development pipeline like we saw in the west last gen with ps360. That's without streaming becoming an equalizer, which we've already seen with re7 and ac:odyssey for switch in Japan.

As for Switch sales, crazy. That 12 Million top end seems reachable this FY, but I guess it depends on the next couple weeks, because 3 weeks from now we have that Pokémon Switch lite system launching, Luigi's Mansion 3 following that and all of a sudden holiday sales hit.
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
Famitsu Sales: Week 30, 2016 (Jul 18 - Jul 24)
02./00. [PSV] Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of Dana # <RPG> (Nihon Falcom) {2016.07.21} (¥6.800) - 47.681 / NEW <60-80%>

Famitsu Sales: Week 22, 2017 (May 22 - May 28)

01./00. [PS4] Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of Dana <RPG> (Nihon Falcom) {2017.05.25} (¥6.800) - 30.764 / NEW <80-100%>

Famitsu Sales: Week 39, 2019 (Sep 23 - Sep 29)

05./00. [PS4] Ys IX: Monstrum Nox # <RPG> (Nihon Falcom) {2019.09.26} (¥7.800) - 45.378 / NEW
___

Famitsu Sales: Week 39, 2018 (Sep 24 - Sep 30)
03./00. [PS4] FIFA 19 # <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2018.09.28} (¥7.800) - 62.710 / NEW <60-80%>
08./00. [NSW] FIFA 19 # <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2018.09.28} (¥5.800) - 16.275 / NEW <40-60%>

Famitsu Sales: Week 39, 2019 (Sep 23 - Sep 29)

06./00. [PS4] FIFA 20 # <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2019.09.27} (¥7.727) - 43.751 / NEW <60-80%>
15./00. [NSW] FIFA 20 <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2019.09.27} (¥5.093) - 9.593 / NEW <20-40%>
 

hussien-11

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,315
Jordan
I've been predicting a permanent cut for years now and always wrong. Blows my mind sales haven't tanked yet at that price.

One last prediction, Sony will do their usual holiday promotion but make it officially permanent early 2020. Come on Sony prove me wrong again xD.
I don't think there will be a permanent price cut before next year's holidays.
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
September Famitsu sales
1. Dragon Quest - 303k
2. Zelda - 187k

September eShop sales
1. Zelda
2. Dragon Quest
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
Guys, let me spell it out for you. I'm an investor and I do this for a living. Nintendo actually has incredible disclosure compared to peers in the space. We will use FY3/2019 (last fiscal year ending March 2019) reported numbers.

Video game platform sales was JPY1,153Bn of which 1,028Bn was related to Switch (vast majority).

First, they report proportion of hardware sales to dedicated video game platform sales.
This was 58.4%, which implies 41.6% is software sales.

So 1,153Bn x 41.6% = 480Bn software sales.

Software sales include physical packaged software and digital software.
Digital software sales include a) downloadable version of packaged software, b) download-only software, c) add-on content and d) Nintendo Switch online.

What we are interested in is proportion of downloadable version of packaged software to total packaged software sales (in other words, what is digital / (digital + physical). That is the proportion of retailed games that are distributed digitally vs. physically.

Proportion of digital sales to dedicated video game software sales was 24.8%.

24.8% x 480 = 119Bn.

Physical software sales is hence, 480Bn - 119Bn = 361Bn (or 75.2% of software sales).

Then we want to isolate digital version of packaged software from rest of digital sales, luckily, Nintendo has just started disclosing this. Last fiscal year this was 67.6%.

So 67.6% x 119Bn = 80.4Bn = digital versions of packaged software.

So 80.4 (digital) + 361 (physical) = total packaged software sales of 441Bn.

Proportion of digital packaged software sales is roughly 18% (vs. total packaged software sales). Which is very low compared to Western publishers.

This is revenues, not units, the recognizes average selling price is higher for digital than for physical (physical copies sold are recognized at wholesale, i.e roughly $48 (after retail margin) out of $60 for a full-price game. Digital recognizes revenue at the $60 level (no retail margin). So recognized pricing for Nintendo is 30% or so higher on digital.

If we want an estimate on a unit level, we need to compare both at a wholesale level.

80.4/1.3=62Bn.

Packaged software sales at wholesale 62 + 361 = 423.

Digital ratio is hence around 15% in terms of units.

These are estimates, but best we have to go at. All numbers can be found here:
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2019/190730_2e.pdf

Hope it helps.
Thanks, this is great insight!

It will be interesting to see what vouchers do to that total. We might be able to compute something similar for the next report, assuming Nintendo counts vouchers as digital game sales, of course.
 

hussien-11

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,315
Jordan
Nintendo isn't very aggressive chasing a solution to Monster Hunter, so I assume Capcom will port MHW to the Switch shortly before they announce MHW2 for PS5 and PC. It's interesting that one game can have such a big impact, though I also think Square Enix is moving more towards multiplatform with their traditional Japan exclusives, which could be a small trade off.

