• Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.
  • We have made minor adjustments to how the search bar works on ResetEra. You can read about the changes here.
Status
Not open for further replies.
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
If you think this thread is heated wait until you see what's following. There was a long period of calmness here.
 

JustALurker

Member
Feb 12, 2019
1,018
Like I'm sorry but dude not only adding nothing to the conversation but also comes out as a troll a lot of times. I still remember him spent like multiple threads talking about why square enix shouldn't make an exclusive final fantasy for switch when literally no ones had talked about it, then went on to ignore everyone who asked him.
To be fair, there was a discussion around the possibility of making a separate final fantasy game for Switch (essentially putting the FF name on the game).
 

Deleted member 10737

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
49,774
Always such passive aggressiveness in these threads... I always like reading the analysis of select posters, but it is hard to read past the tone of the discussions here often being so toxic.
i feel the same recently. i always enjoy reading these threads but the passive aggressive tones and toxicity is getting a bit much.
 

Seiez

Member
Oct 29, 2017
409
We appear to be going round and round in circles. People are operating under the premise that this is a Japanese sales thread, so the only thing that "matters" in our discussions is the Japanese market. However, I'm advocating for the idea that the global market is incredibly important to any game developer or platform holder in general (which should be obvious), and that this cannot be ignored when discussing Japanese developers and their support.

Yes, having the support of the vast majority of Japanese publishers is important in Japan itself, but on a global scale having the backing of the heavy hitters from Square, Namco, Capcom, Sega et al is obviously a prospect that would be enticing to any platform holder, and that probably is a long-term goal of Nintendo's as well. It has nothing to do with their performance in Japan, because the Japanese market has effectively been theirs for several years now.

That's the last I'm going to say on the subject.
I also kinda don't really get your point. If your point is that Nintendo would really like to have games from AAA franchises like FF, RE or KH than that is like the safest opinion to have. And I don't really think than anybody refutes this opinion. People don't support the idea that it is on Nintendo to chase after those IPs because they somehow are missing out. Just as there are clever people in every company there probably are some in Nintendo as well. And the current trajectory is proving Nintendo more right than SE, Sega or BN.

Nintendo is successful without compromising anything. Losing brand value in Japan (and Asia) is more severe as gaining ground in the west in most cases. Most big gaming brands have a big revenue stream outside of gaming and most of this money comes from Asian territories. Even most mobile efforts are Asian centric for these brands. Losing brand recognition and a dedicated fanbase will bite them in the end. Every mobile pitch for an mobile tales game will target a smaller pool of fans despite needing more and more investment. You can only keep milking the legacy of these brands for as long as you have people who played during the heydays of these franchises.

Being successful and being as successful as you could be are two different pair of shoes.

And yes Nintendo doesn't need these games to be in a dominating position in Asia. But they also don't need them to rival sony in the west. Sony on the other hand needs them, without gaining any ground in Japan despite probably doing deals left and right or courting certain individuals.
 

CeroMiedo

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,337
To be fair, there was a discussion around the possibility of making a separate final fantasy game for Switch (essentially putting the FF name on the game).
If anything that's even worse, iirc the whole thing was basically using it as a base for a separated ff multiplat game, then for some reason it was spinned into ff exclusive for switch
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
Tbh it's gonna get a bit worse when other bigger games start to release.

Final Fantasy 16 is the one to watch out for next year lol.

Nah, games like Final Fantasy, Resident Evil and Elden Ring are a known quantity in terms of being actual AAA productions that are multi-million sellers outside of Japan.

The reason Tales is so "controversial" is because as a mid-tier franchise(just about million sellers) whose last release was a PS3 game in 2016(!) it was hypothetically perfectly positioned to include Switch in the future release plans.
 

Aostia82

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,366
i feel the same recently. i always enjoy reading these threads but the passive aggressive tones and toxicity is getting a bit much.


You should have been here when me and Oregano were critic toward Nintendo for not having been able to capitalize on the 3ds market leading position in Japan, having basically zero third party support ready for Switch first year

;p
 

AquaWateria

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,533
Nah, games like Final Fantasy, Resident Evil and Elden Ring are a known quantity in terms of being actual AAA productions that are multi-million sellers outside of Japan.

