Media Create Sales: Week 2, 2020 (Jan 06 - Jan 12)

[Zedark]

Pokemon S/S and Smash Ultimate should have been crossed the 4 Mio. mark right now if we include digital sales. Very impressive. Splatoon 2 will be the next one.

Click to shrink...

Smash is over 4M without any possible doubt, as its digital sales were over 500k (550k) as of the end of 2018 already. Sash technically only did 640k digitally - but that is because we only know week 1 digital estimates. Almost certainly, it is above 4M as well, possible way above that number, even.

I know it's early, but back to the discussion from last week about Q1 Switch sales being potentially up YOY, does this hardware performance suggest that will remain the case? I know we have no NSMBUDX this year but I still think the Lite + Pokemon hype + Ring Fit can keep it up YOY until the Animal Crossing effect hits.

Click to shrink...

Last year also had the announcement of Pokémon SwSh, which was accompanied by some big hardware upticks.

For now, though, there is no reason other than the established factors (better battery Switch SKU, Pokémon pre-release hype, RFA hype, and Switch Lite complementary HW boost) to explain this difference, and these factors should remain stable. Therefore, my expectation is that Switch will stay up YoY before AC launches, and even has a chance to stay up YoY almost every week except maybe the weeks right after the Pokémon Direct in 2019.

Edit: And, as Chris said, the anticipation for AC is key as well.

 

[hiska-kun]

I don't think 570 000 copies sold at retail can qualify as "mediocre" in Japan. It's very good.
And the game must be at least at 700 000 including digital. It can reach 1 million lifetime imo.

Click to shrink...

That would mean a drop from Luigi's Mansion 2.

 

[Deleted member 37233]

Am I missing something here or do we not have hardware numbers yet?

Click to shrink...

Since this week and last week are combined, it is impossible to know the values for those rows.

Click to shrink...

We have the number for week 1 and 2 combined, but not for the individual weeks.

 

[ikaben]

I'm actually impressed with those HW Switch sales. Although, I think I wasn't that impressed last year when it dropped a bit too much.

Q1 seems much healthier than last year tho.

Famitsu Sales: Week 2, 2020 (Jan 06 - Jan 12)

03./04. [NSW] Minecraft # <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios) {2018.06.21} (¥3.600) - 15.845 / 1.208.747 (-66%)
06./03. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe <RCE> (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} (¥5.980) - 14.100 / 2.725.304 (-73%)


Famitsu Sales: Week 2, 2019 (Jan 07 - Jan 13)

07./04. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe <RCE> (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} (¥5.980) - 16.780 / 2.112.625 <80-100%> (-74%)
09./05. [NSW] Minecraft # <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios) {2018.06.21} (¥3.600) - 13.515 / 589.631 <80-100%> (-74%)

#Evergreens

(It seems that Minecraft benefited from the Lite)

Click to shrink...

This is just another level. And to think that MK8 rarely gets price discounts.

 

[Mickagau]

That would mean a drop from Luigi's Mansion 2.

Click to shrink...

When all is set and done the drop will be pretty marginal. We must wait for digital numbers in order to get a more precise idea (3DS had most of its sales at retail)
But anyway, the game is plenty successful.

 

[BlueManifest]

Looks like switch is already on track to sell more in 2020 than 2019

 

[Tialo]

I am very curios if Switch HW can manage to make 2020 its peak year. Q1 will clearly be up YoY, but the period from august to october will be very hard to beat this year.

 

[Skittzo]

Well NSMBUDX was released during Week 2, 2019 and sales are much higher in 2020 for this same week with no new release and not enough Ring Fit stock yet, sooo...

Click to shrink...

For some reason I thought that launched at the end of January, my mistake. Anyway I was also considering the momentum from the launch in the weeks that followed, but yeah it looks like that will easily be overcome this year.

Tbh I am floored by these 2020 results. Thanks to a stronger 3rd party output than last year, yeah I am now expecting the Switch to be up YoY even before AC.

We'll know for sure next week imo.

Click to shrink...

