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Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
mods shouldn't be monitoring these threads or be paying special attention to them. if there's trolls or people you suspect are alt accounts of previously banned people, just report them.
I know from retired moderators and administrators that Media Create threads were watched closely and we just read from another mod that the team is still monitoring these threads weekly, what is it anyway.

And who says there haven't been reports for them.
 

Deleted member 10737

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
49,774
I know from retired moderators and administrators that Media Create threads were watched closely and we just read from another mod that the team is still monitoring these threads weekly, what is it anyway.

And who says there haven't been reports for them.
huh, it doesn't feel like the threads get special moderation, lol.
 
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Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
I don't know what happens lately and what special moderation means but I know there were ex administrators here and at NeoGaf being fans of Media Create threads that watched them carefully.
 

AniHawk

No Fear, Only Math
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,163
so...

this is anecdotal, but some of the stuff i've heard about cc2 is that their experience is mainly:

they are mostly not independent. this means their internal data, if they have access to sales numbers, would come from a company like bandai namco or capcom. in that case, their experience could be skewed towards the sales expectations from larger publishers and also because of how they work (contract-work), they may need to have a game reach 100k for them to make back a budget, or for that project to be worth it.

perhaps with the release of fuga, they may come to an understanding of what a game needs to become profitable.

i dunno. matsuyama dropping truth bombs about the industry as a whole makes about as much sense as some dude from kemco.
 

Refyref

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,025
so...

this is anecdotal, but some of the stuff i've heard about cc2 is that their experience is mainly:

they are mostly not independent. this means their internal data, if they have access to sales numbers, would come from a company like bandai namco or capcom. in that case, their experience could be skewed towards the sales expectations from larger publishers and also because of how they work (contract-work), they may need to have a game reach 100k for them to make back a budget, or for that project to be worth it.

perhaps with the release of fuga, they may come to an understanding of what a game needs to become profitable.

i dunno. matsuyama dropping truth bombs about the industry as a whole makes about as much sense as some dude from kemco.
That's what I was guessing earlier in the thread, and it would make sense considering their history of not being a video game publisher until this year. (They actually have been publishing things such as books and CDs for a long time, but those are different markets.) Of course, the thing isn't that 100k is way above the target for plenty of small games, but is also way below target for many larger games (which is IIRC how we even got into this topic), including some of their own work.
If all of their games needed just 100k to make back their budget, SE dropping them from FF7R would have been the biggest mistake ever. :V
 

zroid

One Winged Slayer
The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
5,785
Canada
Is Monkey Ball hd port going tonsell more than Sonic hd port?
when you put it that way...

aiich-aich.gif
 

RennanNT

Member
Dec 2, 2020
593
Assuming Matsuyama didn't say something that asinine, what he probably meant was:

- In order to sell worldwide, a game need to sell 100k at minimum as a rule of thumb, to pay for localization, marketing, distribution, etc.

- Of the 400+ games released yearly, only 10~20% sell enough in Japan to guarantee it will not be in the red if it bombs ww, which is why many stay Japan-only.

- The sub 100k games which gets ww release and risk ending in the red are being funded by the more successful ones.

And then the article conveyed something completely different, like a universal budget and 80~90% of the games being in the red.
 
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hussmk

Member
Oct 29, 2017
127
How do you all think Forspoken will do in Japan?

Honestly, if I didn't already know SE was making it, I wouldn't have guessed it was a Japanese game at all. I don't see it having much appeal over there, and with PS5's abysmal software sales so far, I'm expecting it to do 100k LTD at best.
 
Dec 21, 2020
5,066
Quite often there are drive by posts, literally telling us that Japanese sales don't matter, saying something like this in a Japanese sales thread can be considered trolling. When someone is specifically talking about a games performance in Japan and as a respond you get is to ignore Japan but to look at West instead, there often clearly isn't an intellectually honest discussion in mind, but the desire to deflect, damage control and consolewar retoric.

And the elephant in the room still is that a worldwide view favours the argument that a Switch Version would have been beneficial even more so than just looking at Japan. After all Switch is the best selling system in US for years now, 33 consecutive months streak as a best selling videogame system is a record breaking result, it also sells great in Europe and in several Asian countries, and we all know how popular "Look at Asia" was before we got actual sales charts from some Asian countries that favoured Switch.