The reason Tales is so "controversial" is because as a mid-tier franchise(just about million sellers) whose last release was a PS3 game in 2016(!) it was hypothetically perfectly positioned to include Switch in the future release plans.

Even then if Final Fantasy doesn't even reach a million on Playstation there will be a controversy.

A million sales is a lot especially for Final Fantasy even if the bulk of its sales come from the western markets. I'd argue it will be even more controversial than Tales.
 

ACL

Member
Nov 18, 2017
1,304
The interesting thing about Tales of Arises worldwide launch performance is that it seems like PC/Steam seems to be the actual main driving force in improved sales performance, while on consoles it seems more stagnant in comparison. We also need to be a bit more precise, Steam/PC Sales aren't Western but worldwide sales with a notable Asia component.

No, the fact is simply that PlayStation as a platform has struggled since PS3, and what we're seeing now has been a long time coming. I don't think anyone could have predicted when precisely it was going to happen, because it isn't as though every Nintendo platform since the DS has been successful either, but it was always inevitable that Nintendo would eventually be the only major player because the Japanese market's tastes were clearly changing and Nintendo was one of the only companies responding to it. All it was ever going to take was a stable platform that was close enough in specs to PS machines, and for Nintendo to do outreach.

That's why I said "effectively". The complete dominion over Japan is something that has happened with Switch, but the seeds for the transition were planted a while ago.


During PS3s lifecycle, there was PSP a system that sold similar to PS1 and PS2 in Japan. Even PSV, despite Sonys strategic move to push PSV developers and users to PS4 had a notable niche in Japan.

What we see nowadays regarding Playstation in Japan was neither expected nor unavoidable, the situation is dire and worse than even the worst case speculated scenarios. Which ist kind of incredible considering what the majority of the videogame industry tried to support and push and that the alternative was mainly backed by Nintendo themselves in the beginning. It seems like a lot of people still have not grasped how severe the decline actually is. We are approaching PS5s first anniversary and not a single game sold over 100k units so far.

Sure If you don't respond to market trends you might have a hard time in the long run, in other words, the decline of 3rd Party IPs popularity was avoidable, by actually supporting these trends, instead of trying to sabotage and push against these trends. To a certain extent it worked against Wii but obviously they pushed their luck a bit too much, and the result ist in plain sight with Playstations ecosystem in Japan.
 
Last edited:
Dec 21, 2020
5,066
To steer conversation elsewhere I suppose, Metroid Dread releases on October 8th, which is a Friday, as does the OLED Model of the switch

Make predictions of what you think the hardware and software will be by the next MC thread, which would be, AKA Week 40, October 4 to October 10.

Lost Judgement releases week 38, September 20 to September 26, and it also releases on a Friday.
 
Oct 25, 2017
15,172
Like let's be real here. A lot of this animosity has been building up for weeks, but every thread, the nuance on why some things are being reacted to differently is always lost on the same exact posters and the tenacity to re-explain the context necessary to prevent even more bad actor arguments has been dwindling, because it's just been happening so much. It's exhausting, and frustrating, to have these sort of situations overshadow actual conversation in here a lot of the time because a couple of people cannot fathom the actual nuances of this particular discussion, because they cannot or choose not to acknowledge the specific circumstances or why or how, and they only focus on the extremes of it, extremes that aren't even being discussed, and base the whole debate on that.

Some of you honestly can't keep thinking that anyone here thinks Switch would be the only console instead of simply being added to the viable platforms. Like that was never the argument.

Anyways I think Dread would probably break 80k.
 

Mpl90

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,215
At this point, the solution should be to ignore as much as we can the actors who start and engage in passive aggressive discussions and toxicity, while also reporting to the moderation such behaviors.

If we discuss with them, we make them feel more important than what they actually are, especially when their arguments can go as down as " a follower of mine said this game isn't good, why is it close to a million lol" and especially in the current Japanese market situation where discussions about support decisions are welcomed but they cannot ignore the context of the market itself and pretend we're still in an era where the PlayStation ecosystem had no issues in getting plenty of content. The side-effect is what the past few posts have well demonstated: potential newcomers being scared by the mood of the thread and personally I think it'd be great to see even more people moved by genuine interest joining these weekly threads.