Yeah it's a pretty massive and surprising result. I think it's just the overall momentum from late last year carrying Q1 a bit more heavily than just Smash alone did last year.

 

[Zedark]

Switch sales 2019, Week 3-11 (lead up to this year's Animal Crossing launch):
Week 3: 71.672
Week 4: 51.556
Week 5: 66.448
Week 6: 61.042
Week 7: 64.313
Week 8: 49.139
Week 9: 66.453
Week 10: 67.624
Week 11: 55.478

Total week 3-11 = 553,725 units.

Since Switch is currently 92,294 units ahead of 2019, it needs to do 461,431 units between week 3 and week 11 in order to stay ahead of 2019 before Animal Crossing launches. That amounts to an average of 51,270 units per week.

 

[sfortunato]

That would mean a drop from Luigi's Mansion 2.

Click to shrink...

A drop with respect to Luigi's Mansion doesn't qualify Luigi's Mansion 3 sales mediocre.

Indeed, the game will not drop as much from the previous entry in Japan. Luigi's Mansion 2 overperformed in Japan.

Plus, digital sales have a higher mark-up and Western sales are likely to be bigger than the predecessor.

 

[schuelma]

Yeah it's a pretty massive and surprising result. I think it's just the overall momentum from late last year carrying Q1 a bit more heavily than just Smash alone did last year.

Click to shrink...

I think Ring Fit Adventure could be playing a small role as well.

 

[Marukoban]

Switch sales 2019, Week 3-11 (lead up to this year's Animal Crossing launch):
Week 3: 71.672
Week 4: 51.556
Week 5: 66.448
Week 6: 61.042
Week 7: 64.313
Week 8: 49.139
Week 9: 66.453
Week 10: 67.624
Week 11: 55.478

Total week 3-11 = 553,725 units.

Since Switch is currently 92,294 units ahead of 2019, it needs to do 461,431 units between week 3 and week 11 in order to stay ahead of 2019 before Animal Crossing launches. That amounts to an average of 51,270 units per week.

Click to shrink...

Switch had really good sales early last year.
It'll be impressive if it can top those numbers.

 

[Zedark]

Week 1+2 Famitsu numbers:

• Switch／252776（累計 1059824）
• Switch Lite／148352（累計 1193735）

Goes to show that the Lite is still a significant factor, despite the OG being the most important SKU sales-wise. Looks like Nintendo's Lite strategy is paying off is a different manner than several of us expected, but paying off it sure is!

 

[Zedark]

I think Ring Fit Adventure could be playing a small role as well.

Click to shrink...

'Small role' may be underselling it. Remember this week:

+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+
|System |  This Week |  Last Week |  Last Year |     YTD    |  Last YTD  |     LTD     |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+
| NSW # |     69.438 |     54.067 |     38.448 |  2.787.964 |  1.935.990 |   9.677.510 |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+
| NSW L |     18.248 |     19.246 |            |    352.171 |            |     352.171 |
|  NSW  |     51.190 |     34.821 |     38.448 |  2.435.793 |  1.935.990 |   9.325.339 |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+

This was the week after Ring Fit launched. Stock was there in decent quantity (only a 6% drop from its first week), and the hardware got a clear boost with no other explanation in sight. What's more, the boost was purely due to the OG model growing a lot, with the Lite basically flat. That gives quite some credence to the idea that people are buying Switches for Ring Fit. Now that the average hardware number is going down compared to the holidays, RFA's impact should grow compared to those holiday weeks, and its contribution to the growth in hardware could be significant.

 

[Chris1964]

Famitsu stopped tracking Vita as expected.

Super Robot Wars X could be in top 10.

 

[Zedark]

A drop with respect to Luigi's Mansion doesn't qualify Luigi's Mansion 3 sales mediocre.

Indeed, the game will not drop as much from the previous entry in Japan. Luigi's Mansion 2 overperformed in Japan.

Plus, digital sales have a higher mark-up and Western sales are likely to be bigger than the predecessor.

Click to shrink...