But the argument of "look at West" is made to say the opposite, that Switch should not be supported or that it isn't needed. Someone can't be more transparently disingeneous than with this line of reasoning, despite all the evidence of Switchs strong hardware and software sales performance.
Of course those do happen and I have seen those types of posts, however there has been discussion by regulars that can sometimes go from or allude to "this is a Japanese sales thread" and "the western sales can save it whenever it is convenienT. It doesn't help the discussion since it just is a mismatch looking through different lens of something that won't make sense. If we simply seclude it to a vacuum of a convo for all instances, then this could be avoided. But to exclude or remove on or the other whenever convenient does not help anyone really imo.
That's fair, and yea there really isn't a great solution. I certainly don't think referencing world wide sales potential should be barred or anything- it's absolutely a consideration for many companies. But on the other hand, it can easily be used as a dismissive weapon to shut down any talks of underachieving in Japan- which, at the end of the day, is primarily what we are focused on.

I would add that I don't think there is any disagreement at the major major, big budget franchises and them skipping Switch- final fantasy, kingdom hearts, mainline RE. But when you get into stuff like Tales, I think it's valid to question ignoring the Switch market (which, afterall, has proven very healthy for JRPG's worldwide).
I think with resect to ToA, it stretches more into company politics than anything which we are essentially discussing: should they ignore a platform for their vision?

And then whether we agree or disagree with that vision
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
How do you all think Forspoken will do in Japan?

Honestly, if I didn't already know SE was making it, I wouldn't have guessed it was a Japanese game at all. I don't see it having much appeal over there, and with PS5's abysmal software sales so far, I'm expecting it to do 100k LTD at best.

I think it should do relatively well.

PlayStation's big budget cinematic action adventure games have done pretty well, and it's essentially one of those by one of the most premier developers in Japan who is guaranteed to give it a massive marketing push.
 
Jan 30, 2021
225
My two cents on the passive-aggressiveness and whatever else in Media Create threads is that people need to learn to be a bit more laid back. If (almost) everyone gets aggravated because of the smallest things (almost) all the time, then it's no surprise that discussions go south on a rather regular basis.

When you can construct proper arguments, it will show over time that you know what you are talking about. It would be problematic if the majority of the regulars in this thread refused to believe in sales data, but that's far from being the case. That's why logic and reason usually prevail, so the occasional bumps in the road are really only minor obstacles. Of course there are topics where both sides of the argument are about equally valid, so it happens that there's more than one reasonable conclusion from the same set of data.
 

Tbone5189

Succ-essor
Member
Mar 25, 2020
4,919
Week 37 Hardware Sales (both in Year 5)

67.1k — NSW (Y5)
24.7k — 3DS (Y5)


LTD at that time

3DS —> 19.151.813
NSW —> 21.118.660
 

hussmk

Member
Oct 29, 2017
127
I think it should do relatively well.

PlayStation's big budget cinematic action adventure games have done pretty well, and it's essentially one of those by one of the most premier developers in Japan who is guaranteed to give it a massive marketing push.

I assume you mean games like Horizon, Uncharted 4, etc...? In theory, Forspoken should be able to do 200k+ easily, but the shrinking PS ecosystem and declining sales of Western games have left me quite pessimistic about its performance. The writing in particular seems to be aimed primarily at Western audiences, and I'm don't think there's even a JP dubbed version of the latest trailer.

I predict the game will not have a massive marketing push in Japan.
 
Oct 25, 2017
15,172
People are too obsessed here about good faith and bad faith. Treat all discussion as good faith and let the mods do their job. Bad faith actors don't last long. A lot of us here have been here long enough to notice that. We're just discussing data and sometimes strange company decisions. Where the discussion goes frankly doesn't matter too much. The only annoying part is the passive aggressive pseudo-console warring which happens in all sales threads if left unchecked and it's best to just skip out or message a mod if it gets too bad.
Frogs have a lifespan of at least two years.

Lots of things are flowing out from others that I've been holding in for a while now and I'm glad it's being said. This shit is why I mostly just read the threads instead of being active in it like I usually am because of the same exact problems every week from the same people.
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
I assume you mean games like Horizon, Uncharted 4, etc...? In theory, Forspoken should be able to do 200k+ easily, but the shrinking PS ecosystem and declining sales of Western games have left me quite pessimistic about its performance. The writing in particular seems to be aimed primarily at Western audiences, and I'm don't think there's even a JP dubbed version of the latest trailer.

I predict the game will not have a massive marketing push in Japan.

I think it would be strange not to give it a big marketing push, and 200k strikes me as too low.

Although maybe they're counting on it being even bigger than FFXV outside of Japan?
 