Let the posters in bad faith talk to the void, since we've already seen that they aren't here to listen but to bring up toxicity. And don't forget to report them when they go too far. That may be the recipe to make these threads more welcoming. Alongside good discussions and market analysis of course.
 

Arynio

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,235
The conversation about Tales is asinine. Yes, the game had a nice debut WW and will surely become (has already become) a profitable endeavour. But also yes, the game sold poorly in Japan (more or less the same as the previous franchise low -depending on digital- in spite of the much increased budget). That is the truth irrespective of all this 'others did worse' propaganda being thrown out in order to paint ToA in a better light. And finally yes, a Switch version would have taken it to another level in Japan, while also helping WW.

Is there any consensus here on whether Switch 2021 > Switch 2020? You'd think that if the OLED gives it any sort of bump, it's a done deal right? Pokemon remakes should also move the needle somewhat.

competition is neck and neck right now, hard to say tbh.

If you mean Famitsu tracking, it's possible and even likely. Media Create would be a different story since Famitsu week 1 2022 was actually week 53 2021 for most other trackers, which means 300k less units in 2021 and 300k more in 2020.

What really matters is shipments, though. I believe shipments will remain more or less flat, with a decent chance of a slight increase depending on Q4 sales.
 

K Samedi

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,990
To be fair, there was a discussion around the possibility of making a separate final fantasy game for Switch (essentially putting the FF name on the game).
Yeah there was a lot of discussion about it and I'm a big supporter of that argument. I think exclusives work well for Switch when it comes to big games like FF. They will have trouble porting over 16 but another separate numbered entry for Switch would do well and do very big numbers.
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
Tales of Arise
Lost Judgment
Kuro no Kiseki

All are heading for decline from previous entries and for some of them maybe not small.

Since these are less than one month away unless there are last moment surprises a decline 20-40% can be expected. Sega and Falcom look to be at more difficult position.
Go to 30-40% decline for Lost Judgment. For Kuro no Kiseki it's still early but it doesn't look it will be smaller than 30%.
 

Mpl90

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,215
The PS title that will backfire most with all crazy expectations it had will be Demon Slayer.


There's low interest for Metroid in Japan, anything over 150k at shipments will be surprise.

If Amazon.co.jp is currency providing an accurate representation of the market as a whole, I think that an even bigger point of discussion for Demon Slayer is going to be the difference between the PS4 and the PS5 version.

Now, about Metroid: the past few days on Amazon made me more hopeful the game can break 100,000 units sold in its first week alone.
 
Jan 30, 2021
225
User Warned: Hostility
We appear to be going round and round in circles. People are operating under the premise that this is a Japanese sales thread, so the only thing that "matters" in our discussions is the Japanese market. However, I'm advocating for the idea that the global market is incredibly important to any game developer or platform holder in general (which should be obvious), and that this cannot be ignored when discussing Japanese developers and their support.

Yes, having the support of the vast majority of Japanese publishers is important in Japan itself, but on a global scale having the backing of the heavy hitters from Square, Namco, Capcom, Sega et al is obviously a prospect that would be enticing to any platform holder, and that probably is a long-term goal of Nintendo's as well. It has nothing to do with their performance in Japan, because the Japanese market has effectively been theirs for several years now.

That's the last I'm going to say on the subject.
It's not like an extension to the global scale changes anything in a significant way. Switch has won 33 NPD months straight, so in North America it's once again third parties who would need Nintendo more than Nintendo needs them.

While Nintendo isn't quite as successful in Europe as elsewhere in the world, the same applies to the Japanese third party companies we are talking about. So once again we have the very same scenario where it would be more urgent for third parties to put games on Switch than for Nintendo to moneyhat more third party games.

So overall I am not sure where exactly you want to go with this. Perhaps I misjudged you and you actually have an ulterior motive along the lines of "All you guys are saying that Nintendo is winning, but are they really winning when many of the big games are still skipping their platform?" That may be why it's going in circles.
 
Dec 21, 2020
5,066
I notice with Nintendo platforms that they don't mind things with third parties as they end up on their system regardless at some point in time, sans cod.