Western sales are without a doubt bigger than LM2. Don't be surprised if by the end of December, it's close to the lifetime sales of LM2 at 6.16M already, if not ahead of it.

But the comment was aimed squarely at its Japanese performance, so let's keep the above outside the picture for the moment. LM3 sales at retail should definitely still be well below LM2 by week 33 (which corresponds to week 1 2014 for LM2, and gives both games a full holiday period to perform). But digital is significant: from numbers provided by Celine, digital for LM2 probably around/below 100k. LM3, on the other hand should see a digital share of 25% or thereabouts due to vouchers. So, by that week 33 I mentioned, LM3 could be close to or over 1M. If that is indeed the case, then LM3 would be almost flat compared to LM2 (which was indeed a huge performance in Japan). Lifetime, LM3 has a slight chance of outselling LM2. It needs to ship 1.30M or more in order to do that, which is possible but not at all easy.

Conclusion: it'll be a wait and see, but LM3 should be able to get quite close to LM2 lifetime sales. The following weeks will be interesting in terms of determining a baseline for LM3 in the coming weeks: can it keep selling at a steady pace or will drop to the low 20's or maybe even out of the top 30? That remains to be seen.

 

[Chris1964]

Famitsu mentions top 20 is only Switch again.

 

[Deleted member 41980]

Does anyone know where Game Data Library obtained 667,234 sales for the 3DS nintendogs game? My last recording was 602,954 in Famitsu's 2012 annual report. I have a few others off as well so I'm wondering if I'm missing a 3DS report.

 

[schuelma]

Famitsu mentions top 20 is only Switch again.

Click to shrink...

when was the last time that happened?

 

[Lelouch0612]

Does anyone know where Game Data Library obtained 667,234 sales for the 3DS nintendogs game? My last recording was 602,954 in Famitsu's 2012 annual report. I have a few others off as well so I'm wondering if I'm missing a 3DS report.

Click to shrink...

Maybe they included the Famitsu digital estimates ?

Go in the Games by system section in order to have the retail and "digital" figures separated.

 

[IronTed]

Amazing numbers for Switch HW. Being up YoY right before AC launches would be very impressive.

 

[Nevermeltice]

When are we getting the top 100?

 

[Deleted member 41980]

Maybe they included the Famitsu digital estimates ?

Go in the Games by system section in order to have the retail and "digital" figures separated.

Click to shrink...

It's odd because most of the numbers agree. Some other examples of differences are Paper Mario: Sticker Star, Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Gates to Infinity, Mario Tennis Open, Style Savvy Trendsetters, and Pokemon Rumble Blast.

 

[Chris1964]

when was the last time that happened?

Click to shrink...

Last week

 

[schuelma]

Last week

Click to shrink...

sorry..I meant do we know the last time we had consecutive top 20 for one platform.

 

[Pancakes R Us]

Famitsu stopped tracking Vita as expected.

Super Robot Wars X could be in top 10.

Click to shrink...

Rest in peaches, Vita. Vita for life.

 

[Chris1964]

sorry..I meant do we know the last time we had consecutive top 20 for one platform.

Click to shrink...

Famicom

 

[cvxfreak]

Apologies in advance for any clerical errors, mistranslated game titles, etc.