Ishaan

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,702
I get the feeling that Forspoken's overall visual aesthetic and character design might work against it in Japan. This could just be because of the early footage, but it doesn't look like it commits very strongly to a specific style, unlike, say, Ghost of Tsushima or even God of War. Nothing about it so far makes it look visually distinct.
 
Oct 25, 2017
15,172
It's clear that a lot of what Forspoken is aiming for is not resonating for a domestic audience, but yes time will tell if that stays the same, whether or not things ramp up in a way that makes it stand out in the region or if they bother marketing it in Japan at all.
 

MysticGon

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 31, 2017
7,285
This is what happens when Nintendominates a region. You start having interventions. :p
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
I get the feeling that Forspoken's overall visual aesthetic and character design might work against it in Japan. This could just be because of the early footage, but it doesn't look like it commits very strongly to a specific style, unlike, say, Ghost of Tsushima or even God of War. Nothing about it so far makes it look visually distinct.

I don't think I can disagree with that to be honest, I would struggle to describe it.
 
Oct 25, 2017
15,172
And again, it's a PS5 exclusive at least domestically (I'm not exactly sure if it'll be available on regional Steam). At this point in time we've seen several titles worldwide on PS5 sell at least millions (RE Village, Spiderman Miles Morales, etc) that rarely hit 70k lifetime, with a true exclusive like Demon's Souls doing even less. Tales of Arise in particular is basically the most successful one at 50k out the gate. It has been discussed before, but the discrepancy between hardware sales and software sales are too vast to not assume a significant portion of the million PS5s shipped are being sold outside Japan. I don't think that will change into 2022 for 200k to not be a struggle.
 
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ZSaberLink

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,678
Any thoughts on the fact that Tales of Arise opened better sales wise than Resident Evil Village? This isn't just a userbase argument because since PS4 opening sales are better as well. From what I can tell, both are pretty well-reviewed games as well and both released on PS4 / PS5 in Japan.
 

Lite_Agent

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,572
Somewhere. I think.
I hope we get an Ace Attorney announcement there ;-;

Probably too early. Could see something announced in early 2022 for a release the same year, unless they just logo announce a new game at TGS.

Would love to be wrong, but heh... Still, after the success of the Trilogy (no idea how TGA is faring, but Capcom expectations are fairly low so there shouldn't be any nasty surprises there), I'm more confident in the future of the series than I was before the leaks.

Then again, a brand new game would have bigger budget (and therefore higher expectations) and would be a much more important endeavour than mere ports, so who knows what Capcom are planning for the future of the series.
 

Deleted member 63122

User requested account closure
Banned
Jan 16, 2020
9,071
Any thoughts on the fact that Tales of Arise opened better sales wise than Resident Evil Village? This isn't just a userbase argument because since PS4 opening sales are better as well. From what I can tell, both are pretty well-reviewed games as well and both released on PS4 / PS5 in Japan.
I think the reason for that is that Japan doesn't like First person RE
 
Oct 25, 2017
15,172
Any thoughts on the fact that Tales of Arise opened better sales wise than Resident Evil Village? This isn't just a userbase argument because since PS4 opening sales are better as well. From what I can tell, both are pretty well-reviewed games as well and both released on PS4 / PS5 in Japan.
One would assume Arise had a better marketing push in Japan than Village did. But Village also debuted lower than the Remakes so that's also a factor.
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
Any thoughts on the fact that Tales of Arise opened better sales wise than Resident Evil Village? This isn't just a userbase argument because since PS4 opening sales are better as well. From what I can tell, both are pretty well-reviewed games as well and both released on PS4 / PS5 in Japan.

The fact that Arise is just Tales of but bigger budget might benefit it more than Village furthering a direction Japanese consumers weren't keen on.
 
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Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
Since the 10 months anniversary PS4/PS5 posts went unnoticed because we had the big issue with the massive misinformation I spread in case it didn't happen understandable the period of light criticism for Sony in Japan is over.

Nothing will fall down easily and everything will be judged strictly, from sales to the decisions of companies. Wii U was buried 10 meters below ground by now and we still have PS5 at the 10th floor with worse performance.
 
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Gartooth

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
8,440
Any thoughts on the fact that Tales of Arise opened better sales wise than Resident Evil Village? This isn't just a userbase argument because since PS4 opening sales are better as well. From what I can tell, both are pretty well-reviewed games as well and both released on PS4 / PS5 in Japan.

Resident Evil moved away from Japanese tastes far more than Tales, and it goes beyond the platform choice. Capcom went with a 1st person perspective, de-emphasized the main character in a series known for big name characters, went with horror over action, among other things.
 