In some way, shape or form the third parties they generally miss come later to a newer audience
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
Even then if Final Fantasy doesn't even reach a million on Playstation there will be a controversy.

A million sales is a lot especially for Final Fantasy even if the bulk of its sales come from the western markets. I'd argue it will be even more controversial than Tales.

Nah, FF is kind of analogous to PS itself in that a little bit more decline won't mean anything in the grand scheme of things. FFXVI selling 600k vs XV's 1m isn't that much of a difference on the global scale when we're talking 8m+
It's not like an extension to the global scale changes anything in a significant way. Switch has won 33 NPD months straight, so in North America it's once again third parties who would need Nintendo more than Nintendo needs them.

While Nintendo isn't quite as successful in Europe as elsewhere in the world, the same applies to the Japanese third party companies we are talking about. So once again we have the very same scenario where it would be more urgent for third parties to put games on Switch than for Nintendo to moneyhat more third party games.

So overall I am not sure where exactly you want to go with this. Perhaps I misjudged you and you actually have an ulterior motive along the lines of "All you guys are saying that Nintendo is winning, but are they really winning when many of the big games are still skipping their platform?" That may be why it's going in circles.

Nah, that's BS. Ishaan hasn't said anything remotely like that.
 
Jan 30, 2021
225
Nah, that's BS. Ishaan hasn't said anything remotely like that.
There are people who go a lot smarter about it than the average person. Not saying that this is definitely the case here, but I can't help being at least a little bit suspicious.

The only thing I am sure about is that it requires more observation to come to a solid conclusion here, unlike with some other posters where it's transparent what's up.
 

Tbone5189

Succ-essor
Member
Mar 25, 2020
4,919
True, but I'm still skeptical on how much that translates into general game sales when it releases in Japan. I'd say even 300k is a little generous.

so even 300k might be a tough goal for DS? When it was first announced we had so many 500k-1mil sales predictions, reality hit and then I think now we are at 300k-400k for it. So maybe even lower the bar further?
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,740
Italy
If it doesn't translate into game sales, it says more about the game and the publisher than the franchise itself.

The first One Piece Warrior got close to 1m on PS3 for instance.

There's not a rule predicting how much a mange/anime franchise would perform in the video gaming sector, especially when it has yet to get its first tie-in. Of course, it wildly depends on a variety of factors (platform choice, quality, genre, release date).

We have seen wildly popular properties selling underwhelmingly as video games, like Bleach, Conan and Fullmetal Alchemist.
 
Last edited:
Jan 30, 2021
225
Yah you are, you post is prety straight foward and the funny thing is nobody accused you of anything after you previous post regarding Sony titles being vanity projects but you felt the need to do it against another user that shares different opinion, at this point you are the one argue with bad faith.
I don't recall posting anything about Sony titles in this thread.
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
I don't think MHA's set of games ever got beyond 100k each in Japan. And those released at its general height.
Tsukihime just released and belongs at not what you call mainstream genre.

When first Pirate Warriors came Musou audience wasn't at its top moments either but PS3 was at its peak years, if you can call those low total sales of platform peak.

The inability to capture a wider audience with a so popular IP has more to do with CC2 being so stubborn.
 

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
There are people who go a lot smarter about it than the average person. Not saying that this is definitely the case here, but I can't help being at least a little bit suspicious.

The only thing I am sure about is that it requires more observation to come to a solid conclusion here, unlike with some other posters where it's transparent what's up.

That doesn't give you carte blanche to throw accusations at people like that carte blanche just because you don't agree with them.
 
Jan 30, 2021
225
Yah you are right, that was another use, apology for that.
No problem.

Regarding my accusation against Ishaan, I'll say that if it's off-base, then time will prove it. It's just a fact of life that there are repeatedly situations where you may have a wrong opinion of someone or someone has a wrong opinion of you, but that's often just a matter of giving it time and then a course correction happens automatically.
 

ACL

Member
Nov 18, 2017
1,304
Nah, FF is kind of analogous to PS itself in that a little bit more decline won't mean anything in the grand scheme of things. FFXVI selling 600k vs XV's 1m isn't that much of a difference on the global scale when we're talking 8m+


Nah, that's BS. Ishaan hasn't said anything remotely like that.