Famitsu 2019 Top 100

1. Pokemon SWSH - 2,988,134
2. Smash Ultimate - 1,092,397 / 3,453,052
3. KH3 - 861,226
4. Super Mario Maker 2 - 800,504
5. NSMBU Deluxe - 747,589
6. MK8D - 628,712 / 2,659,009
7. Minecraft (Switch) - 620,894 / 1,145,939
8. Luigi's Mansion 3 - 505,998
9. Super Mario Party - 498,857 / 1,263,710
10. Ring Fit Adventure - 495,639
11. DQXIS - 463,699
12. Pokemon LGP/E - 431,629 / 1,685,306
13. MHW Iceborne Master Edition - 417,462
14. RE2 - 403,833
15. Splatoon 2 - 378,340 / 3,252,760
16. Fishing Spirits (Switch) - 336,995
17. BOTW - 301,657 / 1,481,349
18. Yokai Watch 4 - 291,878
19. Fire Emblem Three Houses - 273,905
20. SEKIRO - 267,666
21. Death Stranding - 262,827
22. Pro Baseball Spirits 2019 (PS4) - 259,227
23. Link's Awakening - 250,947
24. Persona 5 Royal - 2444,050
25. Ace Combat 7 - 220,195
26. Jikkyo Powerful Pro Baseball (Switch) - 210,259
27. CoD Modern Warfare (PS4) - 209,081
28. Mario & Sonic Tokyo 2020 - 195,128
29. Days Gone - 192,900
30. DMC5 - 189,121
31. Yoshi's Crafted World - 186,065
32. Shin Sakura Taisen - 161,288
33. Taiko Drum Master (Switch) - 150,167 / 420,582
34. Super Mario Odyssey - 147,340 / 2,047,546
35. Super Dragon Ball Heroes World Mission - 145,720
36. JUMP FORCE - 130,293
37. Disney Tsum Tsum Festival - 125,498
38. DQ Builders 2 (Switch) - 124,837 / 290,255
39. eFootball Winning Eleven 2020 - 119,715
40. Kirby Star Allies - 119,059 / 783,874
41. Harvest Moon Mineral Town (Switch) - 118,082
42. Anthem - 117,418
43. Division 2 - 116,023
44. Doraemon Nobita no Bokujo Monogatari - 112,104
45. Super Robot Wars T (PS4) - 105,703
46. Code Vein - 93,236
47. Earth Defense Force: Iron Rain - 88,600
48. Ghost Recon Breakpoint - 86,781
49. SD Gundam G Generation Cross Rays (PS4) - 86,739
50. DQ Builders 2 (PS4) - 86,434 / 250,316
51. Tokyo 2020 Olympics (Switch) - 81,491
52. Labo 04: VR Kit - 81,440
53. Pokemon USUM - 80,309 / 2,513,588
54. MHW Iceborne - 76,369
55. One Piece World Seeker - 76,235
56. FIFA 20 (PS4) - 74,142
57. Raiser no Atelier - 72,091
58. Pro Baseball Spirits 2019 (PSV) - 70,763
59. Catherine Full Body - 69,804
60. Y's IX Monstrum NOX - 68,428
61. GO VACATION (Switch) - 67,801 / 80,842
62. Tales of Vesperia REMASTER (PS4) - 66,648
63. Mario Tennis Ace - 66,512 / 442,878
64. Battlefield V (PS4) - 65,155 / 209,464
65. Borderlands 3 (PS4) - 64,568
66. Fit Boxing - 62,414 / 66,193
67. Rune Factory 4 Special - 62,412
68. KH HD 1.5+2.5 Remix - 62,274 / 293,248
69. SD Gundam G Generation Cross Rays (Switch) - 62,173
70. Nier Automata GOTY - 59,848
71. Minecraft (PS4) - 59,435 / 420,774
72. Far Cry New Dawn - 58,924
73. Star Wars: Jedi Fallen Order - 55,062
74. JUDGE EYES - 54,586 / 278,634
75. Astral Chain - 54,105
76. Super Robot Wars T (Switch) - 53,810
77. Super Bomberman R Smile Price Collection - 53,720 / 62,222
78. MHW Best Price - 52,846 / 76,511
79. World War Z - 52,693
80. FFX/X-2 Remaster (Switch) - 52,670
81. Chocobo's Mystery Dungeon Everybody! (Switch) - 52,098
82. DAEMON X MACHINA (Switch) - 49,099
83. MHGU Best Price - 48,977 / 55,223
84. Attack on Titan 2 Final Battle - 48,904
85. FFXII (Switch) - 48,348
86. PS VR Worlds - 48,088 / 101,907
87. Animal Crossing: New Leaf w/ amiibo - 47,880 / 472,862
88. GTAV (New Price) - 47,777 / 52,664
89. 13 Sentinels: Aegis Rim - 47,446
90. Yokai Watch 4++ (Switch) - 46,896
91. Captain Toad (Switch) - 45,177 / 201,507
92. Yakuza 5 (PS4) - 44,593
93. Sumikko Gurashi Beginning Student Life - 44,181
94. MHW Best Price Re-release - 44,111
95. FIFA 20 (Switch) - 43,956
96. Yakuza 4 (PS4) - 43,782
97. Azur Lane Cross Wave (PS4) - 43,585
98. Tales of Vesperia REMASTER (Switch) - 42,816
99. Dead by Daylight - 41,682 / 59,353
100. Chocobo's Mystery Dungeon Everybody! (PS4) - 41,354