Caiops

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,107
Its impressive that RE is still selling decent after turning into a first person and removing legacy characters. Ethan is not the kind of character japanese audience likes.

I mean, the remakes are still doing well, still dropping in sales tho
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
36,399
About ~25 hours into Tales and I really like it despite some mediocre things.

so hopefully it does well. Won't do much in Japan of course.
After being uninterested in Tales for over a decade and finding Tales generally mediocre, it's definitely quality.
 

Quasi

Banned
Aug 24, 2021
702
Since the 10 months anniversary PS4/PS5 posts went unnoticed because we had the big issue with the massive misinformation I spread in case it didn't happen understandable the period of light criticism for Sony in Japan is over.

Nothing will fall down easily and everything will be judged strictly, from sales to the decisions of companies. Wii U was buried 10 meters below ground by now and we still have PS5 at the 10th floor with worse performance.
Isn't there still a decent chance that software numbers will miraculously recover once Japanese people can actually buy the console instead of having them be scalped to overseas people? Or is that just wishful thinking?

Its impressive that RE is still selling decent after turning into a first person and removing legacy characters. Ethan is not the kind of character japanese audience likes.

I mean, the remakes are still doing well, still dropping in sales tho
Ethan is not the kind of character any audience likes. Especially compared to characters like Jill and Leon.
 

TiagoCosta

User requested ban
Banned
Aug 3, 2018
2,844
Forspoken looks very unappealing to me, considering I only play Jp games these days it feels more like a western than anything.

Also got a aura of tech demo all over it which doesn't help.

I perdict it will do 100-150k at best, physical Japan sales wise.

meanwhile judgment was 2nd in both ps4 and ps5, August digital sales according to psn.
 

Deleted member 98338

User requested account closure
Banned
Jun 11, 2021
112
Any thoughts on the fact that Tales of Arise opened better sales wise than Resident Evil Village? This isn't just a userbase argument because since PS4 opening sales are better as well. From what I can tell, both are pretty well-reviewed games as well and both released on PS4 / PS5 in Japan.

Both the games are pretty much just trying to hang around with the previous games sales. Re Sales with popular characters and third person will do better.

As CVFreak as said earlier, there is a likely chance Re4 Remake might do better than Village



Since the 10 months anniversary PS4/PS5 posts went unnoticed because we had the big issue with the massive misinformation I spread in case it didn't happen understandable the period of light criticism for Sony in Japan is over.

Nothing will fall down easily and everything will be judged strictly, from sales to the decisions of companies. Wii U was buried 10 meters below ground by now and we still have PS5 at the 10th floor with worse performance.

Who has really kept PS5 at 10th floor baring 1-2 members ? Pretty much everyone here knows Playstation software is bad with terrible attach ratios. We pretty much had playstation eradicated thread , switch 30/30 threads and posts and discussions have been done several time about playstation 5 poor performance.

No one here has kept at 10th Floor

Its impressive that RE is still selling decent after turning into a first person and removing legacy characters. Ethan is not the kind of character japanese audience likes.

I mean, the remakes are still doing well, still dropping in sales tho


There is nothing impressive about selling decent


And again, it's a PS5 exclusive at least domestically (I'm not exactly sure if it'll be available on regional Steam). At this point in time we've seen several titles worldwide on PS5 sell at least millions (RE Village, Spiderman Miles Morales, etc) that rarely hit 70k lifetime, with a true exclusive like Demon's Souls doing even less. Tales of Arise in particular is basically the most successful one at 50k out the gate. It has been discussed before, but the discrepancy between hardware sales and software sales are too vast to not assume a significant portion of the million PS5s shipped are being sold outside Japan. I don't think that will change into 2022 for 200k to not be a struggle.

Totally depends how much they ship hardware during holidays


About ~25 hours into Tales and I really like it despite some mediocre things.

so hopefully it does well. Won't do much in Japan of course.
After being uninterested in Tales for over a decade and finding Tales generally mediocre, it's definitely quality.
Yeah the tales team have really taken feedback and have improved the game in much modern way.
 
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Chris1964

Chris1964

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Oct 25, 2017
11,155
Isn't there still a decent chance that software numbers will miraculously recover once Japanese people can actually buy the console instead of having them be scalped to overseas people? Or is that just wishful thinking?
Everything will be judged according to what it sells, not what it would sell under other conditions.

For the disaster PS5 is in Japan it's treated more than well.
 
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