A bit more of a decline... like it's nothing... In Japan Final Fantasy was a 2-4 Million seller on PS1 and PS2 and FF13 was close enough to 2million, rather than 1 million. FF would have been a comfortable 10million plus worldwide seller if it wasn't for how SQEX significantly dropped the ball in Japan, to brush it off like it doesn't matter is disingeneous. Just look at the performance of FF7R Integrate on PS5, to see what such an attitude can lead to. This kind of performance was unthinkable until very recently.
 

Ishaan

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,702
So overall I am not sure where exactly you want to go with this. Perhaps I misjudged you and you actually have an ulterior motive along the lines of "All you guys are saying that Nintendo is winning, but are they really winning when many of the big games are still skipping their platform?" That may be why it's going in circles.

No, I'm saying they're doing remarkably well, but that doesn't mean one should take it for granted that their work is done and they can afford to rest easy. They can and should constantly be striving for more support and more allies within the industry, and a large part of that does involve getting these bigger brands like FF onto their platforms, because those will make a difference everywhere around the world (including, if given the chance, Japan).

Unlike Sony and Microsoft, Nintendo isn't scooping up droves of other developers, nor is it their style to throw money around. In an increasingly consolidated industry, they need to establish their most critical relationships now, while the Switch makes a good case for third-party developers to support them. They've never been in a better position, either as a software developer or a platform holder, and they need to make the most of it while they have the leverage.

Once again, the hostility and territorial nature of these threads constantly surprises me.
 
Jan 30, 2021
225
No, I'm saying they're doing remarkably well, but that doesn't mean one should take it for granted that their work is done and they can afford to rest easy. They can and should constantly be striving for more support and more allies within the industry, and a large part of that does involve getting these bigger brands like FF onto their platforms, because those will make a difference everywhere around the world (including, if given the chance, Japan).

Unlike Sony and Microsoft, Nintendo isn't scooping up droves of other developers, nor is it their style to throw money around. In an increasingly consolidated industry, they need to establish their most critical relationships now, while the Switch makes a good case for third-party developers to support them. They've never been in a better position, either as a software developer or a platform holder, and they need to make the most of it while they have the leverage.

Once again, the hostility and territorial nature of these threads constantly surprises me.
Is there any indication that Nintendo is not trying to make the most of it right now? In the specific case of Final Fantasy we know that Sony has been making big efforts to associate it with PlayStation, so that particular IP is basically off limits for the time being.

I apologize for the final paragraph in my previous post directed at you.
 

Deleted member 63122

User requested account closure
Banned
Jan 16, 2020
9,071
I feel Nintendo has been making more moves with third parties this gen, but they aren't the AAA moves that Sony or to a point Microsoft does.
 

ArkhamFantasy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,550
A bit more of a decline... like it's nothing... In Japan Final Fantasy was a 2-4 Million seller on PS1 and PS2 and FF13 was close enough to 2million, rather than 1 million. FF would have been a comfortable 10million plus worldwide seller if it wasn't for how SQEX significantly dropped the ball in Japan, to brush it off like it doesn't matter is disingeneous. Just look at the performance of FF7R Integrate on PS5, to see what such an attitude can lead to. This kind of performance was unthinkable until very recently.

Whoa, what kind of massive mismanagement happened that caused it to drop from 4 million to 2 million on PS1?
 
OP
OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
The title that released very recently and shows that genre limitations can be bypassed when the IP is popular is Age of Calamity. Half million in Japan for a Musou game (on a Nintendo and not Sony system) is something that will take a long time to happen again, if it ever happens.
 

Aostia82

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,366
Nah, FF is kind of analogous to PS itself in that a little bit more decline won't mean anything in the grand scheme of things. FFXVI selling 600k vs XV's 1m isn't that much of a difference on the global scale when we're talking 8m+


Wait: are you seriously saying that if FFXVI sell 600k eith a 40% decline from previous entry, everything is fine? :/

Now I get why Arise Japanese sales are a great victory, in your opinion :D
 
Status
Not open for further replies.