 

[TheSentry42]

Is this the first time only Switch games have occupied all top 10 spots on the charts?

Or is this a pretty regular occurrence now?

 

[Chris1964]

Famitsu 2019 Top 100

Click to shrink...

Any mention of top publishers, market value or hardware sales?

 

[Zedark]

Is this the first time only Switch games have occupied all top 10 spots on the charts?

Or is this a pretty regular occurrence now?

Click to shrink...

It's happened several times in the last month or so. It even seems we have a Switch top 20 for the second week in a row.

 

[dean_rcg]

Is this the first time only Switch games have occupied all top 10 spots on the charts?

Or is this a pretty regular occurrence now?

Click to shrink...

Just the past few weeks. PS4 has some big hitters over the next few weeks and months so it'll change.

 

[cvxfreak]

Any mention of top publishers, market value or hardware sales?

Click to shrink...

Don't see it. The issue skips straight into the Top 30 for the final week of December.

 

[jesusraz]

DQ Builders 2 kept on trucking nicely for Switch, but the legs were totally cut off for Vesperia Switch :/

 

[BlueManifest]

Switch sales 2019, Week 3-11 (lead up to this year's Animal Crossing launch):
Week 3: 71.672
Week 4: 51.556
Week 5: 66.448
Week 6: 61.042
Week 7: 64.313
Week 8: 49.139
Week 9: 66.453
Week 10: 67.624
Week 11: 55.478

Total week 3-11 = 553,725 units.

Since Switch is currently 92,294 units ahead of 2019, it needs to do 461,431 units between week 3 and week 11 in order to stay ahead of 2019 before Animal Crossing launches. That amounts to an average of 51,270 units per week.

Click to shrink...

Easy

 

[Rouk']

Famitsu 2019 Top 100

17. BOTW - 301,657 / 1,481,349
18. Yokai Watch 4 - 291,878

Click to shrink...

Imagine telling people 5 years ago that a Zelda game in its third year would outsell the launch year of a new mainline Yokai Watch

Congratulations Nintendo and Level-5 for making this happen !

 

[hiska-kun]

At retail*. We still don't how big is its digital share.

Click to shrink...

According to Famitsu, retail shipment for Luigi's Mansion 3 was between 632k and up to 698k by the end of 2019.
Just to keep this on mind when Nintendo numbers come by the end of the month.

 

[Pokémon]

DQ Builders 2 kept on trucking nicely for Switch, but the legs were totally cut off for Vesperia Switch :/

Click to shrink...

If I remember correctly there were shortages for the Switch version because SE like always underestimated demand and they couldn't or didn't want to restock the game fast enough.

Edit: I meant to write Bandai Namco but my mind slipped, sorry.

 

[Lelouch0612]

If I remember correctly there were shortages for the Switch version because SE like always underestimated demand and they couldn't or didn't want to restock the game fast enough.

Click to shrink...

Tales of is a BN game

 

[DarkDetective]

That 278k number for last year is incorrect. Famitsu has Week 1+2, 2019 at 225.698 + 83.136 = 308.834.

Week 1+2, 2020 is 401.128, which gives a YoY growth of 29,9%.

Assuming an identical sales split between Week 1 and Week 2 as in 2019 would give us 293.147 units sold in Week 1, and 107.981 units sold in Week 2.

Assuming Famitsu's Week 1 sales are identical to Dengeki's Week 1 data of 273.420 units, that would indicate a YoY growth of Week 1 of 21,1%. Week 2 would be 127.708 units, indicating a YoY growth of 53,6%.