I think the biggest question mark for these companies going forward is the performance gulf between Nvidia's next Tegra chip and PS5, because if the next Tegra chip out performs the PS4 by a good margin, I don't see a scenario where these big developers don't look at PS5 and Switch 2 as 4K and 1080p machines, giving them the same development pipeline like we saw in the west last gen with ps360. That's without streaming becoming an equalizer, which we've already seen with re7 and ac:odyssey for switch in Japan.

I believe that Monster Hunter World will not release on Switch this gen. it will be either a specialized version like MHP or it will skip Switch completely.
 

skullwaker

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,267
Ringfit is currently #2 on the Amazon chart.

Slowly raising my expectations on this one.

This could end up being another surprise hit this year. Obviously it won't touch Wii Fit sales but even a small fraction of that would make it a success.

If Fitness Boxing could do 50k+ then this will have no trouble clearing 100k at least.
 

StevieP

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,278
I don't get why people keep saying that certain user is being "attacked" for cheering for this favorite platform.

PS4 is doing great in Japan since it's still ahead of PS3 and has a lot of room for price cut.
Switch is not doing too well in Japan since it's still behind PS2 and 3DS and already cheaper than PS4.
DQXI S proves that 3rd party makes the right decision to not support the platform since one of the two biggest 3rd IP in Japan can only sell 300K FW. Look at MHW (the other biggest 3rd party IP in Japan), it sold almost 5 times FW on PS4 than DQXI on Switch on a smaller user base.

If anyone is making outlandish claims, the user deserves to be called out.

Fryshiftyeyes.gif
 

Łazy

Member
Nov 1, 2017
5,249
I don't get why people keep saying that certain user is being "attacked" for cheering for this favorite platform.

PS4 is doing great in Japan since it's still ahead of PS3 and has a lot of room for price cut.
Switch is not doing too well in Japan since it's still behind PS2 and 3DS and already cheaper than PS4.
DQXI S proves that 3rd party makes the right decision to not support the platform since one of the two biggest 3rd IP in Japan can only sell 300K FW. Look at MHW (the other biggest 3rd party IP in Japan), it sold almost 5 times FW on PS4 than DQXI on Switch on a smaller user base.

If anyone is making outlandish claims, the user deserves to be called out.
Lol.
 

Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule

Alt Account
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
506
Famitsu Sales: Week 31, 2017 (Jul 24 - Jul 30)

01./00. [3DS] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.07.29} (¥5.980) - 1.130.468 / NEW <60-80%>
02./00. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.07.29} (¥8.980) - 950.338 / NEW <80-100%>

Famitsu Sales: Week 39, 2019 (Sep 23 - Sep 29)

01./00. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age S - Definitive Edition # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2019.09.27} (¥7.980) - 303.204 / NEW <60-80%>

I wonder if an hypotetical MHW portable would do 300k or more, marketing push for this one was really really big.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
Famitsu Sales: Week 31, 2017 (Jul 24 - Jul 30)

01./00. [3DS] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.07.29} (¥5.980) - 1.130.468 / NEW <60-80%>
02./00. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.07.29} (¥8.980) - 950.338 / NEW <80-100%>

Famitsu Sales: Week 39, 2019 (Sep 23 - Sep 29)


01./00. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age S - Definitive Edition # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2019.09.27} (¥7.980) - 303.204 / NEW <60-80%>

I wonder if an hypotetical MHW portable would do 300k or more, marketing push for this one was really really big.
MHXX already did 300k on Switch so I would be inclined to say yes, easily.
 

z0m3le

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,418
I believe that Monster Hunter World will not release on Switch this gen. it will be either a specialized version like MHP or it will skip Switch completely.
The original rumor was MHP or MH5, but that seems optimistic. If it happens it could sell too well to ignore a MHW sequel on the Switch/Switch 2.
 

Sandfox

Member
Oct 25, 2017
24,743
Famitsu Sales: Week 31, 2017 (Jul 24 - Jul 30)

01./00. [3DS] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.07.29} (¥5.980) - 1.130.468 / NEW <60-80%>
02./00. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.07.29} (¥8.980) - 950.338 / NEW <80-100%>

Famitsu Sales: Week 39, 2019 (Sep 23 - Sep 29)


01./00. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age S - Definitive Edition # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2019.09.27} (¥7.980) - 303.204 / NEW <60-80%>

I wonder if an hypotetical MHW portable would do 300k or more, marketing push for this one was really really big.
It would probably depend on Capcom making additions as well as a push like DQ got, which wouldn't happen.
 