Obviously both calculations are incorrect. We will already come to a better estimate when Dengeki drop their Week 2 data, but that would still be an estimate/guess.

Life would be so much easier if Famitsu took their job as a data provider a bit more serious...

 

[Lelouch0612]

[PS4] Y's IX Monstrum NOX - 45,378 / 68,428 [2019]

[PSV] Ys VIII : 47,681 / 78,070
[PS4] Ys VIII : 30,764 / 63.966


[PS4] CoD Modern Warfare - 209,081 / NEW [2019]

[PS4] Call of Duty: Black Ops IIII - 479.511 / NEW [2018]


[NSW] Super Dragon Ball Heroes World Mission - 145,720 [2019]

[3DS] Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission X : 92.809 / 213.926

 

[Zedark]

Obviously both calculations are incorrect. We will already come to a better estimate when Dengeki drop their Week 2 data, but that would still be an estimate/guess.

Click to shrink...

Famitsu have always released individual weeks' data later on anytime they did these shenanigans, right? We should at some point get those individual numbers I think.

 

[Nevermeltice]

19. Fire Emblem Three Houses - 273,905

Quite sad it didn't do too hot.

 

[Lyrick]

Apologies in advance for any clerical errors, mistranslated game titles, etc.

Famitsu 2019 Top 100
1. ...

10. Ring Fit Adventure - 495,639

Click to shrink...

So the best selling new IP of 2019 was a fitness game?

I'm okay with this.

 

[fiendcode]

19. Fire Emblem Three Houses - 273,905

Quite sad it didn't do too hot.

Click to shrink...

It did fine. I can vouch for that.

 

[Chris1964]

I'll check later for comparisons but 100k+ hardware at week 2 isn't something that happens often.

Nintendo will provide eShop top 30 for 2019 soon.

 

[Pokémon]

Tales of is a BN game

Click to shrink...

You are right and my brain did an oopsie lol.

 

[Mpl90]

It did fine. I can vouch for that.

Click to shrink...

*ba dum tss*

 

[Skittzo]

So the best selling new IP of 2019 was a fitness game?

I'm okay with this.

Click to shrink...

Half fitness, half JRPG. All genius.

 

[Limabean01]

This week's Famitsu issue includes the Top 100 for 2019. Hopefully we'll get the full ranking translated soon enough. A few numbers from Hokanko (not linking it here, I won't subject you to their disgusting Sony-bias)

- Switch took 9 places of the Top 10
- Only two million sellers (Pokemon and Smash)
- KH3 3rd at 861,000
- MHW:I 13th at 417,000
- RE:2 14th at 404,000
- Sekiro 20th
- Pro Baseball Spirits 22nd
- P5R 24th
- Ace Combat 7 25th

Super Robot Wars T - 106 (PS4); 54k (NSW)
SD Gundam - 87k (PS4); 62k (NSW)
Atelier Ryza - 72k (PS4); out of Top 100 for NSW (100th sold 41,354)
TOV - 67k (PS4); 43k (NSW)
FIFA 20 - 74k (PS4); 44k (NSW)

Astral Chain - 54k
Daemon x Machina - 49k

Click to shrink...

astral chain being that close to dxm is a crime. Probably had a much bigger digital share at least.

Sorry, what I meant was that would it remain up YOY in Q1 before AC hits. That was the discussion that we were having, me and I think Lelouch0612 . I think this performance in weeks 1 and 2 suggests that it probably will be, but it does lack the Smash hype and the NSMBUDX release in January 2019. It can possibly make up for that with Pokemon hype and Ring Fit though.

It'll definitely be up YOY for Q1 as a whole, that's not in question.

Click to shrink...

Honestly, it's looking like Pokémon SWSH hype is somehow even bigger than the smash hype was at this time last year. Pkmn sold more in week 2, despite being released like a month earlier. That, coupled with the fact that NSMBUDX didn't really push much hardware, tells me that its not even a question whether 2020 Q1 (pre AC) will be higher than 2019.