Dolorean

Member
Sep 20, 2019
134
I did something similar a couple months back using last quarter's numbers to get to a digital revenue ratio of 26%:

Nobody corrected me so I'm assuming my math wasn't wrong. So either their digital revenue split increased from 18% to 26% after last FY (which is possible) or one of us made a mistake (also possible).

You are right that digital revenue split increased in Q1 this year, both are correct. You are right on the digital revenue ratio increasing to 26%. But due to seasonality, it should be compared to the same quarter the year prior. Generally speaking, Q3 (Q4 calendar year) is the lowest quarter for digital split across the industry (due to mainline releases with higher % physical and due to Christmas.

The digital ratio increased from 16% to 26%, i.e. a 10 percentage point increase year over year. For the industry as a whole, the rule of thumb has been ~5 percentage points increase per year (although that seems to have been accelerating lately).

I think some of the rapid adoption year over year in Q1 will have to do with Switch Online launch in September 2018. When you subscribe you have a higher propensity to download (vs. if you don't have Switch Online). I wouldn't be surprised if digital penetration is a little bit lower next year as we start to lap the Switch Online intro.
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
Just popping back in to say that I think Bandai Namco's focus on "family" products is a whole lot of bust with a few booms.

Bringing their more teen/core (anime) focused games to Switch would probably be a safer investment. They seem to have a higher bar at the lowest end and popular IPs like DBZ and One Piece could definitely pull similar numbers to even the more successful family games they have put out.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
Just popping back in to say that I think Bandai Namco's focus on "family" products is a whole lot of bust with a few booms.

Bringing their more teen/core (anime) focused games to Switch would probably be a safer investment. They seem to have a higher bar at the lowest end and popular IPs like DBZ and One Piece could definitely pull similar numbers to even the more successful family games they have put out.
They should do both imo.
 

K Samedi

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,990
This could end up being another surprise hit this year. Obviously it won't touch Wii Fit sales but even a small fraction of that would make it a success.

If Fitness Boxing could do 50k+ then this will have no trouble clearing 100k at least.
You mean lifetime? 100k would be a bomb for this kind of game from Nintendo. With them marketing it with a popular figure means they expect big things from it. It should be able to move more than a million units.
 

cw_sasuke

Member
Oct 27, 2017
26,405
I think Monster Hunter World and securing Capcom in general for Sony was a big move. Had Switch of had a new Monster Hunter game, Capcom might not of only broken the 1 million software mark on the console, but been the 2nd best selling publisher on the platform.

I thought we would see a downward trend of Playstation hardware this gen and next gen, but now instead of 8-9 million for ps4 and 7-8 million for ps5, I expect a ~10 Million user base from the PS3 to stay intact in Japan for Sony.

Nintendo isn't very aggressive chasing a solution to Monster Hunter, so I assume Capcom will port MHW to the Switch shortly before they announce MHW2 for PS5 and PC. It's interesting that one game can have such a big impact, though I also think Square Enix is moving more towards multiplatform with their traditional Japan exclusives, which could be a small trade off.

I think the biggest question mark for these companies going forward is the performance gulf between Nvidia's next Tegra chip and PS5, because if the next Tegra chip out performs the PS4 by a good margin, I don't see a scenario where these big developers don't look at PS5 and Switch 2 as 4K and 1080p machines, giving them the same development pipeline like we saw in the west last gen with ps360. That's without streaming becoming an equalizer, which we've already seen with re7 and ac:odyssey for switch in Japan.

As for Switch sales, crazy. That 12 Million top end seems reachable this FY, but I guess it depends on the next couple weeks, because 3 weeks from now we have that Pokémon Switch lite system launching, Luigi's Mansion 3 following that and all of a sudden holiday sales hit.

People still bringing up a potential MHW port on Switch when Capcom said it wouldnt happen and there are Sony exclusive marketing agreements that would prevent them from maxing out the potential of a Monster Hunter on Switch ?

If MH on Switch happens it will be a exclusive take on the fifth Generation titles - that Nintendo can market, produce bundles for and so on. Nothing of that would be possible with MHW.
Just popping back in to say that I think Bandai Namco's focus on "family" products is a whole lot of bust with a few booms.

Bringing their more teen/core (anime) focused games to Switch would probably be a safer investment. They seem to have a higher bar at the lowest end and popular IPs like DBZ and One Piece could definitely pull similar numbers to even the more successful family games they have put out.

Always fascinating to see pubs greenlighting exclusive "bombas" for Nintendo systems instead of using those resources to get their more popular games on Switch and multiplattform ready.

The team could have prepared the groundwork for games like Kakarott or Tales of Unite coming to Switch - instead they worked 18-24 months on a game no one will every play or care about.

lol